Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[MasterofGrond]

who cares about mitigating risk. If Jacob trouba received a literal asset back in TYOOL 2024, dougie could die tomorrow and get a 2nd

all that’s gonna happen with the Dougie money if you trade him speculatively is another Palat caliber contract

Don’t trade good players away. I don’t care if the return is less (or negative) if we have to trade him a year late. Don’t make the team worse if you don’t have to.

 

[dgibb10]

Isn't Palat's buyout after this season not awful and very manageable for the last year?

Also I feel like discussing what we're going to do in the offseason with ~50 games left and hopefully a good playoff run to boot is a bit premature?

Little parallel I noticed too is we were making fun of the Rags in the other threads for dumping the vets who committed there long term and apparently imploding the lockerroom but wouldn't we be kind of doing the same thing?

2.5 mill, 3.5 mill, 1.5 mill, 1.5 mill.

It gets you 3 mill AAV to replace him, which likely gets you a Palat level player. And then you eat money for 2 years after he expires.

 

[Hisch13r]

Isn't Palat's buyout after this season not awful and very manageable for the last year?

Also I feel like discussing what we're going to do in the offseason with ~50 games left and hopefully a good playoff run to boot is a bit premature?

Little parallel I noticed too is we were making fun of the Rags in the other threads for dumping the vets who committed there long term and apparently imploding the lockerroom but wouldn't we be kind of doing the same thing?

Palat buyout doesn't make much sense. 3.5 on the cap next year. Then 2.5 then another 2 years of 1.5. I feel like someone would take him half retained if need be and you'd be better off doing that.

Never too early to prep for the future.

The other side of that coin if the Knights. The Knights are the most cutthroat team in the league and consistently have success and won a Cup. Even if Drury broke them down with the moves, the Rangers bigger issue was that the team wasn't all that great to begin with

 

[Zippy316]

You can want to move dougie.

But you better have an actual plan to spend the money, which you guys don't seem to have, or an understanding of the available money we have.

An actual reasonable price and location you're sending him to.

An understanding of how ridiculously low his real dollar cost is the final years of his deal if dumping is needed after next year.

The impacts of any term you give to UFAs.

And you better understand what it will do to our PP and our EV play.

And understand the impact of what happens if our PP reverts to 20% or so.
And the risk and impact of what happens if Kovy-Siegs do what Siegs Marino did in 23-24 after EXCELLENT 22-23 years.

Guess which one of these guys is dougie and which is Makar over the last 3 yearsView attachment 946388

Fitzgerald’s spending spree this summer with Dillon and Pesce almost assuredly meant that he was planning to move on from Hamilton after 25-26 when Nemec got his next deal. Kovacevic was supposed to be #7, Nemec was supposed to slowly work his way into an NHL regular this year and next, and then got a big payday after next year.

It just so happened that Kovacevic is way better than anticipated that the Devils might be able to do it a year sooner. Is there risk involved? Absolutely. But in a cap world, it’s almost better to move a guy one year too soon than one year too late. Even moreso when you have Nemec/Casey who should be pushing for a spot next year.

Extending Kovacevic and trading Hamilton frees up 5 million to reallocate to the forward group, assuming Nemec is the sixth D. That frees up the space to go after Duchene, Palmieri, Hall, Benn, Giroux, etc. in the summer or receive a similar player back via trade.

On a quick glance around the league, Hamilton to Dallas seems like a place he may waive an NMC and RHD is a need. I would understand a deal centered around Marchment + for Hamilton especially with the cap savings we would get. Dallas may see that as a way to open up a spot for Stankoven/Bourque for a guy they can’t afford to extend after 25-26

 

[Hisch13r]

Some of the Fitz stuff minus lots of ums and you knows.

I think there are guys that are playing extremely well and the I think there are guys that know they need to find their game and help contribute any way they can.

There are certain guys here that are buzzing offensively. When our PP doesn't score and if one of our top lines doesn't score I think we need more from other people quite honestly contributing without naming any names. There's a reason we've been shut out five times cause when the first line or second line doesn't score a goal or our PP doesn't score, we don't score. We need guys to step up and start producing.

On Nemec - It's never easy when you're reassigning a kid literally after playing with the big club last year but the reality is it's a meritocracy man, like we're here to win and if you can't help contribute you're not going to play. If he's not playing he's not sitting, we have the luxury to send him down.

There was a demand to go down and work on the things you need to work on you know, be better aware of your surroundings and people behind you. It's not just about offense, we don't need offense, we need guys to defend and be hard to play against and really, really thrive in that area. The coaches down there know exactly what they need to do.

I think if you're not looking to Nemec for offense then you shouldn't have Nemec. While I do agree with the idea that he definitely needs to work on his game defensively I also just don't see the two way dynamo in him that they probably want.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

who cares about mitigating risk. If Jacob trouba received a literal asset back in TYOOL 2024, dougie could die tomorrow and get a 2nd

all that’s gonna happen with the Dougie money if you trade him speculatively is another Palat caliber contract

Don’t trade good players away. I don’t care if the return is less (or negative) if we have to trade him a year late. Don’t make the team worse if you don’t have to.

Are we letting our best defensive dman go or is Nemec getting traded/rotting in the minors for another season?

 

[dgibb10]

I wonder just how much it would cost to grab Turcotte+Foegele in the offseason from LAK.

That's who I'd like

 

[Hisch13r]

Are we letting our best defensive dman go or is Nemec getting traded/rotting in the minors for another season?

Yeah the whole "Don’t make the team worse if you don’t have to." is bullshit because if you're keeping Dougie you are going to make the team worse than it should be. This isn't peak Dougie that you can't get rid of. This guy is a far cry from that. The idea that the only thing we could do by ditching Dougie is adding a different bad contract instead is stupid. If that's how little you think of management then I don't see how you could have any real faith in them ever improving the team. You'd just be hoping they manage to not f*** up an elite core.

 

[dgibb10]

Fitzgerald’s spending spree this summer with Dillon and Pesce almost assuredly meant that he was planning to move on from Hamilton after 25-26 when Nemec got his next deal. Kovacevic was supposed to be #7, Nemec was supposed to slowly work his way into an NHL regular this year and next, and then got a big payday after next year.

It just so happened that Kovacevic is way better than anticipated that the Devils might be able to do it a year sooner. Is there risk involved? Absolutely. But in a cap world, it’s almost better to move a guy one year too soon than one year too late. Even moreso when you have Nemec/Casey who should be pushing for a spot next year.

Extending Kovacevic and trading Hamilton frees up 5 million to reallocate to the forward group, assuming Nemec is the sixth D. That frees up the space to go after Duchene, Palmieri, Hall, Benn, Giroux, etc. in the summer or receive a similar player back via trade.

On a quick glance around the league, Hamilton to Dallas seems like a place he may waive an NMC and RHD is a need. I would understand a deal centered around Marchment + for Hamilton especially with the cap savings we would get.

"On a quick glance around the league, Hamilton to Dallas seems like a place he may waive an NMC and RHD is a need. I would understand a deal centered around Marchment + for Hamilton especially with the cap savings we would get."

This is something I would look for yes. But you have to accept the possibility of a significant step backwards. Especially for someone who wants to bring casey up and ALSO ship nemec out.

Nemec is reasonable. Casey is not.

I have looked into moving dougie and dallas was a destination that popped out.

I don't see meaningful risk in holding him. His real money is just 3 mill a year his final 2 years. It's not going to be as hard a deal to move as a dump type move even if he falls off.

There's also pretty meaningful risk in giving Kovacevic a big deal considering he has 1 quality year (30 games).

 

[Blackjack]

There's also pretty meaningful risk in giving Kovacevic a big deal considering he has 1 quality year (30 games).

Kovacevic was very strong last season too. This isnt out of the blue with him.

 

[dgibb10]

Kovacevic was very strong last season too. This isnt out of the blue with him.

Kovacevic was a solid bottom pair guy last year.

It would be disappointing to commit to him that much by moving hamilton if he reverts to that

 

[Zippy316]

"On a quick glance around the league, Hamilton to Dallas seems like a place he may waive an NMC and RHD is a need. I would understand a deal centered around Marchment + for Hamilton especially with the cap savings we would get."

This is something I would look for yes. But you have to accept the possibility of a significant step backwards. Especially for someone who wants to bring casey up and ALSO ship nemec out.

Nemec is reasonable. Casey is not.

I have looked into moving dougie and dallas was a destination that popped out.

I don't see meaningful risk in holding him. His real money is just 3 mill a year his final 2 years. It's not going to be as hard a deal to move as a dump type move even if he falls off.

There's also pretty meaningful risk in giving Kovacevic a big deal considering he has 1 quality year (30 games).

No one is saying move both Dougie and Nemec. In any scenario you would move one or the other.

There is a huge risk in moving Dougie and relying on Pesce-Kovacevic-Nemec. But the thought process behind it is Dougie this summer as the PP1 option and go to guy offensively will have some value. If Luke takes over some of those duties next year and he regresses, his value might drop fast and be tough to move.

It may be worth the risk to move him this summer, cross your fingers that you now have a far more veteran D core with Dillon + Pesce to handle a full year. You would also have both Nemec and Casey as potential 3RD options just in case.

 

[NJDevs26]

Did Fitz discuss Holtz in his press conference today? Someone mentioned that his name was brought up. Am I mistaken? I couldn't find it watching the video.

Neither did I...I'm going back to the it was sarcasm by multiple posters I originally thought, unless there was another live feed that had the full presser and not just what was posted in the fifteen minute clip.

 

[Hisch13r]

No one is saying move both Dougie and Nemec. In any scenario you would move one or the other.

There is a huge risk in moving Dougie and relying on Pesce-Kovacevic-Nemec. But the thought process behind it is Dougie this summer as the PP1 option and go to guy offensively will have some value. If Luke takes over some of those duties next year and he regresses, his value might drop fast and be tough to move.

It may be worth the risk to move him this summer, cross your fingers that you now have a far more veteran D core with Dillon + Pesce to handle a full year. You would also have both Nemec and Casey as potential 3RD options just in case.

No one besides me probably lol. I'm not saying to move Nemec but I am definitely open to it if Kovy's actually this guy and the right deal is there for Nemec.

 

[dgibb10]

No one is saying move both Dougie and Nemec. In any scenario you would move one or the other.

There is a huge risk in moving Dougie and relying on Pesce-Kovacevic-Nemec. But the thought process behind it is Dougie this summer as the PP1 option and go to guy offensively will have some value. If Luke takes over some of those duties next year and he regresses, his value might drop fast and be tough to move.

It may be worth the risk to move him this summer, cross your fingers that you now have a far more veteran D core with Dillon + Pesce to handle a full year. You would also have both Nemec and Casey as potential 3RD options just in case.

"Noone is saying move both Nemec and Hamilton"

I 100% keep Kovy if he keeps up his play. He’s been one of the best shutdown guys in the league on the best shutdown pair and one of the best pairs in the league. He was very good on a dog shit Montreal team as well. He's like Fitz/Keefe wet dream as well so I have a hard time believing they don't want to keep him.

Casey>Nemec. I'll acknowledge moving Nemec could blow back up on you but if the right deal is there for a comparable forward prospect or forward star in their prime currently I'm making that move (Kovy dependent)

I’d also definitely be shipping out Dougie. I cannot justify a 9 mil who is as brutal as he has been defensively this year. The guy only has 1 5v5 goal this year and 6 total 5v5 pts. The vast majority of his value is coming on the PP this year. Granted the PP is the best in the league but I have a hard time believing Dougie’s the engine behind this PP and it’d collapse if it was Luke or Casey running it. Maybe it’s not as good but he’s not worth that deal and especially not when we have other guys who could fill his role adequately and we could use his money to bolster the forwards.

 

[Lou Bloom]

If the Devils Re-sign Kovacevic, then a Hamilton trade would make a lot of sense. They still have a solid veteran core and either Nemec or Casey can fill in the offensive defenseman role next to Dillon moving forward. Even if they aren't as good as Hamilton the extra $8M in cap space is a huge boost over the next 3 seasons.

I could see the Panthers being interested, they have a ton of cap space next offseason with only Sam Bennett as a major re-sign candidate and no RHD currently set to be on the roster next season. Hamilton would also be a huge improvement on the PP over Ekblad and give them a legitimate offensive weapon on the backend.

 

[dgibb10]

No one is saying move both Dougie and Nemec. In any scenario you would move one or the other.

There is a huge risk in moving Dougie and relying on Pesce-Kovacevic-Nemec. But the thought process behind it is Dougie this summer as the PP1 option and go to guy offensively will have some value. If Luke takes over some of those duties next year and he regresses, his value might drop fast and be tough to move.

It may be worth the risk to move him this summer, cross your fingers that you now have a far more veteran D core with Dillon + Pesce to handle a full year. You would also have both Nemec and Casey as potential 3RD options just in case.

Dougie's real money hits (july 1st bonus in quotes that would not be on the acquiring teams books if adding after july 1st)

25-26: 1 mill (10.5 mill bonus). This bonus makes
26-27: 1 mill (7.4 mill bonus)
27-28: 5.25 mill

I think, REGARDLESS of what he does this year and next, Dougie Hamilton would look VERY appetizing for a team who has to pay him just 1 million dollars in that year of 26-27.

I am fine with moving Hamilton and bringing in Nemec for the right price. You would have to be adding a veteran 7th dman as well in that scenario tho.

I'm not shipping them both as one has suggested.

I'm not eating retention on him for a 2nd like another has suggested.

And you are understanding the risks involved like what happened in 23-24

 

[Zippy316]

"Noone is saying move both Nemec and Hamilton"

Well frankly, it’s foolish to look at anything that Casey has done and think it’s enough o move Nemec.

Especially for a fan of a team that watched two undersized D in Butcher and Smith show a ton of promise and then completely flame out.

The Devils should genuinely be looking at Casey as like a secret back pocket weapon. We shouldn’t expect to need him or make future decisions based on him, but if he can become one of the very few undersized defensemen who are effective NHL players, then it’s a bonus.

 

[Hisch13r]

If the Devils Re-sign Kovacevic, then a Hamilton trade would make a lot of sense. They still have a solid veteran core and either Nemec or Casey can fill in the offensive defenseman role next to Dillon moving forward. Even if they aren't as good as Hamilton the extra $8M in cap space is a huge boost over the next 3 seasons.

I could see the Panthers being interested, they have a ton of cap space next offseason with only Sam Bennett as a major re-sign candidate and no RHD currently set to be on the roster next season. Hamilton would also be a huge improvement on the PP over Ekblad and give them a legitimate offensive weapon on the backend.

They did chose to move on from Montour rather than re-sign him to big money. Granted that was a 7 year deal for a a 30 year old. I wonder how much we'd have to retain to make it happen. In terms of Dougie's trade protection though I imagine Florida would be on his 10 team trade so that makes sense.

 

[dgibb10]

Well frankly, it’s foolish to look at anything that Casey has done and think it’s enough o move Nemec.

Especially for a fan of a team that watched two undersized D in Butcher and Smith show a ton of promise and then completely flame out.

The Devils should genuinely be looking at Casey as like a secret back pocket weapon. We shouldn’t expect to need him or make future decisions based on him, but if he can become one of the very few undersized defensemen who are effective NHL players, then it’s a bonus.

100% agree.

There are hamilton moves I have said make sense.

I just don't agree with retaining on him (unless the return is spectacular), also shipping out Nemec, or using that money on a high priced winger in UFA.

 

[IDEKWTM]

Can we get Hall?

 

[dgibb10]

They did chose to move on from Montour rather than re-sign him to big money. Granted that was a 7 year deal for a a 30 year old. I wonder how much we'd have to retain to make it happen. In terms of Dougie's trade protection though I imagine Florida would be on his 10 team trade so that makes sense.

If we are eating money it better be for a very sizable return

 

[Zippy316]

100% agree.

There are hamilton moves I have said make sense.

I just don't agree with retaining on him (unless the return is spectacular), also shipping out Nemec, or using that money on a high priced winger in UFA.

Part of my logic of moving Hamilton to is knowing that you don’t have just Nemec ready to step in at 3RD, but also maybe Casey.

I think we’re essentially in agreement on this.

You should be doing your due diligence this summer to explore Hamilton’s trade market and Kovacevic’s ask for a new contract. Based on both, you make the decision on if you should keep Kovacevic and trade Hamilton or keep Hamilton and let Kovacevic walk.

I think this summer Hamilton can still garner a return that makes us a better team next year, the following year, I think he’s closer to cap dump territory value-wise.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Can we get Hall?

Why would we want Hall? I don't get it. We need mostly bottom 6 types or a Tom Wilson-esque player. I have doubts to how well Hall in his current state would fit in on this team.

 

[Lou Bloom]

They did chose to move on from Montour rather than re-sign him to big money. Granted that was a 7 year deal for a a 30 year old. I wonder how much we'd have to retain to make it happen. In terms of Dougie's trade protection though I imagine Florida would be on his 10 team trade so that makes sense.

Montour was a cheap reclamation project that turned out great for them. Between Montour's crazy contract from Seattle and Florida being close to the cap they couldn't justify re-signing him (which was the right move).

But with the Cap rising and Ekblad's $7.5M dropping off they will have a lot more room to work with this offseason. And with limited trade assets they'll either have to find a reclamation project or go the UFA route and I could see them preferring Hamilton due to his shorter term vs a long term UFA signing, especially since they have a lack of offense on the backend.

I also don't think the Devils would have to retain in this situation. If Hamilton stays healthy and has a good overall season then 3/$27M for a 32 year old Elite offensive Dman would be close to market rate, especially with the cap increase.