Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Triumph]

Trading Hamilton isn't just about next year, it's about mitigating risk for future seasons. Hamilton is having an excellent season on the power play but there's definitely some warning signs about his play otherwise, and he could just fall apart entirely to where nobody is interested in acquiring him without sending us a similar boat anchor back. In addition, this isn't a player who is well-loved around the league to begin with, which is the whole reason we have him in the first place. It sucks to trade him and to have to retain some of his contract but it pushes off the possibility that he's a liability moving forward.

Meanwhile, Seamus Casey has similar strikes against him because of his size, where he was selected in the draft, and his skill set. He has limited value in trade. I don't think you can win a Casey trade.

I don't think the Devils get out of the Palat contract without eating some of it - either by trade or buyout - unless he goes on perma-LTIR.

Whether or not you spend the money immediately next season is, I think, irrelevant. You can at least have room to make large acquisitions during the season, something which the Devils do not have now. The Devils will still be woefully short on forward depth next season even if both Hameenaho and Gritsyuk come over and are good. They can spend more money on a backup goalie if they don't think Daws can handle it. The money will get used.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'm not assuming he can do that. I'm assuming he can be a complimentary piece with limited responsibility filling the 13-14 minutes a night Palat plays right now.

Compared to assuming we can just replace 20:30 a night of dougie lol

They can replace Dougie by giving his PP minutes to Luke + 5v5 they aren't going to miss him a ton since he's regressing a bit on that side anyway. Kovacevic and Pesce are fine for the hard defensive mins and then you have Casey with sheltered offensive ones which Dougie should be getting right now anyway

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Oh god this is awful.

Valuing Hamilton at 7.5 mill cap and about 4 mill real money about the same as what Jacob trouba got.

Also we literally had this exact scenario LAST year in trusting Siegs and Marino coming off incredible seasons and an ELC in place of dougie.

With a 3rd star winger alongside jack and bratt too


Just curious, would you say Dillon is on the level of Siegs or Luke?

"oh no, dougie is only top 30 in the league in xgoals share what will we ever do"

I couldn’t care less about the Trouba deal and it has no bearing whatsoever on a Dougie deal. Completely irrelevant to anything we’re discussing.

Don’t know what the rest of that is about but I’ll just say, yeah, I want to keep Johnny Kovacevic. Good player that helped transform the way we play defense.

 

[dgibb10]

Trading Hamilton isn't just about next year, it's about mitigating risk for future seasons. Hamilton is having an excellent season on the power play but there's definitely some warning signs about his play otherwise, and he could just fall apart entirely to where nobody is interested in acquiring him without sending us a similar boat anchor back. In addition, this isn't a player who is well-loved around the league to begin with, which is the whole reason we have him in the first place. It sucks to trade him and to have to retain some of his contract but it pushes off the possibility that he's a liability moving forward.

Meanwhile, Seamus Casey has similar strikes against him because of his size, where he was selected in the draft, and his skill set. He has limited value in trade. I don't think you can win a Casey trade.

I don't think the Devils get out of the Palat contract without eating some of it - either by trade or buyout - unless he goes on perma-LTIR.

Whether or not you spend the money immediately next season is, I think, irrelevant. You can at least have room to make large acquisitions during the season, something which the Devils do not have now. The Devils will still be woefully short on forward depth next season even if both Hameenaho and Gritsyuk come over and are good. They can spend more money on a backup goalie if they don't think Daws can handle it. The money will get used.

The risk is mitigated by the fact that he makes 3 mill a year in real money in his final 2 seasons.

And we're back to the stupid idea of "let's add another star winger who will make 0 difference on the Jack and Bratt line"

I couldn’t care less about the Trouba deal and it has no bearing whatsoever on a Dougie deal. Completely irrelevant to anything we’re discussing.

Don’t know what the rest of that is about but I’ll just say, yeah, I want to keep Johnny Kovacevic. Good player that helped transform the way we play defense.

And we can afford to keep them BOTH.

 

[Hisch13r]

Trading Hamilton isn't just about next year, it's about mitigating risk for future seasons. Hamilton is having an excellent season on the power play but there's definitely some warning signs about his play otherwise, and he could just fall apart entirely to where nobody is interested in acquiring him without sending us a similar boat anchor back. In addition, this isn't a player who is well-loved around the league to begin with, which is the whole reason we have him in the first place. It sucks to trade him and to have to retain some of his contract but it pushes off the possibility that he's a liability moving forward.

Meanwhile, Seamus Casey has similar strikes against him because of his size, where he was selected in the draft, and his skill set. He has limited value in trade. I don't think you can win a Casey trade.

I don't think the Devils get out of the Palat contract without eating some of it - either by trade or buyout - unless he goes on perma-LTIR.

Whether or not you spend the money immediately next season is, I think, irrelevant. You can at least have room to make large acquisitions during the season, something which the Devils do not have now. The Devils will still be woefully short on forward depth next season even if both Hameenaho and Gritsyuk come over and are good. They can spend more money on a backup goalie if they don't think Daws can handle it. The money will get used.

Yeah even if the move to make a splash for a forward doesn't materialize this summer you can put in good top and bottom 6 placeholders for the time being and have the flexibility to make the splash when the opportunity arises.

I like Gritsyuk and think he's a top 9 guy next year. I'm not just going to bank on that. For top 9 wings you have Bratt/Timo/Mercer/Noesen. There's 2 spots open. I'm not going to just pencil in Gritsyuk for one. I'd like to add a top 6er and a good bottom 6er that could play on the 3rd or 4th line. If Gritsyuk's good then great that guy is on the 4th line. If not then he's on your 3rd line. I don't really want to be in a spot where Cotter's the first to option to be moved up onto the 3rd line. Let alone being a regular 3rd liner like we have this year.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Wait he did this for real? I thought that was just poster sarcasm. Holtz must have been a total knob if they’re still taking shots at him months after going out the door. Or Fitz is still reminding the scouts who talked him into taking Holtz.

Did Fitz discuss Holtz in his press conference today? Someone mentioned that his name was brought up. Am I mistaken? I couldn't find it watching the video.

 

[dgibb10]

They can replace Dougie by giving his PP minutes to Luke + 5v5 they aren't going to miss him a ton since he's regressing a bit on that side anyway. Kovacevic and Pesce are fine for the hard defensive mins and then you have Casey with sheltered offensive ones which Dougie should be getting right now anyway

Luke does not do what dougie does for our power play. As we should have learned when our PP was 17% after dougie got hurt last year.

Casey played 10% of his ice time against elite competition and still had a 43% xGoals share.

Dougie plays around 27% on the year (same as Luke-Pesce), and still has a 54.5% xGoals share.

Above some guys like:

McAvoy, Slavin, Heiskanen, Dahlin, Sergachev, Reilly, Sanderson, etc etc etc.

Don't let how good Luke-Pesce and Kovy-Siegs fool you into thinking Dougie isn't still great.

As we saw with Nemec-Casey, it can get a WHOLE lot worse

 

[Hisch13r]

We have the opportunity to go from really lackluster forward depth this year to it being a strength next year with it only really costing us a bit of a hit to the offense from the backend and the PP. I take that tradeoff 100 out of 100 times

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Luke does not do what dougie does for our power play. As we should have learned when our PP was 17% after dougie got hurt last year.

Casey played 10% of his ice time against elite competition and still had a 43% xGoals share.

Dougie plays around 27% on the year (same as Luke-Pesce), and still has a 54.5% xGoals share.

Above some guys like:

McAvoy, Slavin, Heiskanen, Dahlin, Sergachev, Reilly, Sanderson, etc etc etc.

Don't let how good Luke-Pesce and Kovy-Siegs fool you into thinking Dougie isn't still great.

As we saw with Nemec-Casey, it can get a WHOLE lot worse

We also didn't have a healthy Jack Hughes last year, so it didn't matter if the Devils had Dougie last year or not

 

[Devils731]

Just throw 2 more cents on the pile, I think it makes sense to trade Hamilton this offseason and I think the Devils should look for positive return without retaining.

Hamilton is still really good and will be getting paid less real dollars than cap hit after his bonus is paid out next year.

He will be a help to whatever team he ends up on, he’s just a victim of circumstance for the Devils.

 

[Triumph]

The risk is mitigated by the fact that he makes 3 mill a year in real money in his final 2 seasons.

And we're back to the stupid idea of "let's add another star winger who will make 0 difference on the Jack and Bratt line"

That's not at all what I suggested. I don't want another star winger on Jack's line, and I never suggested anything of the sort. Don't put words in my mouth.

It is nice that he is cheap in those years cost-wise, but I still am not certain there will be a ton of teams lining up for him. There's about 10 teams in the league that really care about $ and are willing to make moves in order to save it.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah even if the move to make a splash for a forward doesn't materialize this summer you can put in good top and bottom 6 placeholders for the time being and have the flexibility to make the splash when the opportunity arises.

I like Gritsyuk and think he's a top 9 guy next year. I'm not just going to bank on that. For top 9 wings you have Bratt/Timo/Mercer/Noesen. There's 2 spots open. I'm not going to just pencil in Gritsyuk for one. I'd like to add a top 6er and a good bottom 6er that could play on the 3rd or 4th line. If Gritsyuk's good then great that guy is on the 4th line. If not then he's on your 3rd line. I don't really want to be in a spot where Cotter's the first to option to be moved up onto the 3rd line. Let alone being a regular 3rd liner like we have this year.

Problem solved:

Mercer would be the first call up to the top 6.

If you aren't comfortable with Cotter being a short term injury call up to the top 9, that is an impossible problem to solve beyond shipping out cotter.

You won't pencil in Gritysuk but you will happily pencil in Casey? That logic does not hold up I'm sorry.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Feel like Palat might be hard to move this offseason,

 

[devilsfan950003]

I think Fitz should look for a third-line center. Cheap contract, strong on face-offs, hits, blocked shots, strong forechecker, with some grit and can chip in some points. Drop Haula down to 4th line center and put Lazer on 4th line as a winger. Lazar is a better wing than center.

Not sure where Gritsyuk fits being a left-winger. Or is he a right wing? Seeing both but he's left-handed. Not going to move Bratt off of Jack's line. Can Gritsyuk play right-wing on Jack's line? He's feisty and a pain to play against, with scoring prowless. Sound like a sound third-liner to me, unless...?

 

[dgibb10]

We have the opportunity to go from really lackluster forward depth this year to it being a strength next year with it only really costing us a bit of a hit to the offense from the backend and the PP. I take that tradeoff 100 out of 100 times

Once again you vastly underestimate how good Dougie is on the PP and 5v5.

"a bit of a hit" is a massive understatement.

It also heavily depends on Siegs and Kovacevic maintaining this level of play.

Just like 23-24 depended on Marino and Siegs maintaining their level of play from the previous year. They didn't and it cost us massively

 

[Hisch13r]

I think Fitz should look for a third-line center. Cheap contract, strong on face-offs, hits, blocked shots, strong forechecker, with some grit and can chip in some points. Drop Haula down to 4th line center and put Lazer on 4th line as a winger. Lazar is a better wing than center.

Not sure where Gritsyuk fits being a left-winger. Or is he a right wing? Seeing both but he's left-handed. Not going to move Bratt off of Jack's line. Can Gritsyuk play right-wing on Jack's line? He's feisty and a pain to play against, with scoring prowless. Sound like a sound third-liner to me, unless...?

I want Suter or Dowd as a bottom 6C. Very different stylistically but both both great defensive forwards and PKers.

Gritsyuk plays RW. Bratt can play either wing so just slide him over if you want Gritsyuk there. Either way I'd prefer Gritsyuk with Timo-Nico and Noesen with Jack-Bratt.

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Knowing that Mikey McLeod was the perfect bottom six guy makes me hate him even more.

Never heard of him

 

[dgibb10]

Over the last 3 years, there are 3 guys/pairings who have led to offensive generation better than Hamilton 5v5

Bouchard+Ekholm
Burns+Slavin
Pettersson+Karlsson

But sure he'll be really easy to replace.

There are 3 guys who have done what he has done in terms of PP generation:

Evan bouchard
Barrie (alongside McDrai)
Morgan Reilly.

It is insane to think you can just replace that

 

[Mr Bojanglez]

Luke does not have the same kind of puck poise Dougie does, on the powerplay. Luke still a bit wheelin' and deelin'.

Hamilton does that too, but appears to be a bit more controlled in the system.

 

[Hisch13r]

Luke does not have the same kind of puck poise Dougie does, on the powerplay. Luke still a bit wheelin' and deelin'.

Hamilton does that too, but appears to be a bit more controlled in the system.

I wouldn't say poise with the puck is one of Dougie's better attributes. Luke's much better on puck.

 

[dgibb10]

I want Suter or Dowd as a bottom 6C. Very different stylistically but both both great defensive forwards and PKers.

Gritsyuk plays RW. Bratt can play either wing so just slide him over if you want Gritsyuk there. Either way I'd prefer Gritsyuk with Timo-Nico and Noesen with Jack-Bratt.

Here ya go and I even got both with money to spare (94 mill cap)

Now, what would you possibly spend another 9 million dollars on that is worth the risk of our PP reverting back to what it was last year when dougie was hurt (17%), or about 30 or so goals lost on a full year, and the risk that exactly what happens in 23-24 happens again?

 

[onmygameboi]

There's a guy on the trade board proposing Fabian Zetterlund for Mercer.

 

[dgibb10]

You can want to move dougie.

But you better have an actual plan to spend the money, which you guys don't seem to have, or an understanding of the available money we have.

An actual reasonable price and location you're sending him to.

An understanding of how ridiculously low his real dollar cost is the final years of his deal if dumping is needed after next year.

The impacts of any term you give to UFAs.

And you better understand what it will do to our PP and our EV play.

And understand the impact of what happens if our PP reverts to 20% or so.
And the risk and impact of what happens if Kovy-Siegs do what Siegs Marino did in 23-24 after EXCELLENT 22-23 years.

Guess which one of these guys is dougie and which is Makar over the last 3 years

 

[JK3]

Some of the Fitz stuff minus lots of ums and you knows.

I think there are guys that are playing extremely well and the I think there are guys that know they need to find their game and help contribute any way they can.

There are certain guys here that are buzzing offensively. When our PP doesn't score and if one of our top lines doesn't score I think we need more from other people quite honestly contributing without naming any names. There's a reason we've been shut out five times cause when the first line or second line doesn't score a goal or our PP doesn't score, we don't score. We need guys to step up and start producing.

On Nemec - It's never easy when you're reassigning a kid literally after playing with the big club last year but the reality is it's a meritocracy man, like we're here to win and if you can't help contribute you're not going to play. If he's not playing he's not sitting, we have the luxury to send him down.

There was a demand to go down and work on the things you need to work on you know, be better aware of your surroundings and people behind you. It's not just about offense, we don't need offense, we need guys to defend and be hard to play against and really, really thrive in that area. The coaches down there know exactly what they need to do.

 

[Alex NJD]

Isn't Palat's buyout after this season not awful and very manageable for the last year?

Also I feel like discussing what we're going to do in the offseason with ~50 games left and hopefully a good playoff run to boot is a bit premature?

Little parallel I noticed too is we were making fun of the Rags in the other threads for dumping the vets who committed there long term and apparently imploding the lockerroom but wouldn't we be kind of doing the same thing?