Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Bcap88]

This isn’t how it works. You don’t look at a handful of games, the first NHL games the player has played, games that were with a struggling player, games that were with another righty — and then make any type of projection of what the player will look like in a year, in a different situation entirely. That is total foolishness.

Yea but expecting him to replace dougie’s level of play in exchange for 8 million dollars is an ea sports nhl move

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

No what you don't do is blindly assume a guy who has not shown to be an effective NHLer can fill the shoes of one of the best offensive dmen in the league.

The list of dmen who are catalysts for offense on the level of dougie is a VERY short one

This isn’t a thing that matters all that much in such a small sample, especially when the player flashed fantastic offensive ability. Nemec was excellent last year and the worst player on the team in said small sample. I still trust him as a player and would happily pencil him in on the 3rd pairing next season. You just can’t put together a terrible pairing like Casey-Nemec.

Will Butcher was able to thrive on a 3rd pairing with Ben Lovejoy, Seamus would be fine in a sheltered 3rd pairing role. Dougie is good offensively. The list of dmen that are more cost effective on the 3rd pairing is many pages long.

 

[New Jerseys Devil]

Yea but expecting him to replace dougie’s level of play in exchange for 8 million dollars is an ea sports nhl move

But what if im, like, really good at EA Sports NHL Franchise Mode?

 

[dgibb10]

Yea but expecting him to replace dougie’s level of play in exchange for 8 million dollars is an ea sports nhl move

Also considering what we use money on will likely be a guy that makes Arseni fairly obsolete.

It's wild how people are like "we can't pencil in Arseni as a complimentary piece on a Jack-Bratt line, we need to get an expensive veteran" but will pencil Casey in as an ENGINE like dougie is for offense because of money.

 

[Hisch13r]

Yea but expecting him to replace dougie’s level of play in exchange for 8 million dollars is an ea sports nhl move

It's the type of calculation a team like Carolina constantly makes. You don't need Casey to replicate Dougie's value 1 for 1. Luke will be the one taking the PP1 role. Dougie's also a 3rd pair guy at 5v5 now. Luke and Casey can replace enough of Dougie's value and it's not like you're just sitting on the 8 mil doing nothing with it.

 

[NJDevs26]

Wow yeah I just watched the presser, very uncalled for. The most surprising part was it was so unprompted. They were just about to wrap up and Fitz just added that comment in. Very odd.

Wait he did this for real? I thought that was just poster sarcasm. Holtz must have been a total knob if they’re still taking shots at him months after going out the door. Or Fitz is still reminding the scouts who talked him into taking Holtz.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Yea but expecting him to replace dougie’s level of play in exchange for 8 million dollars is an ea sports nhl move

I don’t think he can replace everything Dougie does. As it stands, Dougie is slightly losing his minutes at 5 on 5 by goals. Some of that will even out with a few more saves, but still, he’s very much “okay” considering how strong the whole team is.

I’d just rather throw that money around the rest of the roster when we have possibly 2 guys that can reasonably be plugged into a 3rd pairing role and be in the “okay” bucket.

 

[Bcap88]

It's the type of calculation a team like Carolina constantly makes. You don't need Casey to replicate Dougie's value 1 for 1. Luke will be the one taking the PP1 role. Dougie's also a 3rd pair guy at 5v5 now. Luke and Casey can replace enough of Dougie's value and it's not like you're just sitting on the 8 mil doing nothing with it.

It’s the same calculation they make every year and then it’s the same complaining they do about not having elite talent

I don’t think he can replace everything Dougie does. As it stands, Dougie is slightly losing his minutes at 5 on 5 by goals. Some of that will even out with a few more saves, but still, he’s very much “okay” considering how strong the whole team is.

I’d just rather throw that money around the rest of the roster when we have possibly 2 guys that can reasonably be plugged into a 3rd pairing role and be in the “okay” bucket.

Dump Tatar and Palat

Almost equally the same

 

[dgibb10]

It's the type of calculation a team like Carolina constantly makes. You don't need Casey to replicate Dougie's value 1 for 1. Luke will be the one taking the PP1 role. Dougie's also a 3rd pair guy at 5v5 now. Luke and Casey can replace enough of Dougie's value and it's not like you're just sitting on the 8 mil doing nothing with it.

Where are you using the money.

If you say you're keeping dumping dougie and keeping palat you are insane. If not, where are you using the money.

 

[Hisch13r]

It’s the same calculation they make every year and then it’s the same complaining they do about not having elite talent


Dump Tatar and Palat

Almost equally the same

Carolina's issue has been more style than talent. They loooooooved to fling low danger shots on net all day. The Canes would not be a better team had they thrown the money at Dougie. Ghost-Walker has been a better pair for them this year than Skjei-Pesce was for them

Dougie AND Palat should be dumped. It's not an either or. You keep Dougie even with moving Palat and good luck keeping Kovy as well as adding what the pieces up front. You move Dougie and Palat and you can keep arguably the best top 4 in the league together while bolstering the forwards.

 

[dgibb10]

I don’t think he can replace everything Dougie does. As it stands, Dougie is slightly losing his minutes at 5 on 5 by goals. Some of that will even out with a few more saves, but still, he’s very much “okay” considering how strong the whole team is.

I’d just rather throw that money around the rest of the roster when we have possibly 2 guys that can reasonably be plugged into a 3rd pairing role and be in the “okay” bucket.

Dougie is not "slightly losing his minutes"

Unless you also think Jacob Slavin is "slightly losing his minutes".

Don't blame the goalie not making saves on hamilton

If you look at a depth chart and tell yourself we're talking about "3rd pairing minutes" okay.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Dump Tatar and Palat

Almost equally the same

Ideally both Palat and Dougie are moved. Remember, Luke is getting his big money and we want to keep Kovy. The money runs out quick even with both Palat and Dougie off the roster.

 

[dgibb10]

Carolina's issue has been more style than talent. They loooooooved to fling low danger shots on net all day. The Canes would not be a better team had they thrown the money at Dougie. Ghost-Walker has been a better pair for them this year than Skjei-Pesce was for them

Dougie AND Palat should be dumped. It's not an either or. You keep Dougie even with moving Palat and good luck keeping Kovy as well as adding what the pieces up front. You move Dougie and Palat and you can keep arguably the best top 4 in the league together while bolstering the forwards.

And if Siegs does what he did last year then what?
And if what happened with Marino happens to Kovy? then what?

What are you even spending the money on at that point.

Let me guess, a winger for jack and bratt.

Arseni can do that. And the impact gap between Arseni on a PP2 and 3rd guy on a forward line is a LOT less than the impact gap between Casey and Dougie

Ideally both Palat and Dougie are moved. Remember, Luke is getting his big money and we want to keep Kovy. The money runs out quick even with both Palat and Dougie off the roster.

How many times do I have to do this shit.

Yeah I'm sure we're really gonna need that 16 million dollars to fill out a 4th line.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Dougie is not "slightly losing his minutes"

Unless you also think Jacob Slavin is "slightly losing his minutes".

Don't blame the goalie not making saves on hamilton

If you look at a depth chart and tell yourself we're talking about "3rd pairing minutes" okay.

He has a worse expected goal share than the team does. He is being slightly outscored. The other 2 pairings are far better. I’ll blame Dougie for being a cone that cannot recover. Very poor defensive play from him all year.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It’s the same calculation they make every year and then it’s the same complaining they do about not having elite talent


Dump Tatar and Palat

Almost equally the same

On the back end? They are miles better than us in that regard. It's up front on the forwards they can't compete with us. The year we signed Hamilton, they signed DeAngelo to do virtually the same thing in the regular season at a fraction of the cost. They probably win the Rangers series in 2022 with Dougie on the powerplay than DeAngelo but they also are just owned to no end by the Rags. They did it this year as well signing guys like Sean Walker and Ghostisbhere and Ghost has been one of the best signings in UFA. Carolina shits on the league with defensive contracts/scouting.

And if Siegs does what he did last year then what?
And if what happened with Marino happens to Kovy? then what?

What are you even spending the money on at that point.

Let me guess, a winger for jack and bratt.

Arseni can do that. And the impact gap between Arseni on a PP2 and 3rd guy on a forward line is a LOT less than the impact gap between Casey and Dougie


How many times do I have to do this shit.

Yeah I'm sure we're really gonna need that 16 million dollars to fill out a 4th line.
View attachment 946362

It's way better to get rid of Dougie a year too early than a year too late, his game isn't going to age gracefully and there's signs already of it. Love the guy but they need to move on from him with how this defense is set up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

And if Siegs does what he did last year then what?
And if what happened with Marino happens to Kovy? then what?

What are you even spending the money on at that point.

Let me guess, a winger for jack and bratt.

Arseni can do that. And the impact gap between Arseni on a PP2 and 3rd guy on a forward line is a LOT less than the impact gap between Casey and Dougie


How many times do I have to do this shit.

Yeah I'm sure we're really gonna need that 16 million dollars to fill out a 4th line.
View attachment 946362

We’re almost certainly not moving the entirety of those deals. Also, Cotter is showing himself to be more of a 4th liner, so we’ll need at least another 3rd liner. Plus pay a 4C. You’re also penciling in a KHLer into a significant role (and will he not be getting more money per year than that?).

 

[dgibb10]

We’re almost certainly not moving the entirety of those deals. Also, Cotter is showing himself to be more of a 4th liner, so we’ll need at least another 3rd liner. Plus pay a 4C. You’re also penciling in a KHLer into a significant role (and will he not be getting more money per year than that?).

Oh god you want to eat money on dougie too this gets worse every second

Just curious. 14 minutes a night for Gritysuk (Palat equivalent role on Jack+Bratts line) is not a significant role, but 20:30 a night to fill in hamiltons role isn't?

On the back end? They are miles better than us in that regard. It's up front on the forwards they can't compete with us. The year we signed Hamilton, they signed DeAngelo to do virtually the same thing in the regular season at a fraction of the cost. They probably win the Rangers series in 2022 with Dougie on the powerplay than DeAngelo but they also are just owned to no end by the Rags. They did it this year as well signing guys like Sean Walker and Ghostisbhere and Ghost has been one of the best signings in UFA. Carolina shits on the league with defensive contracts/scouting.



It's way better to get rid of Dougie a year too early than a year too late, his game isn't going to age gracefully and there's signs already of it. Love the guy but they need to move on from him with how this defense is set up.

Dougie hamilton makes 3.1 mill a year in real money in his final 2 years. I am so unbelievably unworried about dumping that deal if necessary.

And to clarify, burns is what they had replace hamilton (in terms of EV), not deangelo or ghost. they've ALSO needed to bring in PP QBs.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

And if Siegs does what he did last year then what?
And if what happened with Marino happens to Kovy? then what?

What are you even spending the money on at that point.

Let me guess, a winger for jack and bratt.

Arseni can do that. And the impact gap between Arseni on a PP2 and 3rd guy on a forward line is a LOT less than the impact gap between Casey and Dougie


How many times do I have to do this shit.

Yeah I'm sure we're really gonna need that 16 million dollars to fill out a 4th line.
View attachment 946362

Gritsyuk will have growing pains year 1 in NA, can't just assume he comes in like a Panarin and just rip the league apart. Granted, it wouldn't be too hard doing that with 2 studs. You can legit make an argument that third line could be their 4th line at the rates they're playing at right now/this year. Flexibility as a contender with that much space is always a plus, lighter trade packages, you can sign good guys for cheaper in UFA who want to Cup chase, etc.

 

[dgibb10]

Gritsyuk will have growing pains year 1 in NA, can't just assume he comes in like a Panarin and just rip the league apart. Granted, it wouldn't be too hard doing that with 2 studs. You can legit make an argument that third line could be their 4th line at the rates they're playing at right now/this year. Flexibility as a contender with that much space is always a plus, lighter trade packages, you can sign good guys for cheaper in UFA who want to Cup chase, etc.

I'm not assuming he can do that. I'm assuming he can be a complimentary piece with limited responsibility filling the 13-14 minutes a night Palat plays right now.

Compared to assuming we can just replace 20:30 a night of dougie lol

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Oh god you want to eat money on dougie too this gets worse every second

Just curious. 14 minutes a night for Gritysuk (Palat equivalent role on Jack+Bratts line) is not a significant role, but 20:30 a night to fill in hamiltons role isn't?


Dougie hamilton makes 3.1 mill a year in real money in his final 2 years. I am so unbelievably unworried about dumping that deal if necessary.

Yeah, paying 1-1.5 on that deal and getting a 2nd back is an obvious move. Easy call. Are you forgetting that this is about retaining a guy who has been literally the best shutdown dman in the sport? That’s the calculus here.

I don’t care about the PP getting a bit worse, though it’s currently ice cold right now. And if it stays ice cold much longer, we may even give Luke a look there. You’re talking like Dougie’s replacement will be Mike Mottau and not one of the most talented D the Devils have ever had.

 

[Hisch13r]

Ideally both Palat and Dougie are moved. Remember, Luke is getting his big money and we want to keep Kovy. The money runs out quick even with both Palat and Dougie off the roster.

Let's say cap jumps to 94 mil. A pretty middle point of the high and low estimates. Let's say Luke/Kovy for 13ish mil. You'd have 4-4.5 mil. Dump Palat and you have 10-10.5 to fill in a top 6 winger, 3rd line winger, 4C, 4RW, and a backup goalie. Also another league min guy for another extra forward unless you plan on running a 22 man roster. You're in an extremely tough spot like that. Idk if you could get off of Dougie's whole deal without retaining anything. If you can then you've given yourself some real cap flexibility probably even after you've filled out the roster. I think you might have to retain like a couple of mil but even then you're in a good spot.

Also if you do keep Dougie then what happens with Casey/Nemec? If you're using one of them in a deal for a forward you're still going to be pretty hamstrung cap wise to fill out the rest of the roster. Keep Dougie and you're also likely not keeping Kovy. If you are keeping Dougie and re-signing Kovy then good luck really adding up front. Do people think the team is better if you keep Dougie, move on from Kovy, and fill one of Casey/Nemec into his spot? Because I sure as hell wouldn't feel more comfortable doing that.

On the back end? They are miles better than us in that regard. It's up front on the forwards they can't compete with us. The year we signed Hamilton, they signed DeAngelo to do virtually the same thing in the regular season at a fraction of the cost. They probably win the Rangers series in 2022 with Dougie on the powerplay than DeAngelo but they also are just owned to no end by the Rags. They did it this year as well signing guys like Sean Walker and Ghostisbhere and Ghost has been one of the best signings in UFA. Carolina shits on the league with defensive contracts/scouting.



It's way better to get rid of Dougie a year too early than a year too late, his game isn't going to age gracefully and there's signs already of it. Love the guy but they need to move on from him with how this defense is set up.

lol Idk about the being miles better than us on the backend right now. I think we've caught up to them.

 

[Emperoreddy]

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah, paying 1-1.5 on that deal and getting a 2nd back is an obvious move. Easy call. Are you forgetting that this is about retaining a guy who has been literally the best shutdown dman in the sport? That’s the calculus here.

I don’t care about the PP getting a bit worse, though it’s currently ice cold right now. And if it stays ice cold much longer, we may even give Luke a look there. You’re talking like Dougie’s replacement will be Mike Mottau and not one of the most talented D the Devils have ever had.

Oh god this is awful.

Valuing Hamilton at 7.5 mill cap and about 4 mill real money about the same as what Jacob trouba got.

Also we literally had this exact scenario LAST year in trusting Siegs and Marino coming off incredible seasons and an ELC in place of dougie.

With a 3rd star winger alongside jack and bratt too

He has a worse expected goal share than the team does. He is being slightly outscored. The other 2 pairings are far better. I’ll blame Dougie for being a cone that cannot recover. Very poor defensive play from him all year.

Just curious, would you say Dillon is on the level of Siegs or Luke?

"oh no, dougie is only top 30 in the league in xgoals share what will we ever do"

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Let's say cap jumps to 94 mil. A pretty middle point of the high and low estimates. Let's say Luke/Kovy for 13ish mil. You'd have 4-4.5 mil. Dump Palat and you have 10-10.5 to fill in a top 6 winger, 3rd line winger, 4C, 4RW, and a backup goalie. Also another league min guy for another extra forward unless you plan on running a 22 man roster. You're in an extremely tough spot like that. Idk if you could get off of Dougie's whole deal without retaining anything. If you can then you've given yourself some real cap flexibility probably even after you've filled out the roster. I think you might have to retain like a couple of mil but even then you're in a good spot.

Also if you do keep Dougie then what happens with Casey/Nemec? If you're using one of them in a deal for a forward you're still going to be pretty hamstrung cap wise to fill out the rest of the roster. Keep Dougie and you're also likely not keeping Kovy. If you are keeping Dougie and re-signing Kovy then good luck really adding up front. Do people think the team is better if you keep Dougie, move on from Kovy, and fill one of Casey/Nemec into his spot? Because I sure as hell wouldn't feel more comfortable doing that.



lol Idk about the being miles better than us on the backend right now. I think we've caught up to them.

We've drafted most of our backend, they consistently dip into UFA and still have a very good back end every year is my point. Lost Hamliton, Pesce, etc.

 

[dgibb10]

We've drafted most of our backend, they consistently dip into UFA and still have a very good back end every year is my point. Lost Hamliton, Pesce, etc.

Yeah they fleeced a team into getting a still elite offensive aging dman and having the other team foolishly eat a portion of the contract for a 2nd round pick.

By trading dougie in the way some here suggest, we'd be the Sharks of that scenario, not the Canes.