Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

[Andre Palot]

Right now he looks more Bobby Farnham than Randy McKay, or even 30-goal Clarkson

Could be worse.

Could be Bobby Butler

 

[billingtons ghost]

Full media availability is here.

I was pleased that voice to text subtitle John Kovacevic to Yan Kova Savage. I could get on board with that nickname

 

[Hisch13r]

Right now he looks more Bobby Farnham than Randy McKay, or even 30-goal Clarkson

Even without the goals Clarkson had turned into a great defensive winger. Cotter's just a guy.

 

[devilsfan950003]

Dowling has done an admirable job holding it down. 53.65 xGF%, 58.8% without MacDermid.

I think it's safe to say Dowling has surprised us a bit. The little time Nathan Legare played showed us some promise, too. With Lazar coming back, hopefully soon, I'd like to see Dowling play center and keep Lazar at wing. Lazar is a much better wing.

Perhaps Fitz could grab a third-line center and drop Haula to 4th line.

 

[Guttersniped]

Well he has to call out somebody else now that Holtz is gone.

Fitz also mentioned that Holtz is not having a good year in Vegas, which seemed uncalled for to me tbh.

 

[Brodeur]

I was pleased that voice to text subtitle John Kovacevic to Yan Kova Savage. I could get on board with that nickname

 

[Guttersniped]

tracks with general narratives but also smooths out some of the PDO bounces, nice thing to look on but becomes less valuable as a week to week tool as the season progresses and the numbers move less

But, takeaways:

• NYR and the Canes started playing excellent and have cooled off (Canes still very good).
• Caps are playing above their expected numbers (obviously).
• Avs decimated by injuries.
• Edmonton good @ hockey
• Jets been bad lately/product of Helle
• Devils reliably good
• Florida picking it up after a slower start
• Philly/Pitt on the upswing (Pens still bad)
• Vegas maybe a bit of a mirage (SEE WHAT I DID THERE?)

Buffalo with it’s traditional early season mirage, they typically go on an early run to create hope and then immediately collapse to completely crush it.

On the other end, Ottawa had its classic garbage start, they traditionally kneecap their season early and have to try (and fail) to dig themselves out of a hole. They’re in a better spot this year, hopefully they’ll sneak in with a WC spot.

 

[Zippy316]

"I’d rather use some of that cap space to add a quality scoring forward and not just another third liner alongside Hughes-Bratt."

The "3rd scoring threat" has been tried multiple times now and it doesn't improve the effectiveness of the line.

On the latter, I largely agree it’s really hard to find the right fit for those two. You want someone skilled enough but not too skilled so they’re willing to defer to them.

You’re really seeking for like a prime aged Saad or Palat. In a perfect world, someone who also has a terrific shot that would be able to finish on what they create.

Again in a perfect world, you can manage to take assets you get from a Hamilton trade and parlay that into a quality second line forward who fits well with Hughes-Bratt.

 

[Hisch13r]

Fitz also mentioned that Holtz is not having a good year in Vegas, seemed uncalled for to me tbh.

Outside of a hot shooting stretch for Cotter to start the year he and Holtz have that in common.

 

[My3Sons]

Outside of a hot shooting stretch for Cotter to start the year he and Holtz have that in common.

They are dissimilar players to my eyes

 

[Bcap88]

Only problem with moving in from Dougie is no one is replacing the points from the backend

Kovy/dillon/pesce/Siegs are all primarily defensive

Dougie and Luke provide the offense but not so much Luke right now

 

[dgibb10]

I 100% keep Kovy if he keeps up his play. He’s been one of the best shutdown guys in the league on the best shutdown pair and one of the best pairs in the league. He was very good on a dog shit Montreal team as well. He's like Fitz/Keefe wet dream as well so I have a hard time believing they don't want to keep him.

Casey>Nemec. I'll acknowledge moving Nemec could blow back up on you but if the right deal is there for a comparable forward prospect or forward star in their prime currently I'm making that move (Kovy dependent)

I’d also definitely be shipping out Dougie. I cannot justify a 9 mil who is as brutal as he has been defensively this year. The guy only has 1 5v5 goal this year and 6 total 5v5 pts. The vast majority of his value is coming on the PP this year. Granted the PP is the best in the league but I have a hard time believing Dougie’s the engine behind this PP and it’d collapse if it was Luke or Casey running it. Maybe it’s not as good but he’s not worth that deal and especially not when we have other guys who could fill his role adequately and we could use his money to bolster the forwards.

Casey fanboys be less subtle about how they want to give him every single opportunity and ship out all the guys ahead of him challenge.

We cannot be here shitting on Hamilton 5v5 while suggesting we bring in Seamus Casey into the lineup.

 

[Hisch13r]

They are dissimilar players to my eyes

They're definitely not the same stylistically but impact wise neither are all that good. I will say part of Cotter's struggles are that he and Haula are poison to each other. Holtz is a guy with a top 6 skillset but hasn't been good enough to make use of that. Cotter's a 4th liner who we've been playing on the 3rd. He skates fast in a straight line, throws some hits, and has some hands but he's also bad defensively and doesn't create much offense. I do think Cotter could have some success with Jack-Bratt as a placeholder until we upgrade (I mean who couldn't though lol) but they're not taking Palat out of that spot.

A big difference between Cotter and Wood is that Wood was a ball of f***ing chaos. He got pucks on net like crazy. From 2021 through 22-23 Wood was 19th among forwards in 5v5 shots/60. Cotter from 22-23 through this year is 254th.

Only problem with moving in from Dougie is no one is replacing the points from the backend

Kovy/dillon/pesce/Siegs are all primarily defensive

Dougie and Luke provide the offense but not so much Luke right now

Luke has more 5v5 pts this year. Casey has 1 fewer 5v5 primary pt lol. Dougie's lack of 5v5 production is partially due to bad shooting luck but he also only has 1 goals on 2.6 ixG so not like some massive difference. Dougie's not worth 9 mil as a PP specialist. Luke jumping into Dougie's PP1 spot while Casey jumps into Dougie's 3rd pair spot for 8 mil cheaper is better for the roster.

 

[HoliksGhost]

I’m fine with Hamilton playing out this year… we simply don’t have a suitable replacement (yet)

Knowing that Mikey McLeod was the perfect bottom six guy makes me hate him even more.

Ugh hated losing that type of 3-4th line skater

 

[Bcap88]

We are acting like Hamilton and Dillon aren’t in the upper half of xgf of 55 percent

Not like Hamilton is a liability at 5 on 5

Casey is not replacing that at 5 on 5

 

[dgibb10]

Only problem with moving in from Dougie is no one is replacing the points from the backend

Kovy/dillon/pesce/Siegs are all primarily defensive

Dougie and Luke provide the offense but not so much Luke right now

Or just the offense in general. With hamilton on the ice, elite level offense happens for us and every other team he's ever played for. This is a constant throughout his career and something that VERY few dman can do.

It is weirdly discounted here for some reason.

Since 16-17 in terms of on ice xGoals/60

11th
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
31st
28th
3rd (did not meet minimum 500 minutes but thats where he'd place)
11th (this year)

No, Seamus Casey cannot replicate or come close to that level of offensive driving at 21. It would be an EXCEPTIONAL outcome for him if he can do it when he's 27.

We are acting like Hamilton and Dillon aren’t in the upper half of xgf of 55 percent

Not like Hamilton is a liability at 5 on 5

Casey is not replacing that at 5 on 5

They hate dougie bc he's high event.

Yeah, he gives up a lot more chances (which they remember). He also creates a lot more, but since he doesn't do it with fancy skating, it's not remembered and he doesn't get credit for it

 

[My3Sons]

Or just the offense in general. With hamilton on the ice, elite level offense happens for us and every other team he's ever played for. This is a constant throughout his career and something that VERY few dman can do.

It is weirdly discounted here for some reason.

Since 16-17 in terms of on ice xGoals/60

11th
1st
1st
2nd
2nd
31st
28th
3rd (did not meet minimum 500 minutes but thats where he'd place)
11th (this year)

No, Seamus Casey cannot replicate or come close to that level of offensive driving at 21. It would be an EXCEPTIONAL outcome for him if he can do it when he's 27.


They hate dougie bc he's high event.

Yeah, he gives up a lot more chances (which they remember). He also creates a lot more, but since he doesn't do it with fancy skating, it's not remembered and he doesn't get credit for it

I agree that the two times Hamilton is healthy NJ has a good season. The two times he’s been badly hurt they floundered. Correlation or causation? I don’t know. I don’t think anyone is saying Hamilton isn’t good but despite your posting a lineup with him and Luke I think some of us remain skeptical the cap will work out that way.

 

[dgibb10]

They're definitely not the same stylistically but impact wise neither are all that good. I will say part of Cotter's struggles are that he and Haula are poison to each other. Holtz is a guy with a top 6 skillset but hasn't been good enough to make use of that. Cotter's a 4th liner who we've been playing on the 3rd. He skates fast in a straight line, throws some hits, and has some hands but he's also bad defensively and doesn't create much offense. I do think Cotter could have some success with Jack-Bratt as a placeholder until we upgrade (I mean who couldn't though lol) but they're not taking Palat out of that spot.

A big difference between Cotter and Wood is that Wood was a ball of f***ing chaos. He got pucks on net like crazy. From 2021 through 22-23 Wood was 19th among forwards in 5v5 shots/60. Cotter from 22-23 through this year is 254th.



Luke has more 5v5 pts this year. Casey has 1 fewer 5v5 primary pt lol. Dougie's lack of 5v5 production is partially due to bad shooting luck but he also only has 1 goals on 2.6 ixG so not like some massive difference. Dougie's not worth 9 mil as a PP specialist. Luke jumping into Dougie's PP1 spot while Casey jumps into Dougie's 3rd pair spot for 8 mil cheaper is better for the roster.

Here is luke vs Dougie the last 2 years on the PP.

Seems like a significant impact (and before you cry about PP1, luke spent 82/110 games on PP in this, dougie about 30/50

I agree that the two times Hamilton is healthy NJ has a good season. The two times he’s been badly hurt they floundered. Correlation or causation? I don’t know. I don’t think anyone is saying Hamilton isn’t good but despite your posting a lineup with him and Luke I think some of us remain skeptical the cap will work out that way.

The only reason we wouldn't be able to afford it is if we try and make a ill advised purchase of an expensive winger.

Fyi, taking Dougie off the team and replacing him with a winger for Jack and Bratt will hurt their offense more than help it.

 

[theoptimist]

Fitz roasted the bottom 6

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Do not much care at all if Seamus Casey can “replace” Hamilton’s offense next season — though I’m quite confident he’ll be a well above average offensive defenseman in the NHL. Very obviously has tremendous talent, showed that at Michigan, in his short stint here, and is currently dominating the AHL.

Dougie has been outscored at 5 on 5 this season and has looked mostly awful defensively (bottom 10 in the league for D in goals against/60). No brainer move that contract if possible.

Here is luke vs Dougie the last 2 years on the PP.

Seems like a significant impact (and before you cry about PP1, luke spent 82/110 games on PP in this, dougie about 30/50

View attachment 946348

That’s great, most of Luke’s games on PP1 were with one shoulder Jack Hughes and no Noesen.

 

[dgibb10]

Do not much care at all if Seamus Casey can “replace” Hamilton’s offense next season — though I’m quite confident he’ll be a well above average offensive defenseman in the NHL. Very obviously has tremendous talent, showed that at Michigan, in his short stint here, and is currently dominating the AHL.

Dougie has been outscored at 5 on 5 this season and has looked mostly awful defensively (bottom 10 in the league for D in goals against/60). No brainer move that contract if possible.


That’s great, most of Luke’s games on PP1 were with one shoulder Jack Hughes and no Noesen.

Seamus Casey was significantly worse defensively against significantly weaker competition.

NJD got belt to ass when casey was on the ice, and puts belt to ass with dougie on the ice.

One just got collassally bailed out by his goaltender while the other has been hung out to dry.

 

[My3Sons]

Here is luke vs Dougie the last 2 years on the PP.

Seems like a significant impact (and before you cry about PP1, luke spent 82/110 games on PP in this, dougie about 30/50

View attachment 946348


The only reason we wouldn't be able to afford it is if we try and make a ill advised purchase of an expensive winger.

Fyi, taking Dougie off the team and replacing him with a winger for Jack and Bratt will hurt their offense more than help it.

I just think folks are seeing too much cap tied up in defense once Luke signs and if they try to keep Kovacevic. Thr guy who should go to free up space for a winger for Jack and Bratt is Palat. I don’t think the Hamilton discussion has touched more than a bit on Hamilton out and a forward in but maybe I’m missing something?

 

[Cheddabombs]

Fitz also mentioned that Holtz is not having a good year in Vegas, seemed uncalled for to me tbh.

Wow yeah I just watched the presser, very uncalled for. The most surprising part was it was so unprompted. They were just about to wrap up and Fitz just added that comment in. Very odd.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Seamus Casey was significantly worse defensively against significantly weaker competition.

This isn’t how it works. You don’t look at a handful of games, the first NHL games the player has played, games that were with a struggling player, games that were with another righty — and then make any type of projection of what the player will look like in a year, in a different situation entirely. That is total foolishness.

 

[dgibb10]

I just think folks are seeing too much cap tied up in defense once Luke signs and if they try to keep Kovacevic. Thr guy who should go to free up space for a winger for Jack and Bratt is Palat. I don’t think the Hamilton discussion has touched more than a bit on Hamilton out and a forward in but maybe I’m missing something?

NJD can build a roster like this with just Palat out (who should be sent out) on a 93 mill cap.

Since obviously you aren't adding another dman or a more expensive goalie.

The only reason beyond this to need to clear out dougie's cap is to add a very expensive winger or a ridicuously priced 3C.

Or to try and keep palat while adding a winger, (but that pushes Bastian+one of Cotter, Haula, Lazar,Arseni,Noesen, Mercer to the press box)

or to keep palat and go after an excessively expensive 3C instead of an evans type.

This isn’t how it works. You don’t look at a handful of games, the first NHL games the player has played, games that were with a struggling player, games that were with another righty — and then make any type of projection of what the player will look like in a year, in a different situation entirely. That is total foolishness.

No what you don't do is blindly assume a guy who has not shown to be an effective NHLer can fill the shoes of one of the best offensive dmen in the league.

The list of dmen who are catalysts for offense on the level of dougie is a VERY short one