Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part II

dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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Extending Luke and keeping Dougie and Kovacevic is overkill on defense, in my opinion. I’d rather use some of that cap space to add a quality scoring forward and not just another third liner alongside Hughes-Bratt.

My biggest concern about extending Kovacevic before moving Dougie is you might back yourself into a corner in terms of value. Maybe if the Devils open up the market to include Hamilton, Nemec, and Casey, they can play suitors for Hamilton against suitors for Nemec/Casey.

Fitzgerald has been a pretty shrewd trader for the most part, so I’d be willing to give him a benefit of the doubt.

Plus let’s also be real here, this year is likely Dougie’s last as the top go-to offensive weapon, even if Luke won’t be the shooting threat Dougie is on PP1. If we wait another year to move him, odds are his role decreases and his value takes a hit too.
"I’d rather use some of that cap space to add a quality scoring forward and not just another third liner alongside Hughes-Bratt."

The "3rd scoring threat" has been tried multiple times now and it doesn't improve the effectiveness of the line.
 

Cheddabombs

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Mar 13, 2012
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Well he has to call out somebody else now that Holtz is gone.

He doesn't have to! "The bottom 6 still has some things to work on. They've clearly still been influenced from their time playing with Holtz, so will take some time to get that out of their system"
 
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MartyOwns

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Guys having a bit of fun after practice!

IMG_9703.gif
 

tailfins

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I think you are overestimating how much front offices will react to one season.

Hamilton is more likely to be on next years roster than Kovacevic.
That's fair.

But, that makes it more likely they need to bridge Luke.

Nothing is ideal here. Still, I'd rather be figuring out which talented players to keep than have the opposite problem, though
 
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dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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That's fair.

But, that makes it more likely they need to bridge Luke.

Nothing is ideal here. Still, I'd rather be figuring out which talented players to keep than have the opposite problem, though
There is no scenario where they need to bridge luke.

I'd recommend actually looking through the cap situation.

If we want to at a 94 mill cap, we can:

Sign luke to an 8 year deal
Resign Kovy
Keep Hamilton
and even keep Palat.

NJD can run back this entire team with the only modifications being Tatar-->Grits and Allen-->Daws if they want

Our cap situation is more than fine. Players only need to be moved out if you want to spend on bringing new ones in
Screenshot 2024-12-16 at 3.09.50 PM.png
 
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tailfins

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There is no scenario where they need to bridge luke.

I'd recommend actually looking through the cap situation.

If we want to at a 94 mill cap, we can:

Sign luke to an 8 year deal
Resign Kovy
Keep Hamilton
and even keep Palat.

NJD can run back this entire team with the only modifications being Tatar-->Grits and Allen-->Daws if they want

Our cap situation is more than fine. Players only need to be moved out if you want to spend on bringing new ones in
View attachment 946264
What site are you using? [Edit - I see it's PuckPedia]

I think you're missing potential bonus overages pushing into next year.

But, this is all hypothetical right now. Hopefully it plays out as you say.
 
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dgibb10

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What site are you using?

I think you're missing potential bonus overages pushing into next year
At most we will have 850k in rollovers (Luke will be the only one getting bonuses), and we are accruing space to pay for it currently. We'll see how much we add at the deadline in terms of Money in/money out and retention and using accrued space to fit larger deals.

There is virtually 0 cap crunch, even if you bring back Kovy.

Palat will likely be dumped if possible simply because he isn't worth his money which can be better accomadated to a 4C like Jake evans and ensuring we keep a decent backup G, but that's about all you need to do.

There is no scenario where NJD needs to bridge Luke.

Even longer term the cap is pretty fine.

It does not seem like Nemec will command a similar deal to luke anymore, which relieves any issues there.
Unless arseni or cotter explode next year they likely don't command massive raises (with Cotter being arb eligible).

Just be smart about not giving out stupid UFA deals and we will be perfectly okay.

What NJD does need to worry about long term is ensuring that we find a goaltending solution long term and it doesn't become a constant asset sink
 

dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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What site are you using? [Edit - I see it's PuckPedia]

I think you're missing potential bonus overages pushing into next year.

But, this is all hypothetical right now. Hopefully it plays out as you say.
Also, important note to you or anyone worried about the cost of dumping hamilton if we keep him next year and he declines.

After his bonus on July 1st, 2026, he makes just 6.25 mill total in real money for the final 2 years of his contract.

It is the perfect contract to ship out to a cheap team or owner looking for a quality dman.

3.125 mill in real money a year for the team acquiring Hamilton. I'm not worried about getting rid of him if we keep him next year
 
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Peter Sidorkiewicz

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Jake Sanderson is the right comp for a Luke Hughes deal. I dont want to pay him more than $8m per season. Hopefully the lack in offense this season (not that we have needed this from Luke with Dougie back) works in Fitz favor in contract negotiations.

As we are up against the cap, we can't afford to over pay our players. Especially with Palat on the team, making $3m more per season than he probably should.
 
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HBK27

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Devils have been fairly consistent throughout the season.

EDIT - adding the clarification that this is all cumulative. Still, rather consistent for NJ whereas Carolina and NYR are certainly trending down.

 
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MasterofGrond

No, I'm not serious.
Feb 13, 2009
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Devils have been fairly consistent throughout the season.

EDIT - adding the clarification that this is all cumulative. Still, rather consistent for NJ whereas Carolina and NYR are certainly trending down.


tracks with general narratives but also smooths out some of the PDO bounces, nice thing to look on but becomes less valuable as a week to week tool as the season progresses and the numbers move less

But, takeaways:
  • NYR and the Canes started playing excellent and have cooled off (Canes still very good).
  • Caps are playing above their expected numbers (obviously).
  • Avs decimated by injuries.
  • Edmonton good @ hockey
  • Jets been bad lately/product of Helle
  • Devils reliably good
  • Florida picking it up after a slower start
  • Philly/Pitt on the upswing (Pens still bad)
  • Vegas maybe a bit of a mirage (SEE WHAT I DID THERE?)
 
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Hisch13r

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His recent comps are all around 8-8.5 mil on long term deals. It’ll be in that range most likely.

I think around 8.5-9 likely makes more sense given rising cap and him being better than the comps. Anything under 9 is great. I don’t think it’d be over 9 but also over 9 would still be fine

Devils have been fairly consistent throughout the season.

EDIT - adding the clarification that this is all cumulative. Still, rather consistent for NJ whereas Carolina and NYR are certainly trending down.



Please go away Tampa. It’s been a decade of this shit. This makes me feel more confident in my evaluation that Tampa’s the best team in the East and a Cup favorite but also more annoyed by just how f***ing good they still are
 
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dgibb10

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Feb 29, 2024
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I think around 8.5-9 likely makes more sense given rising cap and him being better than the comps. Anything under 9 is great. I don’t think it’d be over 9 but also over 9 would still be fine



Please go away Tampa. It’s been a decade of this shit.
He's getting 8.6 for his jersey number x2
 

New Jerseys Devil

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Nov 25, 2024
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Hamilton, Pesce, Kovacevic, Nemec, and any prospects or two ways im missing or we get; thats a lot of defensemen for the right side!

Maybe Kovacevic isnt kept? Would we really trade Nemec? Would Hamilton want to leave? Good thing I dont get paid the big bucks! Lol
 

Hisch13r

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May 16, 2012
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Hamilton, Pesce, Kovacevic, Nemec, and any prospects or two ways im missing or we get; thats a lot of defensemen for the right side!

Maybe Kovacevic isnt kept? Would we really trade Nemec? Would Hamilton want to leave? Good thing I dont get paid the big bucks! Lol

I 100% keep Kovy if he keeps up his play. He’s been one of the best shutdown guys in the league on the best shutdown pair and one of the best pairs in the league. He was very good on a dog shit Montreal team as well. He's like Fitz/Keefe wet dream as well so I have a hard time believing they don't want to keep him.

Casey>Nemec. I'll acknowledge moving Nemec could blow back up on you but if the right deal is there for a comparable forward prospect or forward star in their prime currently I'm making that move (Kovy dependent)

I’d also definitely be shipping out Dougie. I cannot justify a 9 mil who is as brutal as he has been defensively this year. The guy only has 1 5v5 goal this year and 6 total 5v5 pts. The vast majority of his value is coming on the PP this year. Granted the PP is the best in the league but I have a hard time believing Dougie’s the engine behind this PP and it’d collapse if it was Luke or Casey running it. Maybe it’s not as good but he’s not worth that deal and especially not when we have other guys who could fill his role adequately and we could use his money to bolster the forwards.
 
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