Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[Oneiro]

View attachment 1033826

Larger Nate Bastian

Yup, seems about right for what Fitz would do. I'm just not holding my breath for something better. P. Suter is going to get overpaid, not sure who you trade for. Maybe he brings in Appleton or whoever.

 

[JimEIV]

It's debatable if Glass and Mercer are passable 3rd line centers. Can they fill in? Sure, are they what you go into a season banking on? I dunno.

Bratt could play LW. And just might if Grits and Ham's look like players in the next couple years.

Though I do agree Palat, Haula Cotter leave something to be desired once you get past Meier and maybe Bratt. But it's LW, not nearly as important as center.

That's kind of the point though.... it's debatable whether or not Glass or Mercer can play 3C....but it's really not debatable that neither Cotter or Palat are top 6 forwards.

I mean you could make it work if there was something better on the right side but there's not.

All of our top 4 wingers struggled to get 20 this year. Meier made his numbers look decent at the end...but before March he had 15 goals in 5 months of hockey.

 

[forceten]

Dougie’s contract isn’t really that bad in a vacuum.

 

[Zippy316]

There’s a great chance Dougie’s contract is movable, it really just depends what the Devils have to take back.

Odds are theyre going to have to take back an overpaid forward like Compher/Copp or an overpaid replacement defenseman like Dumba. It’s likely that dollars going in and out are going to be close to a wash, which wouldn’t be the end of the world if the Devils can address their needs and pick up some depth in the process.

Compher/Copp + Holl + pick or Marchment + Dumba makes some sense to me.

It’ll be deals like that we move Dougie in

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Catching up now and noticing a lot of Dougie talk. How are we getting rid of that contract?

ask him if he wants to go play with Zacha real nicely.

 

[dgibb10]

No thanks, I’d rather play my number 2 overall pick instead of benching him. Doubt he’s sticking around if that happens. I’m making the obvious trade and building a much better forward group.

When have I ever suggested benching Simon Nemec?

I have suggested benching or trading Brenden Dillon. But please continue to strawman.

It's always "Building a much better forward group" but consistently you without fail, never mention what that actually looks like.

It's just vague statements about "well we'll just get better forwards".

No thought as to what the term on those forwards looks like, the AAVs, the roles, etc. The longer term impact, how they fit, how it impacts roles (because you aren't just gonna run 4 offensive lines out there)


As I have shown you, NJD has 10 forwards more than capable of playing in an NHL lineup signed for next year.

Gritysuk, Mercer, Meier, Bratt, Jack, Hischier, Noesen, Cotter, Palat, Haula.

And if you disagree about Palat and Haula, YOU SHIP THEM OUT.

I have SHOWN you how awful the UFA class is combined with a cap spike, but hey that doesn't matter if you don't do any actual critical thinking.

As I have shown you, the idea that the 3rd winger on Jack or Nicos line makes a meaningful difference isn't true (and it's how we ended up with Palat in the first place, and assets on toffoli, and large assets on Meier). NJD was at it's best with Tatar, Mercer, and Haula in the top 6.

 

[devilsfan950003]

I'd be fine with Bastian on that RW. Or a Bastian Sprong rotation.

Bastian is an issue when the other guys on that line also can't score, but when the other guys have some offensive ability Bastian is a good defensive glue guy to make sure that line doesn't bleed goals against.

I'd re-sign Bastian and league minimum and Sprong on a two-way contract. Rotate those two. Bastian is sound defensively and Sprong offers some offensive upside and speed.

 

[dgibb10]

Not opposed to buying retention. If you had to speculate, who around the league could be acquired on retention? Probably looking at rebuilding teams or ones with underperformers (that is why the Pens traded Granlund btw, he was not nearly as effective as they wanted)

Retention opens up many more possibilities than you'd think. It allows you to pick your target and make him work for you, rather than confining yourself into the cap space you have.

I'd look at Copp/Compher, or Jason Dickinson, or maybe we like Ryan Strome. Backlund is ony 1 year but I'd go after him in a heartbeat (again, I have stated I think he's calgary's best forward). Maybe carolina doesn't like KK anymore and you buy retention instead of them buying him out as was discussed. Maybe if NJD really likes colton they go get 3rd party retention to bring him in. Or fitting in a guy like Danault. Or maybe it looks like buying retention on a 4C like a Yakov Trenin who appears to be out of favour in Min but who I've always liked, or ROR, or a Pageau type.

Or heck, what if you get REALLY insane with it and do a bringing in maybe a Sean Couturier retained to a price where he's now feasible to bring in as a 3C a la brent burns when Car grabbed him from SJS. Ngl thinking deeper I'd like a move like this a ton. (and briere has shown to be a guy willing to retain multi year on both Laughton and Hayes)

 

[dgibb10]

I could really care less if Dougie scores more goals on the PP because the PP looked as good with Luke running it. The goal is for anyone on the PP to score a goal, not just Dougie.

Even if the PP goes from 28% to 25%, who cares? That's literally 8 goals over the course of a season that can easily be made up with using that $9M to improve the forward group.

I don't even want much back for Dougie. Just get out of the contract.

It's a special kind of arrogance to say "meh we'll just still have a 25% power play" like it's no big deal. Even WITH both hamilton and luke just banking a 25% pp is no guarantee at all. Again, after dougie went down in 23-24 the PP was at 17% for the rest of the year.

And before you mention it. Jack played 15/20 games (75%) with dougie, and 47/62 games without dougie (75.8%)

Go back and look at the entire history of New Jersey. See how many PPs you can find at or near 25%

 

[Incharge1976]

It's a special kind of arrogance to say "meh we'll just still have a 25% power play" like it's no big deal. Even WITH both hamilton and luke just banking a 25% pp is no guarantee at all. Again, after dougie went down in 23-24 the PP was at 17% for the rest of the year.

And before you mention it. Jack played 15/20 games (75%) with dougie, and 47/62 games without dougie (75.8%)

Go back and look at the entire history of New Jersey. See how many PPs you can find at or near 25%

17% with a 20 year old Luke.

Your last statement is disingenuous since power play percentages are up across the entire league.

Devils won the cup with a 11% power play. It's overblown nonsense to care about a small drop-off between Luke and Dougie.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

When have I ever suggested benching Simon Nemec?

I have suggested benching or trading Brenden Dillon. But please continue to strawman.

It's always "Building a much better forward group" but consistently you without fail, never mention what that actually looks like.

It's just vague statements about "well we'll just get better forwards".

No thought as to what the term on those forwards looks like, the AAVs, the roles, etc. The longer term impact, how they fit, how it impacts roles (because you aren't just gonna run 4 offensive lines out there)


As I have shown you, NJD has 10 forwards more than capable of playing in an NHL lineup signed for next year.

Gritysuk, Mercer, Meier, Bratt, Jack, Hischier, Noesen, Cotter, Palat, Haula.

And if you disagree about Palat and Haula, YOU SHIP THEM OUT.

I have SHOWN you how awful the UFA class is combined with a cap spike, but hey that doesn't matter if you don't do any actual critical thinking.

As I have shown you, the idea that the 3rd winger on Jack or Nicos line makes a meaningful difference isn't true (and it's how we ended up with Palat in the first place, and assets on toffoli, and large assets on Meier). NJD was at it's best with Tatar, Mercer, and Haula in the top 6.

Dillon won’t be traded or benched. So now what?

Don’t know what you’re talking about with the bolded. Not particularly hard to understand how we can add better quality forwards with lots of extra cap space. Not sure why this needs to be explained, seems pretty simple?

Don’t much care about the UFA class, not sure why you think that’s the only way to improve the forward group. Don’t know what you’re talking about with the stupid comment about how no one but you and your genius brain thought about AAV or fit. Seems like basic stuff every poster takes into account all the time.

You aren’t doing much critical thinking, so you can drop the snark. The lack of critical thinking makes this pretty pointless, in fact.

 

[theoptimist]

Dougie’s contract isn’t really that bad in a vacuum.

What kind of vacuum?

 

[HoliksGhost]

Dougie’s contract isn’t really that bad in a vacuum.

Assuming he gets his shot back, which he clearly did not have when he returned for the playoffs. Big if.

 

[Triumph]

As I have shown you, the idea that the 3rd winger on Jack or Nicos line makes a meaningful difference isn't true (and it's how we ended up with Palat in the first place, and assets on toffoli, and large assets on Meier). NJD was at it's best with Tatar, Mercer, and Haula in the top 6.

This is incorrect for two reasons, I think -

NJD was at its best in a system that was built for it. The swarm defense combined with incredible transition offense was a machine, and the speed with which the Devils played in 22-23 up front meant that the Devils could just pin teams back for multiple shifts at a time. I don't think it's that helpful to look at results from 22-23 as though that's a place the Devils can return to, or a team structure that they can maintain - that ship sailed, rightly or wrongly. Part of how the Devils beat other teams so badly that year is because their system was different than what other teams were doing, and it was an adjustment to play against them. The system was maximally exploitative, but in turn was exploitable - Carolina was the perfect team to beat it, unfortunately. The Devils lost again to Carolina, but I do not feel like they were exploited, and they very well could've won a 7 game series if they had equivalent health.

Second, this is minimizing the contributions of players like Tatar, Mercer, and Haula - Tatar was an ideal third wheel on a line, I wish the Devils could find a player like this in UFA but they almost certainly cannot. Honestly, I don't know if players like this exist at all, or at least I'm struggling to think of them, but I don't know the league as well as I used to. The other two guys are less good, obviously, but Haula was unquestionably a better player then even if he couldn't hit the net for the first half of the season. That 22-23 team relied on its stars to make big plays and sometimes its complementary players to finish those off; that's not really where we're at now.

 

[Triumph]

Dillon won’t be traded or benched. So now what?

Don’t know what you’re talking about with the bolded. Not particularly hard to understand how we can add better quality forwards with lots of extra cap space. Not sure why this needs to be explained, seems pretty simple?

Don’t much care about the UFA class, not sure why you think that’s the only way to improve the forward group. Don’t know what you’re talking about with the stupid comment about how no one but you and your genius brain thought about AAV or fit. Seems like basic stuff every poster takes into account all the time.

You aren’t doing much critical thinking, so you can drop the snark. The lack of critical thinking makes this pretty pointless, in fact.

The UFA class makes it harder to upgrade because it means teams are going to be less inclined to trade as well. Only a few teams a year willingly create holes for future assets or to upgrade a different position - most teams want to be as strong as possible going into the season. I realize this sounds basic, but I do think getting a 3C that people are satisfied with is going to be an enormous task, because there are bad teams out there also competing for talent (and have more space to pay top dollar)

 

[dgibb10]

The UFA class makes it harder to upgrade because it means teams are going to be less inclined to trade as well. Only a few teams a year willingly create holes for future assets or to upgrade a different position - most teams want to be as strong as possible going into the season. I realize this sounds basic, but I do think getting a 3C that people are satisfied with is going to be an enormous task, because there are bad teams out there also competing for talent (and have more space to pay top dollar)

Getting 1 guy (a quality 3C) is viable.

Trying to shake around to move around cap and completely rehaul the bottom 6 is not

 

[dgibb10]

This is incorrect for two reasons, I think -

NJD was at its best in a system that was built for it. The swarm defense combined with incredible transition offense was a machine, and the speed with which the Devils played in 22-23 up front meant that the Devils could just pin teams back for multiple shifts at a time. I don't think it's that helpful to look at results from 22-23 as though that's a place the Devils can return to, or a team structure that they can maintain - that ship sailed, rightly or wrongly. Part of how the Devils beat other teams so badly that year is because their system was different than what other teams were doing, and it was an adjustment to play against them. The system was maximally exploitative, but in turn was exploitable - Carolina was the perfect team to beat it, unfortunately. The Devils lost again to Carolina, but I do not feel like they were exploited, and they very well could've won a 7 game series if they had equivalent health.

Second, this is minimizing the contributions of players like Tatar, Mercer, and Haula - Tatar was an ideal third wheel on a line, I wish the Devils could find a player like this in UFA but they almost certainly cannot. Honestly, I don't know if players like this exist at all, or at least I'm struggling to think of them, but I don't know the league as well as I used to. The other two guys are less good, obviously, but Haula was unquestionably a better player then even if he couldn't hit the net for the first half of the season. That 22-23 team relied on its stars to make big plays and sometimes its complementary players to finish those off; that's not really where we're at now.

I'm not saying Haula Tatar and Mercer weren't good or minimizing their contributions. What they were is complimentary guys. 3rd wheels exactly. which is what I think we need, what I believe we can fill in internally or with cheaper acquisitions (eg Mercer again, and finding 1 other guy, whether thats Grits, or Palat, or a complimentary deadline addition if we cannot).

Fit with Jack+Bratt matters WAY more than getting some guy who was PP1 and 19 minutes a night on some other team only to watch his production inevitably drop off when we cannot offer said role

I think that Gritysuk, Mercer, Jack, Nico, Bratt, Mercer is enough to bring in a very good top 6. Even last year, the top 6 was very good when healthy. I think (and the numbers heavily back this up) that Dougie Hamilton is massively important to the success of the top 6 however.

Mercer-Nico-Meier
Gritysuk-Jack-Bratt - Here are 4 big stars to make plays and complimentary guys to help finish it
Palat-3C-Noesen - I think Palat is still a more than capable middle 6 winger IF he's with an actually good C. If you disagree here, I understand, but I would suggest dumping Palat at that point.
Cotter-Glass-4RW
bastian/lazar type scratch
sprong type scratch
Siegs-Hamilton
Luke-Pesce
Dillon-Nemec
to start the year.

Haulas last year would probably have to go.

Then when Kovy comes back (assuming no other injuries) you move Pesce over and Dillon out (or realistically whoever is playing at the lowest level, everything earned nothing given).

You probably make a nice little complimentary wing add at the deadline

After this year, you then look to move Hamilton (assuming Luke has shown a full year of consistency instead of half a year and/or Nemec has proven himself over a full year again), and use the savings to extend Cotter/Gritysuk/Nemec on their RFA deals. Bring Lenni into the lineup as a middle 6 forward (probably moving Noesen down tbh), and depending on Glass's performance + the term you had on the 3C you brought in he may move up

 

[dgibb10]

Dillon won’t be traded or benched. So now what?

Don’t know what you’re talking about with the bolded. Not particularly hard to understand how we can add better quality forwards with lots of extra cap space. Not sure why this needs to be explained, seems pretty simple?

Don’t much care about the UFA class, not sure why you think that’s the only way to improve the forward group. Don’t know what you’re talking about with the stupid comment about how no one but you and your genius brain thought about AAV or fit. Seems like basic stuff every poster takes into account all the time.

You aren’t doing much critical thinking, so you can drop the snark. The lack of critical thinking makes this pretty pointless, in fact.

Hey look. Another post where you still fail to make any real plans or ideas.

Sure, UFA isn't the only way (but it's the main way). Where are these trades coming from. What holes are they filling? How much term do they have.

You have stated that getting a 3C is not enough.

So what are the other positions to upgrade.

Mercer and Gritysuk as complimentary top 6 forwards.
Palat and Noesen on the 3rd line wings
Cotter as a 4LW
Glass as a 4C.
And a regular old 12th forward like bastian at 4RW.

Highlight what you actually want the forward core to look like. lines, roles, approximate AAVs, approximate levels of talent, approximate term left, how much are you going to pay in trade? Are you trading a 1st+casey, or 2nds, or what? Who's being pushed out of the lineup?

When inevitably some players have down years next year, will you ship them out too and dump them? Is this the plan forever, to just every time a player has a year you don't like we look to sell low on them and buy high on someone else?

 

[JK3]

And you guys thought I was annoying with the silly assistant stuff yesterday. Sure a bit over the top and worrying about nothing buy holy hell.

 

[dgibb10]

Dougie’s contract isn’t really that bad in a vacuum.

Comparing him to Chychrun who just got 9x8 (as a lefty)

 

[Cheddabombs]

We all know it takes two to tango (Fitz patent pending) but I think Dougie could be pretty easily be moved given some of the other deals we see around the league. And I'd be moving on from Dougie this offseason for sure. I have big concerns on how good his shot is anymore, and if Slugie doesn't have his shot then he doesn't have much else.

 

[JK3]

It's not so much should we move on from Dougie (ABSOLUTELY 100% YES). Buuuuttttttttttt if Kovy is down for a while, will he come back by Thanksgiving or Jan-Feb next year? It all hinges on if the team is willing to run with Pesce, Nemec and Casey, pretty sketchy. If Kovy was healthy it's a no brainer, off to the glue factory and the money can be spent elsewhere.

 

[Zacha37]

It's not so much should we move on from Dougie (ABSOLUTELY 100% YES). Buuuuttttttttttt if Kovy is down for a while, will he come back by Thanksgiving or Jan-Feb next year? It all hinges on if the team is willing to run with Pesce, Nemec and Casey, pretty sketchy. If Kovy was healthy it's a no brainer, off to the glue factory and the money can be spent elsewhere.

I’m hoping that doesn’t stop them from making a move. Freeing up that 9 mill would change everything.

 

[Zippy316]

If the Devils move on from Hamilton, they almost certainly get another RHD even if it’s just a depth DeSimone/Stetcher type.

Odds are they probably get that defensemen as part of the Hamilton trade (let’s say Holl or Dumba from their respective teams).

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Hey look. Another post where you still fail to make any real plans or ideas.

Sure, UFA isn't the only way (but it's the main way). Where are these trades coming from. What holes are they filling? How much term do they have.

You have stated that getting a 3C is not enough.

So what are the other positions to upgrade.

Mercer and Gritysuk as complimentary top 6 forwards.
Palat and Noesen on the 3rd line wings
Cotter as a 4LW
Glass as a 4C.
And a regular old 12th forward like bastian at 4RW.

Highlight what you actually want the forward core to look like. lines, roles, approximate AAVs, approximate levels of talent, approximate term left, how much are you going to pay in trade? Are you trading a 1st+casey, or 2nds, or what? Who's being pushed out of the lineup?

When inevitably some players have down years next year, will you ship them out too and dump them? Is this the plan forever, to just every time a player has a year you don't like we look to sell low on them and buy high on someone else?

You’re free to sort through 2026-2027 UFAs to see what players with the kind of term you want are available. Just a short list of players with modest term: McCann, Danault, Coleman, O’Reilly, Crouse, Colton, Schmaltz, Pageau, Garland, Backlund, Marchment, Sissons, Lizotte, Sherwood. With a bit more term: Rakell, Schenn, Hoglander.

Anyone with a semi-functioning brain can understand that having 9 million dollars freed up changes the way you can construct the roster. It would also be nice to have another pick that can be flipped for a player. And again, for the 80th time, RHD is log jammed. Nemec is playing, and I don’t want any righty righty pairings. That alone is enough for me, but there are many other reasons to deal him.

Is the last part of the post serious? Really? You can’t see why the HIGHEST PAID PLAYER ON THE ROSTER at a position we’re loaded in is a unique circumstance? We wouldn’t be “selling low” on him either. There is very likely a new bottom that can be tested if he suffers another injury or gets even worse defensively. We wouldn’t even be able to trade him if we wanted to in that case. It’s possible there aren’t many takers as it stands.