Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason edition

[NJDevs26]

Replacing Brendan Dillon with a kid: impossible
Replacing Dougie Hamilton with a kid: basically the same

Checks out to me.

Why do I even bother?

Yes it's a lot less likely to replace Dillon with a kid than Dougie because NEMEC AND CASEY ARE BOTH RIGHTIES. You're not replacing Dillon with a kid since there isn't a LH close to ready, you're replacing him with someone playing their off side (which isn't ideal) or re-signing Dumoulin which would be by far the likeliest outcome if Dillon was traded in the next six weeks. And I don't even think Casey's a likely solution to play next year but he's still closer than any option on the left side.

Dougie is not a great 5-on-5 defenseman no matter how many goal stats you want to throw out, he's slightly above average 5-on-5 and great on the power play (though how long either remains the case is questionable). You can replace the former, the latter not as much but you're also not keeping a declining 30+ guy indefinitely at $9 million just to fill that role.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This roster has 3.5 mill in space.

If you need 11.5 mill to fill these 2 spots, you're doing it wrong. (and it's how you end up with contracts you regret in a few years)
View attachment 1033049

Don’t think so. And it’s not a matter of “needing” 11.5 million, it’s just an efficient use of the cap. We lack depth at forward, we have lots of depth at right handed D. Too much, in fact. Pesce-Kovy-Nemec is just fine, with Casey ready soon enough.

I would happily add a well paid but still solid 3C if they have a year or 2 of term left. A Pageau, a Danault. Not happening with Dougie on the roster next season. We’re doing something closer to dumpster diving if he’s still here. We’ll still have a good team, but it’s far from optimal team building.

 

[dgibb10]

Why do I even bother?

Yes it's a lot less likely to replace Dillon with a kid than Dougie because NEMEC AND CASEY ARE BOTH RIGHTIES. You're not replacing Dillon with a kid since there isn't a LH close to ready, you're replacing him with someone playing their off side (which isn't ideal) or re-signing Dumoulin which is the likeliest outcome if Dillon was traded in the next six weeks. And I don't even think Casey's a likely solution to play next year but he's closer than any option on the left side.

Pesce has played the left side (and frankly you'd bring in a veteran DEPTH guy like a forbort on the left side just in case, and immediately upon injury you'd just slide pesce back (or where he would start the season anyway with Kovy out).

Or again, you just grab a dumoulin at the deadline if you need to.

Casey should not be in the discussion as anything more than an injury replacement in the AHL who's waiver exempt

Pesce-Nemec
Luke-Kovy
Siegs-Hamilton

>>>>>>>

Luke-Pesce
Siegs-Kovy
Dillon-Nemec

 

[dgibb10]

Don’t think so. And it’s not a matter of “needing” 11.5 million, it’s just an efficient use of the cap. We lack depth at forward, we have lots of depth at right handed D. Too much, in fact. Pesce-Kovy-Nemec is just fine, with Casey ready soon enough.

I would happily add a well paid but still solid 3C if they have a year or 2 of term left. A Pageau, a Danault. Not happening with Dougie on the roster next season. We’re doing something closer to dumpster diving if he’s still here. We’ll still have a good team, but it’s far from optimal team building.

Simple, crazy solution.

Spend some draft capital for some retention on a 3C instead of shipping off an elite dman.

5 mill is really easy to fit if you want tbh. Either buy retention or ship haula out

See what Toronto did with Laughton, Carlo, McCabe, what we did with Markstrom, etc etc.

 

[NJDevs26]

Pesce has played the left side (and frankly you'd bring in a veteran DEPTH guy like a forbort on the left side just in case, and immediately upon injury you'd just slide pesce back (or where he would start the season anyway with Kovy out).

Or again, you just grab a dumoulin at the deadline if you need to.

Casey should not be in the discussion as anything more than an injury replacement in the AHL who's waiver exempt

Pesce-Nemec
Luke-Kovy
Siegs-Hamilton

>>>>>>>

Luke-Pesce
Siegs-Kovy
Dillon-Nemec

If they thought Pesce (or any of the other righties) on the left side was a long-term ideal solution they wouldn't have signed two other guys for multiple years on the left side, with Luke upcoming.

They bottlenecked themselves on the right side with the Kovacevic contract and now they have to make a decision, keep Dougie and trade Nemec or the reverse and in a cap system you'd rather keep the younger, cheaper guy even if he's clearly not as good now. Nemec in the minors again is not going to fly next year, especially after his playoff breakout and the admission he was hurt the whole year, he has to be playing full-time or traded.

 

[dgibb10]

If they thought Pesce (or any other other righties) on the left side was a long-term ideal solution they wouldn't have signed three guys for multiple years on the left side.

They signed 1 guy for multiple years on the left side?? In dillon.

The plan was luke-Pesce, siegs-hamilton, dillon-nemec

And then things changed since Kovacevic ended up being way better than anticipated. They have not signed any LHD since.

 

[NJDevs26]

They signed 1 guy for multiple years on the left side?? In dillon.

The plan was luke-Pesce, siegs-hamilton, dillon-nemec

And then things changed since Kovacevic ended up being way better than anticipated. They have not signed any LHD since.

Fitz handed out the Siegs deal too...and Luke is about to sign for multiple years, that's three.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Simple, crazy solution.

Spend some draft capital for some retention on a 3C instead of shipping off an elite dman.

5 mill is really easy to fit if you want tbh. Either buy retention or ship haula out

See what Toronto did with Laughton, Carlo, McCabe, what we did with Markstrom, etc etc.

I would much rather add draft capital and cap space by trading Dougie Hamilton.

This time next year Dougie may not even be all that good anymore, if we’re being honest. Another year older. He’s already a terrible skater and has suffered another significant injury. You can make an argument that it’s time to move on without even fixating on the contract.

It’s usually best to move on a bit early than a bit late.

 

[dgibb10]

Fitz handed out the Siegs deal too...and Luke is about to sign for multiple years, that's three.

Siegs got extended before 22-23 even happened. What are you even talking about.

Luke has not been extended yet.

You aren't even making sense.

"NJD has 3 LHD therefore they have no trust in any RHD to sub in on the left side". If they had 4 LHD it would make more sense (because you sign the extra LHD in case of injury so you don't have to slide one over"

In reality the opposite is true. NJD has EXACTLY 3 LHD. The extra NHL guy they had for a large chunk year was DeSimone (another righty).

It was a given that with any injury, a righty was gonna have to play his offside (as happened multiple times throughout the year).

 

[None Shall Pass]

Salary cap issues are lessened if we can bridge Luke. Especially as the cap will be going up significantly over the next few years while our more anchor-ish contracts drop off or naturally reduce in length.

I get that we were in a spot to pay Nico and Jack big contracts that bet on future performance (And thankfully it worked, that's not guaranteed remember), but the cap space isn't here this time without some serious effort.

If you tell him that we can do a 2 year, $5M AV (or whatever, I dunno) contract, and then he'll get 8 years, $10M when the cap goes up and he's eligible for an extension, fudge the numbers a little bit in either direction, that'd probably end up netting him more money anyway.

I'm also weary of paying him too much now in general. He's only played 2 full seasons and is a young defender. Seen enough Ty Smiths and Will Butchers to know that you want all the information you can get on a guy with offensive talent and questionable defense before committing long-term big money to them. Admittedly, I'm far more bullish on Luke than I ever was with those two, but he has to learn how to play in his own zone and put up more consistent points before I feel comfortable paying him Dougie money. I think he's earned the benefit of the doubt that he will deserve it, but its still too risky to me, anyway.

 

[Forge]

Salary cap issues are lessened if we can bridge Luke. Especially as the cap will be going up significantly over the next few years while our more anchor-ish contracts drop off or naturally reduce in length.

I have 0 interest in bridging Luke and think that would be a mistake

 

[None Shall Pass]

I have 0 interest in bridging Luke and think that would be a mistake

Good, well thought out point, nevermind.

 

[dgibb10]

I would much rather add draft capital and cap space by trading Dougie Hamilton.

This time next year Dougie may not even be all that good anymore, if we’re being honest. Another year older. He’s already a terrible skater and has suffered another significant injury. You can make an argument that it’s time to move on without even fixating on the contract.

It’s usually best to move on a bit early than a bit late.

This UFA class is really bad.

Combine that with a cap spike and it is NOT the year to be trying to fix the ENTIRE bottom 6.

You know what you'll likely end up with with this 12 mill on 2 guys (or 13 on 3) for the bottom 6? A couple Haula's and a Palat.

Older guys, who you have to give too much term and too much money too.



I am really not worried about the last 2 years of Dougies deal if we need to offload it. His 26-27 base salary is just 1 million dollars. In fact, this is when I FULLY support moving off of him and moving some of his money into a Nemec extension.

Again, I think most of you guys haven't thought much beyond "9 mill big number we need forward depth"

 

[Billdo]

I wonder if a Kings-Stars-Devils trade could work:

To LA
- Robertson

To Dallas
- Dougie (2m retained)
- 2nd rounder LA
- 2nd Rounder NJ

To Devils
- Turcotte
- Laferriere
- Bourque
- Dumba

From Dallas
- Bourque
- Dumba
- Robertson

From LA
- Laferriere
- Turcotte
- 2nd rounder

From NJ
- Hamilton (@7m)
- 2nd rounder

This is absolutely horrific for Dallas. Great for us but very bad for for everyone else, especially Dallas.

 

[dgibb10]

This is 4 mill in cap space left. You can grab another scratch to put it to 3. (kovy out of lineup while injured)

Buy retention on whatever 3C the f*** (or if you want to get riskier you want to, go after a younger RFA type)

Supplement at the deadline.

 

[Forge]

Good, well thought out point, nevermind.

I don't think I need to write a novel to explain why I don't think it's a great idea to bridge someone I think it's a burgeoning superstar

I think most people on here probably could understand why I think it's a mistake without me having to explain it that much

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

This UFA class is really bad.

Combine that with a cap spike and it is NOT the year to be trying to fix the ENTIRE bottom 6.

You know what you'll likely end up with with this 12 mill on 2 guys (or 13 on 3) for the bottom 6? A couple Haula's and a Palat.

Older guys, who you have to give too much term and too much money too.



I am really not worried about the last 2 years of Dougies deal if we need to offload it. His 26-27 base salary is just 1 million dollars. In fact, this is when I FULLY support moving off of him and moving some of his money into a Nemec extension.

Again, I think most of you guys haven't thought much beyond "9 mill big number we need forward depth"

Doesn’t take very much thinking. Quick question, who are you benching, Brett Pesce (5.5 million), Johnny Kovacevic (4 million), or Simon Nemec (#2 overall pick)? I’m aware Kovy won’t be ready to start next year, but that doesn’t matter very much for this conversation.

It’s crazy that you’re really trying to argue the inarguable — that it’s not way easier to bolster the forward depth without the massive chunk of change dedicated to our bottom pairing RHD.

 

[dgibb10]

Doesn’t take very much thinking. Quick question, who are you benching, Brett Pesce (5.5 million), Johnny Kovacevic (4 million), or Simon Nemec (#2 overall pick)? I’m aware Kovy won’t be ready to start next year, but that doesn’t matter very much for this conversation.

It’s crazy that you’re really trying to argue the inarguable — that it’s not way easier to bolster the forward depth without the massive chunk of change dedicated to our bottom pairing RHD.

I'm sitting down Brenden Dillon.

I think he's very clearly worse than all 6 of the other dmen on the team.

You are complaining about 9 mill on a PP1 dman, meanwhile you'd be looking at a 25 mill or so bottom 6 forward group

Hamilton plays 20 minutes a night.

These depth forwards you're talking about bringing in would be playing like 10-13.

 

[NJDevs26]

Doesn’t take very much thinking. Quick question, who are you benching, Brett Pesce (5.5 million), Johnny Kovacevic (4 million), or Simon Nemec (#2 overall pick)? I’m aware Kovy won’t be ready to start next year, but that doesn’t matter very much for this conversation.

It’s crazy that you’re really trying to argue the inarguable — that it’s not way easier to bolster the forward depth without the massive chunk of change dedicated to our bottom pairing RHD.

His entire solution is move Pesce to the left side permanently, and off Dillon (in which case you know they're just gonna want to bring back Dumoulin anyway). There's no arguing with him since he's a bigger Dougie fanboy than Jim is with Mercer, and he has that one narrow solution set in his mind, as if they would trade Dillon just to make room for Pesce on the left side.

Siegs-Dillon-Luke on the left side all signed for at least the next two years (assuming even in a worst-case Luke's bridge is that or three years) doesn't exactly scream a 'we have the flexibility or desire to move Pesce over' as anything longer than a stopgap situation.

 

[dgibb10]

His entire solution is either move Pesce to the left side permanently, or off Dillon (in which case you know they're just gonna want to bring back Dumoulin anyway).

Kovy is out to start the year. So nobody out of position there.

Assuming all the RHD stay healthy all year, we are looking at about 60 games on the left for Pesce.

At which point, you will then, heading into 26-27, move off Hamilton and his 1 million dollar base salary in 26-27 and extend Nemec. Moving Pesce back to the right side.

 

[dgibb10]

His entire solution is move Pesce to the left side permanently, and off Dillon (in which case you know they're just gonna want to bring back Dumoulin anyway). There's no arguing with him since he's a bigger Dougie fanboy than Jim is with Mercer, and he has that one narrow solution set in his mind, as if they would trade Dillon just to make room for Pesce on the left side.

Siegs-Dillon-Luke on the left side all signed for at least the next two years (assuming even in a worst-case Luke's bridge is that or three years) doesn't exactly scream a 'we have the flexibility or desire to move Pesce over' as anything longer than a stopgap situation.

Why is Siegs (3 years)-Dillon (2 years)-Luke (unsigned) unchanging and locked in, but Pesce (5 years) -Hamilton (3 years)-Kovy (5 years) is not?

 

[NJDevs26]

Why is Siegs (3 years)-Dillon (2 years)-Luke (unsigned) unchanging and locked in, but Pesce (5 years) -Hamilton (3 years)-Kovy (5 years) is not?

Of course the right side is locked in...hence my earlier post about Fitz boxing himself in on the right side and basically forcing a decision on moving Hamilton or moving Nemec. You can't count on an injury to fix your issues unless you're Lou and get the injury gods to give you hernia surgery for Brian Rolston in 2010. As it stands now, Nemec is only a starter as long as Kovacevic is out which could only be a few weeks into the season. We know he's gonna complain if he's the #7 D or in the minors again next year and he'd have a right to this time tbh.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm sitting down Brenden Dillon.

I think he's very clearly worse than all 6 of the other dmen on the team.

You are complaining about 9 mill on a PP1 dman, meanwhile you'd be looking at a 25 mill or so bottom 6 forward group

Hamilton plays 20 minutes a night.

These depth forwards you're talking about bringing in would be playing like 10-13.

We have another near 9 million dollar PP1 dman starting next season. Luke Hughes. Which is why Dougie Hamilton should be on the move soon. Has a team ever won a cup allocating that much cap to the D? Very doubtful, because it’s horribly inefficient and pretty foolish. It’s not as though we have a couple forwards on ELCs providing value. We need cap to make our forwards better.

 

[dgibb10]

Of course the right side is locked in...hence my earlier post about Fitz boxing himself in on the right side and basically forcing a decision on moving Hamilton or moving Nemec. You can't count on an injury to fix your issues unless you're Lou and get the injury gods to give you hernia surgery for Brian Rolston in 2010. As it stands now, Nemec is only a starter as long as Kovacevic is out which could only be a few weeks into the season. We know he's gonna complain if he's the #7 D or in the minors again next year and he'd have a right to this time tbh.

Or, hear me out, we take the 34 year old dman who is clearly significantly worse than all the other dmen out of the lineup.

1 year for Pesce (who's done it before) on the left side is not going to kill him.

And if it does. You put Dillon back in the lineup and take whoever is injured/performing worst out.

If Nemec isn't good enough to win a spot, that frankly says enough to me.

 

[Oneiro]

I really don't envy the management staff this year.

You basically have to swap 20M on the roster over two seasons, most of it this summer if you can, all for middle tier players, who are the toughest to value properly against the cap.