Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - draft and FA edition

[ScottyK]

My bold predictions for the Devils this summer:

Dougie Hamilton is traded to San Jose.

Ondrej Palat is traded to Anaheim.

Devils acquire Bryan Rust from Pittsburgh.

Devils sign Nikolaj Ehlers.

Only the Rust move is realistic here. You picked the wrong Cali team for Palat

 

[BostonDevil]

Our defense is a decent avg size, if we lose Dougie it'll it will go down a little, he's a big dude.
Our forward groups (sans McDermid) average weight is 194 lbs,
I'd love to have an Arnnott or Holik in the forward group, one or two big boys that also show up on the score sheet and are hard to play against, not fighters not goons but size and skill

Wait, we are counting on Dougie using his size to defend??

100% agree up front, but we don't have the luxury of picking up an Arnott or Holik at this point. Like I said before, it's hard to find a guy just floating out there for ~5M or less, who does all those things. If I had the choice of guys we could get in our price range, I would take a kid who has a 10% chance of getting 60 points and sucks defensively than another guy who's "tough to play against" and ceiling is 20 points. We've seen what it's got us. Haula/Palat/Noesen (don't mind him)/Cotter/Lazar/MacD/etc.

Tough to play against two years ago with this team meant that nobody could keep up and we always had the puck.

We need to stop trying to build Panthers 2.0 and lean into the talent and style of the elite players we already have.

 

[njdevils1982]

It's too hot outside for some of these posts

im inside and can hear some prick is blasting f***ing gino beats from his house two doors over. its driving me mental.

 

[Clam Jensen]

the face I made watching that video is difficult to describe.

same face as when I watched 2 girls 1 cup back in the day.

Grinning from ear to ear?

 

[Cheddabombs]

bro i’m in florida, the heat outside is why i’m posting

 

[Clam Jensen]

bro i’m in florida, the heat outside is why i’m posting

NJ is basically Florida right now too:

 

[Incharge1976]

sure, hamilton is big but plays like a teddy bear

wish he used his size to his advantage

The target needs to be practically standing still for that to happen at this point in Dougie's career.

 

[JK3]

Just drink a lot of water, it'll clear up.

But doc, it hurts when I pee.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Honestly the worst part of that video if Fitz espousing the whole "Do they have a floor? What if it doesn't work out? What can they be?" mantra.

As far as I'm concerned that's a failure mindset, you draft for ceiling, period. End of discussion. If you're drafting players already assuming they'll fall short of expectations and hoping you can salvage a 4th line JAG instead of an ECHL scrub who never makes it to the show, you're already cooked. That's how you end up wasting first round picks on bums like Chase Stillman.

Contending teams can always find affordable depth players willing to take a pay cut and chase a cup, no successful team is prioritizing their ability to find 4th liners in the draft. Those teams contend because they have a core of elite talent that will be successful regardless of who's on the 4th line.

It's like buying 10 lottery tickets and hoping you hit the $5 prize on four of them instead of the $1 million jackpot on one. Moronic.

The Ceiling/Floor Dichotomy is dumb. You're drafting a player and there's a multitude of variables that goes into evaluating and projecting that player. Oversimplifying that complex evaluation and projection process into "just draft for ceiling" is completely missing the plot.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Wait, we are counting on Dougie using his size to defend??

100% agree up front, but we don't have the luxury of picking up an Arnott or Holik at this point. Like I said before, it's hard to find a guy just floating out there for ~5M or less, who does all those things. If I had the choice of guys we could get in our price range, I would take a kid who has a 10% chance of getting 60 points and sucks defensively than another guy who's "tough to play against" and ceiling is 20 points. We've seen what it's got us. Haula/Palat/Noesen (don't mind him)/Cotter/Lazar/MacD/etc.

Tough to play against two years ago with this team meant that nobody could keep up and we always had the puck.

We need to stop trying to build Panthers 2.0 and lean into the talent and style of the elite players we already have.

You hold on to Dougie for the offense he creates. We struggled to score so badly last year. If indeed we don’t have the cap for more than a tweak here or there, for the money Hamilton - in 2023 form (do I have the year right) gives you 20 goals and nearly a point a game from the back end. That’s solid gold for his money if we have some of the same issues next year as we did this one.

Move him and we very well may not replace that production.

Big “If” is whether Dougie will be that player again

 

[BostonDevil]

You hold on to Dougie for the offense he creates. We struggled to score so badly last year. If indeed we don’t have the cap for more than a tweak here or there, for the money Hamilton - in 2023 form (do I have the year right) gives you 20 goals and nearly a point a game from the back end. That’s solid gold for his money if we have some of the same issues next year as we did this one.

Move him and we very well may not replace that production.

Big “If” is whether Dougie will be that player again

Yep - Dougie goes out to bring in offense. Ideally, Quinn would be that offense.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Apparently we can't lose sight of our identity. I'm not sure what that identity is, but we must not lose sight of it.

We move in secrecy, like the Men in Black. We also change it annually.

@JK3 , a Nico and Jack men in black photoshop would go hard. And would gladly be stolen as an avatar.

 

[thebeernerd]

Some of you are so out of pocket with your pessimism that it’s rubbing off on me a little. Can it just be the damn draft already?

 

[Emperoreddy]

At this point, I prefer to live in fantasy land where the Devs have a competent front office capable of tough decisions: Realizing the season was cooked and they were short on offseason assets / cap with MAJOR forward gaps to fill, they moved Kovacevic for a 1st+ or a C prospect and Allen retained to, say, Edmonton for 2025 3rd and 26 2nd. Devs then have assets and needed cap to go after required C/forward help. A guy can dream.

No one cares

 

[Devils731]

Some of you are so out of pocket with your pessimism that it’s rubbing off on me a little. Can it just be the damn draft already?

Oh a draft where the Devils don’t have a first round pick?!?!? What are we going to watch the whole first day and not hear about the Devils once?!?!?

 

[MadDevil]

Some of you are so out of pocket with your pessimism that it’s rubbing off on me a little. Can it just be the damn draft already?

"See, we could have had (insert player) if we hadn't traded for Markstrom! Fire Fitz!"

 

[Oneiro]

I dislike the way Dennehy and Fitz put things for many reasons but the biggest one is the guys you'd call depth or complementary players on cup winning teams were all either top 100 picks or veterans. Trade capital is half the reason you shoot high in later rounds - you need to pick players people want.

It's pathetic that Fitz hasn't been able to generate capital remotely close to Shero who himself was average at best drafting. You'd think that f***ing up Holtz, Stillman and Mercer stalling out with only Lenni in the wings would cause some self-reflection. There is nothing worse than ditching a process that was working and the team is still benefiting from today. And we are now being hurt by whatever adjustment was made - a whole season pissed away because you have no depth scoring because you got nothing for 4+ years up front.

 

[NJDfan86]

Oh a draft where the Devils don’t have a first round pick?!?!? What are we going to watch the whole first day and not hear about the Devils once?!?!?

Probably for the best since we all know Fitz would screw the pick up anyway.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Ummm. 2 of these can not be true at the same time, no.

would you like me to repeat myself?

 

[thebeernerd]

Listen, I’ve soured a little on Fitz in the past year, and the points about forward depth going to rot on his watch are extremely valid. But picking apart a bunch of nothing statements in a two minute video released by the team is pretty lame.

 

[NJDfan86]

The Ceiling/Floor Dichotomy is dumb. You're drafting a player and there's a multitude of variables that goes into evaluating and projecting that player. Oversimplifying that complex evaluation and projection process into "just draft for ceiling" is completely missing the plot.

Only if you define floor as “worst case scenario NHLer”. Every NHL draftee/signee has a floor of nothing and a ceiling of best player ever mathematically.

The definition of “just draft for ceiling” is likewise fluid - if that’s “just draft the best player available” (ceiling), that’s a bit more defensible no?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

If you're still belly aching about Fitz in the middle of dead summer, it's going to fall on deaf ears. I've already outlined multiple times his issues and we've spent ad nauseam with what he's done to this team via the drafting and mostly on the forward side. His very wishy washy nature has been sometimes good and sometimes bad. He's not someone to lose your temper at per se. He's a GM, he's in a position that's temporary. That being said, this team is fine long term, they have everything to win a Stanley Cup compared to previous winners. They're close and arguably would be closer if Fitz didn't go size queen brain but here we are at a cross roads with this core and the smaller elements of this team being an issue. He doesn't fix it, he'll be fired, no point in crying over spilled milk. If he fixes it, they'll be a contender.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I dislike the way Dennehy and Fitz put things for many reasons but the biggest one is the guys you'd call depth or complementary players on cup winning teams were all either top 100 picks or veterans. Trade capital is half the reason you shoot high in later rounds - you need to pick players people want.

It's pathetic that Fitz hasn't been able to generate capital remotely close to Shero who himself was average at best drafting. You'd think that f***ing up Holtz, Stillman and Mercer stalling out with only Lenni in the wings would cause some self-reflection. There is nothing worse than ditching a process that was working and the team is still benefiting from today. And we are now being hurt by whatever adjustment was made - a whole season pissed away because you have no depth scoring because you got nothing for 4+ years up front.

Shades of Lou drafting where you go with the low risk/low reward and hope you already have the core to drag said players except this isn't the late 90's and 2000's. Everyone has to pull on that proverbial rope to win a Cup, from the 12th forward to the superstar center.

 

[Ekiru]

Drafting is not just the GM, but thats not the biggest point

Even if he is awful at drafting, a good GM will always move from a position of strength to help a position of weakness. This includes cap space.

When we f***ed with the forward depth, it was because we were moving forward with a core of Nico Jack Jesper and Timo. That rivals most if not all teams in the league.

The defense? Funniest part about this is if Ruff’s system didnt flounder, we maybe wouldnt have moved on from names like Marino, Graves, and Severson. But it did. And it showed those three defensive deficiencies for the way we needed to be playing around our future defense (Luke, Nemec, Casey, etc.. at this point)

Replacing three players isnt something you do without losing players in other positions, whether directly or otherwise. It was always going to be the forward depth and never one of the big-4 (or Mercer at the time). Palat was immovable.

Quit harping over what was always bound to happen after Ruff and the team’s falloff. The drafting is another conversation entirely, and yes itd help tremendously; last I checked though his job is to work with what hes got in those moments (moving the depth), not make moves based in sunken cost fallacy

The defense is now set for a long ass time and we can spend 90% of our assets, time, and focus on forward depth. DEPTH. Get that through yalls skulls. We only need depth, and with the cap rising maybe we can add another core forward.

That is a golden ticket with a rising cap. But instead some of yall wanna bitch about how he sucks at drafting and moved guys from our best positions at the time.

Most other teams fans would kill for our position. Youll live too

 

[Lou Bloom]

Only if you define floor as “worst case scenario NHLer”. Every NHL draftee/signee has a floor of nothing and a ceiling of best player ever mathematically.

The definition of “just draft for ceiling” is likewise fluid - if that’s “just draft the best player available” (ceiling), that’s a bit more defensible no?

That's mainly my point. It's very shallow analysis that doesn't really tell you much about a player. These scouting departments have been scouting these players for years, to essentially ignore this multi year long process and just boil it down to floor/ceiling is silly and not something any NHL front office is going to take seriously.