Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - draft and FA edition

[Camille the Eel]

Whether we move a large contract and restructure or not, our next season and future depend most on signing Luke Hughes and even more on what Jack Hughes does in 25-26.

We know remarkably little about Jack’s 2 shoulder surgeries, how they relate to each other and prospects long term. The team however must have a realistic view of what the odds are.

Jack Hughes playing at the level he was on his hot streak before the Rangers playoff year, when he looked to be break 50 goals and 100 points, was a player who transformed a team in a way that a Mackinnon or a McDavid does. Is that level of play within his future now or not? Fitz, management and ownership must have a view of what they believe is likely.

There are two quite radically different approaches to our roster going forward that one might take depending on what their view is.

It Jack plays most of 82 games at top level next year, we can reasonably make few or no changes and win our division, look to a 110 point season. If it’s a repeat of what we’ve seen the past two years - if the new surgery hasn’t fixed things long term - we need to restructure fundamentally because we are just another bubble team.

 

[devilsblood]

Wouldn’t a trade at 50% retention basically be the same thing as a buy-out, except we wouldn’t get hit with the 2 years of penalties? Maybe Tampa takes their old boy back at $3m for a blah prospect and everyone shakes hands and moves on?

If we traded him at 50% retained I think we save more money in year one, but less money in year two. And then as you note, no penalties. Buying him out and thus having him on the books for 4 years is just not something I'm interested in.

I don't mind giving up a 4th rounder(like the one we got for Haula) for less retention if that's possible.

I also think if we are not comfortable keeping Daws as the #2, and perhaps are looking to trade him, then he could be attached to a Palat deal.

 

[Triumph]

If we traded him at 50% retained I think we save more money in year one, but less money in year two. And then as you note, no penalties. Buying him out and thus having him on the books for 4 years is just not something I'm interested in.

I don't mind giving up a 4th rounder(like the one we got for Haula) for less retention if that's possible.

I also think if we are not comfortable keeping Daws as the #2, and perhaps are looking to trade him, then he could be attached to a Palat deal.

The Devils should not trade Daws under any conditions. It would be better to lose him to waivers than trade him.

 

[devilsblood]

Whether we move a large contract and restructure or not, our next season and future depend most on signing Luke Hughes and even more on what Jack Hughes does in 25-26.

We know remarkably little about Jack’s 2 shoulder surgeries, how they relate to each other and prospects long term. The team however must have a realistic view of what the odds are.

Jack Hughes playing at the level he was on his hot streak before the Rangers playoff year, when he looked to be break 50 goals and 100 points, was a player who transformed a team in a way that a Mackinnon or a McDavid does. Is that level of play within his future now or not? Fitz, management and ownership must have a view of what they believe is likely.

There are two quite radically different approaches to our roster going forward that one might take depending on what their view is.

It Jack plays most of 82 games at top level next year, we can reasonably make few or no changes and win our division, look to a 110 point season. If it’s a repeat of what we’ve seen the past two years - if the new surgery hasn’t fixed things long term - we need to restructure fundamentally because we are just another bubble team.

I think you have to prepare for the potential of Jack getting hurt. Thus the importance of dependable center depth. Are Lamm's and Glass that? I think they have potential to surprise, but they also have the potential to be glaringly exposed if asked to play up the lineup. Given Jack's injury history I just don't think you can go into the season with those guys as the #3-4 centers.

But bring in a decent #3 center, (and I think we may have to accept merely decent) then I think we are as prepared as one could ask to be for the loss of a superstar level player.

Now I'm going to be optimistic and say Jack will get through this season without blowing out a shoulder. Yes, for whatever reason, he is clearly vulnerable to such injuries, but this last one was an extreme situation, and unlikely to be repeated. I think he will be able to avoid putting himself into dangerous situations.

 

[devilsblood]

The Devils should not trade Daws under any conditions. It would be better to lose him to waivers than trade him.

Seems pretty extreme.

I know they have had Daws ahead of Poulter the past couple seasons, but Poulter has put up as good as, if not better numbers the last 2 years. If they think the difference between Daws and Poulter is minimal, or if they think Malek has potential to surpass him in short order then I don't see keeping Daws as all that important.

Now if they are ready to roll with Daws as the #2, or they don't have faith in Poulter as the #3(in which case Daws shouldn't be #2) or they think the 23 year old Malek is years off from being able to play NHL games then sure don't trade Daws.

But there definitely look to be conditions where Daws could be traded.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I think you have to prepare for the potential of Jack getting hurt. Thus the importance of dependable center depth. Are Lamm's and Glass that? I think they have potential to surprise, but they also have the potential to be glaringly exposed if asked to play up the lineup. Given Jack's injury history I just don't think you can go into the season with those guys as the #3-4 centers.

But bring in a decent #3 center, (and I think we may have to accept merely decent) then I think we are as prepared as one could ask to be for the loss of a superstar level player.

Now I'm going to be optimistic and say Jack will get through this season without blowing out a shoulder. Yes, for whatever reason, he is clearly vulnerable to such injuries, but this last one was an extreme situation, and unlikely to be repeated. I think he will be able to avoid putting himself into dangerous situations.

Prudent management of the uncertainty.

The other option, if there’s major Jack uncertainty and little confidence, is a hockey trade involving moving major pieces. Bratt. Timo. Nemec for a less significant piece. And that’s all very situational and a high stakes gamble by Fitz.

Or stand pat more or less.

 

[devilsblood]

Prudent management of the uncertainty.

The other option, if there’s major Jack uncertainty and little confidence, is a hockey trade involving moving major pieces. Bratt. Timo. Nemec for a less significant piece. And that’s all very situational and a high stakes gamble by Fitz.

Or stand pat more or less.

What would be the reasoning here?

 

[MB3]

Prudent management of the uncertainty.

The other option, if there’s major Jack uncertainty and little confidence, is a hockey trade involving moving major pieces. Bratt. Timo. Nemec for a less significant piece. And that’s all very situational and a high stakes gamble by Fitz.

Or stand pat more or less.

What does the word “gamble” mean to you? Why are we trading one of the very few productive forwards on our hockey team? Why are we trading Nemec for a “less significant piece”?

I’d love to go gambling with you. “Hey give me $200 and let me take your old lady out to dinner, it’s a gamble.”

 

[Edmonton East]

I think you have to prepare for the potential of Jack getting hurt. Thus the importance of dependable center depth. Are Lamm's and Glass that? I think they have potential to surprise, but they also have the potential to be glaringly exposed if asked to play up the lineup. Given Jack's injury history I just don't think you can go into the season with those guys as the #3-4 centers.

But bring in a decent #3 center, (and I think we may have to accept merely decent) then I think we are as prepared as one could ask to be for the loss of a superstar level player.

Now I'm going to be optimistic and say Jack will get through this season without blowing out a shoulder. Yes, for whatever reason, he is clearly vulnerable to such injuries, but this last one was an extreme situation, and unlikely to be repeated. I think he will be able to avoid putting himself into dangerous situations.

Yea, Glass and Lamms 100% are not that and the Devs can't afford to even take the risk because of Jack's injuries, as you said....plus no other C depth. Said for 2 years now that the most important need is a 3C that can play up the lineup, but good luck getting one.

As for the shoulder injuries, let's be real. We don't need a doctor to tell us falling down 50 times a game increases risk of injury, especially considering the pace Jack often plays at. Aside from direct contact, folks injure their shoulders and wrists bracing for falls and/or sliding into the boards. I've asked repeatedly for this place to provide me a comparable player of Jack's alleged pedigree that falls down a comical amount of times per game, especially now at 24. I never get an answer because one doesn't exist. It's really weird. Every single person on this board holds their breath once a week as Jack slides into the boards, whether they wanna admit it or not. If he doesn't change his style of play, he's gonna get moved to wing at some point....homers don't wanna admit it though. Plenty of highly touted draft Cs get shifted to wing....still great, highly productive players.

 

[Triumph]

Seems pretty extreme.

I know they have had Daws ahead of Poulter the past couple seasons, but Poulter has put up as good as, if not better numbers the last 2 years. If they think the difference between Daws and Poulter is minimal, or if they think Malek has potential to surpass him in short order then I don't see keeping Daws as all that important.

Now if they are ready to roll with Daws as the #2, or they don't have faith in Poulter as the #3(in which case Daws shouldn't be #2) or they think the 23 year old Malek is years off from being able to play NHL games then sure don't trade Daws.

But there definitely look to be conditions where Daws could be traded.

For a team that has had multiple seasons where 4 goalies have been used under the tenure of this GM, trading Daws would be idiotic. He is at least a #3, Malek has no North American experience, and I don't think there's any faith in Poulter as a #3, he has not played in the NHL yet.

Daws has no value, either. Nobody's trading for him to make him their backup. I'd rather risk him on waivers than take a 5th round pick in 2026 or whatever someone is going to trade for him.

 

[devilsblood]

For a team that has had multiple seasons where 4 goalies have been used under the tenure of this GM, trading Daws would be idiotic. He is at least a #3, Malek has no North American experience, and I don't think there's any faith in Poulter as a #3, he has not played in the NHL yet.

Daws has no value, either. Nobody's trading for him to make him their backup. I'd rather risk him on waivers than take a 5th round pick in 2026 or whatever someone is going to trade for him.

Such hyperbole.

 

[Camille the Eel]

What would be the reasoning here?

If one feels that Jack Hughes is likely not only to be at risk of recurrent injury . . . but instead the surgeons and sports medicine people are saying that the shoulder (or whatever) is structurally compromised to the point that the new baseline is a significantly diminished . . . you’ve arguably got different challenges for building a team that can compete for the cup or at least be perennially over 100 points for the next decade.

 

[devilsblood]

If one feels that Jack Hughes is likely not only to be at risk of recurrent injury . . . but instead the surgeons and sports medicine people are saying that the shoulder (or whatever) is structurally compromised to the point that the new baseline is a significantly diminished . . . you’ve arguably got different challenges for building a team that can compete for the cup or at least be perennially over 100 points for the next decade.

But why trade your uncompromised good players in this scenario?

 

[Camille the Eel]

What does the word “gamble” mean to you? Why are we trading one of the very few productive forwards on our hockey team? Why are we trading Nemec for a “less significant piece”?

I’d love to go gambling with you. “Hey give me $200 and let me take your old lady out to dinner, it’s a gamble.”

Ha I am not advocating this. I don’t want to move these people. My point is that everything depends on how we see Hughes recovering from here and what odds you make on it. If he’s cooked as far as returning to what we knew of him back in 2023 then “all bets are off.”

 

[Camille the Eel]

But why trade your uncompromised good players in this scenario?

Unsure. Because either you are in a fundamental rebuild again and these are your only assets ? Or not. Throwing this out for discussion that’s all. It interests me more than speculating on a Palat trade and retention. I confess. And more calming than worrying about nuclear war.

 

[The Grinder]

In the hypothetical that Jack’s shoulder is severely compromised and too big a risk to build the team around…then you don’t trade your healthy players. You ransom Jack and Luke to Vancouver and get in return whatever the hell we want.

That would be the only way to avoid a major rebuild.


But even this thought experiment is disgusting.

 

[thebeernerd]

Unsure. Because either you are in a fundamental rebuild again and these are your only assets ? Or not. Throwing this out for discussion that’s all. It interests me more than speculating on a Palat trade and retention. I confess. And more calming than worrying about nuclear war.

So you think jumping to the single worst conclusions about the team we support to get us out of these dark mental spaces is helping?! Give me Palat speculation any day of the week.

 

[Triumph]

Jack Hughes only takes up 8% of the cap, the idea that the Devils would have to rebuild if he were no longer able to play in the NHL is absolutely ridiculous. Their Cup window would be pretty badly damaged but there's no rebuild here, there's a #2 overall and a #10 overall who aren't even regulars on the team yet and Luke Hughes turns 22 in September.

 

[devilsblood]

Jack Hughes only takes up 8% of the cap, the idea that the Devils would have to rebuild if he were no longer able to play in the NHL is absolutely ridiculous.

Dude, calm down.

 

[MB3]

what an awful thing to even talk about. reminds me of talking to my insane ex girlfriend: “if i became a quadruple amputee would you still love me?” Yes sweetie, please finish your glass of wine I’d like to go home.

 

[JimEIV]

Jack Hughes only takes up 8% of the cap, the idea that the Devils would have to rebuild if he were no longer able to play in the NHL is absolutely ridiculous. Their Cup window would be pretty badly damaged but there's no rebuild here, there's a #2 overall and a #10 overall who aren't even regulars on the team yet and Luke Hughes turns 22 in September.

Not being difficult here, I just don't understand your point with the 8% of the Cap comment?

Wouldn't that make replacing his production even more difficult dollar for dollar? I mean we're already pretty tight against the cap with a very mediocre team. And our 8% guy is a very significant portion of the offense.

We have a very mediocre offense with Jack and we already need to bolster the firepower assuming he's part of the solution. Without him, things would look pretty bleak...and on top of that not a whole helluva lot of money to do anything substantial?

If Jack became unavailable for us I do think the organization would have to rethink what has currently been built.

 

[thebeernerd]

I suppose this isn’t a conversation without merit, because we- collectively as a species, let alone as Devils fans- deserve nothing and the worst case scenario is always a distinct possibility. But we also don’t have to wallow in our own filth.

 

[Camille the Eel]

what an awful thing to even talk about. reminds me of talking to my insane ex girlfriend: “if i became a quadruple amputee would you still love me?” Yes sweetie, please finish your glass of wine I’d like to go home.

So you think jumping to the single worst conclusions about the team we support to get us out of these dark mental spaces is helping?! Give me Palat speculation any day of the week.

Good points both of you and quite helpful to me too.

I suppose a shrink would say focusing on the Devils absolute worse case scenario was like projecting the existential fears of the day onto the Devils future discussion. Not sure why I went there today.

This season will tell us where Jack is. In that context yep Palat and Hemilton are indeed the two major pieces to consider. And as everyone points out, the pressing need for a third truly strong center ice player.

 

[devilsblood]

Unsure. Because either you are in a fundamental rebuild again and these are your only assets ? Or not. Throwing this out for discussion that’s all. It interests me more than speculating on a Palat trade and retention. I confess. And more calming than worrying about nuclear war.

I wouldn't make any huge decision's based off the idea that Jack is severely compromised at this point.

We are definitely at the point where we have to consider that there is a high risk of injury, and should build up depth behind him, but he's still averaged 67ish games played and 80ish pts per season over the last 3 years. He's still been a significant driver on a team that has made the playoffs in 2 of those seasons.

My hope is he can give us a relatively healthy season (actually healthy and contributing late season and playoffs) and next offseason it's not this over hang that it is this season.

If he's hurt yet again late next season then maybe you start thinking about bigger moves, although the move I would look to make is actually trading Jack, not the good players who are more able to stay healthy.

 

[Andre Palot]

Free agency is coming. You can feel it? I can feel it.

The fear. The chaos. The smell of desperation from 28 other GMs scrambling to throw $6 million at someone who’s scored 11 goals since 2021.

I predict by July 2nd he will have signed two killers, fleeced someone’s middle six, and walked away with enough depth to drown the Metro.

Mark my words. When the dust settles and the rest of the league is reeling from overpays and panic moves, Tom Fitzgerald will be standing alone with his arms crossed, smirking, already planning October.

You don’t need faith. You need Fitz.