Devils discussion (news, notes and speculation) - 2026-27 offseason part III

[devilsblood]

Waiting 6 years to get Grits, and then trading him after one very promising season would be some pretty dark humor.

 

[The Grinder]

You guys remember the fireworks factory?

I member.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I disagree, their Underlying's were fantastic with a bad PDO. That was Jesper Bratt's best ever season by advanced stats. That was one of the most dominant 5 on 5 chance creation years by Timo, but the end product wasnt there

The only down for Timo last year was his defense was pretty bad, hes usually passable defensively but he sucked defensivsly last year. My guess is due to quality of competition being with Nico but who knows

That will turn if they play like that again

How many offseasons in a row are we going to copy/paste some variation of this before realizing it’s just blind faith? Always a ready-made excuse to obfuscate that this group has failed expectations miserably four out of the last five years. But this time it will be different.

 

[Devils Trap]

How many offseasons in a row are we going to copy/paste some variation of this before realizing it’s just blind faith? Always a ready-made excuse to deny that this group has failed expectations miserably four out of the last five years.

Till they drop off 5 on 5 underlyings

Blame the guys that lose their minutes or have no + value to the team

 

[devilsblood]

I'm not parting with Grits. I want to see things through with him. He has all the potential to be a sneaky productive player at a reasonable contract for the next few years.

Revisiting your post here.

Yeah Grits is probably a fair ask but I'd hate to give up one of the few people on this current team I can actually root for to get another highly paid merc until he shows otherwise.

How cheap Grits's contract is probably going to be is a factor that should not be overlooked.

If Robertson is to get $14, it's very likely Grits is making less then half of that. Maybe by a couple million even.

Mehta, as an analytics guy, may look at Grit's numbers, right there as best on the team, and what his contract is going to be and say, I'm not trading him.

Would Dallas be interest in Timo with his $9mil? I know Timo would need to waive.

Or Mercer and Ham's as opposed to Grits?

 

[dls]

Mercer yes,
Ultimately if it required Grits, you probably still need to do it, but its tough.

If you have the chance to get Jrob on an extended contract at that price you do it.

 

[Devils Trap]

Revisiting your post here.

How cheap Grits's contract is probably going to be is a factor that should not be overlooked.

If Robertson is to get $14, it's very likely Grits is making less then half of that. Maybe by a couple million even.

Mehta, as an analytics guy, may look at Grit's numbers, right there as best on the team, and what his contract is going to be and say, I'm not trading him.

Would Dallas be interest in Timo with his $9mil? I know Timo would need to waive.

Or Mercer and Ham's as opposed to Grits?

I dont think the ask for Jrob is unreasonable, I think we can find pieces to move but I just dont know if we can afford to do 14m when we want to be in on Quinn should be become available

 

[devs8626]

Moving Timo would be a brilliant move.

 

[Devs3cups]

Speaking of Grits’ extension…

Where is it??

 

[Devils Trap]

Speaking of Grits’ extension…

Where is it??

I dont like how quiet it is, give me anything today

 

[Billdo]

For whatever reason I thought Robertson was a center. Senior moment. My mistake.

No worries. Even if he were I'd imagine they'd just slot Jack as LW on paper and have him be the primary pick carrier while not taking faceoffs.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Till they drop off 5 on 5 underlyings

Blame the guys that lose their minutes or have no + value to the team

Right, in other words placing more value on “underlyings” than the actual results that matter in the standings. You don’t get trophies for “underlyings”. I’m totally onboard with exhausting an appropriate sample size if the results don’t match in the short term, but when it’s been a half a decade of underperforming the analytics, maybe it’s time to acknowledge that there’s something else going on there that the analytics aren’t capturing.

 

[BostonDevil]

I like Grits, don't get me wrong but isn't this what trades are about? You give up something to get something? Dallas isn't banging down the door for Bjugstad.

7 playoffs wins in the last 10 years after drafting #1/#1/#2/#4/#7 etc.

Stop being afraid.

Big swings.

 

[Devils Trap]

Right, in other words placing more value on “underlyings” than the actual results that matter in the standings. You don’t get trophies for “underlyings”. I’m totally onboard with exhausting an appropriate sample size if the results don’t match in the short term, but when it’s been a half a decade of underperforming the analytics, maybe it’s time to acknowledge that there’s something else going on there that the analytics aren’t capturing.

Yea the other stuff would be bad system, bad depth and supplemental pieces etc

Underlyings and analytics are more important for prediction of future success then results. Ill take my chances

 

[devilsblood]

How many offseasons in a row are we going to copy/paste some variation of this before realizing it’s just blind faith? Always a ready-made excuse to obfuscate that this group has failed expectations miserably four out of the last five years. But this time it will be different.

These guys were all well above water in goals for in the 3 seasons leading up to this last one.

Bratt 55%.
Jack 54%
Nico 56%
Timo 51%

This past season

Bratt 43%
Nico 42%
Timo41%
Jack 46%

So this is not like other seasons. Clear outlier.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

How many offseasons in a row are we going to copy/paste some variation of this before realizing it’s just blind faith? Always a ready-made excuse to obfuscate that this group has failed expectations miserably four out of the last five years. But this time it will be different.

There have been different reasons for the failures. If we’re going to make changes based off of what has went wrong in the last couple years, Jack and Luke Hughes would be the first two off the team. Without question, they would be out if that’s the standard.

 

[Devils Trap]

These guys were all well above water in goals for in the 3 seasons leading up to this last one.

Bratt 55%.
Jack 54%
Nico 56%
Timo 51%

This past season

Bratt 43%
Nico 42%
Timo41%
Jack 46%

So this is not like other seasons. Clear outlier.

Last year I would put down to a historic bad PDO season 5 on 5. Our finishing above expected was so unbelievably low, I doubt it happens again

 

[devilsblood]

Right, in other words placing more value on “underlyings” than the actual results that matter in the standings. You don’t get trophies for “underlyings”. I’m totally onboard with exhausting an appropriate sample size if the results don’t match in the short term, but when it’s been a half a decade of underperforming the analytics, maybe it’s time to acknowledge that there’s something else going on there that the analytics aren’t capturing.

See above, this past season does not at all follow the previous 3 seasons.

 

[forceten]

You guys remember the fireworks factory?

I member.

Pepperidge Farm Remembers

 

[Devils Army]

Not only is that irrelevant, but it’s completely untrue.

Connelly is the only guy they've held onto no? Its absolutely relevant, they have taken a vastly different approach than just trade futures for nows, they reload it every single year with no emphasis on prospect or draft capital. Like i mentioned, similar to the Rams in football

 

[devilsblood]

Last year I would put down to a historic bad PDO season 5 on 5. Our finishing above expected was so unbelievably low, I doubt it happens again

Some different factors going on for sure. Too tight to vest system. Jack's hand. Timo career low shooting %(probably due in part to system). Too many defensive d-men.

Only one of those is something that you hope to get better by doing nothing(and a caveat there too).

 

[Devils Trap]

Wonder if Sunny will buy anyone out for some cap flexibility ?

Both Noesen and Bjugstad can free up some money + roster space to get better fits for what he wants. You save 1.3 million on a Bjugstad buyout and 1.8 Million on a Noesen buyout.

Doesnt seem like much but 3.1 million on those 2 seems pretty good to me.

 

[NJDevs26]

It's always something with this group. All the excuses are literally over with these losers now, Fitz is gone, we're on our third GM and coach in the last seven years...there's nobody else left to hold to account if this ship doesn't get going in the right direction other than the beloved core.

 

[longislanddevil]

Curious if you guys would do this? I think this cost + 14m in salary is prob too much for me to stomach

Insert Mercer for Gritsyuk and I make that trade all day and twice on Sundays. I’d even throw in Hameenaho or Casey if need be.

 

[Based Anime Fan]

Yes. If we can jettison more of the dead weight, that would make me feel better.

Markstrom, Dillon (I love his off-ice intangibles), Bjugstad, probably Noesen, maybe Kovasevic.

It would then take work to replace them because we have nobody up front in the system. I'm actually fine with Daws/Allen for now. Defense I'd love to see Casey get a shot. There's Edwards, Vilen, and Silayev who seem to still be legitimate prospects too.

Keep Dillon and the Bjug, jettison the chaff