Devils 2019 offseason team discussion (news and notes) XI

[Bleedred]

Where am I wrong? C'mon. Don't be scared.

I'm just baffled by the groupthink of this site. It's beyond ridiculous. We aren't a bottom 3 or 4 team if we have all this talent that they think we have.

I don’t think we’ll be a bottom 3 or 4 team this year. Even if we get the Cory Schneider of the last 3 years and don’t see Blackwood sustain what he did last year, we still shouldn’t be bottom 3-4. Unless a lot of key people get injured.

And we (likely) won’t have a goaltender giving us .891% over a 41 game stretch.

We added Subban and Hughes to last year’s team, purged a mediocre backup that had a complete meltdown (some of it wasn’t his fault, he played too many games beyond his capability) and Cory is probably healthy enough that he won’t have a 9 game stretch like he did last fall (although I think he’ll still struggle to maintain a league average save percentage, especially if used as a clear cut starter) and we’ll hopefully have two serviceable goalies for the first two months, which we didn’t have last year.

Andy Greene won’t be relied on to play as many minutes anymore.

Hall will (hopefully) not miss over the half the games this year and if all goes according to plan we won’t be icing lineups like we did for much or February-April of last year.

So I think that all should be enough to make us competitive.

 

[beekay414]

the team has no reason to be bottom 3 or 4 this season

Because we added a #1 overall, borderline generational talent. Has nothing to do with everyone else we've discussed.

 

[Davegarri]

Yay, more hyberpole. I love this site.

Gardiner "sucks" in the same way that Severson "sucks"

Sucks was harsh, but I don't think he'd really improve this team. He's better than some are giving him credit for on here for sure, but his numbers were definitely inflated the last few years from playing on one of the best offensive teams in the league.

I just don't see where he fits currently, he's redundant, just older and wanting to cash in.

Signing Gardiner wouldn't make me overly excited, and not signing him will not cause me to lose sleep.

 

[Jack Be Quick]

I agree but i'd much rather Butcher there than Greene or Smith (unless by some grace of God he comes in McAvoy-esque)

No grace necessary. Ty Smith is the top pairing defenseman on the left side until further notice.

He's a better prospect with just as good of a mentor as McAvoy.

 

[beekay414]

This is asinine - you go off about absolutes on here and then say some garbage like this. Butcher's draft position has almost nothing to do with how good of a player he is now.

The Devils should not be trading Butcher. He gets excellent results with what he's given and he should be given more. Gardiner is better, but who knows for how long? One year, maybe?

He's not as good as you think he is. That's the point. He couldn't handle top pairing duty due to his limitations. He's barely a 2nd pairing LD.

 

[beekay414]

I don’t think we’ll be a bottom 3 or 4 team this year. Even if we get the Cory Schneider of the last 3 years and don’t see Blackwood sustain what he did last year, we still shouldn’t be bottom 3-4. Unless a lot of key people get injured.

And we (likely) won’t have a goaltender giving us .891% over a 41 game stretch.

We added Subban and Hughes to last year’s team, purged a mediocre backup that had a complete meltdown (some of it wasn’t his fault, he played too many games beyond his capability) and Cory is probably healthy enough that he won’t have a 9 game stretch like he did last fall (although I think he’ll still struggle to maintain a league average save percentage, especially if used as a clear cut starter) and we’ll hopefully have two serviceable goalies for the first two months, which we didn’t have last year.

Andy Greene won’t be relied on to play as many minutes anymore.

Hall will (hopefully) not miss over the half the games this year and if all goes according to plan we won’t be icing lineups like we did for much or February-April of last year.

So I think that all should be enough to make us competitive.

My man, I don't disagree here. My qualms have more do to with Wood, Coleman and Butcher's impact than anything else.

 

[beekay414]

Sucks was harsh, but I don't think he'd really improve this team. He's better than some are giving him credit for on here for sure, but his numbers were definitely inflated the last few years from playing on one of the best offensive teams in the league.

I just don't see where he fits currently, he's redundant, just older and wanting to cash in.

Signing Gardiner wouldn't make me overly excited, and not signing him will not cause me to lose sleep.

We literally have nobody else worthy of carrying the top pairing LD role. That's where his impact would be felt.

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect a Gardiner signing but he'd definitely be able to fill a void we can't right now.

I'd rather sign Gardiner and put him as our top pairing LD than moving Vatanen over to LD.

 

[Oneiro]

Disingenuous post as it leaves out the return for butcher. Am I trading butcher for picks? No. No reason to do that. Am I signing Gardiner and then using butcher as a piece in a deal for a potential top 6 if available? Absolutely. If I can turn butcher into Nylander or ehlers or something along those lines, I'm certainly listening. That team is better. Obviously depends on if that option is on the table, of course

That's fair, but cheap, effective blueliners are not a surplus for this team. So you're getting a more expensive player on the downside of his career in Gardiner + another playmaking/skill forward (which we may already have in Boqvist). Plus, I imagine it's Butcher+ for an Ehlers or Nylander. Losing flexibility to move things forward when I don't think team will be ready to win throughout the duration of Hall+Subban+Hughes ELC.

Where I think the fundamental disagreement lies is viewing Hall/Subban/Simmonds on the roster as creating a deep sense of urgency. Sure, we should take another step towards being a perennial playoff team. But the window is really about Nico, Hughes, Bratt and Smith. I want Hall resigned to be here to be the Wheeler-type, not the main guy, and I see Subban as a bridge to the actual contention window. If Hall doesn't want to resign, you have a good trade piece.

This is the way things work now. Big deals for top end players + ELCs. Almost no middle men. Starting from a barren prospect pool and an old team to where we are now, you either accept that it takes time or you don't.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Trading Butcher just to overpay Gardiner is stupid asset management

 

[beekay414]

Trading Butcher just to overpay Gardiner is stupid asset management

Good thing nobody is thinking about it from such a simplistic analysis.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Trading Butcher just to overpay Gardiner is stupid asset management

What does it matter even if we do overpay Gardiner? It's for no more than three years...

And I'd keep Butcher but move Vatanen.

Gardiner-Subban
Butcher-Severson or Smith-Severson
Smith-Greene or Greene-Butcher

 

[NJDevs26]

Good thing nobody is thinking about it from such a simplistic analysis.

How else are you making room for Gardiner? You're not scratching Butcher and Ty Smith's all but on the team.

As far as your crack about how crappy our blue line is (which ignores we've already added Subban and are about to add Ty), what do you think the Leafs have been? Freddy Anderson is the only thing that really seperated them from us defensively, in fact Toronto allowed more shots than we did last year and the year before that they were 28th in shots allowed. And before you're 'but they're 35 points better than us' response, yeah because they have an all-world offense, a top ten goalie and good coaching. Nothing to do with the D. Maybe Gardiner would be better on a lower pairing but he wants to be paid like a top-pairing guy.

There's a difference between not liking a guy and not wanting to overpay a middle pairing guy and there's a reason Toronto's defense hasn't been good with Gardiner as a top-pairing guy.

 

[MadDevil]

I don't think Gardiner sucks, but I also don't think he moves the needle to where we should absolutely sign him. I also tend to think if he was really that good somebody would have signed him by now.

 

[The 29th Pick]

Looking through the bent back tulips....

To see how the other half lives...

 

[devilsblood]

So, I went to IcyData and this is what I found...

Even strength primary assists

Bratt: 12
Severson: 12
Hall: 11
Hischier: 10
Palmieri: 10
Wood: 9
Coleman: 7
Zajac: 6
Butcher: 3
Zacha: 3

Can we just say we sucked even strength, period?

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

I use these guys, I assume your looking at evens which includes 3v3's and 4v4s, I'm looking at 5v5.

But what point are you trying to make with your statement? That we sucked at even strength thus we should disregard the fact that Wood had more primary's then these guys? And we should cling to the idea that Wood does nothing on the ice beside skate fast in a straight line?

 

[devilsblood]

Our offense sucked, period, last year.

By pimping out Wood's 9 even strength primary assists, would be arguing over which ugly sister is the prettiest. Let's pull back the saddle here for a minute before we get carried away on how "real" his impact is.

So on a crappy offense, Wood averaged .7 primary assists per 60 at 5v5 . This ranked 31st league wide amongst LW's(>350 minutes played).

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Imagine what he could do on a good offensive team.

 

[devilsblood]

His total assists per 60 ranks a still respectable 55th amongst lw's.

 

[devilsblood]

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

Man, with all the talent we have, it's a ****ing wonder we only had 72 points this year.

Spoken like a true person that's never watch Jake Gardiner

I'll admit I have never paid attention to Jake Gardiner on the ice. But if we are going with the "guys who watch him know how good he is" argument, well I think the Toronto fans might recommend that we pass.

 

[devilsblood]

We sucked, they sucked. Who gives a **** how we both sucked. We still sucked more than they did. Yet, we're here arguing over a 3rd pairing winger (Coleman), a 4th pairing winger (Wood) and a 3rd pairing defensemen (Butcher) like they are valuable pieces we can't live without.

Tell me what's more likely here...that they aren't what you all think they are or that I'm a huge pessimist and we don't suck like I think we suck?

I'd say it's pretty important to know the "why". That way you know how to fix it.

And while there were some less then expected performances from guys, like Zacha and Wood(mostly early for both guys) injuries were a huge factor as to why we stunk.

 

[OmNomNom]

He's not as good as you think he is. That's the point. He couldn't handle top pairing duty due to his limitations. He's barely a 2nd pairing LD.

He's a pp specialist who can pivot. He's worth it strictly due to his contract right now

 

[LeedsMonster]

To LVK- Jesper Bratt, Sami Vatanen ($2M retained), 2020 1st, 2021 3rd

To NJD- Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin

Vegas gets a good young winger and a RHD they need, plus the picks, and cap space for Karlsson. We get a legit top six RW with size, speed and skill to play on Jack's wing, and a legit 4th line C/ LW.

 

[Triumph]

Butcher isn't even good on the power play. He's not a PP specialist. He's best 5 on 5 and he hasn't been tried as a top pairing D, so it would be hard to know if he's any good at it or not. My money would be on him being fine there.

 

[My3Sons]

To LVK- Jesper Bratt, Sami Vatanen ($2M retained), 2020 1st, 2021 3rd

To NJD- Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin

Vegas gets a good young winger and a RHD they need, plus the picks, and cap space for Karlsson. We get a legit top six RW with size, speed and skill to play on Jack's wing, and a legit 4th line C/ LW.

That’s a lot for Tuch isn’t it? Stone with an extension returned a prospect and a second rounder and NJ doesn’t need a fourth line guy. If Eakin is a a cap dump then his value is neutral to negative.

 

[Bcap88]

To LVK- Jesper Bratt, Sami Vatanen ($2M retained), 2020 1st, 2021 3rd

To NJD- Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin

Vegas gets a good young winger and a RHD they need, plus the picks, and cap space for Karlsson. We get a legit top six RW with size, speed and skill to play on Jack's wing, and a legit 4th line C/ LW.

Karlsson is already signed

And no that’s way to much value for Alex tuch

 

[OmNomNom]

To LVK- Jesper Bratt, Sami Vatanen ($2M retained), 2020 1st, 2021 3rd

To NJD- Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin

Vegas gets a good young winger and a RHD they need, plus the picks, and cap space for Karlsson. We get a legit top six RW with size, speed and skill to play on Jack's wing, and a legit 4th line C/ LW.

Already said, but why would we give up a cap controlled bratt, who has top 6 upside, AND retain on a top 4 Dman, just for Tuch? Granted, tuch is cheap, but I think bratt signs a bridge contract for like 6M so the cost saving isn't too much. Also, no interest in Eakin, he's too inconsistent and tops out as 2nd line at best