Devils 2018-19 Team Discussion (news and notes) Part III

[JimEIV]

JQ was already sent back to the minors? I missed that, but saw in a Bingo game story that he was in the game, unless I read that wrong.

He was in the Binghamton game and was cut above the eye for s double minor.

 

[JimEIV]

Blaming Zacha's linemates at this point makes no sense. Year 1, fine, that year is done now. Last year here are the forwards he played more than 100 minutes with, in order:

Miles Wood, Kyle Palmieri, Stefan Noesen, Jesper Bratt, Drew Stafford, Taylor Hall. That's a pretty decent set of linemates - it's not great, but it's not significantly worse than what most 2nd/3rd line forwards are getting in terms of linemates. The production wasn't there yet.

We'll know a lot more at the end of the season. I think in those first two games he showed another level, and I see that other level on certain shifts in other games. If we see that more, the points will come.

He has played with good players but not very long...just look at his ice time. Last year he was 12th among forwards in ATOI, 11th at Even Strength.
It is a bit of a misdirection to name the best players he has played with when in reality he's has been the 11th forward on the team.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

My thoughts is probably that Shero has some regrets on the offseason he just had. He probably put too much faith on kids stepping up, when the reality is they are not ready and we needed another 1 or 2 accomplished veterans on this team that can play 2nd and 3rd line to replace Maroon and Grabner.

He tried to add/retain certain players, and it didn’t work out. There’s nothing to regret.

 

[JimEIV]

So knowing that Zacha was the 12th forward in ATOI last year I was curious to browse some of the best scoring teams and see how their 12th forward in ATOI compares...

Zacha 14:22 ATOI as the 12 forward 25 points in 69 games. New Jersey was 15th in the league in Goals For.

Tampa the highest scoring team in the league last year. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Ryan Callahan 13:19 ATOI He had 18 points in 67 games.

Winnipeg the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Joel Armia with 12:36. He had 29 points in 79 games.

Toronto and Pittsburgh were tied at 3rd in Goals For last year

Toronto's 12th forward was Kasperi Kapanen at 11:15 ATOI. He only played 38 games and had 9 points. Toronto was very top heavy not alot of forwards beyond their top 10 had significant time or numbers. Connor Brown was Toronto's 10th forward in ATOI with 15:01 . He had 28 points in 82 games

Similar for Pittsburgh. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Dominik Simon with 11:25. He only played 33 games and had 12 points. Conor Sheary was their 11th forward in ATOI with 13:57, he had 30 points in 79 games

Comparatively, Zacha is on par with offensive production to just about anyone with similar playing time and he is doing it at a much younger age than most of these examples.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Good analysis that should take some heat off the kid. He gets far too much hate here. I loved it b t w when he jumped into a fight with that 6 foot 5 guy on Thursday after he boarded Stafford. Says a lot about his development as a member of the team and an NHL player.

 

[RSeen]

Hardly any 20 year old can do that....you think Nico has 50 points from the 3rd line last year? You think Bratt could've been successful with Josefson and Bennet?

I'm not saying he should have already been able to do that, but that from what I have seen, I have a hard time projecting him to be able to do that.

 

[Triumph]

Goalpost shift via numbers

Comparatively, Zacha is on par with offensive production to just about anyone with similar playing time and he is doing it at a much younger age than most of these examples.

He was 12th in ice time per game but here's who was above him - John Quenneville, who played 2 games, Adam Henrique who was traded, Michael Grabner who was traded for, and Marcus Johansson who only played 29 games. Add all these up and it's basically 82 games worth of 4 forwards who played a little more than Zacha. He played 3rd line minutes with decent players and didn't produce a whole lot. He was only 20 and we should expect him to get better, but still, the trend last season was a bit concerning.

 

[RSeen]

So knowing that Zacha was the 12th forward in ATOI last year I was curious to browse some of the best scoring teams and see how their 12th forward in ATOI compares...

Zacha 14:22 ATOI as the 12 forward 25 points in 69 games. New Jersey was 15th in the league in Goals For.

Tampa the highest scoring team in the league last year. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Ryan Callahan 13:19 ATOI He had 18 points in 67 games.

Winnipeg the 2nd highest scoring team in the league. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Joel Armia with 12:36. He had 29 points in 79 games.

Toronto and Pittsburgh were tied at 3rd in Goals For last year

Toronto's 12th forward was Kasperi Kapanen at 11:15 ATOI. He only played 38 games and had 9 points. Toronto was very top heavy not alot of forwards beyond their top 10 had significant time or numbers. Connor Brown was Toronto's 10th forward in ATOI with 15:01 . He had 28 points in 82 games

Similar for Pittsburgh. Their 12 forward in ATOI was Dominik Simon with 11:25. He only played 33 games and had 12 points. Conor Sheary was their 11th forward in ATOI with 13:57, he had 30 points in 79 games

Comparatively, Zacha is on par with offensive production to just about anyone with similar playing time and he is doing it at a much younger age than most of these examples.

This is a good relevant point and could suggest that increased ice time and even though this data doesn't depict anything regarding quality of teammates but that can be a reasonable point to infer that this would increase with ice time, would suggest he could see increased production. The fact that he is 12th in ice time is probably not a fair representation if there is no threshold (e.g., 40 games) included. Point taken regardless - however he is not playing 4th line minutes, its moreso in the 3rd line range.

I do still lean towards Zacha becoming a 3rd line C, rather than 2nd line C because of what I would perceive as a lack of offensive potential, however he is certainly not a finished product at 21.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Everyone is still enamored with the fact he was drafted 6th overall and use it against him just because he hasn’t achieved what others have to this point in his draft year.

It’s irrelevant now. He’s still 21. Yes we want this to be the year that he starts producing more but so long as he continues to make those next steps and start to play more consistently like he did in the Washington game, then that would be an improvement.

We’re 6 games in. This is why gathering points early was essential. They have plenty of time to regroup before Nashville.

 

[Blender]

Everyone is still enamored with the fact he was drafted 6th overall and use it against him just because he hasn’t achieved what others have to this point in his draft year.

It’s irrelevant now. He’s still 21. Yes we want this to be the year that he starts producing more but so long as he continues to make those next steps and start to play more consistently like he did in the Washington game, then that would be an improvement.

We’re 6 games in. This is why gathering points early was essential. They have plenty of time to regroup before Nashville.

I'm definitely disappointed in Zacha's offense so far in his career, but he's still a 1st round pick from 2015 even in a re-draft today, and he's outperformed as many guys picked in the top 20 as have outperformed him. People just tend to focus on the Barzal and Rantanen type guys while ignoring Strome, Crouse, Gurianov, etc.

 

[JimEIV]

I'm just a little baffled by the calls for more production from a player that is being used as a 3rd liner that gets no PP time surrounded by pretty much all 25 point players in the bottom 6.

Wood 32 in 79
Noesen 27 in 72
Gibbons 26 in 59
Zajac 26 in 63
Coleman 25 in 79
Zacha 25 in 69
Boyle 23 in 69
Stafford 15 in 59

What would you actually expect from a 20 year old player playing in this space?

 

[devilsblood]

Zacha needs to earn more ice time.

Unfortunately his play does not warrant more.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I'll be the first person to defend Zacha, you all know that. But these last 4 games have been real bad, from an offensive standpoint as he's still playing well in our own end.

The first two games he was skating hard through the neutral zone, being active and moving around the offensive zone to find soft areas to shoot from. That's pretty much evaporated the last 4 games though. He's watching the play way too much, it almost looks like he's over thinking every decision. He's floating into traffic in the offensive end and not giving his teammates an option. He's still been alright along the boards but that's pretty much it, everything is along the perimter. I'm not even close to a coach but I wish they would just tell him pretty much not to think that much. Just use his raw physical skills, skate fast and don't be hesitant.

Having said all that, he's 21. And he does have those great physical skills to be a good player. I do still believe in his potential a lot, probably more than anyone here. But it has to start somewhere.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm just a little baffled by the calls for more production from a player that is being used as a 3rd liner that gets no PP time surrounded by pretty much all 25 point players in the bottom 6.

Wood 32 in 79
Noesen 27 in 72
Gibbons 26 in 59
Zajac 26 in 63
Coleman 25 in 79
Zacha 25 in 69
Boyle 23 in 69
Stafford 15 in 59

What would you actually expect from a 20 year old player playing in this space?

I expect a more consistent effort. I think by nature he's a more cerebral player so I think he watches and analyses too much when he should just be attacking the play.

 

[JimEIV]

Zacha needs to earn more ice time.

Unfortunately his play does not warrant more.

So all he needs to do is have 2 even strength assist to be second on the team in ice time(among forwards) like Nico?

 

[MadDevil]

When Miles Wood has 19 goals playing 12 minutes a night, I'm not sure the "Zacha needs more opportunity" argument really holds up.

 

[devilsblood]

So all he needs to do is have 2 even strength assist to be second on the team in ice time like Nico?

Given Zacha has zero points, 2 assists would be a nice start.

Never mind that Nico creates way more chances for himself as well as others.

 

[JimEIV]

When Miles Wood has 19 goals playing 12 minutes a night, I'm not sure the "Zacha needs more opportunity" argument really holds up.

Helps to get PP time.

 

[Camille the Eel]

Getting him to be aggressive has consistently been the thing.

But I can’t believe how much time and space we spend here talking about Zacha. He’s clearly a lightning rod or stalking horse for some other issue with this team.

 

[devilsblood]

When Miles Wood has 19 goals playing 12 minutes a night, I'm not sure the "Zacha needs more opportunity" argument really holds up.

And Miles is a great example of what I think Zacha needs to do. Simplify the game, attack the net, shoot the puck.

Is there more in Zacha's skill set? Sure but those things will still be there with a more aggressive mindset.

 

[devilsblood]

Helps to get PP time.

Wood was worlds better in terms of creating chances at es.

Edit. 5v5 last year Wood led the team in goals per 60. Led the team in individual corsi per 60. Led the team in shots per 60.

Nothing to do with Wood getting some pp minutes last year.

 

[devilsblood]

Getting him to be aggressive has consistently been the thing.

But I can’t believe how much time and space we spend here talking about Zacha. He’s clearly a lightning rod or stalking horse for some other issue with this team.

No, he's the 2nd line center and has zero points. He is as big an issue as any right now.

And granted we are 4-2, so it's not like I'm saying he's a monster problem, but he needs to do more.

 

[MadDevil]

Helps to get PP time.

Zacha had more time on the PP last year than Wood did.

 

[Blender]

Helps to get PP time.

Sure, but Wood only got 3 of his 19 goals on the power play. Zacha had 2 power play goals last season, but the difference is Zacha had 5 even strength goals (and 1 shorthanded) while Wood had 16 even strength goals. At even strength last season Zacha played 12:01 per game, and Wood played 11:30 per game. Wood took 170 shots last season though compared with 112 from Zacha, and Wood had an 11.2% shooting percentage compared with Zacha's 7.1% shooting percentage. It's pretty clear Zacha isn't putting enough pucks on the net, and it's pretty likely that his shot selection is poor.

Zacha also averaged 1:18 pp ice time per game to Wood's 0:57 by the way.

 

[devilsblood]

Going back to the #'s last year Wood is a bit of an unfair comparison given he's at the top of the list in terms of all sorts of individual metrics.


Zacha's #'s although less then, were not far off the pace of Nico's, aside from goals and points, but that can certainly be partly attributable to playing with Hall.

But I think the question now is this year, and if you take away the Washington game, he's been a non factor. The Washington game, which showed what he is capable of, only makes his other games more frustrating. I thought he was OK yesterday, but we need more then just OK from him.