Devils 2016-17 team discussion (player news and notes) - Part VIII

[Devils Dominion]

We don't have room, same reason we'e been trying to send Boucher to Albany for weeks. We would have to get rid of someone, and at that point why not just keep Boucher.

Obviously, Gazdic takes up a roster spot and should be sent down, but that's another issue.

So we chose Gazdic over Boucher and Rattie at the end of the day.

 

[The Great Dame]

Wouldn't be surprised if we put in a claim for Matt Nieto. He's certainly got the speed we're looking for.

 

[JimEIV]

Merrill's a 3rd pairing guy/extra defenseman. He's played better so far this year so maybe there's something more there, but almost all defensemen end up where they belong before 200 games.

I'm not sure "where they belong" means but the developmental jump in many defensmen from from the sophomore year to there 3rd is pretty significant that usually coincides with roughly 200 games. And the kicker is the refinement is not complete.


If you look there are so many Defensmen that hit there stride around the 200 game mark... I suppose this is a bit anecdotal but you see the pattern repeat itself so much.

I just looked at a bunch of random Dmen that came to mind and the pattern is there on just about every one of them. Ryan McDonagh was an exception. He was good from season 2 at 120 games and onward . I also looked at Mark Fayne who seem to stay the same this entire career which is a bit unusual

I understand points and time on ice isn't a deep analysis, but there is no doubt you are seeing a progression...Not only are you see a progression, you are seeing a climax at around the 200 game mark.

Like I said to you once before...I didn't make this up. I literally listened to Scott Stevens explain this. The way he explained was more in terms of year 1 vs years 2 vs year 3 and the learning experience that is required to be an NHL defenseman...When I heard that I sort of formulated my own number of games.

But you see the pattern often.

Ryan Suter
2006-07 82 games 24 points 20:09
2007-08 76 24 ponts 20:35
2008-09 82 45 points 24:16 *206 games


Letang
2006-07 7 games 2 points 11:33
2007-08 63 games 17 points 18:10
2008-09 74 games 33 points 21:09 * 144 games
2009-10 73 games 51 points 21:34 217 games


Weber
2005-06 28 games 10 points 17:00
2006-07 79 games 40 points 19:23
2007-08 54 20 19:30 * This 161 games
2008-09 81 games 53 points 23:58 This is 242 games


How about a non-Star?
Andy Greene - Andy was 24 years when he came into the league
2006-07 23 games 6 points 14:15
2007-08 59 10 points 19:30
2008-09 49 games 9 points 16:17
2009-10 78 games 37 points 23:32 * 209 games



Anton Stralman
2007-08 50 games 9 points 12:49
2008-09 38 13 points 15:34
2009-10 73 34 20:29 161 games


Adam Larsson
2011-12 65 games 18 points 20:37
2012-13 37 games 6 points 18:06
2013-14 26 games 3 points 17:47
2014-15 64 24 points 20:58 *192 games


How about someone that took a while to get 200 games?
Ben Lovejoy
2008-09 2 games 0 points 11:53
2009-10 12 games 3 points 16:37
2010-11 47 games 17 15:00
2011-12 34 5 13:15
2012-13 35 10 17:50 * This is only 130 games
2013-14 78 18 points 19:24 *6th season to hit the 200 game mark

 

[Edmonton East]

Not going to talk about any of your points here, because I said I was done. All I will say is that you are trying to tell me I was wrong about a previous argument you A: can't really remember and B: are not even totally sure I was involved and C: are too lazy to look up or can't figure out how to. You probably shouldn't be telling people what they should and shouldn't do if you can't even remember whether a person was involved or what it was about.

8/30/16 in the team thread. It was a rhetorical question because I knew it was you. I see you do it in threads on here all the time. You misrepresent advanced stats and/or omit relevant data. This gets annoying. You state things as "matter of fact" and some other posters then start believing a player is good or bad at X because you pumped some advanced stat out of context or without relative information. This has been an ongoing issue across HF in recent years as "advanced" stats have become more popular, so it's not like I'm just going after you for this or anything. There were threads about this on the mainboard as well. It's a general problem with how people look at the data.

You're the real winner here because I actually looked it up just now.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Yeah I'm not sure that 25 is the ripe age to give up on a defenseman when Greene was hot garbage until he was like 27 or so

 

[Triumph]

I'm not sure "where they belong" means but the developmental jump in many defensmen from from the sophomore year to there 3rd is pretty significant that usually coincides with roughly 200 games. And the kicker is the refinement is not complete.


If you look there are so many Defensmen that hit there stride around the 200 game mark... I suppose this is a bit anecdotal but you see the pattern repeat itself so much.

I just looked at a bunch of random Dmen that came to mind and the pattern is there on just about every one of them. Ryan McDonagh was an exception. He was good from season 2 at 120 games and onward . I also looked at Mark Fayne who seem to stay the same this entire career which is a bit unusual

I understand points and time on ice isn't a deep analysis, but there is no doubt you are seeing a progression...Not only are you see a progression, you are seeing a climax at around the 200 game mark.

Like I said to you once before...I didn't make this up. I literally listened to Scott Stevens explain this. The way he explained was more in terms of year 1 vs years 2 vs year 3 and the learning experience that is required to be an NHL defenseman...When I heard that I sort of formulated my own number of games.

But you see the pattern often.

Have you considered that Scott Stevens just threw a number out there? How much time do you think Scott Stevens has sat around looking at hockey-reference or hockeydb? Certainly less time than you or I. And then the contrast to all the guys you named are people like Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Paul Martin who basically jumped in and after a year or so were basically as good as they were ever going to be.

Playing defense in the NHL is hard and certainly there's a lot to learn, but I think you'll find that water finds its level far faster than you are claiming for most players. There are always going to be Andy Greenes who take a while to figure it out, but Merrill is where he's almost certainly going to end up - a third-pairing/7th D.

 

[captainscott]

a tribute to boosh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJvdGqjjZng

 

[DevilWithin]

Devils should pick up Nieto off waivers and put him on the fourth line. He's a hard working player.

 

[Jets012]

I don't understand how anyone can actually watch our games, analyze our defenseman and conclude that Severson is the problem. It literally boggles my mind.

He is not even on the same level as Lovejoy, Quincey, Moore. He is significantly better than all of those guys.

He leads all of our defenseman besides Auvitu in CF%. He's significantly higher than Lovejoy, Moore, Quincey in FF%. He's 1st amongst our defenseman in Points Per 60 Minutes, 7th on the team. And he's 29th amongst all defenseman in the league in Points Per 60 Minutes.

He's probably our best defenseman at this point. And when he's not playing with Lovejoy, Moore, or Quincey he typically has a lot of success. It's whenever he gets paired with those scrubs who bring down their opposite pairing he struggles. But put Severson with Greene, Merill, or hell even Santini and he's very good.

 

[JimEIV]

Have you considered that Scott Stevens just threw a number out there? How much time do you think Scott Stevens has sat around looking at hockey-reference or hockeydb? Certainly less time than you or I. And then the contrast to all the guys you named are people like Marc-Edouard Vlasic or Paul Martin who basically jumped in and after a year or so were basically as good as they were ever going to be.

Playing defense in the NHL is hard and certainly there's a lot to learn, but I think you'll find that water finds its level far faster than you are claiming for most players. There are always going to be Andy Greenes who take a while to figure it out, but Merrill is where he's almost certainly going to end up - a third-pairing/7th D.

That was not not the context, numbers weren't at all what he was talking about....I surmised that. The context was specifically the time it takes for defensemen to learn the nuances of the game and also learning those subtleties at NHL speed.

I also remember Stevens saying something about the time it takes to learn the players in the league and what their forte and tendencies were - Essentially raw ability alone is not getting the job the done in the NHL there is a learning process.

 

[Jets012]

And I'm sorry, but Lovejoy is just bad. He's approaching Moore territory. That's a signing that just blew up in our face.

I understand he gets tough minutes, but he's literally always pinned in his own zone. And people like Hynes will look at his block numbers and a play or two in he makes in his own zone and will defend him, without realizing his block numbers are so high because he literally gets trapped in his own zone more than most defenseman.

He's been really bad. His corsi numbers are near the bottom not just on the team, but of the whole league. It's a crime that someone like Auvitu who was playing extremely well on the 5 on 5 is in the AHL while this guy is getting mega minutes for us.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Nieto is a guy that sounds good on paper but I'm not entirely sure he's an upgrade over Bennett or Lappin. Certainly not over Wood.

He has 2 points in 16 games and has been a healthy scratch half the season. If he can't hack it in DeBoer's system I'm not sure he would have success here.

Gazdic is here whether we like it or not, I can't see Hynes taking him out of the lineup anytime soon.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I liked the lineup Hynes used last night but I wanna see this at some point:

Hall-Zacha-PAP
Cammy-Henrique-Palmieri
Kalinin-Zajac-Bennett
Wood-Blandisi-Lappin

The last 2 games Hall and Zacha have looked very strong. Zajac's line with Kalinin and Lappin didn't do as well as I thought it would, so I think Bennett would help with possession/offense. Wood-Blandisi-Lappin could be a dynamite 4th line.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I liked the lineup Hynes used last night but I wanna see this at some point:

Hall-Zacha-PAP
Cammy-Henrique-Palmieri
Kalinin-Zajac-Bennett
Wood-Blandisi-Lappin

The last 2 games Hall and Zacha have looked very strong. Zajac's line with Kalinin and Lappin didn't do as well as I thought it would, so I think Bennett would help with possession/offense. Wood-Blandisi-Lappin could be a dynamite 4th line.

Interesting lines.

I don't like Wood with Blandisi. That line would get stuck in their own end a lot.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I like your top-6, but I would put Wood with Zajac and Bennett. That line would be a nightmare to play against, with Wood causing disruption for two smart possession guys to feed off of.

 

[OmNomNom]

i watched nieto in college hockey while at BU. i remember him being one of the quickest players, and personally my favorite player to watch while I was at school. do want him here.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Agreed on Wood with Zajac and Bennett, that would be very intriguing.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Interesting lines.

I don't like Wood with Blandisi. That line would get stuck in their own end a lot.

It definitely seems like a boom or bust combo. I wouldn't be surprised if it was terrible, but I could see Blandisi consistently springing Wood for breakaways. He's one of the best passers in the organization. And Lappin would be a bit of a stabilizing force. He seems to consistently make safe, smart plays and gets a decent amount of shots on net. If matched up against other teams' 4th lines I think they could do some damage.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Don't be surprised if we go on a bit of a run. We have a favorable schedule for the next month.

 

[Triumph]

I don't want Wood with anyone. Send him down and pick up Nieto.

 

[Edmonton East]

I like your top-6, but I would put Wood with Zajac and Bennett. That line would be a nightmare to play against, with Wood causing disruption for two smart possession guys to feed off of.

But no one to shoot

 

[Bleedred]

I don't want Wood with anyone. Send him down and pick up Nieto.

Meh

Don't really want Nieto. He was pretty good early on when he debuted, but hasn't been too useful in about a year now. He might be better than Wood is now and a few of these other guys we're putting out there.

Not the worst option for the 4th line.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I don't want Wood with anyone. Send him down and pick up Nieto.

He's getting cratered in possession. I'd like to give him a handful more games before demoting him though, because his speed is a real goal creator (whether it be like the goal against Boston or through penalties drawn).

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don't want Wood with anyone. Send him down and pick up Nieto.

He's flawed but I'm perfectly fine with him staying up. I know you're all about stats, but energy and effort matter too. The team feeds off that. I'm fine with him going down and polishing his game but he can learn quite a bit staying here.

 

[217 Forever]

He's flawed but I'm perfectly fine with him staying up. I know you're all about stats, but energy and effort matter too. The team feeds off that. I'm fine with him going down and polishing his game but he can learn quite a bit staying here.

As if I needed more proof of those wonderful advanced stats. Anyone who watches hockey and doesn't think that Wood has been one of our better forwards since he's been up simply has no clue. Yeah he's raw and is nowhere near his ceiling yet, but his heart and passion alone are a reason to keep him up, to say nothing of the opportunities he creates with his speed and hustle.