Detroit Redwings Downfall

[RedHawkDown]

It's confusing what is so confusing. There are reasonable projections based on a numerous factors. There are reasons fans project that the first overall pick is going to turn out better than the 20th pick. Of course, both are unproven, the 20th pick could be as good as the 1st pick, it's not even outside reasonable possibility he could be better. You're insisting there's a double standard if people think guys not on Detroit have a higher ceiling/higher likelihood to reach their ceiling than Detroit, but that's not a double standard, that's just people making projections based on the information that they have to date.

You're offended by what exactly? It seems you actually agree with most of the differing perceptions. If people say 21-year old Buchelnikov is an uncertainty but also say they think 19-year old Demidov will be great, because technically both are uncertainties? That's not people being hypocritical so much as just believing in more in one than the other for various reasons.

I feel like you guys are just messing with me at this point.

One more time: nobody thinks the 20th pick will be as good as the 1st overall pick. Nobody is arguing it. You are making this up and fighting against a ghost argument that not a single person has made.

Here's the argument, one last time as simple as I can lay it out:
Let's say the 20th pick projects as a solid 2C.
Let's say the 1st pick projects as a franchise 1C.

The 20th pick plays a good half-season in the NHL, showing that he might indeed end up being a 2C. The feedback is: he likely won't sustain it, remains to be seen what he'll be, he could regress, not buying it.

The 1st pick plays a good half-season in the NHL, showing that he might indeed end up being a franchise 1C. The feedback is: There it is, we knew it all along, clearly he's going to be a superstar, here it comes.

The logical inconsistency is: one player is being shot down after showing that he can achieve his potential, while the other is being uplifted after showing he can achieve his potential. At no point, ever, has there been even the remote suggestion that those two potentials are the same. They aren't. Kasper is not even close to Carlsson or Fantilli or Michkov or Demidov in potential. Nobody said that. Not me, not any other wings fan in the thread. No one thinks it.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Aww, you don't realize that you and the rest of the Yzerbots are in the minority.



How's that defenseman Justin Holl that Yzerman signed looking? How's that defenseman Jeff Petry that Yzerman acquired looking? How are those forwards Tarasenko and Compher that Yzerman acquired looking? How did that trade of Walman that Yzerman swung for literally nothing only to see San Jose pick up a 1st for him months later looking? How's that defenseman Gustafsson that Yzerman signed looking? How's that goalie Petr Mrazek and his 3.50 GAA that Yzerman acquired looking? How was that dope of a head coach that Yzerman chose to keep around for 36 games looking?

Ey?

You know they can both be true, right? Yzerman's FA signings, trades, and coaching decision can be bad, and Kasper can still be really good? Is that too hard for you?

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

You know they can both be true, right? Yzerman's FA signings, trades, and coaching decision can be bad, and Kasper can still be really good? Is that too hard for you?

You know that one good player doesn't cancel out a dozen terrible decisions, right?

Ken Holland was a disaster from 2012 on, but he drafted Larkin - all is forgiven, right?

 

[WarriorofTime]

And for the umpteenth million time, you've missed the point.
Are you intentionally this obtuse and trolling or is English not your primary language? If it's the language thing, we can work through finding a better way to explain it. I feel it's most likely the first though.

And for the umpteenth time, if the "point" is just a strawman (everyone on Detroit will suck, everyone on every other team will be awesome) that's not so much a "point" as just whining. The true "point" is people think non-Detroit young guys/prospects have higher ceilings than Detroit young guys/prospects, you can complain and disagree if people have those perceptions all you want, but it's not a hypocritical double standard, and using extreme strawmen to try and claim it is is disingenuous.

 

[RedHawkDown]

And for the umpteenth time, if the "point" is just a strawman (everyone on Detroit will suck, everyone on every other team will be awesome) that's not so much a "point" as just whining. The true "point" is people think non-Detroit young guys/prospects have higher ceilings than Detroit young guys/prospects, you can complain and disagree if people have those perceptions all you want, but it's not a hypocritical double standard, and using extreme strawmen to try and claim it is is disingenuous.

This is a fine opinion to have, obviously as Detroit fans we disagree. Nobody argued that point.

Only point that was argued was the logical inconsistency that our guys can't improve and that others will. That's all.

 

[Dotter]

You know they can both be true, right? Yzerman's FA signings, trades, and coaching decision can be bad, and Kasper can still be really good? Is that too hard for you?

Could you imagine what tune he would be singing if Yzerman went after, say, Brandon Montour and outbid his $7.1 cap hit until 2031, until the ripe of 38.

Wings are still in the thick of rebuild and trying to draft talent while also not being Sabres mental midgets. So of course overpaying subpar talent to help the team hover around the bubble. They are effectively paid to play for a losing (rebuilding) team, which proves to be an additional cost.

It's basic common knowledge as your team improves, the more attractive UFA players find you.

This dude calls anyone who doesn't "speak his truth" as "yzerbots". This poster comes across as an insecure little man trying to feel some form of control in his life. I can actually picture this person looks like in real life in my head. LOL! Poor little fella.

 

[dekelikekocur]

And for the umpteenth time, if the "point" is just a strawman (everyone on Detroit will suck, everyone on every other team will be awesome) that's not so much a "point" as just whining. The true "point" is people think non-Detroit young guys/prospects have higher ceilings than Detroit young guys/prospects, you can complain and disagree if people have those perceptions all you want, but it's not a hypocritical double standard, and using extreme strawmen to try and claim it is is disingenuous.

Then stop trying to make strawman arguments because you're the one who keeps intentionally misrepresenting what we're saying and then telling us we're wrong when it's really not even something we're arguing.
Go worry about the shit situation Chicago is in. It's been 5 years, they're on the verge of collapsing by your logic.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is a fine opinion to have, obviously as Detroit fans we disagree. Nobody argued that point.

Only point that was argued was the logical inconsistency that our guys can't improve and that others will. That's all.

It's a strawman though. Nobody said Kasper can't be a good player. More so that he's not at the level *yet* and he may have ups and downs and growing pains on his way to probably eventually being a good player. If you think there's a double standard, you need to be more precise, as I think everyone acknowledges Carlsson, Demidov or whomever will also have their fair of ups and downs, aren't there just yet before maybe eventually hitting their ceiling.

 

[RedHawkDown]

It's a strawman though. Nobody said Kasper can't be a good player. More so that he's not at the level *yet* and he may have ups and downs and growing pains on his way to probably eventually being a good player. If you think there's a double standard, you need to be more precise, as I think everyone acknowledges Carlsson, Demidov or whomever will also have their fair of ups and downs, aren't there just yet before maybe eventually hitting their ceiling.

Right but the point is that plenty of people in here are saying Detroit's rebuild isn't on track because our guys are unlikely to be good players but might get there, while in the same breath saying Anaheim/Montreal/others are on a great path when their young players are just as unproven as ours. None of Anaheim's young guys other than LaCombe have proven anything and he wasn't even a top pick.

Zegras has regressed significantly, Carlsson has a half-season showing he can be a 1C, and plenty of other guys aren't in the NHL yet. In what way is their rebuild on a better course than ours, other than just hyping up their guys and putting down ours for unclear reasons? If we're saying guys like Solberg and Luneau are going to be game-changers, why can't we say the same for Buchelnikov or ASP, who have shown just as much promise in the lower leagues?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I was surprised to see this main board thread has 170 pages. Then I read all the latest posts... I begin to see why...

 

[WarriorofTime]

Wings are still in the thick of rebuild and trying to draft talent while also not being Sabres mental midgets. So of course overpaying subpar talent to help the team hover around the bubble.

And there's the true rub of it all. Whether by poor design or poor luck, the Wings have been stuck in the mud for a few seasons now, at a similar standings spot with placeholder vets and "waiting for the kids". Not good enough for the postseason. Not bad enough to pick super high in the draft. As a faithful Yzerman zealot, you are arguing that the Wings being the same position they were in two years ago is actually a good thing. That he couldn't lack a good plan because he's a genius and he couldn't have failed to fully execute on his plan because that would mean poor decisions were made along the way. So you're instead left to argue that spending multiple years in the spot where they aren't gaining playoff experience and not maximizing their odds at gaining the first crack at the franchise gamebreaking talent in the draft is actually a good thing. This goes against all conventional wisdom that says this is a bad spot to be in the standings, one transitory year is generally fine but you certainly don't want to be stuck there 3-4 years in a row.

Honestly you're better off trying to argue that Seider/Raymond are Schrödinger rebuild pieces, who can singlehandedly make a team in 9th place with tank vets around them when they're 20 years old, but can't push them to 8th when they're 22, while having no concerns that the 1C Larkin maybe already peaked, while also adding DeBrincat who is great, adding Edvinsson and Kasper who are great, adding Johansson who is solid.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

He has his flaws, but he's a prime ribeye compared to the rotten McDonald's hamburger that was Lalonde.

I'll give you that, but wasn't it SY who hired Lalonde?

 

[Artaud]

Could you imagine what tune he would be singing if Yzerman went after, say, Brandon Montour and outbid his $7.1 cap hit until 2031, until the ripe of 38.

Wings are still in the thick of rebuild and trying to draft talent while also not being Sabres mental midgets. So of course overpaying subpar talent to help the team hover around the bubble. They are effectively paid to play for a losing (rebuilding) team, which proves to be an additional cost.

It's basic common knowledge as your team improves, the more attractive UFA players find you.

This dude calls anyone who doesn't "speak his truth" as "yzerbots". This poster comes across as an insecure little man trying to feel some form of control in his life. I can actually picture this person looks like in real life in my head. LOL! Poor little fella.

Are the Wings really "in the thick" of their rebuild? If so, they should be selling players for picks rather than signing/trading for players.

The thick was 2019-2021. That's when they drafted the highest and got their three most important players.


Right now, they are unsuccessfully fighting for a playoff spot. It's a team that has gone through the thick of the rebuild and is trying to climb the next step but cannot hoist itself up with their current group.

It's looking like a Buffalo situation where they will need to tank again after a failed rebuild, because staying in the 10-15 range where they seem to be stalling is no man's land.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I was surprised to see this main board thread has 170 pages. Then I read all the latest posts... I begin to see why...

I'm beginning to think this thread is the only reason @Hockeyfan2390 gets out of bed every morning.

 

[CowbellConray]

I agree they have. Kasper is one example of a guy people are telling us “hasn’t proven he’ll be a 2C yet”. Yes, ok, you’re right he hasn’t. But by the same token - none of the guys I’ve listed have proven they’ll be what they’re supposed to be yet either. Demidov hadn’t even played na NHL game but if you projected him as a 2nd liner people would be saying you’re out to lunch. If Fantilli, who hasn’t proven he’s more than a 50pt C, can get the benefit of the doubt that he still projects as a 1C, why can’t Kasper get the benefit of the doubt that he still projects as a 2C? I’m not saying they’re equal players. They’re not. I’m saying, why are our guys not projectable at their potential level (which, I agree for Kasper is obviously lower than Fantilli/Carlsson etc) and the others are?

ASP is a good example of someone with exceptional pedigree post-draft, comparable to guys like Demidov and other elite prospects around the league. But your own post says thinking he’s gonna be a #3 is wishful thinking. Sure, fine. But if ASP, who has consistently shown elite ability at every single level, is magic beans and can’t be relied on, then by your logic, none of the guys I listed can be relied on either, because none of them have proven they are elite 1W/1C/1D yet either.

I think that's all fair points. Some semantics here, I think we both know where we stand. I understand your points, we can't predict the future. I personally dont hold swedish OFDs in the highest regard until they have come over to the NHL and I see it in person. I also wasn't high on Hutson, and he proved me wrong. So I may just have a bias against those types of players and their ability to translate to the NHL.

But I get what you are saying. I try not to give any player any benefit of the doubt after watching a team like the Sabres for the past decade, so I'll always play down prospects until they are entrenched in roles.

ASP could for sure be held to a higher level by others. to me personally, I think he can safely be placed as a potential top 4 OFD who get's prime PP time. I dont know that I see top pairing, but I'm happy tp be proven wrong.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

Could you imagine what tune he would be singing if Yzerman went after, say, Brandon Montour and outbid his $7.1 cap hit until 2031, until the ripe of 38.

Oh no, an established defenseman with title experience! There's no way that would have been better than Justin Holl and Jeff Petry and Erik Gustafsson!

Actually, Matt Roy was my choice, but your hero was too afraid to give out term - you know, the price of doing business in today's NHL.

Wings are still in the thick of rebuild and trying to draft talent while also not being Sabres mental midgets. So of course overpaying subpar talent to help the team hover around the bubble. They are effectively paid to play for a losing (rebuilding) team, which proves to be an additional cost.

It's basic common knowledge as your team improves, the more attractive UFA players find you.

It's basic common knowledge that Yzerman was hired to be special, not another run of the mill GM. If he can't attract proper talent to the Red Wings, then he's not good at his job.

This dude calls anyone who doesn't "speak his truth" as "yzerbots".

Actually, I never said anything about "speak my truth", because that's a silly phrase. There's no such thing as "my truth"...there's the truth.

Furthermore, your inherent worship of Yzerman and blind loyalty 100% does qualify you as an Yzerbot. Don't like it? Stop fluffing his pillow at every turn and admit that his tenure as Red Wings GM has been, at best, severely underwhelming.

This poster comes across as an insecure little man trying to feel some form of control in his life. I can actually picture this person looks like in real life in my head. LOL! Poor little fella.

And now that you're attempting to make things personal, it only further cements that you have no argument.

This is the part where you recognize that you're in the minority here and give up. Or you can continue, and I'll keep embarrassing you in public and further exposing you as a Stevie slurper. Your choice.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I think that's all fair points. Some semantics here, I think we both know where we stand. I understand your points, we can't predict the future. I personally dont hold swedish OFDs in the highest regard until they have come over to the NHL and I see it in person. I also wasn't high on Hutson, and he proved me wrong. So I may just have a bias against those types of players and their ability to translate to the NHL.

But I get what you are saying. I try not to give any player any benefit of the doubt after watching a team like the Sabres for the past decade, so I'll always play down prospects until they are entrenched in roles.

ASP could for sure be held to a higher level by others. to me personally, I think he can safely be placed as a potential top 4 OFD who get's prime PP time. I dont know that I see top pairing, but I'm happy tp be proven wrong.

Yeah and that's totally fair. I think you've got a pretty reasonable take. Kudos for the reasoned discussion. These are the kinds of posts that I think make this thread worth keeping up.

 

[CowbellConray]

Yeah and that's totally fair. I think you've got a pretty reasonable. Kudos for the reasoned discussion. These are the kinds of posts that I think make this thread worth keeping up.

Yea I try not to downplay anyone's position on here. Keep is reasonable, try to be numbers based, explain the theory behind the points being made.

Appreciate the discussion!

 

[WarriorofTime]

Right but the point is that plenty of people in here are saying Detroit's rebuild isn't on track because our guys are unlikely to be good players but might get there, while in the same breath saying Anaheim/Montreal/others are on a great path when their young players are just as unproven as ours. None of Anaheim's young guys other than LaCombe have proven anything and he wasn't even a top pick.

Zegras has regressed significantly, Carlsson has a half-season showing he can be a 1C, and plenty of other guys aren't in the NHL yet. In what way is their rebuild on a better course than ours, other than just hyping up their guys and putting down ours for unclear reasons? If we're saying guys like Solberg and Luneau are going to be game-changers, why can't we say the same for Buchelnikov or ASP, who have shown just as much promise in the lower leagues?

Anaheim and Detroit had their tankiest years three apart. Detroit finished dead last in 2019-20 and Anaheim in 2022-23.

Anaheim's key pieces, many you didn't mention, are quite a bit younger. Not that Detroit doesn't have guys from those years as well but they were picked lower.

McTavish was 3rd pick in 2021, Gauthier was 5th pick in 2022 (acquired by trading the guy they picked in 2020), Mintyukov was 10th pick in 2022, Carlson was 2nd pick in 2023, Sennecke was 3rd pick in 2024. Also have LaCombe, Zellwegger, Luneau as promising young D. Dostal is a 24 year old goaltender that had a good season. Starting with that 9 as a foundation, even though all probably won't hit, and they have may have some surprises from outside, you can see why there's a lot to be excited about. Honestly if you're still discussing Zegras as being a vital cog, you're not not up to date on Anaheim.

Yeah people may be high on Anaheim who just rose 59 -> 78 points this season, and have all that young talent mentioned above. I'm not sure what you'd be confused about why Detroit who regressed from a season ago and has picks 6, 8, 9, 17, 15 in years 2021-2024 (compared to the Ducks higher picks in those years) isn't currently enjoying the same level of "excitement", or "benefit of the doubt". But I guess I don't actually know your broader point anymore since you keep telling me I'm missing something without fully explaining what "it" is.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

I'm beginning to think this thread is the only reason @Hockeyfan2390 gets out of bed every morning.

Odd, I would have said serving as Yzerman's PR firm would be your reason for getting out of bed in the morning.

Hopefully you're getting discounts on tickets and merchandise in return for your Stevie shilling. Otherwise, it'd be pretty pointless to go to these lengths to defend the honor of someone who doesn't even know you exist.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Anaheim and Detroit had their tankiest years three apart. Detroit finished dead last in 2019-20 and Anaheim in 2022-23.

Anaheim's key pieces, many you didn't mention, are quite a bit younger. Not that Detroit doesn't have guys from those years as well but they were picked lower.

McTavish was 3rd pick in 2021, Gauthier was 5th pick in 2022 (acquired by trading the guy they picked in 2020), Mintyukov was 10th pick in 2022, Carlson was 2nd pick in 2023, Sennecke was 3rd pick in 2024. Also have LaCombe, Zellwegger, Luneau as promising young D. Dostal is a 24 year old goaltender that had a good season. Honestly if you're still discussing Zegras as being a vital cog, you're not not up to date on Anaheim.

Yeah people may be high on Anaheim who just rose 59 -> 78 points this season, and have all that young talent mentioned above. I'm not sure what you'd be confused about why Detroit who regressed from a season ago and has picks 6, 8, 9, 10, 15 in years 2021-2024 (compared to the Ducks higher picks in those years) isn't currently enjoying the same level of "excitement", or "benefit of the doubt". But I guess I don't actually know your broader point anymore since you keep telling me I'm missing something without fully explaining what "it" is.

I'm plenty up to date. So is the only reason that anaheim's picks are more celebrated is that they're higher picks? If that's the whole argument, then sure, I just don't really buy that. If prospects play well, that's what their projection should be based on, not their draft day slot.

I don't see how Zellweger and Luneau are any more promising than ASP who was picked in 2023 too.

I don't see why Mintyukov is somehow more promising than Kasper who's playing a bigger role in the NHL today and was 8th pick in the same draft.

I can see why Carlsson has excitement, same with Sennecke. I don't see why Gauthier should have more excitement other than being picked 5th, over a guy like Buchelnikov picked in the same draft who has shown much more in lower leagues (albeit not proving it in the NHL yet).

If you're arguing that draft slot of Anaheim's guys is enough reason to hold them above every Detroit prospect, then sure, I just don't really buy that draft slot matters much after a year or two. We held on to draft slot with Zadina until he left the league. McTavish is one year younger than Raymond, has yet to clear 60 points in his D+3, and he's apparently still got lots of potential, but Raymond, who scored 72 points last year and improved on that again this year, is apparently done developing? All because *checks notes * McTavish was taken one spot higher? Edvinsson, after a great rookie season and being drafted in the same year as McTavish, is what he is, but McTavish still has plenty of runway, because, why exactly?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Odd, I would have said serving as Yzerman's PR firm would be your reason for getting out of bed in the morning.

Hopefully you're getting discounts on tickets and merchandise in return for your Stevie shilling. Otherwise, it'd be pretty pointless to go to these lengths to defend the honor of someone who doesn't even know you exist.

Nah. I've openly criticized numerous moves. As opposed to you getting a chubby for hating the guy.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't see how Zellweger and Luneau are any more promising than ASP who was picked in 2023 too.

Analyze as a whole and don't just pick out random names compared to other names, please, unless you believe I specifically compared a specific name to a specific other name.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Analyze as a whole and don't just pick out random names compared to other names, please, unless you believe I specifically compared a specific name to a specific other name.

I tried. I made a whole post and you picked out one line, but I'm the one picking random stuff out?

I didn't include LaCombe because he's the same age as Seider and is a comparable player though less proven. I discussed every other player.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

If Yzerman retains perpetual dud McLelland that'll tell you everything you need to know.

Yes genius, please tell the world who should have been hired instead, or who can replace him right now.