Detroit Redwings Downfall

[Pavels Dog]

These are just posts that make you speechless

Carlsson was drafted as a franchise prospect, potential 1C and he’s done nothing but show that promise

Kasper wasn’t drafted as a franchise prospect and he’s never shown franchise potential

Bu Detroit fans always want to give their prospects that chance, even when they’ve never earned it

I believe the point was that they're both young and both should improve.

20 year old Center A: 29 points the last 40GP, +8, 16:07 TOI/GP
20 year old Center B: 27 points the last 40GP, +9, 16:28 TOI/GP

One of these guys is being allowed the benefit of the doubt that he can become an elite, franchise 1C.
The other guy is being hard capped at being exactly what he is today, nothing more.

And unless it's already abundantly clear; Leo Carlsson is a significantly higher tier of talent than Kasper. This is only about being fair in terms of both players having room to improve.

 

[BB88]

I believe the point was that they're both young and both should improve.

20 year old Center A: 29 points the last 40GP, +8, 16:07 TOI/GP
20 year old Center B: 27 points the last 40GP, +9, 16:28 TOI/GP

One of these guys is being allowed the benefit of the doubt that he can become an elite, franchise 1C.
The other guy is being hard capped at being exactly what he is today, nothing more.

And unless it's already abundantly clear; Leo Carlsson is a significantly higher tier of talent than Kasper. This is only about being fair in terms of both players having room to improve.

I don’t think anyone has sais Kasper doesn’t have room to improve, just based on all the data we have pre and post draft he has less potential and is more likely going to end up lesser impact player than Carlsson

That’s also not the fairest post because one was drafted 2022 and is in his +3 season and the other in his +2 season

By all the expectations in his +3 season at 21y Carlsson should be much better than Kasper was in his 21y season

Carlsson was drafted as a franchise 1C prospect
Kasper was drafted as a high end 2C prospect

I see nothing that’s changed post draft

Some Detroit fans have real issues with that some teams have prospects with higher ceiling than theirs and you don’t have to wait 10 years before you can say it out loud

 

[Bank Shot]

I'm not sure why you're insisting on comparing Kasper to guys he plays nothing like. Jeff Skinner? Kasper has roughly as many hits this season as Skinner has the last 6 years combined. Bringing up scoring wingers just makes it sound like you have no idea who the player even is.

I never compared Kasper to Skinner.
Skinner vs Seguin was in a response to a Red Wings fans making that comparison.

Maybe you should try actually reading the thread.

Otherwise it makes it look like you have no idea what you are even responding to.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I’m in management so I give all the busy work to my team, I find plenty of time to screw around on HF.

Doesn't answer the question at all, so par for the course.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Some Detroit fans have real issues with that some teams have prospects with higher ceiling than theirs and you don’t have to wait 10 years before you can say it out loud

I think we have issues with watching young players do really well, show a lot of upside, and have fans of other teams insist that they're not actually doing that well and don't actually have a lot of upside.

 

[CowbellConray]

When talking about a just turned 21yo 8th overall pick who had a great rookie season once the worst coach in the NHL was fired, no we don’t really know what he will become.

We heard this about Larkin when he was 19/20 that we just drafted a 40pt 3rd line player.

A little revisionist with Larkin, he was very quickly talked about as a potential top 6 center, and I know several GMs were trying to move up from the second round to draft him (there is a confirmed story that Tim Murray offered Detroit all three of his 2nd round picks to move up to 14 specifically to draft Larkin).

You will always have supporters and detractors with young players. Not knowing leads to this discussion. Kasper has had a good end of the year. He was stapled to the 4th line, then was moved up and some responsibilities were taken away at the new year, and he started to produce. Then they gave him Center duties with 17 games left, and he did well (11 points in 17 games). That's good promise. But that doesn't mean he is already a top 6 center, and he needs to continue to develop to get there. I think he will end up as a solid #2 center.

Jiri Kulich was shifted to center and the top line for the Sabres earlier this year, and then had 13 points in 18 games, with really good defensive metrics. That doesn't mean he is a top 6 center right now.

 

[CowbellConray]

I think we have issues with watching young players do really well, show a lot of upside, and have fans of other teams insist that they're not actually doing that well and don't actually have a lot of upside.

I think this is a larger conversation around the team success. Some of these guys are in year 3 and 4 of being in the league, and their team isn't getting better. There is a natural progression where sometimes young star players elevate to leaders of their teams around 23-24 years old and raise the overall quality to make them contenders. Detroit's players haven't done that. I think they can maybe get there, but fans from other teams are saying if Detroit hasn't shown the ability to win at the level of playoff teams, why are we comfortable just saying these young players WILL be something they aren't yet? Sure, they may. But it's not a for sure, and I've spent 5 pages of this thread being told by certain Detroit fans that Kasper is FOR SURE a second line center right now (he isn't), and Edvinsson is FOR SURE a future top pairing D, and Seider if he just get's a good partner is FOR SURE a top end #1 D. They could be, but nothing is for sure

 

[FiveTacos]

That’s also not the fairest post because one was drafted 2022 and is in his +3 season and the other in his +2 season

Also cherry picked the 29 points in 40 ... Without pointing out that 28 of those points have come in the most recent 29 games.

Since Feb 1, the u23 players with more than 25 points:
Byfield 30
Carlsson 28
Johnston 27
Michkov 26
Sanderson 26

All those can legitimately have an argument for being on a different tier over prospects who haven't done that.

Some Detroit fans have real issues with that some teams have prospects with higher ceiling than theirs and you don’t have to wait 10 years before you can say it out loud

Well to be fair I do see some outright dismissal of some of Detroit young guys. I do not think we can definitively say we've seen all that even guys like Raymond or Seider are capable of.

But OTOH, in any rebuild, franchise 1C and 1D are the hardest to get, and as you start to move up the standings that 1C in particular starts to get really really hard to find.

 

[TheNewEra]

I don't think anyone's doing that.

if you look at the post i quoted it had a core listed for the future in the core it had

2 forwards not in the league, 1 forward with 1 nhl game, 1 forward with less than 50 games (with meh production so far but young enough where banking on improvement makes sense). So thats 4 forwards where you are banking on them to hit.

ASP being penciled in as the #3 dman. Do not get me wrong i know he has hype and the credentials but penciling in a prospect in that high of a role of the get go rarely works. But even besides that point locking in someone as your future #3 without seeing an nhl game out of him is banking on him to be 100% hit.

then theres 3 other prospects listed as people that would get a look. But the following sentence says that and i quote "That's 14 guys who are 24 and under and are all legit NHL players."

so it might not be you per say but you responded to my post but its clear there are people banking on all of your main prospects hitting 100%. Ask any fanbase, look at any recent prospect pool, that just doesnt happen

 

[VivaLasVegas]

If Yzerman retains perpetual dud McLelland that'll tell you everything you need to know.

 

[RedHawkDown]

These are just posts that make you speechless

Carlsson was drafted as a franchise prospect, potential 1C and he’s done nothing but show that promise

Kasper wasn’t drafted as a franchise prospect and he’s never shown franchise potential

Bu Detroit fans always want to give their prospects that chance, even when they’ve never earned it

Somehow you keep missing the point over and over. Nobody said Kasper is a franchise prospect. I am not saying he’s even CLOSE to Carlsson as a prospect.

Carlsson has not done “nothing but show that promise”. Celebrini has done that. Carlsson has struggled until the 2nd half of this season. I am still 100% sure he’ll be a 1C and be elite at it. The point, which you keep missing (likely on purpose), is that if you can say Carlsson will get better even though he had some struggles for a season and a half, why can’t you say Kasper will when he’s showing a good 2nd half too? Carlsson should still be a franchise 1C and kasper should still be a strong 2C. The comparison had nothing to do, at all, with the level of the two players.

It’s okay if you are too simplistic to understand any comparison beyond so yOuRe SaYinG KaSpEr iS EliTe. Don’t be speechless though, then you’ll never actually understand what is being said.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I believe the point was that they're both young and both should improve.

20 year old Center A: 29 points the last 40GP, +8, 16:07 TOI/GP
20 year old Center B: 27 points the last 40GP, +9, 16:28 TOI/GP

One of these guys is being allowed the benefit of the doubt that he can become an elite, franchise 1C.
The other guy is being hard capped at being exactly what he is today, nothing more.

And unless it's already abundantly clear; Leo Carlsson is a significantly higher tier of talent than Kasper. This is only about being fair in terms of both players having room to improve.

Didn’t notice you already explained. I’m sure the response will still be more wilful ignoran-

I don’t think anyone has sais Kasper doesn’t have room to improve, just based on all the data we have pre and post draft he has less potential and is more likely going to end up lesser impact player than Carlsson

That’s also not the fairest post because one was drafted 2022 and is in his +3 season and the other in his +2 season

By all the expectations in his +3 season at 21y Carlsson should be much better than Kasper was in his 21y season

Carlsson was drafted as a franchise 1C prospect
Kasper was drafted as a high end 2C prospect

I see nothing that’s changed post draft

Some Detroit fans have real issues with that some teams have prospects with higher ceiling than theirs and you don’t have to wait 10 years before you can say it out loud

How are you still not getting that we agree that Carlsson is better? Nobody said that Kasper is equivalent to him? At all? Are you ok man?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Absolutely that is!

Let me know when Kasper hits 50 points in one season.

Oddly he's produced at a 57 point pace since Todd realized Newsy was an idiot and took him off the 4th line...

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Did we ever get a explaining as to why he traded Walman with a top 64 pick for nothing?

It's one of those things that makes so little sense that I have to believe there was a locker room issue.

Like how do you have Maatta, Petry, and Holl and decide that Walman was the guy you needed to attach a 2nd to? I have to think something was wrong there.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I think this is a larger conversation around the team success. Some of these guys are in year 3 and 4 of being in the league, and their team isn't getting better. There is a natural progression where sometimes young star players elevate to leaders of their teams around 23-24 years old and raise the overall quality to make them contenders. Detroit's players haven't done that. I think they can maybe get there, but fans from other teams are saying if Detroit hasn't shown the ability to win at the level of playoff teams, why are we comfortable just saying these young players WILL be something they aren't yet? Sure, they may. But it's not a for sure, and I've spent 5 pages of this thread being told by certain Detroit fans that Kasper is FOR SURE a second line center right now (he isn't), and Edvinsson is FOR SURE a future top pairing D, and Seider if he just get's a good partner is FOR SURE a top end #1 D. They could be, but nothing is for sure

Yes that’s fair but then we are saying this is also true of every other rebuilding team. Demidov could be nothing. Reinbacher could never make the NHL. Yakemchuk could bust and Stutzle never reach his 90pt level again. Michkov could never improve from this year. Fantilli could never get better than a 50pt C. Carlsson too. Bedard could never reach his potential. None of these guys are sure things either, but people have zero issue projecting them to be difference makers based on potential.

The inconsistency we take issue with is guys saying - nah, all those young players will get much better and are sure things, but your young players are complete question marks. Why is there a double standard just for Detroit?

 

[RedHawkDown]

Also cherry picked the 29 points in 40 ... Without pointing out that 28 of those points have come in the most recent 29 games.

Since Feb 1, the u23 players with more than 25 points:
Byfield 30
Carlsson 28
Johnston 27
Michkov 26
Sanderson 26

All those can legitimately have an argument for being on a different tier over prospects who haven't done that.



Well to be fair I do see some outright dismissal of some of Detroit young guys. I do not think we can definitively say we've seen all that even guys like Raymond or Seider are capable of.

But OTOH, in any rebuild, franchise 1C and 1D are the hardest to get, and as you start to move up the standings that 1C in particular starts to get really really hard to find.

I’ll also say it again. Carlsson is a higher tier of prospect. Nobody. Is. Denying. That.

 

[CowbellConray]

Yes that’s fair but then we are saying this is also true of every other rebuilding team. Demidov could be nothing. Reinbacher could never make the NHL. Yakemchuk could bust and Stutzle never reach his 90pt level again. Michkov could never improve from this year. Fantilli could never get better than a 50pt C. Carlsson too. Bedard could never reach his potential. None of these guys are sure things either, but people have zero issue projecting them to be difference makers based on potential.

The inconsistency we take issue with is guys saying - nah, all those young players will get much better and are sure things, but your young players are complete question marks. Why is there a double standard just for Detroit?

Agreed - but Demidov/Bedard/Fantilli/Stutzle have done more either at a prospect level or NHL level compared to someone like Kasper

 

[RedHawkDown]

Agreed - but Demidov/Bedard/Fantilli/Stutzle have done more either at a prospect level or NHL level compared to someone like Kasper

I agree they have. Kasper is one example of a guy people are telling us “hasn’t proven he’ll be a 2C yet”. Yes, ok, you’re right he hasn’t. But by the same token - none of the guys I’ve listed have proven they’ll be what they’re supposed to be yet either. Demidov hadn’t even played na NHL game but if you projected him as a 2nd liner people would be saying you’re out to lunch. If Fantilli, who hasn’t proven he’s more than a 50pt C, can get the benefit of the doubt that he still projects as a 1C, why can’t Kasper get the benefit of the doubt that he still projects as a 2C? I’m not saying they’re equal players. They’re not. I’m saying, why are our guys not projectable at their potential level (which, I agree for Kasper is obviously lower than Fantilli/Carlsson etc) and the others are?

ASP is a good example of someone with exceptional pedigree post-draft, comparable to guys like Demidov and other elite prospects around the league. But your own post says thinking he’s gonna be a #3 is wishful thinking. Sure, fine. But if ASP, who has consistently shown elite ability at every single level, is magic beans and can’t be relied on, then by your logic, none of the guys I listed can be relied on either, because none of them have proven they are elite 1W/1C/1D yet either.

 

[Czechboy]

Oddly he's produced at a 57 point pace since Todd realized Newsy was an idiot and took him off the 4th line...

And Adam Klapka is at a 82 point pace since he got promoted to the first line. I like Kasper's chances more next season for points.lol

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

And Adam Klapka is at a 82 point pace since he got promoted to the first line. I like Kasper's chances more next season for points.lol

Yes. 2 game sample size to half a season are very similar.

Thanks for keeping the discussion logical.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes that’s fair but then we are saying this is also true of every other rebuilding team. Demidov could be nothing. Reinbacher could never make the NHL. Yakemchuk could bust and Stutzle never reach his 90pt level again. Michkov could never improve from this year. Fantilli could never get better than a 50pt C. Carlsson too. Bedard could never reach his potential. None of these guys are sure things either, but people have zero issue projecting them to be difference makers based on potential.

The inconsistency we take issue with is guys saying - nah, all those young players will get much better and are sure things, but your young players are complete question marks. Why is there a double standard just for Detroit?

It's confusing what is so confusing. There are reasonable projections based on a numerous factors. There are reasons fans project that the first overall pick is going to turn out better than the 20th pick. Of course, both are unproven, the 20th pick could be as good as the 1st pick, it's not even outside reasonable possibility he could be better. You're insisting there's a double standard if people think guys not on Detroit have a higher ceiling/higher likelihood to reach their ceiling than Detroit, but that's not a double standard, that's just people making projections based on the information that they have to date.

You're offended by what exactly? It seems you actually agree with most of the differing perceptions. If people say 21-year old Buchelnikov is an uncertainty but also say they think 19-year old Demidov will be great, because technically both are uncertainties? That's not people being hypocritical so much as just believing in more in one than the other for various reasons.

 

[dekelikekocur]

It's confusing what is so confusing. There are reasonable projections based on a numerous factors. There are reasons fans project that the first overall pick is going to turn out better than the 20th pick. Of course, both are unproven, the 20th pick could be as good as the 1st pick, it's not even outside reasonable possibility he could be better. You're insisting there's a double standard if people think guys not on Detroit have a higher ceiling/higher likelihood to reach their ceiling than Detroit, but that's not a double standard, that's just people making projections based on the information that they have to date.

You're offended by what exactly? It seems you actually agree with most of the differing perceptions. If people say 21-year old Buchelnikov is an uncertainty but also say they think 19-year old Demidov will be great, because technically both are uncertainties? That's not people being hypocritical so much as just believing in more in one than the other for various reasons.

And for the umpteenth million time, you've missed the point.
Are you intentionally this obtuse and trolling or is English not your primary language? If it's the language thing, we can work through finding a better way to explain it. I feel it's most likely the first though.

 

[Dotter]

There are so many replies because there are so many Wings fans willing to defend against the criticisms. Usually when people are talking about disappointing situations the home fans are somewhat in agreement. Whereas in this case basically everyone outside of Wings fans sees the same thing but Detroit fans insist on another perspective.

Sabres fans are not adamantly defending their process so everyone just shrugs and moves on.

Defend against:

- All NHL team's prospects will improve whereas Detroit's will regress.
- Seider is a #2 dman (bottom 30 NHL defenseman in the league)
- OTT and MTL are ahead in the rebuild - (When they drafted Chabot in 2015, Tkchuck 2018 / Suzuki 2018, #1 pick 2022) -so duh?
- Kasper's rise likely unsustainable / too short of sample size
- Raymond will never achieve superstar status
- 9 years of missing falls 100% Yzerman's shoulders
- Must NEVER mention anything Ken Holland did, unless it's about his drafting greatness of Mantha and Larkin
- Signing placeholders = ending the rebuild

I guess the most interesting part to me is every NHL team have prospects and young NHL players that will improve, except for Detroit. Detroit prospects and NHL rookies are all subpar and/or unsustainably peaked.

You can't argue against that kind of jedi mind tactics. Oh, and everyone is a pro insider on all Detroit's assets after reviewing eliteprospects for 27 seconds!

I'm just taking the more simple approach. It's naughty, but what I do is just listen to what SFY has said since arriving in Detroit. Not achieving greatness fast enough? Okay fine. That's your opinion. Too bad he can't shit out a Mckinnon and Makar!

Then look at his UFA placeholder signings --we are not allowed to call them that, we have to call them bad franchise crippling signings made out of desperation -- but if you look at the UFA signings, that tells a story when Yzerman plans the rebuild to start curving upward. These contracts expire around 2026/2027-ish.

That in itself tells a story. Keep your ear close to the ground and you can hear the buffalo coming. Or in this case, the Red Wings.

I guess the big question is does Yzerman think the rebuild is stagnant?
That's the BIG question. I have not felt any inclination of that in any of his interviews. But I have been told that by about 10 HF-pros posters (who are realgud at navigating eliteprospects free version) redundantly about 1,700 times each, in various different ways, in this thread alone.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

If Yzerman retains perpetual dud McLelland that'll tell you everything you need to know.

When McLellan was hired, he was signed to a multi-year deal.

He has his flaws, but he's a prime ribeye compared to the rotten McDonald's hamburger that was Lalonde.

 

[Hockeyfan2390]

"Convincing you was never the goal. True control is hearing your voice echo my truth." -Hockeyfan2390

Everyone sees through your bullshit.

Aww, you don't realize that you and the rest of the Yzerbots are in the minority.

That being said, the kid Yzerman drafted with the named Kasper on his jersey.... looking pretty damn good, ey.

How's that defenseman Justin Holl that Yzerman signed looking? How's that defenseman Jeff Petry that Yzerman acquired looking? How are those forwards Tarasenko and Compher that Yzerman acquired looking? How did that trade of Walman that Yzerman swung for literally nothing only to see San Jose pick up a 1st for him months later looking? How's that defenseman Gustafsson that Yzerman signed looking? How's that goalie Petr Mrazek and his 3.50 GAA that Yzerman acquired looking? How was that dope of a head coach that Yzerman chose to keep around for 36 games looking?

Ey?