Detroit Redwings Downfall

[Artaud]

Looking at a player's total points isn't scouting or "talent evaluation" though. Talking about Kasper/Danielson/MBN lacking offensive upside like you do reeks of watching a hockeyDB page more than watching the player. You bring up his AHL numbers which is a great example of statwatchers being completely off on him.

I love how you accuse me of stat watching when you're the guy who said Raymond was on a trajectory similar to Kucherov based on a cursory glance at their hockeyDB pages. You keep bringing up point totals at x age compared to x player to show that your guy could become as good as the other guy. But what matters is the eye-test.

I totally agree that points isn't scouting and that's my point. Detroit fans seem to have an entirely different evaluation of their player's talent than the rest of the world. This thread is essentially a handful of delusional Detroit fans arguing that their young players have a level of untapped potential that everybody else just doesn't see. The Kasper vs. Johnston debate is proof of that. There is no debate in most people's eyes.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Right, theoretically Kasper could end up better than Celebrini.

Of course we have an idea of the ceiling young players have, that's what scouting is all about... Just because you disagree with the consensus doesn't mean you can pretend like talent evaluation is voodoo and anything can happen.

When talking about a just turned 21yo 8th overall pick who had a great rookie season once the worst coach in the NHL was fired, no we don’t really know what he will become.

We heard this about Larkin when he was 19/20 that we just drafted a 40pt 3rd line player.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Detroit fans seem to have an entirely different evaluation of their player's talent than the rest of the world. This thread is essentially a handful of delusional Detroit fans arguing that their young players have a level of untapped potential that everybody else just doesn't see.

LOL, this thread has over 4,000 replies with no other thread on the front page coming close, but yes Detroit fans are the ones who are delusional.

 

[Czechboy]

If that's the worst you can do in a hyperbolic post about Wings fans it actually kind of sounds like we're a fairly reasonable bunch.

I think you are using 'hyperbolic' wrong.

 

[Czechboy]

Moving goalposts. Even if that was true, being the 17th, 19th or 25th best #2C in the league still doesn't mean you're not a 2C.


Nah I'd say we're evaluating as we go and keeping realistic expectations. Mazur looks like an NHLer, Buium has potential. You're writing players off too early. People did that a year ago with Johansson/Söderblom and I'd say they've been proven wrong this season.


I'd rank him ahead of Smith and Michkov in the 2nd half.


I don't think anyone's doing that.


No one would get Norris talk with that kind of deployment and being stapled to Ben Chiarot.

That said:

Heiskanen age 20-23 seasons: 272GP, 171pts, 0.63pts/GP, 24:48 TOI/GP
Seider age 20-23 seasons: 325GP, 174pts, 0.54pts/GP, 23:23 TOI/GP


Not sure I follow. Why does Kasper need to be = Johnston? The guy I actually like comparing Kasper to is Roope Hintz. It's a better parallel as a european center and one who wasn't setting scoring records as a 18-19 year old.


~45% is actually great for a young/rookie center. Similar FO% to Stützle and around ~10% better than Jack Hughes.

45 percent is great for a young C. But not a legit nhl 2C. Which he isnt today. But yes, deteoits second best C and having an okay season for a 21 year old drafted in top 10.

On a fun note.. he has the same amount of nhl points as zadina at the same age.

Zadina at D plus 3 was 37 points in 85 nhl games. Kasper is 34 points in 75 games.

Crazy, right?

 

[Bank Shot]

Why are the odds pretty low?


1. He’s not the same age, he’s a year younger, which is awfully important when talking about 20/21 year olds

2. Jeff Skinner was better than Seguin and Brock Nelson early. Doubt anyone takes him over those two guys long term

Ehlers was arguably better than Reinhart early.

Etc etc

The odds are low because past success usually predicts future succes.

Johnston at 19 scored 40 points in the NHL.
Kasper scored 35 points in the AHL.
Johnston at 20 scored 65 points in the NHL
Kasper at 20 scored 30 points.

Johnston broke in with a team that is much harder to get playing time on then the Detroit Red Wings as well. Lots of competition for that ice time that he got.

If you look at Skinner vs Seguin. One guy broke in on a non playoff team. The other guy was a rookie on the team that won the Cup. Seguin passed Skinner in his sophomore season. And never looked back.

Kasper has the easier path than Johnston and he is still tracking well behind him.

You can ask yourself why Kasper can't become the next Kucherov if you aren't going to bother to apply any kind of logical thinking to his trajectory.

 

[nbwingsfan]

The odds are low because past success usually predicts future succes.

Johnston at 19 scored 40 points in the NHL.
Kasper scored 35 points in the AHL.
Johnston at 20 scored 65 points in the NHL
Kasper at 20 scored 30 points.

Johnston broke in with a team that is much harder to get playing time on then the Detroit Red Wings as well. Lots of competition for that ice time that he got.

If you look at Skinner vs Seguin. One guy broke in on a non playoff team. The other guy was a rookie on the team that won the Cup. Seguin passed Skinner in his sophomore season. And never looked back.

Kasper has the easier path than Johnston and he is still tracking well behind him.

You can ask yourself why Kasper can't become the next Kucherov if you aren't going to bother to apply any kind of logical thinking to his trajectory.

And Tom Wilson didn’t become a quality NHL player until his like 5th or 6th season

Reinhart looked like your average 2nd line player with Buffalo

Sam Bennett looked like a bust

Laine looked like the next great thing

You can go on and on. Yes Johnston has been better, but counting things like a sure fire bet when these players are in their D+3 and D+4 is very strange

 

[Frobbo]

Seider isn't lagging at all. He's not an OFD and never was so he'll never put up the numbers that Hughes/Makar/Hutson etc will. He's easily at Heiskanen's level.

Um, not even close. I doubt many of even the biggest RW fans would agree

 

[bert]

2020-21	23	CHI	NHL	RW	52	32	24	56	3	12	22	9	1	7	15	9	0	155	20.6	268	1068:04	20:32	16	24	40.0	22	70	31	43	ASnhl-5,Byng-26
2021-22	24	CHI	NHL	RW	82	41	37	78	-13	19	27	14	0	6	23	14	0	270	15.2	470	1710:13	20:51	24	40	37.5	35	101	67	47	ASG,Byng-64
2022-23	25	OTT	NHL	RW	82	27	39	66	-31	45	16	11	0	6	20	19	0	263	10.3	471	1558:31	19:00	10	9	52.6	38	109	44	39
2023-24	26	DET	NHL	RW	82	27	40	67	1	34	16	11	0	1	32	8	0	237	11.4	482	1467:09	17:54	16	22	42.1	35	66	49	39	ASG
2024-25	27	DET	NHL	RW	79	36	31	67

These are bad seasons? Not to mention he was playing on rebuilding teams the for each of these seasons.

For 8 .million and a guy that doesn't drive a line i don't like the investment as an undersized winger. That's ok to dissagree.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Um, not even close. I doubt many of even the biggest RW fans would agree

Care to explain why he’s not even close when he’s at the same PPG outside of Heiskanen one high scoring season, with similar defensive metrics and actually much harder deployment ?

 

[Bank Shot]

And Tom Wilson didn’t become a quality NHL player until his like 5th or 6th season

Reinhart looked like your average 2nd line player with Buffalo

Sam Bennett looked like a bust

Laine looked like the next great thing

You can go on and on. Yes Johnston has been better, but counting things like a sure fire bet when these players are in their D+3 and D+4 is very strange

Not really. If you look at the average career arc, the majority of guys hit their relative peak in their 3-5th NHL seasons. And most guys don't take crazy leaps out of nowhere from one season to the next.

Yeah, you can find exceptions, but you also can't bank on a guy being an exception.

From what I have seen, people that make predictions based on reasonable expectations gleaned from past success tend to be more successful at predicting the future than those that base their predictions on other things.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Not really. If you look at the average career arc, the majority of guys hit their relative peak in their 3-5th NHL seasons. And most guys don't take crazy leaps out of nowhere from one season to the next.

Yeah, you can find exceptions, but you also can't bank on a guy being an exception.

From what I have seen, people that make predictions based on reasonable expectations gleaned from past success tend to be more successful at predicting the future than those that base their predictions on other things.

Fair way to look at it. In that case, can we predict Buchelnikov to be a star given his near historic U21 KHL season? How about ASP and back to back best dman at the WJC and near PPG in the Shl playoffs ?

Or do past successes only apply to other teams players, and Detroit prospects must have tempered expectations ?

 

[Run the Jewels]

Fair way to look at it. In that case, can we predict Buchelnikov to be a star given his near historic U21 KHL season? How about ASP and back to back best dman at the WJC and near PPG in the Shl playoffs ?

Or do past successes only apply to other teams players, and Detroit prospects must have tempered expectations ?

Kudos to you, I have no idea why you continue to debate with people who are disingenuous and whose concern about Detroit's prospects is pretty transparent.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Kudos to you, I have no idea why you continue to debate with people who are disingenuous and whose concern about Detroit's prospects is pretty transparent.

It’s honestly because 1) I’ve got too much time on my hands these days and 2) it’ll be very fun to look back on in a few years; for better or worse

 

[Samsquanch]

I personally just really don't like their roster. They will never have enough high end talent to really compete imo. Bottom line.

The Sens and Habs are already a mile ahead, and even Buffalo has a much more solid foundation to build from imo.

Comparatively speaking, the Yzerplan has completely failed imo. For too many useless contracts and misses in free agency. No big or notable trades that helped the team other than Debrincat - and the Sens used his return to aquire Ulmark, in retrospect.

If the wings fans still believe in their core then I'm fine with that as a rival fan. I just don't see it happening anymore, personally speaking.

 

[Fatass]

I personally just really don't like their roster. They will never have enough high end talent to really compete imo. Bottom line.

The Sens and Habs are already a mile ahead, and even Buffalo has a much more solid foundation to build from imo.

Comparatively speaking, the Yzerplan has completely failed imo. For too many useless contracts and misses in free agency. No big or notable trades that helped the team other than Debrincat - and the Sens used his return to aquire Ulmark, in retrospect.

If the wings fans still believe in their core then I'm fine with that as a rival fan. I just don't see it happening anymore, personally speaking.

Imo the Wings are very close to making a huge jump in the standings. They need a number pairing offensive D man and an elite (point producing) centre. If Yzerman can steal those pieces from other clubs, or discover in the draft like Habs did with Hutson, they are looking great. If he can’t land those two key players, then they will stay stuck.

 

[TheDoldrums]

LOL, this thread has over 4,000 replies with no other thread on the front page coming close, but yes Detroit fans are the ones who are delusional.

There are so many replies because there are so many Wings fans willing to defend against the criticisms. Usually when people are talking about disappointing situations the home fans are somewhat in agreement. Whereas in this case basically everyone outside of Wings fans sees the same thing but Detroit fans insist on another perspective.

Sabres fans are not adamantly defending their process so everyone just shrugs and moves on.

 

[Run the Jewels]

It’s honestly because 1) I’ve got too much time on my hands these days and 2) it’ll be very fun to look back on in a few years; for better or worse

Oh yeah, I will have this bookmarked. It's gonna be savage.

 

[Run the Jewels]

There are so many replies because there are so many Wings fans willing to defend against the criticisms. Usually when people are talking about disappointing situations the home fans are somewhat in agreement. Whereas in this case basically everyone outside of Wings fans sees the same thing but Detroit fans insist on another perspective.

Why on earth do you care about what Red Wings fans think about their team? Surely you must have better things to do with your time, yeah? Yeah?

 

[TheDoldrums]

Why on earth do you care about what Red Wings fans think about their team? Surely you must have better things to do with your time, yeah? Yeah?

I’m in management so I give all the busy work to my team, I find plenty of time to screw around on HF.

 

[Dotter]

He appears to be one of the (thankfully shrinking) number of Detroit fans who can't bring themselves to criticize their childhood hero.

"Convincing you was never the goal. True control is hearing your voice echo my truth." -Hockeyfan2390

Everyone sees through your bullshit.

That being said, the kid Yzerman drafted with the named Kasper on his jersey.... looking pretty damn good, ey.

 

[Dotter]

I agree they have a core that is close to being competitive.

I don't think they have a core that is close to being a contender.

Is a 10 year rebuild worth it if your team tops out as a 4-6th seed in the conference?

Missed Opportunities & Mismanagement
Chychrun. Necas or Suzuki. Hughes.
Had those moves been made, this team would’ve had the depth to be a playoff lock. The GM who passed on that kind of talent should’ve been shown the door years ago.

Unfortunately, the guy brought in to clean up that mess — Yzerman — spent the next three seasons just getting the ship back on course. And now here we are, nine years without a playoff berth.

Letting Ken Holland fumble a rebuild was Ilitch’s biggest mistake.

But… The Future? It’s Finally Bright.
Yzerman has injected more youth into this team than I’ve seen in my lifetime. These rookies aren’t just warm bodies — they’re difference-makers, and they’re only going to get better year over year.

And we’re not done. The pipeline is still loaded.

I predicted playoffs by 2027 — and honestly, they’re ahead of schedule.

In the Meantime...
While we wait, at least I get to enjoy the one playoff tradition I’ve gotten used to:
Making fun of the teams that choke in the first round.

That said... looking at the standings, this might actually be the year Toronto breaks through to Round 2.
(Shame. I was really enjoying that annual collapse.)

 

[BB88]

So carlsson with 44 pts in the season and Sennecke in junior is a franchise building block , but all our guys won’t get any better? Lol? How do you not see the clear lack of logic here?

If the entirety of you analysis is based on how high a teams prospects were picked…that’s a bad analysis

These are just posts that make you speechless

Carlsson was drafted as a franchise prospect, potential 1C and he’s done nothing but show that promise

Kasper wasn’t drafted as a franchise prospect and he’s never shown franchise potential

Bu Detroit fans always want to give their prospects that chance, even when they’ve never earned it

 

[BB88]

Missed Opportunities & Mismanagement
Chychrun. Necas or Suzuki. Hughes.
Had those moves been made, this team would’ve had the depth to be a playoff lock. The GM who passed on that kind of talent should’ve been shown the door years ago.

Unfortunately, the guy brought in to clean up that mess — Yzerman — spent the next three seasons just getting the ship back on course. And now here we are, nine years without a playoff berth.

Letting Ken Holland fumble a rebuild was Ilitch’s biggest mistake.

But… The Future? It’s Finally Bright.
Yzerman has injected more youth into this team than I’ve seen in my lifetime. These rookies aren’t just warm bodies — they’re difference-makers, and they’re only going to get better year over year.

And we’re not done. The pipeline is still loaded.

I predicted playoffs by 2027 — and honestly, they’re ahead of schedule.

In the Meantime...
While we wait, at least I get to enjoy the one playoff tradition I’ve gotten used to:
Making fun of the teams that choke in the first round.

That said... looking at the standings, this might actually be the year Toronto breaks through to Round 2.
(Shame. I was really enjoying that annual collapse.)

That’s ridiculous expectations. Basically saying you’ve had zero expectations for their rebuild..

Might as well trade Larkin before wasting his prime completely

Edit,

& with Ottawa, Columbus& Montreal already jumping over you I don’t know how you are ahead of your schedule, when you just had a down year

Columbus and Montreal started their rebuild and they have higher end prospects that have more potential to grow than yours

 

[Pavels Dog]

I love how you accuse me of stat watching when you're the guy who said Raymond was on a trajectory similar to Kucherov based on a cursory glance at their hockeyDB pages. You keep bringing up point totals at x age compared to x player to show that your guy could become as good as the other guy. But what matters is the eye-test.

I don't love the Kucherov comparison and I've made it abundantly clear in every post where that's discussed that I don't believe Raymond will reach that level. However I don't believe statistics should be ignored, I just don't believe you're honestly trying to evaluate Kasper.

If you were, you might compare him to guys like Elias Lindholm, Roope Hintz, Joel Eriksson Ek, Sean Coutourier, etc.
Is he scoring at a far worse level than all of them were?

Detroit fans seem to have an entirely different evaluation of their player's talent than the rest of the world. This thread is essentially a handful of delusional Detroit fans arguing that their young players have a level of untapped potential that everybody else just doesn't see.

That's not in line with reality even if you want it to be. The "rest of the world" was wrong on Seider, on Raymond, on Edvinsson and now Kasper. All these guys already look like far better players than those who only statwatch said they'd become.

On a fun note.. he has the same amount of nhl points as zadina at the same age.

Zadina at D plus 3 was 37 points in 85 nhl games. Kasper is 34 points in 75 games.

Crazy, right?

No, it's not "crazy", it's just a very misleading comparison. Zadina was one year older and like some other posters here you are reaching for comparisons with pure scoring wingers.

The odds are low because past success usually predicts future succes.

Johnston at 19 scored 40 points in the NHL.
Kasper scored 35 points in the AHL.
Johnston at 20 scored 65 points in the NHL
Kasper at 20 scored 30 points.

Johnston broke in with a team that is much harder to get playing time on then the Detroit Red Wings as well. Lots of competition for that ice time that he got.

If you look at Skinner vs Seguin. One guy broke in on a non playoff team. The other guy was a rookie on the team that won the Cup. Seguin passed Skinner in his sophomore season. And never looked back.

Kasper has the easier path than Johnston and he is still tracking well behind him.

You can ask yourself why Kasper can't become the next Kucherov if you aren't going to bother to apply any kind of logical thinking to his trajectory.

No one is saying Kasper will be the next Kucherov, and I'm not sure I've even seen someone saying he's a great comparable to Johnston either.
I'm not sure why you're insisting on comparing Kasper to guys he plays nothing like. Jeff Skinner? Kasper has roughly as many hits this season as Skinner has the last 6 years combined. Bringing up scoring wingers just makes it sound like you have no idea who the player even is.

The Sens and Habs are already a mile ahead

Wings had 91 points last year. Habs will land with 88-92 points. Sens will land with 94-98 points, as a team essentially all-in.
Next year they all start at zero again.