Detroit Redwings Downfall

[Czechboy]

I agree he's shown more potential. But he's trending down and Raymond is trending up. And in either case, the point I'm making is that neither of these guys are done developing and what they are today isn't their top end. if they were, then they're both 75 pt guys moving forward and both the rebuilds aren't going anywhere.

Stutzl did already have a 90 point season. So I'm not sure why 75 point is his ceiling when he's already shown he can do it.

Raymond can absolutely do it too though... he's 23 and flirting with .ppg and team will improve around him. However, if it's another 70 to 75 point season next year. That'd be 3 in a row. Hoping for a big breakout for him which is definitely possible and he cracks that 82 point mark. Took one of my favs Necas till this season to do it.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'm not being defensive. You just missed the point yet again. I'm not saying Ottawa is doing poorly or that we're better. I'm actually saying the opposite with regards to Stutzle.

Ottawa's only good prospect is Yakemchuk. If Stutzle has topped out and doesn't improve, they're f***ed and will never compete. I don't think that's the case - I think he has tons of room to improve and become much better, just like Raymond. You are the one saying Raymond's done developing - by that token, so is Stutzle, and that bodes very poorly for Ottawa. and same goes for all the other teams with 22-24 year old players in the NHL.

Also funny you mention "get to where Ottawa's at" after a single season. Detroit finished 10 points ahead of Ottawa last year, and look where we are now. Funny how quickly things can change, and how confidently predicting the future of a young team is a fool's errand, isn't it?

No idea what you’re even trying to say. You didn’t even address my original point just went on a tangent about Ottawa and how they don’t have many more prospects coming up, which I suppose could be a problem. So you turned a discussion about how the rest of the world views Detroit’s guys as some sort of refutation of the idea that 24 year olds are washed or something. If Raymond gets 100 points next year and Seider is a Norris finalist everyone will clap for them obviously. The level of defensiveness is obviously apparent. Ottawa got a goalie and made a big step forward. Not sure what is foolish. You think it’s silly to suggest Ottawa who is 11 points better than Detroit is ahead? Detroit was like 21 points better than Columbus two years ago. They were ending Yzerman’s career in Tampa Bay the same year the wings were drafting Seider. Then went through a tank cycle, their best player tragically died and now they’re basically even. That kind of trend is objectively a bad sign for Detroit’s future.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I just don't see why we have to accept that every other team's young players are going to be awesome, but that ours are all giant question marks?

I can see you are new here, welcome to HF Boards.

 

[Fatass]

Just went through the top 10 teams in the NHL and their best defensemen:
Jets: Josh Morrissey
Capitals: Chychrun/Carlson
VGK: Pietrangelo
Stars: Heiskanen or Harley
TML: Rielly
Avs; Makar
Hurricanes: Slavin
Panthers: probably Forsling?

The only guy that was a clearly better offensive players at Seider's age is Makar. Heiskanen put up one season at 70+ and otherwise he's more of a 40-50 guy. All the others: Morrissey, Carlson, Chychrun this year, Rielly, never put up 60+ points until their mid-to-late 20s, ie a defenseman's prime. Guys like Pietrangelo, Slavin, Forsling never put up those points at all. All those teams are contenders.

You do not need an all-situations offensive 1D to thrive; the only teams that even have that player are Colorado and Vancouver. What you need is an overall competent D-corps. Yzerman's issue is not that he has failed to get a 1D. It's that he has a 1D (Seider), a 2/3D (Ed), two 5D (Chiarot/Johansson), and then three 6/7/AHL D (Petry, Gustafsson, Holl). The depth is the issue on Detroit's blue line, not the star power.

Once again people really don't understand the team's problems at all lol.

Seider is really good. I’m not saying he is any but a good D man. I’m suggesting he’d be even better in a #2 role beside an offensive guy. Seider would play his give on five minutes with that elite offensive D man (making that player better too) and play PK 1 and PP 2. Imagine Seider with Lane Hutson! That’s what I was trying to get at.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I never said guys have no chance of being high quality NHLers. I'm just taking about likelihood.

Kasper for example is pretty much the same age as Wyatt Johnston. The chances of him being a better player are pretty low at this point even if it is a theoretical possibility.

When you say to yourself well if so and so prospects hit and become great players, do you extend that same latitude to the other 31 teams in the league?

Why are the odds pretty low?


1. He’s not the same age, he’s a year younger, which is awfully important when talking about 20/21 year olds

2. Jeff Skinner was better than Seguin and Brock Nelson early. Doubt anyone takes him over those two guys long term

Ehlers was arguably better than Reinhart early.

Etc etc

 

[FiveTacos]

If Leo Carlsson was taken 11th overall, he'd be seen as struggling. But since he was taken 3rd, any hint of elite play is seen as confirmation that he's going to be the franchise-changing talent he was supposed to be when drafted.

Hold on, I can accept as a reasonable argument that Kasper has a recent pace that indicates that it's not unreasonable to expect a 50 point full season next year. Maybe wouldn't agree, but it's based on something tangible.

But then you should apply the same reasoning to Carlsson if you're comparing directly ... and he has 28 in his last 28. So instead of knocking him for "only" 44 points as if he's a disappointment, perhaps you should, for consistency, talk about his 82 point pace.

And I would suggest that if someone had taken him 11th they'd be absolutely giddy right now.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Hold on, I can accept as a reasonable argument that Kasper has a recent pace that indicates that it's not unreasonable to expect a 50 point full season next year. Maybe wouldn't agree, but it's based on something tangible.

But then you should apply the same reasoning to Carlsson if you're comparing directly ... and he has 28 in his last 28. So instead of knocking him for "only" 44 points as if he's a disappointment, perhaps you should, for consistency, talk about his 82 point pace.

And I would suggest that if someone had taken him 11th they'd be absolutely giddy right now.

Yes I totally agree that Carlsson will be elite. That’s my whole point. I just want consistent reasoning. If we are saying Detroits kids are all magic beans and will probably not get better because none of them have proven they are elite, then you also have to say guys like Carlsson and Fantilli and Celebrini and Bedard are also all magic beans. But I don’t think that myself. I said it in another post too - I think Carlsson will be elite and by the same token I think Kasper will be a great 2C with an outside shot at 1C.

 

[Artaud]

Why are the odds pretty low?


1. He’s not the same age, he’s a year younger, which is awfully important when talking about 20/21 year olds

2. Jeff Skinner was better than Seguin and Brock Nelson early. Doubt anyone takes him over those two guys long term

Ehlers was arguably better than Reinhart early.

Etc etc

Too much cherry picking examples by Yzerman truthers in this thread... your examples don't even make sense.

32 GM's out of 32 would trade Kasper for Johnson based on production and eye test. That was not the case Reinhart vs Ehlers or Seguin vs. Skinner.

I agree with what Czechboy said. If all of Detroit's young guns pan out like their fans want them too, then the Yzerplan will be a success. But a healthy dose of scepticism is needed here.

 

[Miller Time]

Pretty poor rebuild thus far, mostly from bad UFA and trade decisions. Drafting and development seems to be pretty solid but overall asset & cap management has been poor.

I thought he'd have turned things around in Detroit much faster, as a fan of a division rival I'm glad he's failed so far and hope he keeps building in the same direction lol

 

[WarriorofTime]

Why are the odds pretty low?


1. He’s not the same age, he’s a year younger, which is awfully important when talking about 20/21 year olds

2. Jeff Skinner was better than Seguin and Brock Nelson early. Doubt anyone takes him over those two guys long term

Ehlers was arguably better than Reinhart early.

Etc etc

Johnston had 65 points and then 16 in 19 in the postseason last year. Kasper is not where he was a year ago.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yes I totally agree that Carlsson will be elite. That’s my whole point. I just want consistent reasoning. If we are saying Detroits kids are all magic beans and will probably not get better because none of them have proven they are elite, then you also have to say guys like Carlsson and Fantilli and Celebrini and Bedard are also all magic beans. But I don’t think that myself. I said it in another post too - I think Carlsson will be elite and by the same token I think Kasper will be a great 2C with an outside shot at 1C.

How many games does Bedard need to play to not be a magic bean according to that reasoning after all he already has 2 seasons under his belt.

 

[Frobbo]

The only player from this list doing remotely anything is currently stapled to Q Hughes right hip.

Dude, you missed the point. It isn't how good those players were/are, it is the significant draft capital he got for them. He deserves credit for the returns those trades brought BUT these were KH assets that he dealt. So no, the cupboard wasn't as empty as many here represent. 3 1sts, 4 2nds aren't small potatos and would jumpstart any rebuild. Incidentally KH also left him with a full complement of his own picks which isn't usually the case.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Kasper is not a second line center on the upper half of teams in the league. he may be playing second line for you all right now, but he isn’t over 90% of playoff teams second line center.

Moving goalposts. Even if that was true, being the 17th, 19th or 25th best #2C in the league still doesn't mean you're not a 2C.

I could say the same for people who hand wave away the poor job he did after his first picks in 2019-2021, with the most picks out of any teams over that span.

Nah I'd say we're evaluating as we go and keeping realistic expectations. Mazur looks like an NHLer, Buium has potential. You're writing players off too early. People did that a year ago with Johansson/Söderblom and I'd say they've been proven wrong this season.

View attachment 1012243

Top 3 ahead of who? This is second half of season? Don't forget about Wolf too.

I'd rank him ahead of Smith and Michkov in the 2nd half.

one you are banking on every one of your main prospects to hit, that just doesnt happen

I don't think anyone's doing that.

Seider for example is lagging behind similar aged peers such as Makar, Hughes, Heiskanen. People were talking about him being a Norris guy in his rookie season but it seems unlikely he ever sniffs that trophy.

No one would get Norris talk with that kind of deployment and being stapled to Ben Chiarot.

That said:

Heiskanen age 20-23 seasons: 272GP, 171pts, 0.63pts/GP, 24:48 TOI/GP
Seider age 20-23 seasons: 325GP, 174pts, 0.54pts/GP, 23:23 TOI/GP

Kasper for example is pretty much the same age as Wyatt Johnston. The chances of him being a better player are pretty low at this point even if it is a theoretical possibility.

Not sure I follow. Why does Kasper need to be = Johnston? The guy I actually like comparing Kasper to is Roope Hintz. It's a better parallel as a european center and one who wasn't setting scoring records as a 18-19 year old.

3. those aren't 2C numbers on a playoff team, his faceoff percentage is bad

~45% is actually great for a young/rookie center. Similar FO% to Stützle and around ~10% better than Jack Hughes.

 

[FMichael]

Pretty poor rebuild thus far, mostly from bad UFA and trade decisions. Drafting and development seems to be pretty solid but overall asset & cap management has been poor.

I thought he'd have turned things around in Detroit much faster, as a fan of a division rival I'm glad he's failed so far and hope he keeps building in the same direction lol

My #1 beef with Yzerman is his choice of coaching - in particular Lalonde...But yeah some of the UFA/trades are head scratchers too.

 

[FiveTacos]

Yes I totally agree that Carlsson will be elite. That’s my whole point. I just want consistent reasoning. If we are saying Detroits kids are all magic beans and will probably not get better because none of them have proven they are elite, then you also have to say guys like Carlsson and Fantilli and Celebrini and Bedard are also all magic beans. But I don’t think that myself. I said it in another post too - I think Carlsson will be elite and by the same token I think Kasper will be a great 2C with an outside shot at 1C.

I myself tend to play it very conservative. A player's floor usually becomes obvious quickly. But I don't like banking on ceiling until I first see it for at least a quarter season to a half season.

 

[RedHawkDown]

I myself tend to play it very conservative. A player's floor usually becomes obvious quickly. But I don't like banking on ceiling until I first see it for at least a quarter season to a half season.

I agree with you. Kasper has made it fairly clear this year that his floor is a 3C, not his likely outcome. His ceiling is unknown at this point.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Too much cherry picking examples by Yzerman truthers in this thread... your examples don't even make sense.

32 GM's out of 32 would trade Kasper for Johnson based on production and eye test. That was not the case Reinhart vs Ehlers or Seguin vs. Skinner.

I agree with what Czechboy said. If all of Detroit's young guns pan out like their fans want them too, then the Yzerplan will be a success. But a healthy dose of scepticism is needed here.

Yes right now Johnston is clearly better. That doesn’t mean Kasper can’t be or it’s “highly unlikely”. We have no idea right now.

You must not have been around back then if you think there weren’t a TON of people saying Skinner >>> Seguin after their rookie seasons. Same goes for the Reinhart bust talks

 

[RedHawkDown]

How many games does Bedard need to play to not be a magic bean according to that reasoning after all he already has 2 seasons under his belt.

How did you read my post and not get the point at all? I’m saying Bedard is not “magic beans”…

 

[nbwingsfan]

Johnston had 65 points and then 16 in 19 in the postseason last year. Kasper is not where he was a year ago.

That’s great. That doesn’t mean he he guaranteed to be a better player long term. We have no idea what the ceiling of either player is at this point.

 

[Adam da bomb]

How did you read my post and not get the point at all? I’m saying Bedard is not “magic beans”…

I understood that you were arguing with someone suggesting that he is magic beans instead of scrolling to the person who you were having the original conversation with I just responded to your post in agreement that I am not sure how anyone could see him as magic beans.
Also not sure how Kasper is being compared to Bedard or Celebrini.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Kasper becomes a 50 point 2C (behind Larkin as a 1C)
Ed just keeps doing what he's doing (big fan)
A Jo can stay in the NHL
Mazur, Buch, MBS and Danielsson all become NHL regulars.

If that's the worst you can do in a hyperbolic post about Wings fans it actually kind of sounds like we're a fairly reasonable bunch.

 

[Artaud]

That’s great. That doesn’t mean he he guaranteed to be a better player long term. We have no idea what the ceiling of either player is at this point.

Right, theoretically Kasper could end up better than Celebrini.

Of course we have an idea of the ceiling young players have, that's what scouting is all about... Just because you disagree with the consensus doesn't mean you can pretend like talent evaluation is voodoo and anything can happen.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Of course we have an idea of the ceiling young players have, that's what scouting is all about... Just because you disagree with the consensus doesn't mean you can pretend like talent evaluation is voodoo and anything can happen.

Looking at a player's total points isn't scouting or "talent evaluation" though. Talking about Kasper/Danielson/MBN lacking offensive upside like you do reeks of watching a hockeyDB page more than watching the player. You bring up his AHL numbers which is a great example of statwatchers being completely off on him.

 

[dekelikekocur]

Hold on, I can accept as a reasonable argument that Kasper has a recent pace that indicates that it's not unreasonable to expect a 50 point full season next year. Maybe wouldn't agree, but it's based on something tangible.

But then you should apply the same reasoning to Carlsson if you're comparing directly ... and he has 28 in his last 28. So instead of knocking him for "only" 44 points as if he's a disappointment, perhaps you should, for consistency, talk about his 82 point pace.

And I would suggest that if someone had taken him 11th they'd be absolutely giddy right now.

I think with Carlsson vs Kasper, the first half of the year Kasper was on the 4th line under Lalonde, I don't follow Carlsson so no idea if his deployment has changed. Kasper's change in deployment aligns with his change in production.

 

[Kiirin]

So what's the most liberal-conservative estimates on how long Yzerman has left?

Is there any chance he already gets canned? How many more years does he get?

with how red wings fans defend this man for being one of the most mediocre GM and building the most "no man's land" team in the league, i'd say he's here for another 10+ years.