Detroit, Montreal, Columbus: Pick 1 for real, 1 mirage

[FinlandPanther]

Columbus is the only team I see with a real future in these teams. Detroit is trash and Montreal is a wasteland.

 

[MXD]

The goal differential is also much better for Columbus, 10 better than Detroit and 12 better than Montreal. So even if you buy that it's inflated, the standings position is deflated relative to the goal differential.

There may also be some persistent shooting percentage advantages - guys like Werenski, Marchenko, KJ, and Fantilli can all pick a corner. And Chinakhov when he gets back. Then Voronkov who is one of the best net front scorers.

12 (more like -12) is about Cayden Primeau's XGSAA in about 10 games, and Primeau isn't on the team anymore and the other netminders are xGSAA is positive, and sustainably so since Montembault has been pretty much above the mark for the last 2 years and a half. There goes the 12 goals!

 

[stevo61]

12 (more like -12) is about Cayden Primeau's XGSAA in about 10 games, and Primeau isn't on the team anymore and the other netminders are xGSAA is positive, and sustainably so since Montembault has been pretty much above the mark for the last 2 years and a half. There goes the 12 goals!

Dobes start is probably the most sustainable

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Can I say I want to see the rest of the month and then I'll make the decision ?

The Habs have had a nice one that's a little longer than a fluke. Not like it's a nice 5 game streak.

Detroit definitely looked like shit, but watching them with McLellan or whatever, they look like waaaaaay better.

Columbus has the players everywhere. If they can get some goaltending they're going to be a threat. To further add, if Montreal and Columbus make the playoffs I'd honestly be torn between cheering for the Habs to win one in my life time that I actually remember and Columbus just to win. Columbus would petition the league to put Gaudreau's name on the cup (maybe both) and the league will allow it.

 

[MXD]

Dobes start is probably the most sustainable

Dobes only has 3 games and doesn't factor much in the current goal differential,.

Can I say I want to see the rest of the month and then I'll make the decision ?

The Habs have had a nice one that's a little longer than a fluke. Not like it's a nice 5 game streak.

Detroit definitely looked like shit, but watching them with McLellan or whatever, they look like waaaaaay better.

Columbus has the players everywhere. If they can get some goaltending they're going to be a threat. To further add, if Montreal and Columbus make the playoffs I'd honestly be torn between cheering for the Habs to win one in my life time that I actually remember and Columbus just to win. Columbus would petition the league to put Gaudreau's name on the cup (maybe both) and the league will allow it.

To a tee.

 

[Captain Mountain]

What if you think they're all for real or all of them are mirage?

Or if you think all of them aren't for real and aren't a mirage? I'm still skeptical any of them will make it, but I think none of them finish bottom 2 in the conference.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Voted Habs are real and Detroit mirage.

I don't necessarily see Detroit crashing and burning to bottom 2 in conference. However, I voted mirage because they do this every year...look to make a run to playoffs, and then in the end, crash and burn and miss. Same as Ottawa, and Buffalo.

This is the Habs first real shot at playoffs since their rebuild. So i'll give them the benefit of the doubt that maybe they see it through.
As for Columbus, I also give them benefit of the doubt above Detroit at this point.

But...Detroit DOESN'T do this every year. 2016-17 to 2022-23 they never went on any run that would make people think they're a playoff team. I don't think they were ever above .500 at any stretch during those years.

Last year they were close but ultimately faltered in clutch time in large part due to bad coaching and bad goaltending. This season they were ice cold in November and December, and that got the shitty coach that couldn't keep the team mentally prepared for the playoff push in 2023-24 fired.

If Detroit can continue at a .580+ win percentage under McLellan they'll be damn close to the last wildcard spot. It's a different team with him as head coach than we've seen any time in the last 3 or 4 years. I don't think people realize how much worse everyone looked under Lalonde.

 

[MVP of West Hollywd]

So far

For real Detroit 29, Montreal 16, Columbus 16
Mirage Montreal 32, Columbus 17, Detroit 12

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

they're all trash

 

[ewfwgfwahbger]

For real : Montreal, Columbus
Mirage: Kane

 

[stevo61]

Dobes only has 3 games and doesn't factor much in the current goal differential,.



To a tee.

It's actually wild Columbus also has a goalie equally as bad as Primeau was for the Canadiens. I think he'll get another look here shortly but eventually probably bite the bullet and get a vet backup or just play Greaves more. Has the potential to be an identical situation to Montreal weirdly enough

 

[MXD]

It's actually wild Columbus also has a goalie equally as bad as Primeau was for the Canadiens. I think he'll get another look here shortly but eventually probably bite the bullet and get a vet backup or just play Greaves more. Has the potential to be an identical situation to Montreal weirdly enough

Heh, the thing is, the difference between Elvis and Tarasov is nowhere near as big as between Monty and Primeau, and Tarasov do have better raw numbers than Primeau too, as unlikely as it sounds.

(Wow, I didn't know he was Vadim's son).

 

[Lshap]

It's not surprising that more people don't believe in Montreal. Unless you watch them regularly, you won't be as familiar with many of the young players and wouldn't expect them to be playing so well. But they are... and it's not a mirage. They're winning more games because they're becoming a better team than casual fans realize. They're the second youngest roster in the league and they're trending up.

I don't expect any of the three teams to stay as hot, but there's no concrete reason why any should fall apart, either.

 

[EveryDay]

It's not surprising that more people don't believe in Montreal. Unless you watch them regularly, you won't be as familiar with many of the young players and wouldn't expect them to be playing so well. But they are... and it's not a mirage. They're winning more games because they're becoming a better team than casual fans realize. They're the second youngest roster in the league and they're trending up.

I don't expect any of the three teams to stay as hot, but there's no concrete reason why any should fall apart, either.

It's hfboards of course they think Montreal is a mirage, you see familiar face on the main board in each of mtl thread trying to troll.

They're so insecure, starting by warrior and I hate the Flyers.

For the op, i think Columbus are for real and Detroit is the mirage, it happenings like 90% of the time with a coaching change.

 

[Doom Bot]

As a MTL fan I would not expect us to continue this level of play. We just don't have the pieces yet. Too much filler. Guys like Newhook, Gallagher, Dvorak, Savard just shouldn't be getting consistent minutes on a good team.

I don't think they're a mirage, more a vision of what is hopefully to come in the future but we will see. Definitely has some luck as well. Demidov and Fowler are the X factor for the future IMO.

I don't think either of the other 2 has separated themselves from the pack in terms of supplanting the top 3 in either division, I think it's anyone's game to sneak in to the wild card spots, including PIT, OTT, etc.

Walman may have been what propelled Detroit to the next level this season.

 

[Fatass]

Detroit, Montreal, Ottawa, Boston. One (or two) of these clubs will make the playoffs. Columbus won’t.

 

[majormajor]

It's not surprising that more people don't believe in Montreal. Unless you watch them regularly, you won't be as familiar with many of the young players and wouldn't expect them to be playing so well. But they are... and it's not a mirage. They're winning more games because they're becoming a better team than casual fans realize. They're the second youngest roster in the league and they're trending up.

From my outside view, the younger guys who appear to be stepping up are just Hutson and Guhle. And some good depth scoring from Heineman. Slaf is worse, Caufield has long been this good at scoring goals, Dach is maybe back up to the level he was last year (not very good). The young players don't explain enough.

 

[Lshap]

From my outside view, the younger guys who appear to be stepping up are just Hutson and Guhle. And some good depth scoring from Heineman. Slaf is worse, Caufield has long been this good at scoring goals, Dach is maybe back up to the level he was last year (not very good). The young players don't explain enough.

Hutson, Guhle, Heineman, Caufield, Suzuki – yes, they're the obvious standouts, along with Patrik Laine. But you probably haven't noticed the less obvious improvement of the small things – better offensive zone control, much better defence, fewer giveaways and mistakes. Habs are winning because their young roster (2nd youngest in the league) is learning to play smarter and much more efficiently. Habs' top-end players are at least as good as anyone on Detroit, Columbus or Ottawa, but their depth players may be their biggest advantage.

Disagree with your take on Dach. He was an extremely good top-6 C pre-injury. He's slowly getting back there. I think the last two months will give us a fair idea of who this guy really is. Slafkovsky looked bad for awhile; no idea what was going on. He looked much better the last game, so let's remember the kid's only 20 and still figuring out his role. Both players were key pieces to the Habs' rebuild. As they improve, the team improves.

 

[SteelCityCannon]

As far as CBJ goes, I'm convinced our offense is legit. D and goaltending are major questions marks. Detroit is a tough one. We always see teams play up with a new coach. Are they gonna keep that up? No idea about Montreal. Every time we play them I'm more impressed with the lesser known players.

In short, I have no idea.

 

[HabzSauce]

I really don't think any are a mirage. They all seemed to have turned a corner

Columbus: great offense, terrible defense/goaltending, no reason to think their offense is a mirage

Detroit: playing great under a coaching change, have also had a very easy schedule thus far, so could just be mediocre team on a heater regardless

Montreal: mediocre all around, likely just overachieving based on record

I think of the three, Columbus is the most believavly average and Montreal is the worst.

Man you'd think so based on how they looked first 2 months, but not the case since, they are playing good hockey finally. Hope this is for good lol

 

[majormajor]

Hutson, Guhle, Heineman, Caufield, Suzuki – yes, they're the obvious standouts, along with Patrik Laine. But you probably haven't noticed the less obvious improvement of the small things – better offensive zone control, much better defence, fewer giveaways and mistakes. Habs are winning because their young roster (2nd youngest in the league) is learning to play smarter and much more efficiently. Habs' top-end players are at least as good as anyone on Detroit, Columbus or Ottawa, but their depth players may be their biggest advantage.

That all makes sense. They had room to improve as a team in playing team defense, not just about young talent emerging.

Disagree with your take on Dach. He was an extremely good top-6 C pre-injury. He's slowly getting back there. I think the last two months will give us a fair idea of who this guy really is. Slafkovsky looked bad for awhile; no idea what was going on. He looked much better the last game, so let's remember the kid's only 20 and still figuring out his role. Both players were key pieces to the Habs' rebuild. As they improve, the team improves.

Dach has shown better glimmers I'm sure. And Slaf has plenty of time. I'm not doubting that they have a future, but it's not a part of what's happening now. The Habs are winning despite them.