Morgs
#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
I won't even pretend I watch Leaf games and scout Travis Dermott specifically. Hard to take anyone serious claiming Carlo isn't a top-4 D though. I don't even believe his overall upside is anything more than a quality #3 D that can play a shutdown role. He's almost that guy right now. He just needs to fill out physically and up the consistency. Still rail thin and is adapting to being the defensive anchor with a risk taker like Torey Krug (as opposed to Chara).
I know some players hit the ground running and fizzle out, but I don't know of too many defenseman who break into the league at the age of 19, average 20+ minutes a game over the course of the first 140 in a top-4 capacity on a great defensive team and turn into solid Brayden McNabb type players. It's probably happened before. What's more probable is he's a long time top-4 D.
So like I said in my first post, last season he was okay as a 20 year old playing top-comp relative to expectations. If you were comparing him to a regular guy in those minutes you'd say "he was above his head".
IMO that meant he was probably better suited to play on the 2nd pairing with more sheltered zone starts. Problem is that's exactly what's happened this season, and he's actually put up almost the exact same numbers. That to me is an issue as he has not shown the ability to be drive the play in a positive, or even a net neutral way. He's had a negative impact on both shot shares, and on actual goals against.
I believe the hope should be that one day he can be a successful Top-4 defenseman, but he's probably better suited to be playing on the bottom-pairing right now, and dominating in a Brayden McNabb type way to get better acclimated to the NHL. No need to rush the guy, as not everyone comes into the league as a 20 year old like McAvoy did.