I'm suggesting that it's worth considering that over an 8 year period we may find ourselves looking for around 8 million for Chabot, Brown, Duchene, Stone, etc... I don't want to start an argument about not signing EK, rather it's worth considering how much a massive long term contract could handicap us.
Chicago is a cautionary tale.
EK at 10 million or so is a risk I think we take.
I certainly understand your point of view then.
I’d raise a few thoughts and would like to hear your comments (all of this is IMO):
1) Given the turmoil surrounding the team this season and the doubts raised about the owner’s commitment to winning (whether warranted or not it is a public perception) it is more risky to not at least attempt to sign EK to a long term deal at this point in our franchise history than it is to let him walk. Not doing so might make us an unattractive option going forward.
2) While earmarking a huge amount of cap in one player is a risk, it also offers the security of locking down one of the best in the league. It’s an absolute joke that EK hasn’t gotten more consideration for the Hart trophy in his career. I’d argue no other skater is as impactful as he is.
If the market has set Subban’s value at 9, and Doughty is expecting over 10. Karlsson can expect the same. So in other words I don’t think paying top value for a top asset is a handicap, what is a handicap is paying top value for middling assets (Phaneuf, Ryan, Toews, Seabrook). Given Karlsson’s track record I’m not too worried about this. Even if his skating eventually drops off, I’m confident he can continue to be one of the most productive defensemen offensively and he proved last year that he can be very effective in his own end even without mobility.
3) A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. While I appreciate the idea of setting aside money to keep guys like Stone, Duchene, and Chabot, none of these guys have the potential to be as impactful as Karlsson.
4) Finally, Chicago’s cautionary tale is relevant but so is Ottawa’s. I remember having discussions eerily similar to this one on HF 12 years ago.
We had another defenseman with unique abilities in the NHL who was also coming off an injury. We offered him a decent deal in order to have money set aside for guys like Redden and Phillips. He signed what was then a massive deal in Boston and not only went on to earn every penny but win a Norris, a cup and have a HOF career. Redden was off the team before the end of Chara’s first contract in Boston and out of the league before the beginning of his renewal.
People couldn’t wrap their minds around a different guy like Chara being consistently at the top of the league and were scared off by the « new nhl ». It’s similar with Karlsson, we have a guy who is very non traditional and many have difficulty seeing him maintaining his excellence (just like they had difficulty seeing him achieving excellence and being more than a « puck mover »). Karlsson, like Chara, has proven people wrong his entire career and will show defensemen can play a different way and win.
When you have this kind of real superstar, you do what you have to do to sign him and give him the tools to win.