Dean Lombardi Last Offseason - A Tale Of Numbers

[Reclamation Project]

With all this talk about Dean not addressing this roster in the off season I crunched some numbers. Let's take a look at the hand he was dealt. It was quite favorable...

Offense: the Kings offense last year finished the season ranked tenth with 2.73 G/G. Their power play was also ranked tenth with nearly a 20 percent success rate (19.9). Both extremely respectable numbers and both a far cry from the current numbers of 2.25 G/G (29th in the NHL) and a power play that has a putrid success rate of 13.9 (also 29th in the NHL).

Defense: the Kings defense last year finished the season ranked seventh with 2.38 GA/G. The Kings defense this season is currently the best in the entire NHL with 2.07 GA/G.

Goaltending - the Kings currently lead the NHL in goalie shutouts with nine; Jonathan Quick, Ben Scrivens, and Martin Jones each have three. Never the problem with LA and I won't even get into it as I could care a less. Jonathan Quick is god.

Let's now compare both seasons against each other in terms of each player's production. These are strictly the big dogs...

I projected last year's number for an 82 schedule.

Player - On Pace For/Last Season


The upper tier -

Anze Kopitar - 62/73
Dustin Brown - 23/52
Mike Richards - 50/54
Jeff Carter - 52/56
Justin Williams - 42/56
Jarret Stoll - 27/30
Matt Frattin - 10/43
Dwight King - 33/17

Drew Doughty - 40/37
Slava Voynov - 30/43

Two of the big dogs are outperforming their performance from last year and those two are Drew Doughty and Dwight King.

The lower tier -

Jordan Nolan - 14/11
Trevor Lewis - 8/24
Kyle Clifford - 8/24
Colin Fraser - 4/18

Jake Muzzin - 23/29

Jordan Nolan is solidifying himself as one of better bottom six players we'll have for many years.

So with the exception of Dwight King, Drew Doughty, and Jordan Nolan, everyone's performance is down. And some aren't even close. My gut said it, but I crunched the numbers, and sure enough they are.

So I ask everyone this, if you're Dean Lombardi and you're coming off a great season in which you were a top 10 team across the board and went all the way to the Western Conference Final, what would you have done? It's so easy to say he was complacent, but the numbers don't lie. This was a very good team that had very little issues.

Click to read more...

 

[Herby]

The bottom six did not score a single even strength goal in the entire 2013 playoffs (3 rounds, 18 games)

Everyone knew the Kings were going to need to add skill to the lineup and to ice three lines capable of scoring to compete with teams like Chicago. Dean did nothing to improve the bottom six, the Kings only real move was letting Richardson walk and trading for Carcillo, which amazingly made the bottom six even less skilled than it was before.

He brought in Frattin to replace Penner as the #2 lw, he has been a total flop and the Kings have been forced to move up the only bottom six who was contributing (King) to the 2nd line, further weakening the already pathetic bottom six.

I'll give him a pass for the disasters right now with Brown and Richards, no one could have seen this coming, but it's on him to evaluate the team going forward, and those are two huge question marks that DL needs to look at, if he makes the wrong choice the Kings are in big trouble.

Dean definitely deserves some blame here, in particular the failure to improve the bottom six, the Frattin acquisition and the Stoll and RR extensions which have hurt his cap flexibility to add to the big holes on the roster.

This is a big offseason for Dean, he always said how his goal was to be competitive every year and not be a one and done team, right now they appear to be heading down that path.

 

[apadilla]

thanksfully i haven't been watching the team closely, but just looking at the numbers posted above, yes, brownie is a disaster, as are fratten, trevor and kyle, but richards? looking at the numbers, i'd say richards has been pulling his weight. those are decent numbers; so who has he been centering? this will say a lot too.

 

[Reclamation Project]

thanksfully i haven't been watching the team closely, but just looking at the numbers posted above, yes, brownie is a disaster, as are fratten, trevor and kyle, but richards? looking at the numbers, i'd say richards has been pulling his weight. those are decent numbers; so who has he been centering? this will say a lot too.

No one special. His defensive game has been pretty mediocre, but give him steady and capable line mates, and he would perform better.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

Herby nailed my opinion on the subject

 

[Muzzinga]

what i take from that op is Dwight King GOAT

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

All hail jeff carter and dwight king!

I was worried Carter would be one whose numbers suffered from being here but he's proved what a terrific player he is. He's almost immune to our offensive black hole. can you imagine this team sans carter?!?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Herby nailed my opinion on the subject

Me too almost in full, minus one detail that I'm a weirdo over, the RR contract. I think it was necessary and he's been actually good. Don't blame anyone that disagrees with me really, but I think it's a good contract for a need.

 

[Face Wash]

I like your posts in general, but this is an over simplification. You're talking about points, which is ok, but you're not speaking to goals specifically and you're not talking about PP specifically which has collapsed (in no small part to Brown's complete vanishing act this season with the man advantage) and as far as last year to this year's team...There's no way you lose in the playoffs, in any round frankly, and virtually stand pat, especially when you're a team that's built for the playoffs.

If the playoffs last season showed Lombardi ANYTHING, it's that he lacked scoring depth. Of course he should have already known that considering the Kings go through this kinda slump every season and it's due to a lack of secondary scoring. It wouldn't have taken a crystal ball to have seem this...Just a little videotape work and some honest assessing of your talent without personal bias especially in the post-season.

Look, I don't like Sutter as a coach personally, but I can understand why Dean is loyal to him. He's already fired one coach he liked a lot over the players tuning him out, and if you remember how mad he was at the players after he dismissed TM, you probably know that he's not going to fire this one before he at least makes SOME roster adjustments first. And aside from the fact that Sutter won a cup (which holds no weight as far as I'm concerned but I'm sure it does for Deano) add to the fact that a GM generally only gets to hire and fire so many coaches until he himself is on the chopping block, I get why DL isn't likely to fire Sutter. But Lombardi is being far to loyal to these players, some of which either belong in Manchester or on another team.

Regular season point comparisons don't tell the whole story unfortunately. You have to analyze the playoff performances from year-to-year to make your decisions. Dean just didn't see the lack of secondary scoring as an issue, and if he did, he didn't address it.

 

[Winger23]

I will preface this post saying im by far not that familiar with the guys down on the farm, and just thinking random thoughts.

What is the point in having a deep prospect pool right now? I mean, the kings are in a win now mode for the next 3 or so years. Would it not be worth it to trade the talent we have and draft picks to upgrade the current roster for players? I mean, the kids now that are good won't be seeing anytime with the club during this period, and towards the end of the window is when you can then become sellers to restock?

Again just random thoughts, but if you can trade for players that will be with the club for 3 years going forward, who cares whats going on in Manchester for a few years?

flame me for this post, just a wondering "why" type post. I'm far from a player management pro, just wondering why it's so important.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

I will preface this post saying im by far not that familiar with the guys down on the farm, and just thinking random thoughts.

What is the point in having a deep prospect pool right now? I mean, the kings are in a win now mode for the next 3 or so years. Would it not be worth it to trade the talent we have and draft picks to upgrade the current roster for players? I mean, the kids now that are good won't be seeing anytime with the club during this period, and towards the end of the window is when you can then become sellers to restock?

Again just random thoughts, but if you can trade for players that will be with the club for 3 years going forward, who cares whats going on in Manchester for a few years?

flame me for this post, just a wondering "why" type post. I'm far from a player management pro, just wondering why it's so important.

The Kings have too many players on big money contracts, and need skilled youngsters on entry level contracts to help fill out the lineup. The other problem is almost every player we are rumored to be interested in is either a soon to be UFA (Moulson, Ott, Cammy, etc.) or VASTLY overpaid (Gagner)

 

[Herby]

Dean just didn't see the lack of secondary scoring as an issue, and if he did, he didn't address it.

This is what is really concerning to me, they saw a team like Chicago handle them pretty well with skill and balanced scoring and instead of trying to atleast improve the secondary and bottom six scoring he returned the status quo, which tells me that Dean had no issue with how the bottom six played in the playoffs, and the way the team is set-up right now had further re-enforced that thought. The Kings think the way to win is to outgrind skilled teams.

I also liked how you mentioned evaluating players, coaches, managers on a year to year basis. When you cling to a past success and don't try and build on it you end up like Jay Feaster, Mike Shanahan and Bill Stoneman. I do like Sutter and appreciate what he did in 2012, but that shouldn't mask how the team and system looks right now, same thing with Dean. DL deserves a ton of credit for 2012, but a lot can happen in a couple of years, and I am personally really scared of what this teams cap situation could be like for the next 5+ years because of some of these deals DL either signed or traded for.

 

[bral]

This is a big offseason for Dean, he always said how his goal was to be competitive every year and not be a one and done team, right now they appear to be heading down that path.

Dean did what he could, the lockout changed things. There is an interview where DL talks about how the new cap basically screwed his model and they had to start from scratch.

How is there any evidence that we will not be a successful team in this years or next years playoffs?

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

This is what is really concerning to me, they saw a team like Chicago handle them pretty well with skill and balanced scoring and instead of trying to atleast improve the secondary and bottom six scoring he returned the status quo, which tells me that Dean had no issue with how the bottom six played in the playoffs, and the way the team is set-up right now had further re-enforced that thought. The Kings think the way to win is to outgrind skilled teams.

John Hoven has said numerous times that the feeling within the organization is that if the Kings had Mitchell in the playoffs, they beat Chicago. Personally, I think that's crazy talk

 

[Reclamation Project]

All hail jeff carter and dwight king!

I was worried Carter would be one whose numbers suffered from being here but he's proved what a terrific player he is. He's almost immune to our offensive black hole. can you imagine this team sans carter?!?

Or Jonathan Quick.

I like your posts in general, but this is an over simplification. You're talking about points, which is ok, but you're not speaking to goals specifically and you're not talking about PP specifically which has collapsed (in no small part to Brown's complete vanishing act this season with the man advantage) and as far as last year to this year's team...There's no way you lose in the playoffs, in any round frankly, and virtually stand pat, especially when you're a team that's built for the playoffs.

If the playoffs last season showed Lombardi ANYTHING, it's that he lacked scoring depth. Of course he should have already known that considering the Kings go through this kinda slump every season and it's due to a lack of secondary scoring. It wouldn't have taken a crystal ball to have seem this...Just a little videotape work and some honest assessing of your talent without personal bias especially in the post-season.

Look, I don't like Sutter as a coach personally, but I can understand why Dean is loyal to him. He's already fired one coach he liked a lot over the players tuning him out, and if you remember how mad he was at the players after he dismissed TM, you probably know that he's not going to fire this one before he at least makes SOME roster adjustments first. And aside from the fact that Sutter won a cup (which holds no weight as far as I'm concerned but I'm sure it does for Deano) add to the fact that a GM generally only gets to hire and fire so many coaches until he himself is on the chopping block, I get why DL isn't likely to fire Sutter. But Lombardi is being far to loyal to these players, some of which either belong in Manchester or on another team.

Regular season point comparisons don't tell the whole story unfortunately. You have to analyze the playoff performances from year-to-year to make your decisions. Dean just didn't see the lack of secondary scoring as an issue, and if he did, he didn't address it.

I agree with everything you said. Just thought the correlation in points (I didn't want to spend all evening doing goals too ) was very telling of the team's current state. Add three or four points to each player and it would go a real long way.

This is what is really concerning to me, they saw a team like Chicago handle them pretty well with skill and balanced scoring and instead of trying to atleast improve the secondary and bottom six scoring he returned the status quo, which tells me that Dean had no issue with how the bottom six played in the playoffs, and the way the team is set-up right now had further re-enforced that thought. The Kings think the way to win is to outgrind skilled teams.

I also liked how you mentioned evaluating players, coaches, managers on a year to year basis. When you cling to a past success and don't try and build on it you end up like Jay Feaster, Mike Shanahan and Bill Stoneman. I do like Sutter and appreciate what he did in 2012, but that shouldn't mask how the team and system looks right now, same thing with Dean. DL deserves a ton of credit for 2012, but a lot can happen in a couple of years, and I am personally really scared of what this teams cap situation could be like for the next 5+ years because of some of these deals DL either signed or traded for.

We all knew going into this season that this offseason was going to be a really interesting one. The defense needs to be retooled big time. The way I see it is Mitchell will retire, Greene will get paid by someone else, and that leaves a couple holes. Both Doughty and Voynov need partners and I would trade Muzzin. I'm a huge fan of Alec so he stays on the third pairing and could work his way up. I agree with your main point Herby, I really do. The bottom six needs to be retooled also. Stoll needs to be traded and some young, nasty players need to be brought in. Nolan is the real deal and I'd build that fourth line around him.

One thing I disagree on is trading Mike Richards, at least right now. I've made it pretty obvious how much I like him, but I'm a bigger fan of winning and if moving him brought in better, more balanced pieces, I'd do it without hesitating.The top six needs a left winger. I would try Richards with steady, stable, and productive wingers before moving him.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

John Hoven has said numerous times that the feeling within the organization is that if the Kings had Mitchell in the playoffs, they beat Chicago. Personally, I think that's crazy talk

It really is. The struggling offense and powerplay wasn't going to survive against the Hawks.

 

[Reclamation Project]

John Hoven has said numerous times that the feeling within the organization is that if the Kings had Mitchell in the playoffs, they beat Chicago. Personally, I think that's crazy talk

I could see it being a longer, more interesting series with him and a healthy Richards.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I have no delusions of winning that series, but it's a lot more interesting with Mitchell, presumably we'd have more health all around too, which would have gone a long way. Chicago skated circles around us anyway, but that was enhanced by our beatings.

 

[bral]

^ Yes but if the Hawks were healthy in 2012 we might still be Cupless. The Hawks are the best team in the league, if they are the only measuring stick for us we're doing "ok".

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

^ Yes but if the Hawks were healthy in 2012 we might still be Cupless. The Hawks are the best team in the league, if they are the only measuring stick for us we're doing "ok".

Of course. Just responding to the point that Mitchell was the margin between victory and defeat. Like the others, I disagree, but I also think we can't measure where we really would have stood without our health. Though this year thus far I think they've answered to that

 

[Reclamation Project]

I don't care what anyone says, Chicago is by far the best team in the NHL. So balanced and skilled it's terrifying.

 

[bral]

Of course. Just responding to the point that Mitchell was the margin between victory and defeat. Like the others, I disagree, but I also think we can't measure where we really would have stood without our health. Though this year thus far I think they've answered to that

My bad, that was for the post above yours.

And I agree with most here BTW, we need help. We're not good enough as is to win the Cup this year. I just don't believe DL to be the idle/inactive GM that others see him to be. Yes he's cautious and conservitive but he's working on a solution to our problems I believe.

 

[DocWest]

If we were healthy, maybe we push the Hawks series to 7. But that was their year and I don't see how we could have gotten passed them. Gotta respect how they're built and compete on a consistent basis. Great city and fans too.

 

[Reclamation Project]

My bad, that was for the post above yours.

No way do I think we win it, just make it more interesting.

 

[bral]

I don't care what anyone says, Chicago is by far the best team in the NHL. So balanced and skilled it's terrifying.

They are so lucky with that BS Hossa deal. In a few years when they have to resign Toews/Kane the rest of the West will catch up but until then, they're the team to beat imo.


Anyways lets keep the faith guys, and remember our scoring woes of 2011-12.