What's most interesting is trying to figure out the underlying or common factors between success cases and failures. I really hope it isn't as mystical as "the successful prospect worked harder" and "the bust didn't work hard enough". I hope there are more qualities and metrics and stats that can help make the distinction and help improve our understanding of this process -- even though it'll never be complete or perfect.
What I mean is, for example, skating. In the past you could say a prospect's skating would hold him back and be more right than wrong. By the early-2010s it was clear that skating was becoming over-emphasized in commentary spaces and the professionals and young players had by then already improved overall skating abilities a ton. Now the NHL doesn't have many "poor" skaters left and the level is higher than ever before. What is the next distinct quality that can flag a future NHLer and a future bust?
I don't agree that skating became over-emphasized, I think it's still extremely important, as skating, speed or size are often the difference between a bottom liner/tweener NHL vs AHLer.
I do struggle with skating mechanics as I was a terrible skater as I didn't start until I was 12 or so, I find it's easier to evaluate things you are good at vs the things you aren't. Take Mailloux as an example, some think it's his skating that holds him back but I don't see that as his main problem, I see someone that makes very poor decisions in his own end, much like Barron but I also see someone that at times looks lazy and gives up on plays. So am I wrong, is it his skating that holds him back? We'll see when he's back in the NHL again, and it's not like you can't improve on skating as look at DD in in the Q and then look at him years later in the NHL.
As for why players bust I think there are tons of reasons, I feel as hockey is much more mental then many like to agree and that confidence is a major factor and for SOME, when you lose it, it can be very hard to get back. I would so often complain when MB would call up a 20 year old from the AHL after they just started putting together say 4-5 good to really good games only to see them end up on the 4th line, then benched for any mistake, then press box for a week, then back to the AHL where all the sudden they look like shit. To me that's what happens when you mess with confidence. You have a rookie pro that is starting to get a feel for the league and then you put them in the deepest part of the pool and if they make even a small mistake it's press box time and the fact that they struggle upon return to the AHL at least logically one can assume that confidence is playing some part.
There are so many things that can go wrong, which is why I don't trust anyone that says at draft day or a year or two later, so and so is a bust. Development for the non high end stars is often a long process of ups and downs over several years. Fans react so emotionally to the highs and lows, if Demidov came over today and scored a hattrick he would be loved like a god and if Reinbacher struggles in the NHL he will get the same treatment Slaf got around here in his rookie year or KK got in his threads. It's like there's no middle ground, no well maybe he just needs more time and next year he will take a leap forward in his progression. So many are so quick to throw out the bust word and so many the day they are drafted high refuse to hear any bad things said.
