Player Discussion David Pastrnak VI

[Fenway]

Continued from

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2199815&page=40

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[DKH]

I would seriously trade him for Seguin

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

 

[Gordoff]

I would seriously trade him for Seguin

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

I don't know, there's something wrong with that idea just can't put my finger on it?

 

[riverhawkey91]

are you saying that the common discussion was... ok last year a 3rd line rightwing got 2.63% of the cap and now the cap went up 2.55% so this year a 3rd line rightwing gets 2.63% which means we got to pay an extra 61 thousand dollars???

because I promise you that never happened

instead... what happened is guys said... ok the cap has gone up 2 million dollars... I need an extra 250 thousand more than what I would have got before

REAL DOLLARS... that's the discussion point. no one has ever been saying I need my 4.68% of the cap

So that really boils this argument down. You and I disagree entirely there -- I think that's EXACTLY what has happened, just not on quite as small of a scale as you're referring to there. I think you're taking it too literally...it's much more of a range type of reference than an exact one.

I don't think any player/agent has ever walked into a meeting and said "oh the cap went up, I need (a random) $X amount more"...they'd get laughed at because that $X is meaningless and there's nothing supporting it. There has to be context. I'm really surprised to see you think they just make up a number instead of actually calculating it...in a cap world, and in 2017, that would be a disaster.

I gave you plenty of examples last night of where cap percentage was applicable, but here's another one...how do you think they figured out how high to go on a bunch of these contracts? Do you think they just randomly pulled $12.5M out of nowhere for McDavid? How about the $10.5M for Toews/Kane...what other contracts would lead them to that? In the end it comes down to the percentage. They figured out what Crosby's first deal would be worth today and used that as a base for McDavid. I'd bet Chicago did something with Crosby/Ovechkin to figure out how high was too high for Toews/Kane. And I guarantee you in Pastrnak's discussions they're picking players with similar progression from years past and say "okay, they got paid this much then...we believe that means this much now."

On and obviously the Bruins want to get Pastrnak in at around 6...why wouldn't they? They're going to argue that Pastrnak isn't our best wing and isn't better than Bergeron, so he shouldn't be paid as much as them...it's their job to do that. The problem for them is there is an entire NHL's worth of deals out there (including the one they themselves gave to Seguin when he was here) that proves he's worth more than that. Hell I think it's just good to hear Pastrnak's camp is only looking for "closer to $7M" rather than over 7...he's got the qualifications for it.

 

[JEM28]

If he gets anything over $6M he will be in the top 7 or 8 RW in the league, salary wise. Loui, Okposo and Eberle all at $6M. Pasta is better.

Not sure I would trade him for Seguin, as Seguin is a FA after the next 2 yrs, IIRC.

 

[gvkmedia]

I would seriously trade him for Seguin

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

He will make more money for 2 years... and then?
I would just as soon keep him. Put him with the same 2 guys and you still have the best line in hockey.

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

]I would seriously trade him for Seguin [/B]

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

Highly doubt it. I wouldn't if I was them. They know what Sequin is, Pasta ? Small sample is risky

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I would seriously trade him for Seguin

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

Its really really hard for me to find a trade for pastrnak that makes sense for both teams... honestly i dont feel he is a contract problem. I think hes waiting for draisailt. I wont blame him for that

If we do trade him i want the best young lhs dman back we can get... the guy im thinking is provolov from philly.

I also want wayne simmons...

It would cost more than just pastrnak but if i could get simmons and provolov id pay

As for seguin... i dont think hed be happy with management here. Unhappy players usually are a problem even when they are talented. Im glad hes found success in dallas but hes one ex bruin i wouldnt think would workout coming back

 

[riverhawkey91]

I would seriously trade him for Seguin

Would Dallas do this ?

Pastrnak going to make more than Seguin

Marchand-Bergeron- Seguin

Has chemistry and would be best line in the game

I'm not sure either team would.

Dallas likely doesn't because he's their #1C...and looking at his stats, I don't think they'd be comfortable bumping Spezza up to 1C, even if Benn - Spezza - Pastrnak would be filthy.

Boston probably doesn't because Pastrnak is the better wing and for better or worse that's what they need right now. Plus all of the history obviously. It's still too bad in hindsight...Pastrnak and Seguin would have been awesome together for 10+ years.

 

[ickie*]

trade his ass!

 

[KrejciMVP]

Man we really need to hire a hockey Tsar who can get these important deals done. Can't just trade this kid and say "oh well"

Maybe it's just in the franchises personality to make bad moves. Dk

 

[vjcsmoke]

Bottom line -- they need to get Pastrnak signed.

The question is the term and the money.

Is he going to get closer to

Arvidsson money -- 7/29.75m

or closer to

Zaitsev 7/31.5

or closer to

Galchenyuk 3/14.7

If the Bruins could sign him in the region of 7/35, I'd call it a huge success.

 

[Midship]

Bottom line -- they need to get Pastrnak signed.

The question is the term and the money.

Is he going to get closer to

Arvidsson money -- 7/29.75m

or closer to

Zaitsev 7/31.5

or closer to

Galchenyuk 3/14.7

If the Bruins could sign him in the region of 7/35, I'd call it a huge success.

Zero chance they get him at an AAV of $5M, let alone for 7 years. If he signs for less than $6.5M per, I'll be pretty shocked. Think we're looking at 6 years ~$42M. I would love an 8 year deal if Don can pull it off

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

So that really boils this argument down. You and I disagree entirely there -- I think that's EXACTLY what has happened, just not on quite as small of a scale as you're referring to there. I think you're taking it too literally...it's much more of a range type of reference than an exact one.

I don't think any player/agent has ever walked into a meeting and said "oh the cap went up, I need (a random) $X amount more"...they'd get laughed at because that $X is meaningless and there's nothing supporting it. There has to be context. I'm really surprised to see you think they just make up a number instead of actually calculating it...in a cap world, and in 2017, that would be a disaster.

I gave you plenty of examples last night of where cap percentage was applicable, but here's another one...how do you think they figured out how high to go on a bunch of these contracts? Do you think they just randomly pulled $12.5M out of nowhere for McDavid? How about the $10.5M for Toews/Kane...what other contracts would lead them to that? In the end it comes down to the percentage. They figured out what Crosby's first deal would be worth today and used that as a base for McDavid. I'd bet Chicago did something with Crosby/Ovechkin to figure out how high was too high for Toews/Kane. And I guarantee you in Pastrnak's discussions they're picking players with similar progression from years past and say "okay, they got paid this much then...we believe that means this much now."

On and obviously the Bruins want to get Pastrnak in at around 6...why wouldn't they? They're going to argue that Pastrnak isn't our best wing and isn't better than Bergeron, so he shouldn't be paid as much as them...it's their job to do that. The problem for them is there is an entire NHL's worth of deals out there (including the one they themselves gave to Seguin when he was here) that proves he's worth more than that. Hell I think it's just good to hear Pastrnak's camp is only looking for "closer to $7M" rather than over 7...he's got the qualifications for it.

Crosby got his 8.7 cause of his birth year... picked at random basically... and then 5 years later resigned for same dollars drspite cap going up... nothing at all to do with %
Malkin got his 8.7 cause crosby got the same... nothing at all to do with %

As for ovechkin... he got more... doubt he was worried about % either... just wanted more

Mcdavids deal by happenchance is close to crosbys % so they use that narrative. Try to save face on being wrong about their 13 mill forecast leading up to the signing but honestly mcdavids contract adds up to 100 mill... a nice round number

Whats the odds mcdavid wanted the same % as crosby (which isnt even true and totally ignores ovechkins contract) or mcdavid said lets just round it off to an even 100 million?

As for your example of kane and toews whats the odds they got out their calculator and said ivechkin got 10.2% in 2012 but only 9.8% in 2014 and 9.5% in 2016 so carry the 1 and divide by a common denominator... = 10.5 mill? Or might they just have said we are the 2 best players on the best team... give us more than anyone else gets?

Hockey contracts have been handed out for 100 years and its pretty basic stuff ever since contracts were made public. You find comparables and try to get paid what they do... unless you are better or your team is desperate in which case you get a raise.

When mistakes are made the market moves... quite often in arbitration. Offer sheets almost always cause inflation... buying ufa years is inflationary...

And now mcdavid is poised to be inflationary too

The numbers are there for any of us to research. I enjoy looking at the numbers and i find the past is a good predictor of the future.

Its only when i predict teams are coming to their sences on 3rd liners that im usuallu out to lunch on contracts... deals for guys like tatar and neidereiter do baffle me. Not because it is above market but because these are the guys that end up buyouts

I keep thinging teams will learn ftom past buyouts but they never do

 

[riverhawkey91]

How's this for negotiation ammunition for Pastrnak's camp?

Since the turn of the century, only 7 players total chosen outside of the top 5 in any draft class have scored either 30G or 70 pts in any of their first 3 post-draft seasons. 4 of them hit one OR the other:

Stastny (#44 in '05) - 2nd year (06/07) - 28G/78pts in 82GP
Little (#12 in '06) - 3rd year (08/09) - 31G/51pts in 79GP
Monahan (#6 in '13) - 2nd year (14/15) - 31G/62pts in 81GP
Arvidsson (#112 in '14) - 3rd year (16/17) - 31G/61pts in 80GP

while only 3 players scored 30G AND 70 pts within those 3 years:

Bergeron (#45 in '03) - 3rd year (05/06) - 31G/73pts in 81GP
Kopitar (#11 in '05) - 3rd year (07/08) - 32G/77pts in 82GP
Pastrnak (#22 in '14) - 3rd year (16/17) - 34G/70pts in 75GP

Some will call it a fluke or just a really good year, but it's definitely not something that happens very often.

Comparatively, Bergeron got a 5yr/$4.75M AAV deal coming off his ELC (10.8% cap hit) while Kopitar got a 7yr/$6.8M AAV deal coming off his (11.99% cap hit). Obviously both were more proven when they signed their deals, but I really think those expecting Pastrnak to take a $6M long term deal (8% cap hit) are grossly underestimating what he's worth.

 

[ickie*]

from boston: pastrnak, spooner

from colorado: duchene, johnson

U likey??

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

from boston: pastrnak, spooner

from colorado: duchene, johnson

U likey??

Me no likey

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

How's this for negotiation ammunition for Pastrnak's camp?

Since the turn of the century, only 7 players total chosen outside of the top 5 in any draft class have scored either 30G or 70 pts in any of their first 3 post-draft seasons. 4 of them hit one OR the other:

Stastny (#44 in '05) - 2nd year (06/07) - 28G/78pts in 82GP
Little (#12 in '06) - 3rd year (08/09) - 31G/51pts in 79GP
Monahan (#6 in '13) - 2nd year (14/15) - 31G/62pts in 81GP
Arvidsson (#112 in '14) - 3rd year (16/17) - 31G/61pts in 80GP

while only 3 players scored 30G AND 70 pts within those 3 years:

Bergeron (#45 in '03) - 3rd year (05/06) - 31G/73pts in 81GP
Kopitar (#11 in '05) - 3rd year (07/08) - 32G/77pts in 82GP
Pastrnak (#22 in '14) - 3rd year (16/17) - 34G/70pts in 75GP

Some will call it a fluke or just a really good year, but it's definitely not something that happens very often.

Comparatively, Bergeron got a 5yr/$4.75M AAV deal coming off his ELC (10.8% cap hit) while Kopitar got a 7yr/$6.8M AAV deal coming off his (11.99% cap hit). Obviously both were more proven when they signed their deals, but I really think those expecting Pastrnak to take a $6M long term deal (8% cap hit) are grossly underestimating what he's worth.

If draft position mattered after 3 nhl seasons it might be ammunition. Im pretty sure it doesnt

He wants to be paid like other players who are successful. Im sure he will compare himself to them. That includes guys picked in top 5.

 

[00BW]

The intransigence is disappointing.


Maybe Arizona would take Pasta+Lauzon/Zboril for Keller and OEL?

I'm not even sure that is a win for the Bruins as it will take Keller a couple years to get up to Pasta level and Bergy just turned 32. Probably only a 3 year window with him in peak form.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

The intransigence is disappointing.


Maybe Arizona would take Pasta+Lauzon/Zboril for Keller and OEL?

I'm not even sure that is a win for the Bruins as it will take Keller a couple years to get up to Pasta level and Bergy just turned 32. Probably only a 3 year window with him in peak form.

Me likeky. But think arizona would feel oel for pastnak and a kid wasnt enough... nevermind the add

They seam to overvalue him alot and reports were they wouldnt even trade oel for the matthews pick

 

[riverhawkey91]

Whats the odds mcdavid wanted the same % as crosby (which isnt even true and totally ignores ovechkins contract) or mcdavid said lets just round it off to an even 100 million?

As for your example of kane and toews whats the odds they got out their calculator and said ivechkin got 10.2% in 2012 but only 9.8% in 2014 and 9.5% in 2016 so carry the 1 and divide by a common denominator... = 10.5 mill? Or might they just have said we are the 2 best players on the best team... give us more than anyone else gets?

Hockey contracts have been handed out for 100 years and its pretty basic stuff ever since contracts were made public. You find comparables and try to get paid what they do... unless you are better or your team is desperate in which case you get a raise.

When mistakes are made the market moves... quite often in arbitration. Offer sheets almost always cause inflation... buying ufa years is inflationary...

Didn't quote the whole thing but addressing most of it. I've really got nothing much left for you if you honestly believe most of that. Your answer to basically all of that was that you believe it's all random and coincidental rather than following the math that actually explains most of it...I really can't help you there.

I still don't think you understand cap hit percentage though. The whole point of my examples were that Ovechkin's contract WASN'T more valuable than Crosby's...and that Kane/Toews contract's also were NOT more valuable than Crosby/Ovechkin's. The actual money changes because of inflation both of the dollar and the cap...but the contracts are still relative to the cap, and that's how you determine their value. And CH% doesn't change by year, that's part of the entire point of it...when a player signs a contract, they're signing it based on the only cap they know...they have no idea what future caps will look like. You can't really factor in future cap changes because it may very well not change at all...so they're signing for under a very specific cap.

Again, I don't really know what to tell you if you still can't understand what CH% means in terms of value. I mean if you really think Martin Hanzel now has the same value as Patrice Bergeron coming off his ELC and a 31G/73pt season...there's just no fixing that.

 

[riverhawkey91]

If draft position mattered after 3 nhl seasons it might be ammunition. Im pretty sure it doesnt

He wants to be paid like other players who are successful. Im sure he will compare himself to them. That includes guys picked in top 5.

That's the whole point. It's not about draft position...it's about progression.

One of the main knocks on Pastrnak in his contract negotiations is that he's not a top pick so he doesn't deserve a big contract early on. Those stats prove there's basically no one whose done what he's done in the time he has who wasn't a top pick...and realistically he compares favorably to most of those too.

Look at Huberdeau...3rd overall...given a 6yr/5.9M AAV deal AFTER a bridge despite breaking 20G once and never breaking 60 pts.
Look at Landeskog...2nd overall...given a 7yr/5.57M AAV deal off his ELC despite never scoring 30G or breaking 70 pts.
Look at Galchenyuk...2nd overall..similar first 2 years but no 3rd year explosion...given just under $5M on a bridge deal.
Drouin just got $5.5M on a long term deal and he's got less goals in his CAREER than Pastrnak had last year alone.
Barkov is making $5.9M long-term despite never breaking 30G or 60pts.
MacKinnon is making $6.3M long-term with stats that look like Pastrnak's in reverse...and without breaking 25G or 70pts.

The list goes on and on. I literally don't see how anyone thinks Pastrnak only deserves $6M long-term when all of those guys make close to that with way worse stats AND the benefit of being a top-5 pick and the future expectations that comes with.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

heres the guys that got big contracts after 3 years in the nhl over the past decade... included is the year they signed and the cap so we can see the real progression of salaries

2008 56.7
alexander ovechkin 13x9.538
sydny crosby 5x8.7
evgeni malkin 5x8.7
bobby ryan 5x5.1

2009 56.8
anze kopitar 7x6.8
johnathon toews 5x6.3
phil kessel 5x5.4

2010 59.4
niklas backstrom age 23 10x6.7
patrick kane 5x6.3

2011 64.3steven stamkos 5x7.5

2012 60.2
john travares 6x5.5
matt duchesne 2x3.5


2013 64.3
taylor hall 6x6
tyler seguin 6x 5.75
jeff skinner 6x5.725

2014 69
ryan nugent hopkins 6x6
gabriel landeskog 7x5.571

2016 73
nathan mackinnon 7x6.3
mark schefield was 23 8x6.125
filip forsberg 6x6
alexander barkov 6x5.9

we can see the cap was at 56 million dollars 10 years ago when guys were signing for a lot of money if they were franchise players... and for 5 mill on a 5 year deal if they were bobby ryan

by 2013 the cap had gone up 7 million dollars... but the % had gone down Tavares and Duchene and hall and seguin were not signing for anything close to what guys had previously

in the next 2 years the cap jumped another 9 mill but mackinnon was making only 300k more... notice mackinnon had to sign for 7 years and scheifield for 8 years to get their big contracts as opposed to the 5 year deals common a decade ago

so... the cap has increased 20 million in the past 10 years but second term contracts have actually gone down once you factor in that they are now 6 and 7 years long

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

That's the whole point. It's not about draft position...it's about progression.

One of the main knocks on Pastrnak in his contract negotiations is that he's not a top pick so he doesn't deserve a big contract early on. Those stats prove there's basically no one whose done what he's done in the time he has who wasn't a top pick...and realistically he compares favorably to most of those too.

Look at Huberdeau...3rd overall...given a 6yr/5.9M AAV deal AFTER a bridge despite breaking 20G once and never breaking 60 pts.
Look at Landeskog...2nd overall...given a 7yr/5.57M AAV deal off his ELC despite never scoring 30G or breaking 70 pts.
Look at Galchenyuk...2nd overall..similar first 2 years but no 3rd year explosion...given just under $5M on a bridge deal.
Drouin just got $5.5M on a long term deal and he's got less goals in his CAREER than Pastrnak had last year alone.
Barkov is making $5.9M long-term despite never breaking 30G or 60pts.
MacKinnon is making $6.3M long-term with stats that look like Pastrnak's in reverse...and without breaking 25G or 70pts.

The list goes on and on. I literally don't see how anyone thinks Pastrnak only deserves $6M long-term when all of those guys make close to that with way worse stats AND the benefit of being a top-5 pick and the future expectations that comes with.

for what its worth I agree that contracts of lesser players get pulled artificially to the benchmarks by the cap system. teams say we might not have a 6 million dollar guy but this one we have is the one we have... lets pay him close to 6 and tell our fans we have someone worth the while to buy tickets for

I mean we take this argument to the next level and say neiteriter and tatar are both getting 5 mill on long term deals and pastrnak is twice as good as both ot them put together so he must be worth 20 million

we can always find examples of desperate teams overpaying lesser players... but that's not my argument. I'm talking about market defining and market moving contracts. guys that you mention are back wash... these are people that are pioneering a new pay system. rather they get what they get because mistakes were made that set the market to this ridiculous level

arbitration does the rest... once the market is set arbitration will drag everyone to the new levels. so teams either bite the bullet and sign long term or they go to arbitration every year and end up with unhappy players

you cant set new market highs for guys that aren't worth it though. McDavid was worth it... ovechkin was worth it... stamkos was worth it... there are some players out there that you go ahead and give unprecedented contracts too

barkov isn't one of them... draisailt shouldn't be one of them... sadly pastrnak isn't one of them imho... hall... Hopkins... eberle... skinner... these guys had to fall into the line that the teams drew in the sand

as I do more research I'm interested to find a lot of guys were older than I thought when they signed their second contracts... Forsberg was older... scheifield was much older... johnny hockey was older... when these players are older they are actually giving away ufa years.

I'm also embarrassed to see kane/toews/kopitar above 6.3 when I said they weren't in earlier post I made. I guess only kopitar proves me wrong but still I had forgotten kane and towes were above 6.

but still the more research I do... the further back I go... I can prove time and time again 6 has been the ceiling forever... the ceiling actually went down in recent years from where it was.

% cap increase HAS NOT been moving the ceiling up for second term contracts

 

[CptxMorgan]

from boston: pastrnak, spooner

from colorado: duchene, johnson

U likey??

If Johnson didn't seem like a shadow of himself I'd reluctantly go for it.