David Pastrnak hits 100 points for the third season in a row

I wish this mock draft had been correct. I love the part about Pasta becoming a 45-60 POINT player. 2014 NHL Mock Draft: Updated Predictions, Analysis For First Round - NESN.com

While still low for how he turned out, the landscape was completely different.

The number of 80+ point players in each season from 2010-2011 through 2013-2014:

9, 9, 0 (48 game season—probably a similar total if full 82 games), 7

There were only three 100 point seasons.

Then Pasta was drafted.

The 2014-2015 season saw no one hit 90. Only five reached 80 points.

2015-2016 saw only Kane cross 90 with just our fourth 100 point season in six seasons. Only five players again hit 80.

2016-2017 saw only McDavid cross 90 with 100. Seven total hit 80.

Again, that range of 45-60 looks laughably low in retrospect, but with how point totals were at the time, how they spiraled a little bit lower, and perhaps even factoring in where they projected him to get drafted—Montreal, which has struggled to have a high scorer for decades—it actually doesn’t seem that bad to me.

That said, even a revised expectation of even 75-90 with knowledge of an increased scoring landscape would be skewered at this point.
 
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David Pastrnak started to play at high levels in 16-17, when he reached 70 points and surpassed the 30 goals mark for the first time.
From 16-17, to 21-22 (=6 seasons), he was outscored by Brad Marchand 5 seasons out of 6. So, your statement of „Bergeron and Marchand were 50-60 point player without Pastrnak“ is FACTUALLY WRONG.

Saying that „Krejci was better than both“ had merit for the first few years they played together, but for the past dozen of years, it‘s brutally laughable.

You sure about that?

Brad Marchand career high before 2016-17 = 61 points
Brad Marchand from 2017-2022 with high level Pastrnak = 85, 85, 100, 87, 69 (in 53), 80
 
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95 points which is currently pace for best Defencemans in the league. Even if he is back to last year form. you still have 4 forwards that are consistently great + Makar, so top5 is hard to crack either way,

As much as I think that point totals are meaningless.

Yes, Pastrnak is better than Matthews currently.

Currently, Matthews isn't a top 5 player in the NHL.
He isn't even top 10 right now, either.

As mentioned above, I believe he has a wrist injury that took place last playoffs, hence, why he isn't shooting the puck with much velocity and frequency this season.

A lot of his goals this season are up close infront of the net, or from one timers.

What's made him the best scorer for the past 5-7 seasons is his wrister.
It's fast and deceptive.

Without the wrister, he isn't going to be scoring as much and being as big a threat.
 
We’ve seen time and again in all sports that it’s not a straight shot to the results you’re thinking of. Can we stop pretending we’ve only seen Pasta on a bottom five team? They just set record in wins and points, while scoring over 300 goals two years ago. His points were very similar to what they will be this season.
Because they were a deep as hell team. He still scored like 50pts more than anyone on his team that season. Bergeron wasn’t the offensive threat he was earlier in his last season. Same applies for Marchand
 
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As much as I think that point totals are meaningless.

Yes, Pastrnak is better than Matthews currently.

Currently, Matthews isn't a top 5 player in the NHL.
He isn't even top 10 right now, either.

As mentioned above, I believe he has a wrist injury that took place last playoffs, hence, why he isn't shooting the puck with much velocity and frequency this season.

A lot of his goals this season are up close infront of the net, or from one timers.

What's made him the best scorer for the past 5-7 seasons is his wrister.
It's fast and deceptive.

Without the wrister, he isn't going to be scoring as much and being as big a threat.

Problem for Matthews is injuries are a legitimate criticism now. His great goal scoring doesnt matter when year in and year out he cant stay on the ice
 
Problem for Matthews is injuries are a legitimate criticism now. His great goal scoring doesnt matter when year in and year out he cant stay on the ice

Sidney Crosby has also been injured a lot during his career.

McDavid is also having a "down" year to his standards, due to injuries.

But, yes, injuries have plagued Matthews. Time will tell how much they really affect his career.

So far, even with the injuries, he is still able to play and contribute effectively.

You have the extreme side of injuries with Lindros, than, you have the mild side with Crosby.



After it's all said and done, he'll likely fall into the Sidney Crosby side of injuries. Crosby was injured fairly frequently in his career. But, he always recovered and bounced back well.
 
Yup, and surprisingly never had 3 straight 100 point seasons
He would have had 7 if not for lockout and injury though.

94-95: 70 in 48
96-97: 95 in 63
99-09: 96 in 63

Pretty safe to say those were all going to be way over 100 point seasons.

The other seasons:

95-96: 149 in 82
97-98: 102 in 77
98-99: 127 in 81
00-01: 121 in 81

Interesting note: In 99-00 Jagr was the only active player to have won the Art Ross trophy.
 
You sure about that?

Brad Marchand career high before 2016-17 = 61 points
Brad Marchand from 2017-2022 with high level Pastrnak = 85, 85, 100, 87, 69 (in 53), 80
he just wasnt on the powerplay until 2017, and then in 2018 league scoring went up a lot and kept going up. He outscored Pastrnak every year between 2016-2022 except 2019-2020.
 
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Because they were a deep as hell team. He still scored like 50pts more than anyone on his team that season. Bergeron wasn’t the offensive threat he was earlier in his last season. Same applies for Marchand

This isn’t fantasy sports. It’s not as simple as dragging and dropping someone into the lineup and seeing the stats soar.

I’m reminded of before LeBron’s first season in Miami. He had just come off averaging 29.7/7.3/8.6. People speculated that he could average a triple double—this was before the absolute surge of the triple double and the overall juicing of offensive numbers, so it really meant something. Surely, he would average more assists playing with bestie Wade and Chris Bosh, and not surrounded by “corpses” like he was in Cleveland. No, his line was 26.7/7.5/7.0. He actually had two of his lowest APG numbers while in Miami and he wasn’t replacing them with his own points, and his minutes were very similar.

Pasta is knocking on the door of being a top 5 forward in this league. Clearly he would be great and an offensive driver anywhere. But giving him someone like Draisaitl, Makar, or Point isn’t some automatic cheat code to score 130-140 and lead the league in scoring, which is what is being implied around here.
 
This isn’t fantasy sports. It’s not as simple as dragging and dropping someone into the lineup and seeing the stats soar.

I’m reminded of before LeBron’s first season in Miami. He had just come off averaging 29.7/7.3/8.6. People speculated that he could average a triple double—this was before the absolute surge of the triple double and the overall juicing of offensive numbers, so it really meant something. Surely, he would average more assists playing with bestie Wade and Chris Bosh, and not surrounded by “corpses” like he was in Cleveland. No, his line was 26.7/7.5/7.0. He actually had two of his lowest APG numbers while in Miami and he wasn’t replacing them with his own points, and his minutes were very similar.

Pasta is knocking on the door of being a top 5 forward in this league. Clearly he would be great and an offensive driver anywhere. But giving him someone like Draisaitl, Makar, or Point isn’t some automatic cheat code to score 130-140 and lead the league in scoring, which is what is being implied around here.
Haven’t watched a full NBA game in my life so I have no idea what you just said.

He spent much of last season playing with Zacha and Heinen and scored 110… do I think he could get another 20pts if he wasn’t playing with 3rd liners? Absolutely
 
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This isn’t fantasy sports. It’s not as simple as dragging and dropping someone into the lineup and seeing the stats soar.

I’m reminded of before LeBron’s first season in Miami. He had just come off averaging 29.7/7.3/8.6. People speculated that he could average a triple double—this was before the absolute surge of the triple double and the overall juicing of offensive numbers, so it really meant something. Surely, he would average more assists playing with bestie Wade and Chris Bosh, and not surrounded by “corpses” like he was in Cleveland. No, his line was 26.7/7.5/7.0. He actually had two of his lowest APG numbers while in Miami and he wasn’t replacing them with his own points, and his minutes were very similar.

Pasta is knocking on the door of being a top 5 forward in this league. Clearly he would be great and an offensive driver anywhere. But giving him someone like Draisaitl, Makar, or Point isn’t some automatic cheat code to score 130-140 and lead the league in scoring, which is what is being implied around here.

Did you just compare basketball to hockey?


Now, I'm not saying Pastrnak would become a 130-40 point scorer with a better cast.

But, that, analogy is extremely flawed
 
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While still low for how he turned out, the landscape was completely different.

The number of 80+ point players in each season from 2010-2011 through 2013-2014:

9, 9, 0 (48 game season—probably a similar total if full 82 games), 7

There were only three 100 point seasons.

Then Pasta was drafted.

The 2014-2015 season saw no one hit 90. Only five reached 80 points.

2015-2016 saw only Kane cross 90 with just our fourth 100 point season in six seasons. Only five players again hit 80.

2016-2017 saw only McDavid cross 90 with 100. Seven total hit 80.

Again, that range of 45-60 looks laughably low in retrospect, but with how point totals were at the time, how they spiraled a little bit lower, and perhaps even factoring in where they projected him to get drafted—Montreal, which has struggled to have a high scorer for decades—it actually doesn’t seem that bad to me.

That said, even a revised expectation of even 75-90 with knowledge of an increased scoring landscape would be skewered at this point.
I'd say the 45-60 point guess for Pasta reflects their thinking why he would be (and was) a late 1st-round pick, rather than lower scoring at the time, or the projection of him being selected by the Canadiens.
 
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You sure about that?

Brad Marchand career high before 2016-17 = 61 points
Brad Marchand from 2017-2022 with high level Pastrnak = 85, 85, 100, 87, 69 (in 53), 80

Re-read my phrase + refer to post #105, #113 + post #116 (for a color commentary that also happens to be right): yes, I am sure about that. 100% sure.
 
By the way, for that very rarified group that thinks that Bergeron and Marchand without Pastrnak were 50-60 pts players, besides all other factors mentioned by other posters that give important context, let it be known that Marchand, from 2016-17 to 2021-22 was the highest scoring left wing in the whole league during that period. And even considering right wing, only Patrick Kane has more points than Marchand (517 vs 506, with Kane playing 29 games more than Marchand. Looking at ppg for all wingers, Marchand is 2nd in the whole league in the same period, behind Kucherov).
Marchand, from 2016-17 not only wasn‘t a 50-60 points player: he was better than Pastrnak, and a top 2 wing in the world. This is fact.

PS: and this without mentioning what a two way powerhouse he was too.
 
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I didn't either, had to double check it.

Jagr went:

99
70 in 48
149
95 in 63
102
127
96 in 63
121

Think this goes to show that getting specifically 100pts in any given year is pretty random(injuries, shortened seasons, general slumps, scoring enviorment etc) and not really indicative of anything(no more than say above 98 or 102 pts is). Crosby never had 3 in a row either as far as I can remember for example.
 
This isn’t fantasy sports. It’s not as simple as dragging and dropping someone into the lineup and seeing the stats soar.

I’m reminded of before LeBron’s first season in Miami. He had just come off averaging 29.7/7.3/8.6. People speculated that he could average a triple double—this was before the absolute surge of the triple double and the overall juicing of offensive numbers, so it really meant something. Surely, he would average more assists playing with bestie Wade and Chris Bosh, and not surrounded by “corpses” like he was in Cleveland. No, his line was 26.7/7.5/7.0. He actually had two of his lowest APG numbers while in Miami and he wasn’t replacing them with his own points, and his minutes were very similar.

Pasta is knocking on the door of being a top 5 forward in this league. Clearly he would be great and an offensive driver anywhere. But giving him someone like Draisaitl, Makar, or Point isn’t some automatic cheat code to score 130-140 and lead the league in scoring, which is what is being implied around here.

It’s the PP that is the difference. At 5 on 5, I hear you. But on the PP pasta has gone from 7th over the previous 5 years to just inside the top 50. And thats all about lack of other weapons.
 
Think this goes to show that getting specifically 100pts in any given year is pretty random(injuries, shortened seasons, general slumps, scoring enviorment etc) and not really indicative of anything(no more than say above 98 or 102 pts is). Crosby never had 3 in a row either as far as I can remember for example.

Hell, if Crosby gets 3 more points this season, it will be the first time in his career he hit 90 points in three consecutive seasons, never mind 100.
 
By the way, for that very rarified group that thinks that Bergeron and Marchand without Pastrnak were 50-60 pts players, besides all other factors mentioned by other posters that give important context, let it be known that Marchand, from 2016-17 to 2021-22 was the highest scoring left wing in the whole league during that period. And even considering right wing, only Patrick Kane has more points than Marchand (517 vs 506, with Kane playing 29 games more than Marchand. Looking at ppg for all wingers, Marchand is 2nd in the whole league in the same period, behind Kucherov).
Marchand, from 2016-17 not only wasn‘t a 50-60 points player: he was better than Pastrnak, and a top 2 wing in the world. This is fact.

PS: and this without mentioning what a two way powerhouse he was too.

Sir, this is still just a f***ing Wendy’s.

Seriously though, I’ve never heard anyone say that. I’ve heard people say that they could both do an eight-ball at a time with dem snouts, that Marchand was a piece of shit, but never heard no knocks on their talents. But now that you’ve introduced the idea, it kinda makes sense..
 

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