Prospect Info: David Musil vs. Oscar Klefbom

[LTIR]

Okay I know I will be subject to much hate (initially) for this... but in watching OKC a bit more lately and looking at their trajectories... I don't know that there is a whole separating these two right now... how you view that (Klefbom a lesser prospect than we think or Musil a better one) is up to you but I think it is worth discussing

Musil- 6'4, 203
Klefbom- 6'3, 201

Musil- April 09 1993
Klefbom- July 20 1993

Musil- 36 GP, 1-6-7, -9
Klefbom- 39 GP, 0-6-6, -11

JonathanWillis
Talked to Oscar Klefbom today. AHL lists him at 6'3", 204lbs; he says he's playing at 215-217 pounds this season. Klefbom says he's really happy at the balance he's found between playing a heavy game in the defensive zone and keeping his speed.

 

[joestevens29]

I'm sure his down seasons had nothing to do with his back injury and divorce. I said it last june that Penner would rebound and the best thing for him would be to get out of LA. I figured he'd have to go further then Anaheim to do it but he's being put in a prime position in Anaheim and producing. I'm sure he would have produced here playing in the top 6. Imagine if we had signed him this year how much better this forward group could have looked. We need veterans on this team but for some reason the brain trust don't see it. Just for fun adding Penner to the current forward group we end up with this:

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Penner-Gagner-Yakupov
Perron-Gordon-Hemsky
Gazdic-Hendricks-Jones
Smyth

Looks a lot more rounded to me, but what do I know.

What's his excuse this year as Penner isn't a 30 goal guy this season.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Musil is pretty underrated here. I think people see his draft position, and think he should be better, but he's a shut down defenseman, and I would guess that most people only know what the see on stats pages, and what others here tell them. Shut down d-men who rely on size take a lot longer to develop. He could be Plante. But he could also be Scott Hannan, who was very good in his prime. If he is the latter, it doesn't matter if it takes him a bit longer to develop, he will be a valuable piece when he gets here.

 

[CupofOil]

How did he do? I'm sure he can't hear you from the stanley cup ring in his ear. When you trade a starting winger with size and 2 1/2 years later you have nothing at all, you have been screwed over. Oiler fans fell all over themselves laughing it up at how we killed lombardi in that trade. 2 1/2 years later we are still waiting.

Fixed, we easily lost the Penner deal.

You sure seem positive that the Oilers easily lost the deal.
Here's a newsflash. Klefbom is freaking 20 years old and this is his first season on North American ice so what is this nonsense about the Oilers losing a deal when we have no idea what impact Klefbom will have on the Oilers?

The correct answer is that L.A. got what they wanted out of the deal which is a forward who helped them win a Stanley Cup and the Oilers got what they wanted which is a 1st round pick that turned into a darn good prospect who can potentially be a fixture on their blueline for many years to come.
As of now, it's a win-incomplete because L.A. already got their value out of the deal and the Oilers were going nowhere with Penner anyway. It was likely only a matter of time until he was dealt anyway and the Oilers got a prospect who can potentially be an important player for them who wasn't going to be here long term.

Lets re-evaluate the trade in 3-4 years then we can get a better read on the return that the Oilers got. If Klefbom becomes a solid top 4 Dman for the Oilers, then the trade was a good one and if he turns out to be a bust, then it would have been a waste of an asset but a worthwhile gamble nonetheless.
Saying that the trade is a loss is just as dumb as those who said when the trade happened that it was a fleecing in favor of the Oilers.

 

[missinthejets]

Musil is pretty underrated here. I think people see his draft position, and think he should be better, but he's a shut down defenseman, and I would guess that most people only know what the see on stats pages, and what others here tell them. Shut down d-men who rely on size take a lot longer to develop. He could be Plante. But he could also be Scott Hannan, who was very good in his prime. If he is the latter, it doesn't matter if it takes him a bit longer to develop, he will be a valuable piece when he gets here.

I think a lot of it has to do with the talk about his skating to be honest. Big defensive defenseman with skating questions is not something fans get overly excited about. I don't know much about him, but he seems to be a smart guy and I will take a smart defenseman anyday because they know how to overcome their physical limitations. It's not like he was THAT much of a reach where he was drafted either, just some sexier names on the board.

 

[The Nuge]

I think a lot of it has to do with the talk about his skating to be honest. Big defensive defenseman with skating questions is not something fans get overly excited about. I don't know much about him, but he seems to be a smart guy and I will take a smart defenseman anyday because they know how to overcome their physical limitations. It's not like he was THAT much of a reach where he was drafted either, just some sexier names on the board.

His skating issues are overblown anyways. He's a decent skater. He's just not an explosive skater. Once he's going, he looks fine, and he reads the game well enough that he doesn't get himself caught flat footed. He actually wasn't a reach at all. He would have been a good pick normally, but Jenner (who I wanted, and couldn't believe was available), Gibson, and Saad were still on the board

 

[Raab]

What's his excuse this year as Penner isn't a 30 goal guy this season.

Hes also 31 now and on the decline of his career. Are you really going to argue that adding Penner to the current roster doesn't make us a better team? Or that having him the last few years would have given us a bit more depth and leadership during the rebuild and helped these guys turn it around a bit quicker? The Penner deal was a loss as soon as Teubert became a bust, the only way this deal looks half decent is if Klefbom turns out alright. We shouldn't even be including Klefbom, just like we shouldn't include Eberle in the Pronger deal or Lucic in the Samsonov deal. If these guys turn out great it makes the trade not seem so bad. But when the main guy we acquired (Teubert) is no longer with the org 3 years after the deal that speaks volumes to me.

 

[Fourier]

Hes also 31 now and on the decline of his career. Are you really going to argue that adding Penner to the current roster doesn't make us a better team? Or that having him the last few years would have given us a bit more depth and leadership during the rebuild and helped these guys turn it around a bit quicker? The Penner deal was a loss as soon as Teubert became a bust, the only way this deal looks half decent is if Klefbom turns out alright. We shouldn't even be including Klefbom, just like we shouldn't include Eberle in the Pronger deal or Lucic in the Samsonov deal. If these guys turn out great it makes the trade not seem so bad. But when the main guy we acquired (Teubert) is no longer with the org 3 years after the deal that speaks volumes to me.

The main piece in the Penner deal was LA's first.

 

[elmeroil]

I have followed David since his first year as a Vancouver Giant. Anyone that is writing him off has definitely not followed his development. He has the hockey sense and the skill set to develop into a steady shut down guy for the Oilers. Of course he has a lot to work on but what prospect doesn't? He is developing quite nicely and I definitely see him as a full time Oiler in 2-3 years.

 

[IV XIV XCI]

If Klefbom/Musil/Nurse/Marincin can all continue to develop as we all hope, we are looking at a massive (ie, tall/big) D corpse moving into the future.

Size does not automatically make a defender great, but it's a good place to start.

If we were to draft Ekblad this summer that would potentially give us 5/6 D over 6'3"

Maybe there is a light at the end of this loooooooong dark tunnel

 

[Replacement*]

You sure seem positive that the Oilers easily lost the deal.
Here's a newsflash. Klefbom is freaking 20 years old and this is his first season on North American ice so what is this nonsense about the Oilers losing a deal when we have no idea what impact Klefbom will have on the Oilers?

The correct answer is that L.A. got what they wanted out of the deal which is a forward who helped them win a Stanley Cup and the Oilers got what they wanted which is a 1st round pick that turned into a darn good prospect who can potentially be a fixture on their blueline for many years to come.
As of now, it's a win-incomplete because L.A. already got their value out of the deal and the Oilers were going nowhere with Penner anyway. It was likely only a matter of time until he was dealt anyway and the Oilers got a prospect who can potentially be an important player for them who wasn't going to be here long term.

Lets re-evaluate the trade in 3-4 years then we can get a better read on the return that the Oilers got. If Klefbom becomes a solid top 4 Dman for the Oilers, then the trade was a good one and if he turns out to be a bust, then it would have been a waste of an asset but a worthwhile gamble nonetheless.
Saying that the trade is a loss is just as dumb as those who said when the trade happened that it was a fleecing in favor of the Oilers.

While this is a pretty solid post it overlooks that the assets in this case are long ranged deferred. By quite a lot. LA already got everything they wanted out of the deal, got the ultimate prize, a SC and with Penner playing a reasonable part in that.

In terms of assets you can't just look at who will be better. The deferred factor should also be considered. Like it would in any asset mix trade. To wit whats better a mid earning asset that is earning every year or one that doesn't even start to accrue until 6-7yrs after the trade, if that. Really, how many people would pick the asset that starts earning in maybe 7yrs? Hell people don't even lock in for 7years on investment products and that's with annual accrual.

At this point what we know is LA won this bigtime in a lol transaction that got them the holy grail and didn't even cost a roster player. Not to mention the huge financial benefit there is to an org for winning the cup. Which does great things to even lukewarm markets. Kings already cashed in their chips and hit the jackpot. Klefbom needs to be a way better asset then Penner for us to even talk about this deal being close to even. Due to the long range deferred benefit. There is a cost in that. We're seeing that nature of cost every game, every year, in what is a sad sack lineup. That could probably use Penners size and intangibles.

Oilers needed immediate help when they made the deal. Not long range deferred assets.

WE don't need more draft picks. We didn't then either.

 

[Panda Bear]

I wasn't aware that we were in the hunt for the Stanley Cup when we traded Penner.

It's almost like context doesn't exist.

 

[Aceboogie]

Hes also 31 now and on the decline of his career. Are you really going to argue that adding Penner to the current roster doesn't make us a better team? Or that having him the last few years would have given us a bit more depth and leadership during the rebuild and helped these guys turn it around a bit quicker? The Penner deal was a loss as soon as Teubert became a bust, the only way this deal looks half decent is if Klefbom turns out alright. We shouldn't even be including Klefbom, just like we shouldn't include Eberle in the Pronger deal or Lucic in the Samsonov deal. If these guys turn out great it makes the trade not seem so bad. But when the main guy we acquired (Teubert) is no longer with the org 3 years after the deal that speaks volumes to me.

I don't get it? You claiming we past up on a 30 goal scorer, but he hasn't scored 30 since he was traded, and you admit he wont score 30 in the future.

We should absolutely include firsts, as those have a better chance of turning out. If we traded Yakupov for only 3 firsts (arbitrary number) and got Ekblad, Mcdavid, and what ever peewee kid will be #1 in 2016, would you claim we traded Yakupov for nothing?

But for 34d/4th round picks where the prospects are a massive unknown, the players picked in the deal should really be attributed back I agree though

The 1st was a pretty key part of the deal. Look at the Iginla or JBo trade, the 1sts were the main part

 

[Aceboogie]

At this point what we know is LA won this bigtime in a lol transaction that got them the holy grail and didn't even cost a roster player. Not to mention the huge financial benefit there is to an org for winning the cup. Which does great things to even lukewarm markets. Kings already cashed in their chips and hit the jackpot. Klefbom needs to be a way better asset then Penner for us to even talk about this deal being close to even. Due to the long range deferred benefit. There is a cost in that. We're seeing that nature of cost every game, every year, in what is a sad sack lineup. That could probably use Penners size and intangibles.

Oilers needed immediate help when they made the deal. Not long range deferred assets.

WE don't need more draft picks. We didn't then either.

Why is Penner being hailed as the player who put them over the top? Penner was a passenger the entire season, and the cup was won on the back of Quick. LA could have literally traded 10 1sts for Ryan Smyth and still won the cup. Would that deal be a win for LA because they won the cup with Smyth? Penner had an extremely marginal impact on winning the cup, his contributions (3 goals, 11 points) were mirrored by Trevor Lewis (3 goals, 9 points) and Dwight King (5 goals, 8 points). Was Trevor Lewis responsible for the cup? or could he (and Penner) be replaced by any 3rd liner and no impact would be noticed

And by keeping Penner, we would have not been any better off. He would have had a couple 25 point seasons (like he had), and we wouldn't have gotten Perron (an upgrade)

If we are talking about assets, Penner is an asset declining at a very quick rate, and is no longer with LA, and likely wouldn't have been with us today (he had 2 chances to sign here)

We also didn't immediate help, we were a horrible team with no prospects. The Penner deal is the exact example of a rebuilding deal

 

[The Nuge]

I wasn't aware that we were in the hunt for the Stanley Cup when we traded Penner.

It's almost like context doesn't exist.

Hey now! Logic has no place here!

 

[Replacement*]

I wasn't aware that we were in the hunt for the Stanley Cup when we traded Penner.

It's almost like context doesn't exist.

Were we in the hunt for icing an actual NHL team capable of competing?

Your comment is kind of silly. Because essentially with this you are stating the Oil weren't in the game anyway so may as well toss their chips in anyway. Nothing lost because nothing was to be gained.

But what an org loses should be obvious in reference to where we are. That when it loses veteran assets like Souray, Penner, Vishnovsky, its a series of questionable decisions that culminates in a club that becomes so completely bad. I'll never buy that should be the objective of any org to completely tarnish their brand like that. This team didn't become bad, or uncompetitive it became pathetic as a result of a series of bad decisions (many more have been listed).


The LA KINGS accomplished their immediate objective, already done, already cashed in the chips. They got the elusive cup the org had never won before. Penner had a good playoffs and was a part of it.

The Oilers, like any teams, objective should be in getting reasonable reflection of asset back

The Kings asset paid off. The Oilers much deferred asset is still in the mix and we don't know. WE do alredly know that the one part of the asset mix was an entire crash and burn.

I did want to introduce the concept that immediate assets are not the same thing as long range deferred assets and with immediate assets of course being preferential. It seems as if this differential value hasn't even been considered in the discussion.

Unless you buy the whole "we're just trying to suck and make this the worst team possible" posthoc revision that the org foisted on a fanbase at some point after they made the trade.

 

[Replacement*]

Why is Penner being hailed as the player who put them over the top? Penner was a passenger the entire season, and the cup was won on the back of Quick. LA could have literally traded 10 1sts for Ryan Smyth and still won the cup. Would that deal be a win for LA because they won the cup with Smyth? Penner had an extremely marginal impact on winning the cup, his contributions (3 goals, 11 points) were mirrored by Trevor Lewis (3 goals, 9 points) and Dwight King (5 goals, 8 points). Was Trevor Lewis responsible for the cup? or could he (and Penner) be replaced by any 3rd liner and no impact would be noticed

And by keeping Penner, we would have not been any better off. He would have had a couple 25 point seasons (like he had), and we wouldn't have gotten Perron (an upgrade)

If we are talking about assets, Penner is an asset declining at a very quick rate, and is no longer with LA, and likely wouldn't have been with us today (he had 2 chances to sign here)

We also didn't immediate help, we were a horrible team with no prospects. The Penner deal is the exact example of a rebuilding deal

I'm an LA Kings fan. Penner had a good playoffs. Who the hell cared what he did in the regular season its the playoffs that matter. (I guess we forget that here)

Judging from your statistical analysis you didn't even watch the games. Or you wouldn't be comparing Penners contribution with Dwight King, or Trevor Lewis.

Also, nobody stated Penner was "responsible for the cup" He was a very helpful ingredient and had a pretty physical playoffs, was hard to play against, and created a lot of space for linemates. The good Penner most definitely showed up in the playoffs that year.

Finally, it doesn't matter one iota subsequent to trade that Penner is a declining asset, he's not even the Kings asset anymore. Kings cashed in their chips. Jury is out on what we got in deferred assets.

lets keep it real here too. Plenty of posters here figured Teubert was a meaningful part of this transaction ftr and that his involvement made the trade more palatable in getting a player back.
But of course that was debunked as I stated at the time.

This is NOTHING about Klefbom either. Maybe he turns into a stud. But one can't assume that either. For now, and that's all I stated, Kings won this hands down.

 

[Aceboogie]

I'm an LA Kings fan. Penner had a good playoffs. Who the hell cared what he did in the regular season its the playoffs that matter. (I guess we forget that here)

Judging from your statistical analysis you didn't even watch the games. Or you wouldn't be comparing Penners contribution with Dwight King, or Trevor Lewis.

Also, nobody stated Penner was "responsible for the cup" He was a very helpful ingredient and had a pretty physical playoffs, was hard to play against, and created a lot of space for linemates. The good Penner most definitely showed up in the playoffs that year.

Finally, it doesn't matter one iota subsequent to trade that Penner is a declining asset, he's not even the Kings asset anymore. Kings cashed in their chips. Jury is out on what we got in deferred assets.

lets keep it real here too. Plenty of posters here figured Teubert was a meaningful part of this transaction ftr and that his involvement made the trade more palatable in getting a player back.
But of course that was debunked as I stated at the time.

This is NOTHING about Klefbom either. Maybe he turns into a stud. But one can't assume that either. For now, and that's all I stated, Kings won this hands down.

I guess well have to agree to disagree, because if Penner was on the Oilers, he wouldn't have made the playoffs, so wed have to judge his regular seasons (which were horrible)

The Kings traded beans for a useful playoff player, and won the cup, so they are happy.

But just because they won the cup doesn't automatically make the Oilers lose the deal. If we had kept Penner he would have had 2 horrible seasons, and would have signed elsewhere. So we would have literally been left with nothing. His depature marginally hurt the Oilers, and Klefboms emergence will have a bigger impact

 

[Replacement*]

I guess well have to agree to disagree, because if Penner was on the Oilers, he wouldn't have made the playoffs, so wed have to judge his regular seasons (which were horrible)

But you're conflagrating variables with that. Its not how it works. Theres unknowns and due to decisions that are made, not made. You can't transcribe one regular season had elsewhere to what would be had here. Completely different things and for obvious reasons.

The Kings traded beans for a useful playoff player, and won the cup, so they are happy.

Exactly, except very happy.

But just because they won the cup doesn't automatically make the Oilers lose the deal.

Again I never said it did. But the one card player already cashed in chips, made it to the bank, and has had feet up in the sun. The other org still tanking, still sucking, still losing, still miserable. Years away from the asset helping.

If we had kept Penner he would have had 2 horrible seasons, and would have signed elsewhere. So we would have literally been left with nothing. His depature marginally hurt the Oilers, and Klefboms emergence will have a bigger impact

YOu absolutely don't know that. Because its make believe.

 

[Aceboogie]

Again I never said it did. But the one card player already cashed in chips, made it to the bank, and has had feet up in the sun. The other org still tanking, still sucking, still losing, still miserable. Years away from the asset helping.



YOu absolutely don't know that. Because its make believe.

But the card player is not there because of his 3 of hearts, hes there because of his Aces and Kings. Likewise, the other Card player is not sucking because they traded away that 3. I would say its 1 year away, perhaps even weeks. Had Klefbom not gotten injured he would have been in the NHL. Hell, before last season Oilers mgmt was trying to get him to come over as he was NHL ready, and in his SEL games it was reported he was more than ready

It cant be reasonably for sure. Before leaving Edmonton he was having a down season. After being traded he had 2 bad seasons, and had a third bad one last season

 

[Replacement*]

But the card player is not there because of his 3 of hearts, hes there because of his Aces and Kings. Likewise, the other Card player is not sucking because they traded away that 3. I would say its 1 year away, perhaps even weeks. Had Klefbom not gotten injured he would have been in the NHL. Hell, before last season Oilers mgmt was trying to get him to come over as he was NHL ready, and in his SEL games it was reported he was more than ready

It cant be reasonably for sure. Before leaving Edmonton he was having a down season. After being traded he had 2 bad seasons, and had a third bad one last season

Can't agree with calling Penner our 3. I'm not a big fan personally but realistically he was only one season removed from being our Ace. Right? Penner had a MUCH different role here and the two can't even be compared.

Can't agree either that Klef was ready for NHL prior to injury. C'mon, not even Nurse who is a higher touted player and pick is ready. D generally aren't for quite awhile as we know. There was no way in hell Klef was sticking in the NHL that early. Theres been a lot of nights where it hasn't been clear Klef is ready for AHL or for prospects level play.

 

[Aceboogie]

Can't agree either that Klef was ready for NHL prior to injury. C'mon, not even Nurse who is a higher touted player and pick is ready. D generally aren't for quite awhile as we know. There was no way in hell Klef was sticking in the NHL that early. Theres been a lot of nights where it hasn't been clear Klef is ready for AHL or for prospects level play.

http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/4/dropping-a-klefbom

Lundén:According to sources who’ve talked to Klefbom the Oilers have tried to persuade Klefbom, offering him a spot on the Oilers roster with guaranteed ice-time, a guarantee that the highly thought of Schultz didn’t receive (or so they say). Klefbom have yet to make up his mind, saying “it’s obviously a lucrative offer” that “makes you think” but “nothing is decided yet and I’ve asked them for more time to make a final decision”.
I trust his word, the guy is connected and there's a direct quote in there.

The Oilers tried to get him over to NA prior to last season. Would he have been rushed? perhaps. But in his short SEL stint (cut short by injury), he was regarded as one of the teams best D, and was looking very good playing 20 mins a game. Tough to say, but he may have been able to play 15-20 games in the NHL last season, then play in the AHL for the rest and be NHL this season. Even a guy like Marincin was expected to be NHL ready for another 1.5 seasons min, but shocked alot of people

Im not sure where you get that he wasnt ready for any prospectlevel play? Maybe at the very start of the season, but that was after missing a year of competitive hockey and switch to NA style of play. By all accounts (including the coaches) he has developed leaps and bounds from the start of the season, and has been one of OKCs best defenders

 

[McGoMcD]

I wasn't aware that we were in the hunt for the Stanley Cup when we traded Penner.

It's almost like context doesn't exist.

Losing the Penner trade is a joke, he would have done nothing here and would be gone now as he would have bolted via UFA. I wouldn't even want him back any way, too lazy.

Klef will be a solid D man at the NHL level. HE will either be a better Smid or a poor mans Doughty. I don't think he has that kind of upside, but, He will be a monster defender and will get 20-30 points per year.

 

[Replacement*]

http://oilersnation.com/2012/7/4/dropping-a-klefbom



The Oilers tried to get him over to NA prior to last season. Would he have been rushed? perhaps. But in his short SEL stint (cut short by injury), he was regarded as one of the teams best D, and was looking very good playing 20 mins a game. Tough to say, but he may have been able to play 15-20 games in the NHL last season, then play in the AHL for the rest and be NHL this season. Even a guy like Marincin was expected to be NHL ready for another 1.5 seasons min, but shocked alot of people

Im not sure where you get that he wasnt ready for any prospectlevel play? Maybe at the very start of the season, but that was after missing a year of competitive hockey and switch to NA style of play. By all accounts (including the coaches) he has developed leaps and bounds from the start of the season, and has been one of OKCs best defenders

OKC is not a very good team and with not exceptional D either. I note a lot of posts in the thread not making much difference between Mucil and Klefbom. with those tending to be from noted OKC viewers.

As far as SEL we know that performance in one means next to nothing in the other. Results, performance really not being transferrable.

But anyway good discussion, and again ftr I'm not counting Klef out or anything as he is still very young. You don't find a lot of 20old D that look all that good.

 

[Raab]

I don't get it? You claiming we past up on a 30 goal scorer, but he hasn't scored 30 since he was traded, and you admit he wont score 30 in the future.

We should absolutely include firsts, as those have a better chance of turning out. If we traded Yakupov for only 3 firsts (arbitrary number) and got Ekblad, Mcdavid, and what ever peewee kid will be #1 in 2016, would you claim we traded Yakupov for nothing?

But for 34d/4th round picks where the prospects are a massive unknown, the players picked in the deal should really be attributed back I agree though

The 1st was a pretty key part of the deal. Look at the Iginla or JBo trade, the 1sts were the main part

Penner was a 30 goal scorer the year before we dealt him IIRC. Thats where the 30 goal scorer came from. And when I look at the deal I look at the pick and where it was ranked. So taking that into consideration would you accept a 19th overall pick who may or may not turn out in 4-7 years for a 28 year old player in his prime who had already had two 30 goals seasons with another year left on his deal and no reason to trade him? Tambo got taken out behind the barn on the Penner deal, the fact that he didn't get any of Clifford, King, or Voynov in the deal show how incompetent Tambo was. Tambo stated he was going to make a big strong team. He then has a chance to pick up guys for cheap that bring that game and didn't pull the trigger.