David Desharnais - Conn Smythe Edition

[DAChampion]

DD gets a lot of his assists off the faceoff so obviously zone starts mean a lot.

 

[Mathletic]

not aware of the numbers ?? like the guy doesnt know what he's doing or something ??

come on man...

Like I said, it doesn't change anything to begin with. So, who cares?

DD gets a lot of his assists off the faceoff so obviously zone starts mean a lot.

So, because he's good at faceoffs and an offensive player, you just showed he should get more ozone starts than other players

 

[Canadienna]

DD has been in the playoffs?

I wouldn't have known with how invisible he's been..

 

[ECWHSWI]

Like I said, it doesn't change anything to begin with. So, who cares?



So, because he's good at faceoffs and an offensive player, you just showed he should get more ozone starts than other players

well, you do seem to care as you are here debating the numbers and somewhat trying to "explain" to everyone it's OK to give the midget more ozone starts...


well, for all those posts of yours saying it changes very little (like in the 1st bolded part, you know )...

 

[Unclewhalebone]

Is someone an idiot for calling heads instead of tails?

You know though that hockey is a game of getting "edges". Every little edge matters. The best a team can ever do is flip a weighted coin, and clearly every bit of an edge matters. Small margins can add up to a big difference over the course of 4 "flips" or rounds.

The real question is not whether the margin is small, but how do we get the margin in our favour.

 

[Mathletic]

well, you do seem to care as you are here debating the numbers and somewhat trying to "explain" to everyone it's OK to give the midget more ozone starts...


well, for all those posts of yours saying it changes very little (like in the 1st bolded part, you know )...

My point: zone starts matter very little. Coaching staff isn't causing any harm by giving DD more ozone starts. For all I know I'll let them make the decision as to who should get them as they're more knowledgeable about strategies than the people around here.

My reply meant that if DD benefits from them, you're actually showing why DD should get more of them. As in the vast majority of cases zone starts don't matter, if DD is actually more productive than average at them, then he should get more ozone starts.

You know though that hockey is a game of getting "edges". Every little edge matters. The best a team can ever do is flip a weighted coin, and clearly every bit of an edge matters. Small margins can add up to a big difference over the course of 4 "flips" or rounds.

The real question is not whether the margin is small, but how do we get the margin in our favour.

Well then you just proved the staff right as they're using their most productive line for ozone starts.

 

[DAChampion]

Like I said, it doesn't change anything to begin with. So, who cares?



So, because he's good at faceoffs and an offensive player, you just showed he should get more ozone starts than other players

Faceoffs are a coin toss.

 

[Mathletic]

Faceoffs are a coin toss.

Funny you weren't saying that in the Eller thread this winter when you pointed out how good he was at winning face-offs

 

[Unclewhalebone]

Well then you just proved the staff right as they're using their most productive line for ozone starts.

Not if we could put together a more productive line with a different combination of players from our roster.
Truth be told, without the numbers right in front of me, I would guess that Chuck-Plek-Gally has produced more goals for this team than Pac-DD-DSP.

 

[Kriss E]

Without looking at the stats, would you be inclined to think starting in the offensive zone helps you scoring more goals? Yeah. Now look at the numbers and see if there's a difference.

Plekanec had about 100 more offensive zone faceoffs this year. He finished with 9 more points.
It doesn't mean it's the only factor for his point increase but to argue having more offensive zone faceoffs doesn't help produce is just completely stupid.

 

[Mathletic]

Plekanec had about 100 more offensive zone faceoffs this year. He finished with 9 more points.
It doesn't mean it's the only factor for his point increase but to argue having more offensive zone faceoffs doesn't help produce is just completely stupid.

Well okay? Send Johnson an email telling him he's stupid. It's not like the numbers are hard to work out.

 

[DAChampion]

Funny you weren't saying that in the Eller thread this winter when you pointed out how good he was at winning face-offs

Not extensively, no. It's a very minor piint in Eller's favour.

 

[habsfanatics*]

Is someone making $50,501 a year more rich than someone making $50,500? Yeah. Is he Richie Rich rich in comparison? No.



Without looking at the stats, would you be inclined to think starting in the offensive zone helps you scoring more goals? Yeah. Now look at the numbers and see if there's a difference.



A lot happens during any sequence. Quite a bit of randomness.

There's virtually no difference, I'm not sure why these numbers keeping being brought forward as something meaningful, they aren't.

 

[TheBlindFan]

I don't how to put it but base on fact (NHL points and nhl professionnal decision (coaches, agents & GM)

Plekanec is the best center the habs and has been for years
DD and Eller are very diffent but are juged pretty much equal in global impact base on nhl professionnal... even global TOI, $$, professionnal analysis reflect it...
Base on facts (nhl standing) we are globally one of the top team in the NHL. (a lot of medias accross(not just local) put us as one of the contenders...

Why claiming otherwise?

I don't understand why DD need to be mediocre all the time? Why Eller or Galchenyuk need absolute to take is "1rst center place" to success, for the team to success? Why without a 1 center, we have no chance to win anything?

Tell me how come we aren't having any success this year? Cause then, you may just being looking at the wrong year...

Alway been a balance line advocate (and well balanced TOI (energy is a limited commodite, any athletics know that)). We have it and some how it's working. If you claim it cannot work, tell that to the habs. Is you claim that we cannot win the cup with it, then I hope you are wrong. Claim it's not a existing strategy, then, we need to starting learning about hockey... It's a great sport !

 

[Wats]

He's doing really good relative to his capabilities IMO. Hard to imagine him to do better, any further production this series is gravy.

 

[Kriss E]

Well okay? Send Johnson an email telling him he's stupid. It's not like the numbers are hard to work out.

You: There's no difference when you get more off.zone FOs.
Me: Plek had over 100 more off.zone FOs this year and had 9 more pts.
You: Send an email telling creator of site he's stupid.

Awesome arguments. You are full of them.

Just use your damn logic, if you still have any.
Does having 3 off.zone faceoffs more per year change much, probably not.
100 though?? Yea. Then add other factors. Are you facing weaker opponents in a good bunch of those 100 extra off.zone FOs? Are you doing it with better linemates as well??

I mean really. Use your damn logic.

 

[Mathletic]

You: There's no difference when you get more off.zone FOs.
Me: Plek had over 100 more off.zone FOs this year and had 9 more pts.
You: Send an email telling creator of site he's stupid.

Awesome arguments. You are full of them.

Just use your damn logic, if you still have any.
Does having 3 off.zone faceoffs more per year change much, probably not.
100 though?? Yea. Then add other factors. Are you facing weaker opponents in a good bunch of those 100 extra off.zone FOs? Are you doing it with better linemates as well??

I mean really. Use your damn logic.

I hope you realize I'm using per60 numbers adjusted for zone starts. Doesn't matter that you get 100 more or not. If you want me to tell you that getting 100 more ozone faceoffs helped him getting more points. Fine, it may have gotten him a point. Big deal. Besides, it could easily be argued that he's getting more ozone faceoffs because he's playing better hockey. Not playing hockey because he's getting more ozone faceoffs.

 

[groovejuice]

I hope you realize I'm using per60 numbers adjusted for zone starts. Doesn't matter that you get 100 more or not. If you want me to tell you that getting 100 more ozone faceoffs helped him getting more points. Fine, it may have gotten him a point. Big deal. Besides, it could easily be argued that he's getting more ozone faceoffs because he's playing better hockey. Not playing hockey because he's getting more ozone faceoffs.

Please enlighten me here, because seriously, I'm not sure how this adjusted stat works.

My impression is that it takes a small sample size and merely converts it to to a larger one by ratio for comparison sake. Is that it?

 

[Kriss E]

I hope you realize I'm using per60 numbers adjusted for zone starts. Doesn't matter that you get 100 more or not. If you want me to tell you that getting 100 more ozone faceoffs helped him getting more points. Fine, it may have gotten him a point. Big deal. Besides, it could easily be argued that he's getting more ozone faceoffs because he's playing better hockey. Not playing hockey because he's getting more ozone faceoffs.

Plekanec has played 30 min more at ES this year. So unless you think he took 100 off.zone in these 30 extra min, you can throw that theory straight down the crapper.

And yes, you could say it's because he's magically playing better. But, again, when you understand the actual game of hockey, an increased production was predictable (and it actually was predicted by quite a few of us) when Bergevin moved away from having a useless 4th line with guys like Briere-Bourque-Parros-White-Bournival, that Therrien could not actually use for defensive responsibilities, which forced him to use Plekanec in a more defensive role and fed DD with the offensive opportunities. Bergevin decided to bring back players to create a more defensive 4th line with Maholtra and moving down Prust like he did when we had Halpern two years ago.

The role of the 4th line changed. But again, you do not understand how roles differ as proven with your ''infamous exploitation line'' comment.

So ya, people predicted Plekanec's production would increase as his offensive opportunities would rise. I had this debate with 417 many times last year where he kept saying Plekanec had just declined and chose to disregard roles. He was wrong, and you are also wrong in suggesting getting more offensive opportunities doesn't help produce.

 

[JLP]

Seems obvious that it's generally easier to score goals starting 20 ft from the goal than starting 160 ft from the goal.

 

[DAChampion]

Seems obvious that it's generally easier to score goals starting 20 ft from the goal than starting 160 ft from the goal.

Particularly for slow skaters.

 

[Kjell Dahlin]

Numbers I posted were adjusted for zone starts btw.

...

for the top scorers since the return from the lockout (5-on-5 zone adjusted numbers)

Max and DD
CF%: 54.2%
GF/60: 3.09
GF%: 58.5%

Ovechkin and Backstrom
CF%: 51.5%
GF/60: 2.47
GF%: 47.3%

Stamkos and Killorn
CF%: 55.4%
GF/60: 3.12
GF%: 50.7%

Pavelski and Thornton
CF%: 59.5%
GF/60: 3.26
GF%: 61.9%

Perry and Getzlaf
CF%: 52.6%
GF/60: 3.89
GF%: 62.3%

Parise and Pominville
CF%: 54.6%
GF/60: 2.62
GF%: 63.5%

Seguin and Benn
CF%: 53.5%
GF/60: 3.96
GF%: 60.1%

Nash and Stepan
CF%: 52.7%
GF/60: 3.75
GF%: 69.1%

Jeff Carter and Mike Richards
CF%: 53.6%
GF/60: 2.4
GF%: 53.6%

Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak
CF%: 45.9%
GF/60: 3.03
GF%: 48.6%

John Tavares and Kyle Okposo
CF%: 51.4%
GF/60: 3.06
GF%: 52.5%

I still wish for Pacioretty – Plekanec but ^^this^^ is amazing!

 

[Kriss E]

Seems obvious that it's generally easier to score goals starting 20 ft from the goal than starting 160 ft from the goal.

Apparently not that obvious to some.

 

[DAChampion]

Zone adjusted numbers will overestimate Desharnais' aptitude if the model assumes that zone starts don't matter.

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

I hope you realize I'm using per60 numbers adjusted for zone starts. Doesn't matter that you get 100 more or not. If you want me to tell you that getting 100 more ozone faceoffs helped him getting more points. Fine, it may have gotten him a point. Big deal. Besides, it could easily be argued that he's getting more ozone faceoffs because he's playing better hockey. Not playing hockey because he's getting more ozone faceoffs.

As someone who have talked a bunch about zone starts I agree to a fair extent with on zone starts effect on point totals. I don't think its a huge effect. The big usage modifiers on point totals are most likely going to be linemates and power play usage (both of which have generally been in Desharnais favour).

Where zone starts are a more important factor is shot and goal differential. Which isn't so much that they have a gigantic effect, but they have a signficant one given the range of talents involved. If a zone start shift results in 2-3 more goals scored in your favour and 2-3 less against, that isn't going to have a big result on your counting stats. A 4-6 goal swing in true goal differential talent though is a big factor to consider.

I'll add though, that I tend to view Johnson's work with a fair degree of skepticism, although I've never looked into his work on this are that closely. Too many times have I seen people I find credible take a look at his methods and find them wanting.