Player Discussion David Backes

[EverettMike]

When it comes to his production matching last season that is actually terrible news.

Here are his basic numbers from last season: 79 games played, 21 goals, 24 assists, 45 points (previous two seasons he had 57 points in 74 games and 58 points in 80 games).

He obviously won't play 79 games this year, but since his injuries were fluky let's just prorate them out to 79 for this year: 79 games, 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points. (His actual numbers thus far are 48 games, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points.)

Last season was his lowest total since his second season at age 23, when he had 31 points in 72 games. The strike shortened year he was 28 points in 48 games, which is a 48 point pace in 82 games.

Otherwise he has been mostly in the 50s, with a high of 62.

Now here's why it is really scary. Last year he had an absurdly low percentage of offensive zone starts, only 38.6% (Bergeron's season low is 42.6%), which some here blamed for Backes' diminished production last year. But his career average for O-zone starts is 44.9 (Bergeron's career number is 46.3%), so Backes does not get the advantage of starting on the easier side of the ice usually.

But this year?

He starts in the O-zone 53.1%, easily the highest of his career and only the second time he has ever been over 50 (50.8% in 10/11 when he reached his career high of 62 points).

So this is two straight years his production is on a real down slope, despite getting way, way more chances to start in the O-zone this season, more than he ever has.

There is no way around it: this contract is very scary right now.

 

[Bread and Circuses]

I hate saying stuff like this but I think you see what guys like him are made of come post season.....same with Krejci.....I hate saying it...but I think it rings true (I mean this in a good way...well if the B's make it that is.....).

 

[BNHL]

I would have preferred soderberg. As big and younger better playmaker.

In my opinion,Soderberg is a below average center.

 

[BruinDust]

In my opinion,Soderberg is a below average center.

Agree, Soderberg played like a 4th line guy IMO his last half season here. Colorado can have him.

And Backes playmaking skills are underrated. He's quite a good passer. Not a "thread the needle" type, but makes quick, sound decisions with the puck to get it on his teammates sticks in softs spots.

 

[DKH]

Agree, Soderberg played like a 4th line guy IMO his last half season here. Colorado can have him.

And Backes playmaking skills are underrated. He's quite a good passer. Not a "thread the needle" type, but makes quick, sound decisions with the puck to get it on his teammates sticks in softs spots.

Yes

Soderberg was the luckiest player on the planet when he got that deal from the Avs

My final image of him was a Jimmy Hayes like funk and even more disinterested

Backes is a much better passer/playmaker and I ever thought

Year 4 & 5 he makes $4 M and he can be moved

However he reminds me of playing the Joel Otto role I guy who did so much to help win

 

[BadBruins]

Each of the previous three seasons in St. Louis he lead them in SH TOI/G and was also 53% in the faceoff circle over that span (3500+ draws). Basically their version of Bergeron. That's what you paid premium money for. Not some hybrid of Lucic/Horton/Iginla type scoring winger. I don't agree with the way he's being used. Big parts of his game that you had to outbid other teams for.... aren't even being utilized.

 

[Absurdity]

Each of the previous three seasons in St. Louis he lead them in SH TOI/G and was also 53% in the faceoff circle over that span (3500+ draws). Basically their version of Bergeron. That's what you paid premium money for. Not some hybrid of Lucic/Horton/Iginla type scoring winger. I don't agree with the way he's being used. Big parts of his game that you had to outbid other teams for.... aren't even being utilized.

I agree 100%. He's also still playing RW, better utilized at C, on a line that has shown absolutely nothing 5 on 5 54 games in.

 

[NDiesel]

When it comes to his production matching last season that is actually terrible news.

Here are his basic numbers from last season: 79 games played, 21 goals, 24 assists, 45 points (previous two seasons he had 57 points in 74 games and 58 points in 80 games).

He obviously won't play 79 games this year, but since his injuries were fluky let's just prorate them out to 79 for this year: 79 games, 19 goals, 19 assists, 38 points. (His actual numbers thus far are 48 games, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points.)

Last season was his lowest total since his second season at age 23, when he had 31 points in 72 games. The strike shortened year he was 28 points in 48 games, which is a 48 point pace in 82 games.

Otherwise he has been mostly in the 50s, with a high of 62.

Now here's why it is really scary. Last year he had an absurdly low percentage of offensive zone starts, only 38.6% (Bergeron's season low is 42.6%), which some here blamed for Backes' diminished production last year. But his career average for O-zone starts is 44.9 (Bergeron's career number is 46.3%), so Backes does not get the advantage of starting on the easier side of the ice usually.

But this year?

He starts in the O-zone 53.1%, easily the highest of his career and only the second time he has ever been over 50 (50.8% in 10/11 when he reached his career high of 62 points).

So this is two straight years his production is on a real down slope, despite getting way, way more chances to start in the O-zone this season, more than he ever has.

There is no way around it: this contract is very scary right now.

Not that I disagree or agree that his contract is scary, however when will we learn that it's not always easy for players to get used to a new system especially after spending their entire career in the same system (ie. Eriksson and Backes).

So couple that with a team that is underachieving offensively this year, playing RW more often than in the past and not yet finding chemistry with someone, I'm definitely willing to give him another year before I start becoming worried. Maybe he's going downhill from now on, maybe not. Age and performance is not always linear.

 

[BruinDust]

Each of the previous three seasons in St. Louis he lead them in SH TOI/G and was also 53% in the faceoff circle over that span (3500+ draws). Basically their version of Bergeron. That's what you paid premium money for. Not some hybrid of Lucic/Horton/Iginla type scoring winger. I don't agree with the way he's being used. Big parts of his game that you had to outbid other teams for.... aren't even being utilized.

100% correct.

In a league where big, capable centers who can be effective at both end of the ice are very hard to come by, the Bruins have one, and they decide to use him as a winger?

I questioned it from the start of the season. Play him at C, move him up to RW as the in-game situation dictates. Instead the Bruins pretty much made did the opposite with him as an exclusive RW, and Backes by his own admission isn't familiar enough with the responsibilities now to be effective in the middle on this team in this system. Now granted that can change, but with the lack of practice time, the ship may have sailed on Backes as C this season.

I'm even more baffled by this as I would of though Claude would of salivated at having another Selke nominated center in his line-up. But that hasn't been the case.

 

[BNHL]

Not that I disagree or agree that his contract is scary, however when will we learn that it's not always easy for players to get used to a new system especially after spending their entire career in the same system (ie. Eriksson and Backes).

So couple that with a team that is underachieving offensively this year, playing RW more often than in the past and not yet finding chemistry with someone, I'm definitely willing to give him another year before I start becoming worried. Maybe he's going downhill from now on, maybe not. Age and performance is not always linear.

Almost always. Peaking between 24 and 29 and settling down til 31 when most declines start. Elite players sustain peaks longer and sustain excellence longer. Backes is not elite. I would say this is a combination year of decline and new system ,linemates etc. that might lead to a rebound to 48 points next year.

 

[NDiesel]

100% correct.

In a league where big, capable centers who can be effective at both end of the ice are very hard to come by, the Bruins have one, and they decide to use him as a winger?

I questioned it from the start of the season. Play him at C, move him up to RW as the in-game situation dictates. Instead the Bruins pretty much made did the opposite with him as an exclusive RW, and Backes by his own admission isn't familiar enough with the responsibilities now to be effective in the middle on this team in this system. Now granted that can change, but with the lack of practice time, the ship may have sailed on Backes as C this season.

I'm even more baffled by this as I would of though Claude would of salivated at having another Selke nominated center in his line-up. But that hasn't been the case.

I'm not sure where the quote is, but I believe Backes said a few games ago when he was centre that he did not feel comfortable there (that game). Now the question is for a playoff bubble team, do you put him there and let him work through it and risk dropping further out of the race or go with the safer bet and put him RW and we all know Claude is a safe guy who also happens to be on the hot seat.

 

[NDiesel]

Almost always. Peaking between 24 and 29 and settling down til 31 when most declines start. Elite players sustain peaks longer and sustain excellence longer. Backes is not elite. I would say this is a combination year of decline and new system ,linemates etc. that might lead to a rebound to 48 points next year.

You can find exceptions for everything. Lee Stempniak had one of his best career years at 32 years old and he's nowhere near Backes' level, St. Louis won the Art Ross late in his career (he's elite), Ray Whitney had one of his best seasons late in his career as well. These are just recent examples.

You also have the other spectrum with a guy like Iginla who dropped off significantly out of no where, and he's an elite guy. Same with Chara.

It's never black and white, especially with the level of fitness with guys today compared to 20+ years ago.

 

[rocketdan9]

Rinaldo, backes, khudobin...brutal moves by Sweeney

 

[BNHL]

You can find exceptions for everything. Lee Stempniak had one of his best career years at 32 years old and he's nowhere near Backes' level, St. Louis won the Art Ross late in his career (he's elite), Ray Whitney had one of his best seasons late in his career as well. These are just recent examples.

You also have the other spectrum with a guy like Iginla who dropped off significantly out of no where, and he's an elite guy. Same with Chara.

It's never black and white, especially with the level of fitness with guys today compared to 20+ years ago.

It's pretty black and white. Of course there will be aberrations out of tens of thousands of hockey players Some players may have 1 season jumps after declining seasons,barely affects the overall averages. I don't think Iginla fell off a cliff,he had 30 goals at 37 years old which was a 35% drop from his peak. Stempniak? No comment. Everyone works out and eats the same,so it's all relative. Players are playing against other super trained athletes that are younger.

 

[BruinDust]

It's pretty black and white. Of course there will be aberrations out of tens of thousands of hockey players Some players may have 1 season jumps after declining seasons,barely affects the overall averages. I don't think Iginla fell off a cliff,he had 30 goals at 37 years old which was a 35% drop from his peak. Stempniak? No comment. Everyone works out and eats the same,so it's all relative. Players are playing against other super trained athletes that are younger.

This isn't true at all. Even for NHL hockey players.

Tell that to Phil Kessel. Or Zdeno Chara. Or Jaromir Jagr. I have a feeling they will disagree.

 

[TheReal13Linseman]

Rinaldo, backes, khudobin...brutal moves by Sweeney

don't forget Beleskey. Very bad.

 

[Boston Bruno]

don't forget Beleskey. Very bad.

Hits, Fights, was coming off a career high for goals - Was on fire for the ducks in the playoffs? Unrestricted and I am pretty positive more than 1 team was calling for him.

The bruins lacked that type of player, and while some predicted he was a one hit wonder but he was not exactly a lemon coming in.

 

[GoBs]

I agree 100%. He's also still playing RW, better utilized at C, on a line that has shown absolutely nothing 5 on 5 54 games in.

Been saying this since he got here. Bergerone, Krecji and Backes down the middle.

 

[DKH]

Hits, Fights, was coming off a career high for goals - Was on fire for the ducks in the playoffs? Unrestricted and I am pretty positive more than 1 team was calling for him.

The bruins lacked that type of player, and while some predicted he was a one hit wonder but he was not exactly a lemon coming in.

Exactly how I saw it as well

Kudos to the poster who saw this (what does said poster think of SB Sunday)

 

[EverettMike]

Signing a guy to a five year deal following his career year is exactly the type of move that blows up in your face.

 

[Boston Bruno]

Signing a guy to a five year deal following his career year is exactly the type of move that blows up in your face.

Providing you know it was his career year. Shades of Lapointe.

 

[Brucentric*]

Signing a guy to a five year deal following his career year is exactly the type of move that blows up in your face.

Are you talking about Marchand or Backes ???......

\

 

[DKH]

Providing you know it was his career year. Shades of Lapointe.

Marty Lapointe vs David Backes is hilarious whoever thinks that

Backes was the Blues Bergeron

Lapointe was like the muffler on the Red Wings Ferrari

This place never ceases to entertain and I'm not talking to you Boston Bruno who gets it

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

I hate saying stuff like this but I think you see what guys like him are made of come post season.....same with Krejci.....I hate saying it...but I think it rings true (I mean this in a good way...well if the B's make it that is.....).

As you suggested , the post season has arrived now . I am hoping Backes will play well down the stretch as the games become more meaningful.

 

[EverettMike]

Marty Lapointe vs David Backes is hilarious whoever thinks that

Backes was the Blues Bergeron

Lapointe was like the muffler on the Red Wings Ferrari

This place never ceases to entertain and I'm not talking to you Boston Bruno who gets it

We were discussing Beleskey.

So not so amazing.