Dallas and Houston are the largest metro areas with only one arena (I count AllState Arena in Chicago) and the Mavs will probably build their own arena in 2031. So its just a matter of what, if anything, Harris County can do to facilitate a second arena within the county if they can't do anything financial (even infrastructure) then maybe he agrees to bink with the Rockets for a couple of years and then makes a deal for a successor arena. With the current lease ending in 2033, if the NHL likes sticks with the idea of staggering the teams out they could have Atlanta come in in 2028 or 2029 (depending on when they formally award a team) and then Houston come in 2 years later. So we're talking 2-3 years of being in Toyota Center. OR they could tell Fertitta "either you work something out with Freidkin or all we're going to be able to do for you is a renovation of your current arena and you're going to have a competitor arena"
Now of course I don't know Houston well enough to say if downtown is even the best place for a hockey arena. I'll let the locals weigh in on that.
Great post. Downtown probably is the best place for an arena, because of how massive geographically the metro area is. Unlike other places we've discussed, downtown Houston is the center of the clock.
Dallas is probably best example of how it can work. The Mavs had no problem letting the Stars join them in Reunion Arena, because in their old lease the Mavs didn't control the facility, and they worked out a deal for the Mavs/Stars to co-own a management company that controlled Reunion, and now controls AAC. So sharing wasn't giving up anything.
We used to say that "NHL Houston has to go through Alexander" because the Rockets' owner's stake in NHL revenues from the arena was are already in the lease. Any non-Alexander owner would have to accept those terms in order to get an NHL team there, because a second publicly funded arena just wasn't an option.
But the lease is so close to the finish line that it's not a road block anymore. You're "losing" revenue by not having full control of the arena for only a few years, but those are the most lucrative years of any franchise because you're brand new, no one cares if you're good or not, and you're selling merch to fan base that doesn't already own any.
And it takes 3 years to build a new arena anyway, so you could get the team, spend a few years building towards your on-ice debut and then switch your focus to a new arena and have it time out with the end of the Toyota Center lease.
The other aspects, and why I really think this is a Fertitta "Teamwork" thing for Houston: Any new pro sports franchise needs a TV deal. Well Fertitta already co-owns the Space City regional network with the Astros. And he wants to bring a WNBA team to Houston as well. So now you'd have NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA on Space City. Two summer, two winter. So you need a "Space City overflow channel" which is doubling TV ads to sell. So you're not losing money cutting Friedkin into Space City; you need a second arena for NBA, NHL, WNBA and all the outside events you want to host, and UH being involved makes perfect sense as the Cougs could sell NBA arena tickets, and the UH programs would benefit greatly from NBA/WNBA facilities.
The synergy is there for these guys to be partners because you're not "losing business" with the NHL owner joining you, you're fully doubling the business if you use the amount of money you're willing to spend on an NHL team (that is lower than the asking price) and use it on a WNBA expansion fee, and a new "Houston Basketball Pro/College/Men/Women" arena for four teams.