Player Discussion: Damon Severson

[Cyclones Rock]

It's not like people over 25 of age are just set in their ways and must keep doing the exact same things in the exact same way over and over. Unless they want a player out of him who essentially would not be Severson, I don't see why he couldn't adjust some things a bit if they actually work with him and coach him, which they have the incentive to do because they are pretty much stuck with him.

There's a fine line somewhere between the "ability" to make mistakes and being an idiot who does the same thing over and over with poor results. If he's able to reduce the amount of "bad" mistakes, that would go a long way.

Agreed.

If Severson would just stop with the blind/fancy defensive zone passes which lead to goals against, then I'd think that his overall "error rate" would be around normal.

"When in doubt in the defensive zone throw it up the boards. Hard." would be my strategy with him if I were in a coaching role. Perhaps this has been tried to no avail.

While I never liked an 8 year contract for a player of his skill level and age, Severson can be a serviceable player if he can dramatically reduce the defensive zone disasters. What makes me pessimistic about him is that he evidently was prone to the same lapses in NJ. If he's not able/willing to make changes then as "Billingtons Ghost" said, then we have a $6 million/year dman who needs to be heavily managed/sheltered and obviously kept off the ice late in close games-not an ideal situation.

The solution to his problems in the defensive zone seem so easy from a distance but obviously they're not. Keeping my fingers crossed that Severson has a light go off and is able to drastically reduce his egregious d-zone mishaps.

 

[majormajor]

luckily the blue jackets are surprisingly in a feasible position to make this his role next year, if waddell wants to keep re-shaping things on the back-end.

1. extend fabbro + keep him with werenski
2. swing a trade for a legit top four guy who would go with mateychuk on the second pair

Getting a guy without a long contract would be nice. Perhaps there's a chance there's a UFA who would take $$ instead of term - I'm wondering about Kovacevic. He probably needs term though. Who is this year's Brenden Dillon (old guy who is still good) that we won't have to pay term? I'm also not sure we need an add, does Mateychuk actually need a babysitter, and perhaps Hunt would be ready to play with him there.

1. put severson on the third pair, either with a veteran UFA pickup or someone like daemon hunt or jordan harris who is a bit more defensively inclined

How are we already forgetting the Christiansen - Severson pairing? And why is Evason also forgetting it?

Those two were our second pairing for the first month or so of the season and handily outscored the opposition.

It's also not out of the realm of possibility that Mateychuk - Severson ends up being a really good pairing. Though I'd rather plan on them being on separate pairs, partly to spread the wealth.

i imagine they'll have an easier time trading gudbranson (limited NTC + one year left) than they will convincing severson to drop his full NTC and finding someone to take the contract.

Trading Gudbranson has to be the move. If we aren't willing to play Gudbranson on a pairing with Mateychuk - and I do have questions about whether Guddy can keep up in our highly active system - then I think we have to move him. Might take a bit of retention. I will miss seeing him with the team but it's the obvious play.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Getting a guy without a long contract would be nice. Perhaps there's a chance there's a UFA who would take $$ instead of term - I'm wondering about Kovacevic. He probably needs term though. Who is this year's Brenden Dillon (old guy who is still good) that we won't have to pay term? I'm also not sure we need an add, does Mateychuk actually need a babysitter, and perhaps Hunt would be ready to play with him there.

i like hunt but not as a second pair guy right away. would love to get a k'andre miller type who excels at retrievals and rush defending, and let mateychuk be active. i think they can be really aggressive on the trade market to find the right partner.

lazy analysis here (familiar targets) but looking at potential stopgap UFA options, i'd love savard as a mateychuk partner and ian cole to pair with severson on a third pair.

longer-term, i wouldn't love giving aaron ekblad a big contract but mateychuk does have some forsling in his game. could also do a lot worse than fabbro-ekblad-severson down the right side.

How are we already forgetting the Christiansen - Severson pairing? And why is Evason also forgetting it?

Those two were our second pairing for the first month or so of the season and handily outscored the opposition.

not forgetting it, but both players seem to be in the dog house now and for good reason. christiansen has not been impressive over the last month and severson has been a healthy scratch twice.

don't mind christiansen as a #7, but i also don't think he brings anything to the table beyond that for next year's d-core makeup. feels like they need someone who can play heavy PK minutes and bring a physical element. maybe a severson-gudbranson pair can exist but… don't love it tbh

Trading Gudbranson has to be the move. If we aren't willing to play Gudbranson on a pairing with Mateychuk - and I do have questions about whether Guddy can keep up in our highly active system - then I think we have to move him. Might take a bit of retention. I will miss seeing him with the team but it's the obvious play.

tbh retaining guddy down to 50% ($2m aav) for one year would make him a really attractive stopgap option for playoff teams that need toughness and depth on the blueline. he would be a legit asset.

not saying he'd return a first rounder or anything like that, but gudbranson at 50% for another team's 1-2 year cap dump + a 2nd round pick seems like a workable template.

 

[majormajor]

lazy analysis here (familiar targets) but looking at potential stopgap UFA options, i'd love savard as a mateychuk partner and ian cole to pair with severson on a third pair.

longer-term, i wouldn't love giving aaron ekblad a big contract but mateychuk does have some forsling in his game. could also do a lot worse than fabbro-ekblad-severson down the right side.

tbh retaining guddy down to 50% ($2m aav) for one year would make him a really attractive stopgap option for playoff teams that need toughness and depth on the blueline. he would be a legit asset.

not saying he'd return a first rounder or anything like that, but gudbranson at 50% for another team's 1-2 year cap dump + a 2nd round pick seems like a workable template.

I think slow players like Cole, Savard, and Ekblad are the exact type of guys who would get exposed in our system. Ekblad already has that issue in Florida. He was a liability in the playoffs except for a few games here and there where he maybe got a back injection or something. I think he's a good player in a lot of ways but a bad system fit.

I do think we may need a little more of that in the playoffs, perhaps guys like Mateychuk will start getting run over and we'll be in desperate need of some heavier players.

But if that's the case, and you want someone like that, then I think Gudbranson stays here.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I think slow players like Cole, Savard, and Ekblad are the exact type of guys who would get exposed in our system. Ekblad already has that issue in Florida. He was a liability in the playoffs except for a few games here and there where he maybe got a back injection or something. I think he's a good player in a lot of ways but a bad system fit.

I do think we may need a little more of that in the playoffs, perhaps guys like Mateychuk will start getting run over and we'll be in desperate need of some heavier players.

But if that's the case, and you want someone like that, then I think Gudbranson stays here.

size/mobility is why k'andre miller is at the top of my list. a guy who can snuff out rush chances the way he does would be a great partner with an activation-happy defender like mateychuk or werenski.

i don't think ekblad necessarily has mobility issues (not nearly on the same level as a cole/savard) but he's a weird player. sometimes i watch him and he looks a bit like pre-evason werenski, other times he looks a lot like the version of damon severson that we were hoping to get at $6.5m (good enough that you can live with the occasional big mistake). i think he's a borderline #2 or a really good #3.

if there's one thing don waddell loves, though, it's productive, respected veterans with a history of winning, and ekblad absolutely fits the bill there.

 

[Doggy]

All I know is that tomorrow night's game vs Pittsburgh is relevant and hoping we don't dress Severson just so he can F!@# it up.

 

[thebus88]

Severson is a good player. The haters in this thread need to chill out. I’m -THIS- close to start searching usernames and their past comments on guys like Peeke, Boqvist, Jiricek, and Blankenburg playing top pair the last couple years. God forbid some opinions on “1C Laine” and his apparent defense prowess…

Not to mention how ridiculous the apparent collective opinions are in relation to Fabbro and Severson. At least Severson CAN break the puck out of the zone, unlike Fabbro. Severson plays the game the EXACT way people have been calling for, for years. He’s comparable to Provorov 100%. Offensive minded 2 way defenseman.

And he’s literally not even the primary “at fault” CBJ player in many of these goals against that many of you guys trash him for, IMO. Its annoying.

 

[Napoli]

Not to mention how ridiculous the apparent collective opinions are in relation to Fabbro and Severson. At least Severson CAN break the puck out of the zone, unlike Fabbro. Severson plays the game the EXACT way people have been calling for, for years. He’s comparable to Provorov 100%. Offensive minded 2 way defenseman.

And he’s literally not even the primary “at fault” CBJ player in many of these goals against that many of you guys trash him for, IMO. Its annoying.

Fabbro is a much better puck mover than Severson. In fact, my main issue with Severson is his complete inability to break the puck out of the zone. You could make a 5 minute compilation of Severson doing stupid shit on a break out pass. A variety of nonsense such as passing it into the slot, dumping it to no one up the boards, and hitting the other team in stride on a flat out miss.

I can honestly say I have never seen an NHL defenseman try so many break out passes up the middle. They teach you not to do that shit in pee wee hockey.

Fabbro on the otherhand is doing fantastically here. Sure playing with Z helps but he also wouldnt be playing with him if he wasnt doing well. Evason tried Severson with Werenski and that was a disaster.

This is probably the best coach we'vs had since Torts and its really not a surprise he's figured out quickly who to trust more between Severson and Fabbro. So please, for god sakes, enough with this nonsense than Severson is better than Fabbro, he's not.

 

[majormajor]

I can honestly say I have never seen an NHL defenseman try so many break out passes up the middle. They teach you not to do that shit in pee wee hockey.

I think you need to focus on watching players other than Severson, you'll see that breakout passes up the middle are increasingly standard. When Severson is off his game, he lacks discretion about when to use it, that's the real issue with him and those passes.

 

[Napoli]

I think you need to focus on watching players other than Severson, you'll see that breakout passes up the middle are increasingly standard. When Severson is off his game, he lacks discretion about when to use it, that's the real issue with him and those passes.

Yes, I realize it's a growing standard in the game, especially for players to find outlets when teams are so good at shutting down the wings. Severson is however not someone who should be trying anything that risky. He doesn't have the defensive IQ to pull it off consistently, yet he still does it. Hence why he hasn't been playing very much of late.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Severson is however not someone who should be trying anything that risky. He doesn't have the defensive IQ to pull it off consistently, yet he still does it.

to severson's credit, he does see those risky plays. he's just not good enough to pull them off.

the one from a few games ago where he missed fantilli on a flashy pass, leading to a goal against, is a good example. most players wouldn't see that, and if he hits it (should've been fairly easy) they could've exited with possession. but he missed him by like 8 feet.

Severson is a good player.

Not to mention how ridiculous the apparent collective opinions are in relation to Fabbro and Severson. At least Severson CAN break the puck out of the zone, unlike Fabbro. Severson plays the game the EXACT way people have been calling for, for years. He’s comparable to Provorov 100%. Offensive minded 2 way defenseman.

fabbro's game is tailor-made to support a highly-active defenseman like werenski. that's why he worked so well with josi in nashville. severson on the other hand is at his best when he's the main puck transporter on his pair (which is why he worked well carrying christiansen)

severson is a better player and the good largely outweighs the bad most nights, but it's clear from the jump when it's gonna be a "bad severson" night. for a veteran player, that's a problem.

And he’s literally not even the primary “at fault” CBJ player in many of these goals against that many of you guys trash him for, IMO. Its annoying.

most goals against are a collective breakdown or hard to pin on one player.

the problem with severson is that when it's his fault, it really looks like it's his fault. lots of botched zone exits.

 

[Xoggz22]

It's not like people over 25 of age are just set in their ways and must keep doing the exact same things in the exact same way over and over. Unless they want a player out of him who essentially would not be Severson, I don't see why he couldn't adjust some things a bit if they actually work with him and coach him, which they have the incentive to do because they are pretty much stuck with him.

There's a fine line somewhere between the "ability" to make mistakes and being an idiot who does the same thing over and over with poor results. If he's able to reduce the amount of "bad" mistakes, that would go a long way.

Not to be a contrarian here, but the bolded has been the case for his 10 year NHL career. So by definition he appears to be an idiot.

This was the warning when he was traded for a signed. He's not a bad player, he makes bad mistakes at very bad times and, unfortunately, that has not changed in his career so I don't believe it is a coaching issue to correct. Just what we need to recognize is going to happen and hope they can overcome them when they do.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

This was the warning when he was traded for a signed. He's not a bad player, he makes bad mistakes at very bad times and, unfortunately, that has not changed in his career so I don't believe it is a coaching issue to correct. Just what we need to recognize is going to happen and hope they can overcome them when they do.

he's a talented and productive player with an unfixable flaw to his game. there are three paths that any team can take with that kind of player:

1. keep them in the lineup and live with the flaws
2. change their role to maximize the talent and minimize exposure to the flaws
3. decide that the talent isn't worth the flaw and cut ties

in all likelihood, path #3 is blocked by the player's NTC, unless they're going to keep healthy scratching him until he agrees to waive… in which case path #3 becomes costly because they'd need to add a ton to move the contract.

the ideal path is #2, which is essentially to replicate the conditions he had in his last season in new jersey, where he was nominally their #5 defenseman, played about 20 minutes a night, and was tasked with carrying a shutdown-focused partner. that's not feasible this year, especially if they trade provorov, but it could be a possibility next year.

we're probably stuck on path #1 right now, although evason's healthy scratches indicate that it's not really tenable moving forward.

 

[NotCommitted]

This was the warning when he was traded for a signed. He's not a bad player, he makes bad mistakes at very bad times and, unfortunately, that has not changed in his career so I don't believe it is a coaching issue to correct. Just what we need to recognize is going to happen and hope they can overcome them when they do.

I pretty much agree with you. Mistakes are part of his game, there's no changing that but if you could even help him finetune it just a bit, that would help. The way NHL coaching seems to be I wouldn't be surprised if the only "coaching" he's ever got about that is getting benched etc.

 

[Napoli]

he's a talented and productive player with an unfixable flaw to his game. there are three paths that any team can take with that kind of player:

1. keep them in the lineup and live with the flaws
2. change their role to maximize the talent and minimize exposure to the flaws
3. decide that the talent isn't worth the flaw and cut ties

in all likelihood, path #3 is blocked by the player's NTC, unless they're going to keep healthy scratching him until he agrees to waive… in which case path #3 becomes costly because they'd need to add a ton to move the contract.

the ideal path is #2, which is essentially to replicate the conditions he had in his last season in new jersey, where he was nominally their #5 defenseman, played about 20 minutes a night, and was tasked with carrying a shutdown-focused partner. that's not feasible this year, especially if they trade provorov, but it could be a possibility next year.

we're probably stuck on path #1 right now, although evason's healthy scratches indicate that it's not really tenable moving forward.

The way this is progressing, you're looking at a potential buyout in a year or so. Severson's mishaps may be deemed not worth it, especially if Dean remains the coach and this team gets closer to the cap/more competitive. For now, keep healthy scratching as they're winning without him.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

The way this is progressing, you're looking at a potential buyout in a year or so. Severson's mishaps may be deemed not worth it, especially if Dean remains the coach and this team gets closer to the cap/more competitive. For now, keep healthy scratching as they're winning without him.

i think dean could live with having severson on the third pair, and that would be preferable to buying him out. the middle ground would be asking him where he'd be okay accepting a trade (if he keeps getting scratched) and then offering him up with some degree of retention.

 

[Napoli]

i think dean could live with having severson on the third pair, and that would be preferable to buying him out. the middle ground would be asking him where he'd be okay accepting a trade (if he keeps getting scratched) and then offering him up with some degree of retention.

I think there would have to be some other options tried before then. Right now its not really worth the risk but he's easily better than JJ. This issue is, if you can't trust him enough to play him in the defensive zone, his minutes become really difficult to manage.

First option would be put him on the 2nd PP over Provorov, and place where he can excel. Go trade for a LD that excels defensively like a Lauzon and hope they balance out on the 3rd pairing.

Now that seems like a bit overkill, but if that what it takes to make him effective, you kind of have to do it. You're stuck with a very bad contract.

Or just scratching him and see if someone is dumb enough to trade for him ala the Laine trade.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

First option would be put him on the 2nd PP over Provorov, and place where he can excel. Go trade for a LD that excels defensively like a Lauzon and hope they balance out on the 3rd pairing.

Now that seems like a bit overkill, but if that what it takes to make him effective, you kind of have to do it. You're stuck with a very bad contract.

worth noting that he put up elite results (dom's model had his contributions valued at something like $12m market value) in his final year in new jersey, where he was carrying brendan smith on the third pair and getting a bit of PP + PK time. he was nominally their #5 but played the same amount of TOI/GP as ryan graves, who was on their second pair.

letting severson play like more of an offensive defenseman alongside a traditional stay-at-home partner on the third pair seems to bring out the best in his game, whereas his high-risk playstyle doesn't work well alongside LHD who like to take risks (werenski, provorov, mateychuk).

he's going to be overpaid no matter what. better for him to be overpaid in a role where he can be effective and win his minutes than in a role where he's dragging down the team's best players.

Or just scratching him and see if someone is dumb enough to trade for him ala the Laine trade.

i'm sure plenty of teams like the player, i just don't see a scenario where he waives and a team doesn't require a massive sweetener to take his contract on. too many hurdles to clear.

he has a full NTC for two more years after this one. seems like the smartest path is to try to recreate his role from new jersey over that time span, then see what the trade market looks like for him when his protection becomes reduced. even then, it's a 20-team NTC. yikes.

 

[Napoli]

worth noting that he put up elite results (dom's model had his contributions valued at something like $12m market value) in his final year in new jersey, where he was carrying brendan smith on the third pair and getting a bit of PP + PK time. he was nominally their #5 but played the same amount of TOI/GP as ryan graves, who was on their second pair.

letting severson play like more of an offensive defenseman alongside a traditional stay-at-home partner on the third pair seems to bring out the best in his game, whereas his high-risk playstyle doesn't work well alongside LHD who like to take risks (werenski, provorov, mateychuk).

he's going to be overpaid no matter what. better for him to be overpaid in a role where he can be effective and win his minutes than in a role where he's dragging down the team's best players.


i'm sure plenty of teams like the player, i just don't see a scenario where he waives and a team doesn't require a massive sweetener to take his contract on. too many hurdles to clear.

he has a full NTC for two more years after this one. seems like the smartest path is to try to recreate his role from new jersey over that time span, then see what the trade market looks like for him when his protection becomes reduced. even then, it's a 20-team NTC. yikes.

Yep, put him in that situation above as a last ditch effort to make things work and then see what comes of it. Without Gudbranson or trading for it, don't know if we can recreate it.

 

[majormajor]

worth noting that he put up elite results (dom's model had his contributions valued at something like $12m market value) in his final year in new jersey, where he was carrying brendan smith on the third pair and getting a bit of PP + PK time. he was nominally their #5 but played the same amount of TOI/GP as ryan graves, who was on their second pair.

letting severson play like more of an offensive defenseman alongside a traditional stay-at-home partner on the third pair seems to bring out the best in his game, whereas his high-risk playstyle doesn't work well alongside LHD who like to take risks (werenski, provorov, mateychuk).

he's going to be overpaid no matter what. better for him to be overpaid in a role where he can be effective and win his minutes than in a role where he's dragging down the team's best players.


i'm sure plenty of teams like the player, i just don't see a scenario where he waives and a team doesn't require a massive sweetener to take his contract on. too many hurdles to clear.

he has a full NTC for two more years after this one. seems like the smartest path is to try to recreate his role from new jersey over that time span, then see what the trade market looks like for him when his protection becomes reduced. even then, it's a 20-team NTC. yikes.

I have a similar idea about how to best use Severson but I think the certainty that many of us are talking about Severson with is a bit much. He has had multiple stretches in his career where he played fine. He started the year here playing well with Christiansen before he went off track, that was a solid month or so of good play. Maybe Evason gets him to take some risk out of his game and he ends up being a fine middle pair guy who doesn't need to be sheltered.

 

[majormajor]

Have a look at the success of various Jackets D-pairings this season (switch to Columbus, and to D-pairings), in terms of xG and goal outcomes. You'll notice that Mateychuk-Provorov hasn't been good yet, objectively. Every combination with Severson, be it with Christiansen, Provorov, or with Werenski, has been better in terms of xG and G outcomes.

I'm very confident in Mateychuk and I hope they keep him up here, I think his results will get a lot better and soon. But it's just more proof that we don't judge players by the same standard. You'll also constantly hear "wow Provorov has been really good". Scheig was just talking him up on the podcast. And I have liked him too, but you'd think the way people talk about them that there was some gap in outcomes between Provorov and Severson, and there isn't.

Severson being overpaid is not a relevant factor when you're deciding where he fits in the lineup or whether he should be in. It should just be about the results. Every player's contract, good or bad, is a sunk cost.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Severson being overpaid is not a relevant factor when you're deciding where he fits in the lineup or whether he should be in. It should just be about the results. Every player's contract, good or bad, is a sunk cost.

This is something we and frankly most fanbases struggle with. At some point, draft position is also sunk cost.

 

[majormajor]

This is something we and frankly most fanbases struggle with. At some point, draft position is also sunk cost.

Oh, instantly. It doesn't matter what they make or how they got here. They're just hockey players.

 

[Viqsi]

I think there would have to be some other options tried before then. Right now its not really worth the risk but he's easily better than JJ. This issue is, if you can't trust him enough to play him in the defensive zone, his minutes become really difficult to manage.

First option would be put him on the 2nd PP over Provorov, and place where he can excel. Go trade for a LD that excels defensively like a Lauzon

Lauzon hasn't even been particularly capable defensively lately, let alone "excelling". I would feel safer giving those minutes to Harris.

 

[koteka]

Severson being overpaid is not a relevant factor when you're deciding where he fits in the lineup or whether he should be in. It should just be about the results. Every player's contract, good or bad, is a sunk cost.

While agree on the cap hit side and draft position side, Severson is here for 6 1/2 more years. Provorov is likely gone. If you can get Severson to correct the stupid parts of his game with some benchings, that is a long term investment. With Provorov, you put him in the best position to succeed, don’t draw attention to his shortcomings, and hope for the best return possible when you trade him. Their contracts do dictate how they need to be treated.