D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft) | Page 24 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League
Toggle sidebar

D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

BKarchitect said:
I still don't get the "The best defensemen don't go #1 overall, generally, so you need to beware picking Schaefer #1 overall" theory. I mean, I'm sure there is some evidence that blueliners in general take longer than forwards to reach impact maturity. But to me that is a slightly different argument.

Why would Schaefer have a better chance at being a franchise superstar if he is picked at #4 rather than at #1? To me this argument actually proves the opposite - there are plenty of drafts where a defenseman does end up being the "#1 guy in retrospect". Isn't the logic that maybe teams should pick top defensemen earlier rather than assume their order on draft day has some sort of mystical influence on how well they develop?

I've also seen the "Well look at all these underperformer #1 defensemen!" lists - well...by logic, if fewer defensemen are going #1, when one does bust, it maybe seems like a higher percentage. But do high end defensemen truly bust at a statically significant rate that is higher than their forward counterparts? Maybe there is some proof of that...but I don't see anybody in the Misa thread making the connection that "Misa is a risk because look at all these forwards who go #1 and underachieve...he could be Nolan Patrick or Nail Yakupov or Juraj Slafkovsky (I like Slaf, not a dig there just an example), that's scary!".
Click to expand...
That sneaky slap to the face of Slafkovsky was funny ngl.

Slafkovsky will prove his doubters wrong in the next 2-3 years. After witnessing the playoffs this year, Slafkovsky will be more valuable than Cooley, I'm convinced of that.
In a redraft, Slafkovsky still goes top 3 no question.
 
isles55 said:
I’ve heard people say his shot is mediocre. Is that the consensus here?
Click to expand...
It’s not a strength. He’s more of a “deke the winger and get close enough for his shot to be a threat” than a guy whose shot is an asset on its own like Yakemchuk/Parekh/Dickinson. He’s not going to be ripping bombs from the point.

I would compare it to Noah Hanifin’s shot pre-draft, but I believe Schaefer has the hands and skating to be a better goalscorer than Hanifin.
 
  • Like
Reactions: teravaineSAROS
TLEH said:
I think it would be a massive mistake to play him in the NHL next season. Its OHL or NCAA. Without question.
Click to expand...
Couldn’t agree more and I said this the whole season. He can play in the NHL but may have a Jack Hughes esque first year. Needs atleast 1 more year and since AHL isn’t an option and OHL or NCAA is the best option as I don’t see the guy going over to Europe.
 
frontsfan67 said:
Couldn’t agree more and I said this the whole season. He can play in the NHL but may have a Jack Hughes esque first year. Needs atleast 1 more year and since AHL isn’t an option and OHL or NCAA is the best option as I don’t see the guy going over to Europe.
Click to expand...
Won’t let me edit this.

Thought we were talking about Misa for a second.

Schaefer would benefit from 68 games. NHL you play 82. Pretty close. Just needs to stay healthy then make the jump the following year
 
  • Like
Reactions: wetcoast
TLEH said:
I think it would be a massive mistake to play him in the NHL next season. Its OHL or NCAA. Without question.
Click to expand...
OHL = more games, which compensates for his shortened season, but to be NHL ready he needs to fill out so NCAA = more off ice training and conditioning.

A poster on this forum said Erie is supposed to be ass next year so maybe going to BU (who just lost Willander) is the play?
 
  • Like
Reactions: icelander25 and Fatass
seafoam said:
OHL = more games, which compensates for his shortened season, but to be NHL ready he needs to fill out so NCAA = more off ice training and conditioning.

A poster on this forum said Erie is supposed to be ass next year so maybe going to BU (who just lost Willander) is the play?
Click to expand...
BU is a poor fit for him with Hutson already there
 
  • Haha
Reactions: CheckingLineCenter and Thrasymachus
seafoam said:
OHL = more games, which compensates for his shortened season, but to be NHL ready he needs to fill out so NCAA = more off ice training and conditioning.

A poster on this forum said Erie is supposed to be ass next year so maybe going to BU (who just lost Willander) is the play?
Click to expand...

Not sure what the rules are with CHL transfers but if there is any chance of him riding out his time in college and becoming a UFA, I'd rather just keep him in Erie for another year and then let him make the jump in 2026-27.

That said I really wouldn't be surprised if he just looks so f***ing good in TC and the hype is so extreme that he makes the team immediately.
 
  • Like
Reactions: icelander25
Brock said:
Never dominated a tournament?

He was the best defender at the U17’s in helping Canada White capture gold. Then he was the best player, period, at the Hlinka/Gretzky, again capturing gold. He also captained both teams.

Not to mention that he was well on his way to performing as one of the best defenders at this year’s WJC’s as a double underager. That’s something that is rarely heard of. He would have easily broken Ryan Ellis’ Canadian record for points by an u18 defender.
Click to expand...
He also in his draft year even with the small sample and simply tilted the ice in Erie .more than any other Dman in the OHL

The kid is a stud prospect with better projection than any other D Prospect since Denis Potvin IMO.

Sometimes I wonder if some of the comments are from people watching and scouting him or just from the "we need to be contrarian" crowd.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BKarchitect and Roasted Nuts
wetcoast said:
He also in his draft year even with the small sample and simply tilted the ice in Erie .more than any other Dman in the OHL

The kid is a stud prospect with better projection than any other D Prospect since Denis Potvin IMO.

Sometimes I wonder if some of the comments are from people watching and scouting him or just from the "we need to be contrarian" crowd.
Click to expand...
NYI is very familiar with Denis Potvin.

He was a true #1 who was able to play whatever game you threw at him. Want to play physical? He'll take the body. Want to skate? He'll score or set up a goal on you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kannu and icelander25
blinkman360 said:
Not sure what the rules are with CHL transfers but if there is any chance of him riding out his time in college and becoming a UFA, I'd rather just keep him in Erie for another year and then let him make the jump in 2026-27.

That said I really wouldn't be surprised if he just looks so f***ing good in TC and the hype is so extreme that he makes the team immediately.
Click to expand...

There’s basically no chance he spends 4 post-draft seasons not in the NHL so I don’t think there’s anything to worry about if he spends a year in college. All that would be a “finishing year” to gain strength and experience. Like many, I think a single season of high level NCAA play would be a great transition, if he chooses that route.

I also agree with you there is a better chance than most here think of him simply looking too good at camp and making the blueline of whatever team that drafts him. He’s not 18 until September, still very much filling out if not growing and I think there a chance he shows up to camp at like 6-3, 190 or thereabouts…I think there’s the impression that Schaefer isn’t like a physical specimen but at a listed 6-2, 185 and still 17 for like 4 months - I think his pure physical athletic potential and immediacy is getting highly underrated by some.

That will open up a huge debate if it happens, and I think an overwhelming majority will think it’s a terrible idea (and they could very well be right). But I wouldn’t put it past Schaefer to look that good athletically out there and the team drafting him thinking they can have him learn on the job.
 
  • Like
Reactions: icelander25
So Where would Schaeffer rate amongst other top defensemen of the past decade of so going into a draft?

Starting say at 2011, where does he rate amongst Adam Larsson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Aaron Ekblad, Noah Hanafin, Miro Heiskanen, Cal Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Bowan Bryan. I'll stop here since sample size is to small for 2020 and above.

Don't need a ranking of these guys, just something that says yeah he would be better than 25%, 50%, 75%, etc of them(or Player X, Y, Z were better than him going into the draft)

To me this draft sort of mimics 2011 and 2014 where you had a highly rated defenseman and a bunch of forward who were considered very good picks but not expected to be elite(and yes I know Draisaitl crushed that mark).
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: icelander25
boredmale said:
So Where would Schaeffer rate amongst other top defensemen of the past decade of so going into a draft?

Starting say at 2011, where does he rate amongst Adam Larsson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Aaron Ekblad, Noah Hanafin, Miro Heiskanen, Cal Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Bowan Bryan. I'll stop here since sample size is to small for 2020 and above.

Don't need a ranking of these guys, just something that says yeah he would be better than 25%, 50%, 75%, etc of them(or Player X, Y, Z were better than him going into the draft)
Click to expand...

Based on what we know now about those guys or based purely on freeze framing each guy at age 17/18 on draft night?

You’ll get a lot of different answers here and that’s a broad and long range to compare to. I’ll just say I think he’s bar none the best blueline “prospect” since Dahlin. On that list…I think he clears most of them as a draft night prospect aside from Dahlin and Jones, who was a potential #1 in an extremely high-end class. Obviously Ekblad went #1 next year in a draft that had Drai, Nylander and Reinhart among others - but IIRC that class wasn’t seen quite the same as the time and there were already murmurs that Ekblad was simply a man-child and was seen more as a Phaneuf type than another Doughty or Pietrangelo in a game that was evolving where elite mobility was key. Clearly Makar and Heiskinen turned out amazing but that draft with those two and Patrick and Hischier was a bit of a free for all. Makar was something of a gamble, albeit an exciting one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CheckingLineCenter and Bye Bye Blueston
BKarchitect said:
Based on what we know now about those guys or based purely on freeze framing each guy at age 17/18 on draft night?
Click to expand...

More so freeze framing it on their draft day. I know many people might point to Cal Makar, but I don't remember him getting that much hype in the build up to his draft, although I do remember Heiskanen getting some love as a possible top 2 pick.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jared Grayden
boredmale said:
More so freeze framing it on their draft day. I know many people might point to Cal Makar, but I don't remember him getting that much hype in the build up to his draft, although I do remember Heiskanen getting some love as a possible top 2 pick.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think Heiskinen is the most direct comparable but I think Schaefer has more buzz. Makar was definitely building big buzz by draft night, he was for sure a top 5 pick but not to the level he become. This draft reminds me a bit of 2017…definitely some high end talent but the depth gets wonky pretty quickly. Question is out of Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Martone - who ends up as Nolan Patrick? Lol.
 
BKarchitect said:
Yeah I think Heiskinen is the most direct comparable but I think Schaefer has more buzz. Makar was definitely building big buzz by draft night, he was for sure a top 5 pick but not to the level he become. This draft reminds me a bit of 2017…definitely some high end talent but the depth gets wonky pretty quickly. Question is out of Schaefer, Misa, Hagens, Martone - who ends up as Nolan Patrick? Lol.
Click to expand...

Or from an Islanders fan memory Dal Colle. At least Patrick you can claim he could have been something if it wasn't for injury troube. Dal Colle just sucked. lol

Just from my memory going into a draft the guys I remember with the most hype

Larsson - sort of the James Hagens of his draft lots of #1 hype for years but come 5-6 months before the draft people soured on him a bit

Jones - seem to be a late riser although was picked 4th(and 2 f the 3 teams above him made the right choice).

Hanafin, when you are constantly rated 3rd in a deep draft where the top 2 guys are Eichel and McDavid, yeah that is pretty high praise.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 7 (members: 5, guests: 2)

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom