D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft) | Page 22 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League

D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

D is always higher risk and you tend to get less value out of them on ELC's and their first long-term deal than comparable forwards. For example Tavares throughout his first 6 or so years in the league gave you more value than Hedman. Hedman ended up being the better player though. I've long thought when talking about the elite players at the top of the draft an 18 year old forward is as easy to project at a 20 year old D-man or a 22 year old or older goalie. How forwards tend to drive play and make players react to them makes it an easier adjustment. Hence why the easiest position in the NHL to break out at is wing, which is why we often see center prospects start their. Whereas a significant portion of defenders role is being reactive. Granted, elite D-men like Schaefer put pressure on teams defenses and force them to react like Q. Hughes, Makar, Dahlin ,etc.
You articulated my thoughts better than me. I look at like Power for example, or Nemec vs Cooley as examples that support this thought process. I think Schaefer is a better prospect than Power and Nemec, but its a whole lot of projecting needed for him, when you already have to project D to begin with.
 
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D is always higher risk and you tend to get less value out of them on ELC's and their first long-term deal than comparable forwards.

On the flip side you may get more value out a defenseman on their second "bridge deal". Dobson at 4M last season was a bargain and even this season where he dipped a bit he was well worth more than that

In general for defense it seems like the smallish puck moving defensemen hit their stride quicker then the bigger guys. It goes both ways though, I am guessing Portone might take a few more years to hit his stride over smaller skilled forwards
 
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D is always higher risk and you tend to get less value out of them on ELC's and their first long-term deal than comparable forwards. For example Tavares throughout his first 6 or so years in the league gave you more value than Hedman. Hedman ended up being the better player though. I've long thought when talking about the elite players at the top of the draft an 18 year old forward is as easy to project at a 20 year old D-man or a 22 year old or older goalie. How forwards tend to drive play and make players react to them makes it an easier adjustment. Hence why the easiest position in the NHL to break out at is wing, which is why we often see center prospects start their. Whereas a significant portion of defenders role is being reactive. Granted, elite D-men like Schaefer put pressure on teams defenses and force them to react like Q. Hughes, Makar, Dahlin ,etc.

We're gonna learn real quick about how patient Isles fans are. I would be all for letting Schaefer go back to Erie for a year, or to the NCAA. Let him get a full season in and continue to fill out. Maybe give him a cup of coffee at the end of next season before he makes the jump full time in 2026-27(depending on how things go next year).
 
On the flip side you may get more value out a defenseman on their second "bridge deal". Dobson at 4M last season was a bargain and even this season where he dipped a bit he was well worth more than that

In general for defense it seems like the smallish puck moving defensemen hit their stride quicker then the bigger guys. It goes both ways though, I am guessing Portone might take a few more years to hit his stride over smaller skilled forwards
Yeah, when you start factoring in cap-hit post-ELC it starts to get a lot more confusing. But, I will say the gap in salary between Tavares and Hedman on ELC's was like 1.5m or something but was also a year shorter than JT's deal. They likely provided comparable value on their 2nd contracts relative to cap hit, as Hedman only really started to match or surpass JT on impact by about year 4 of the deal. Tavares in year 1 and 3 of his 2nd contract was in Hart contention. Whereas Hedman didn't get a Norris nomination until year 5 of his 2nd deal (then immediately re-upped). Obviously, this is a very specific example. The Stamkos/Doughty discussion would be much closer.
 
I think it would be a massive mistake to play him in the NHL next season. Its OHL or NCAA. Without question.

He needs to stay healthy for a few years...NCAA might be good for him for 1-2 years...get some time in the gym etc.

it didn't hurt guys like Hughes or McAvoy etc.
 
I think it would be a massive mistake to play him in the NHL next season. Its OHL or NCAA. Without question.
I keep on seeing the NCAA as a possibility.

But is he committed anywhere? Is there reason to believe this is being set up?
 
He needs to stay healthy for a few years...NCAA might be good for him for 1-2 years...get some time in the gym etc.

it didn't hurt guys like Hughes or McAvoy etc.
Hughes and McAvoy made the jump after a year. Makar got 2 years though from what I remember. I wouldn't be opposed to that, I just have zero faith in an NHL franchise waiting 2 years on a 1st overall pick. I don't think that's happened since MA Fleury like 20+ years ago.
 
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Hughes and McAvoy made the jump after a year. Makar got 2 years though from what I remember. I wouldn't be opposed to that, I just have zero faith in an NHL franchise waiting 2 years on a 1st overall pick. I don't think that's happened since MA Fleury like 20+ years ago.
Pretty unique situation for Schaefer, being so young and missing almost a full season.
 
We're gonna learn real quick about how patient Isles fans are. I would be all for letting Schaefer go back to Erie for a year, or to the NCAA. Let him get a full season in and continue to fill out. Maybe give him a cup of coffee at the end of next season before he makes the jump full time in 2026-27(depending on how things go next year).
It’s juniors or college. We just got a gift, there hadn’t been any expectation that who we’d pick would be in the NHL immediately before the draft. It’s not like 2009, we can be patient.
 
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Hughes and McAvoy made the jump after a year. Makar got 2 years though from what I remember. I wouldn't be opposed to that, I just have zero faith in an NHL franchise waiting 2 years on a 1st overall pick. I don't think that's happened since MA Fleury like 20+ years ago.

Pretty unique situation for Schaefer, being so young and missing almost a full season.

Could be a situation where it's like 1.75 years depending on how his NCAA team does.

Owen Power got a year

He could go back for year 2 and once his NCAA team is out similar to McAvoy (except 1 additional year later). Schaefer's situation is just a little unique with the injuries etc, patience is important.
 
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It’s juniors or college. We just got a gift, there hadn’t been any expectation that who we’d pick would be in the NHL immediately before the draft. It’s not like 2009, we can be patient.
I hope so. I already know we're going to get the "if he was THAT good, wouldn't he be in the NHL right now?"....you know it's coming. Hopefully it's just a small fraction of the fanbase though.
 
We're gonna learn real quick about how patient Isles fans are. I would be all for letting Schaefer go back to Erie for a year, or to the NCAA. Let him get a full season in and continue to fill out. Maybe give him a cup of coffee at the end of next season before he makes the jump full time in 2026-27(depending on how things go next year).

If we draft Schaeffer no way in hell I want him playing pro next season. Given his age and the amount of games he played last year yeah he needs 1 more season in juniors at least
 
I’d love for both Schaefer and Misa to go the NCAA route for a year.

With Schaefer specifically, people will tend to say another year of junior is fine given his limited GP - and maybe it is. But I’ll tell you this much - limited games and all, when he shows up to Isles or Sharks camp, he’s going to make folks thing long and hard about where his 25-26 season is because he’s going to have the size, athleticism and skating that is going to absolutely stick out, even at the highest level.

I think a health Schaefer would absolutely toy with junior players next season. Probably most college players too but specifically with this new route potentially available, I think it would be an interesting next step. But, if you just him to have a season of continuity, maybe another year in Erie is fine too.
 
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NCAA makes the most sense IMO. Erie is going to be bad next year. They are losing some big names to begin with and if one of or both of Terrence/Spence goes NCAA route the roster will be even thinner.
 
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NCAA is always a possibility now. For any player not on an ELC. I haven't heard anything specifically about Schaefer, no.
I mean does anyone know how that actually works? I mean, are NCAA D1 teams holding back scholarships for CHL players? It's kind of an odd deal.
 
Chris Phillips(1996) might look like a terrible #1 pick but if you look at the rest of the draft it was the right choice
Chris Phillips to me will always be remembered as the least NHL looking player of all time. More-so than Kessel even
 
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Chris Phillips to me will always be remembered as the least NHL looking player of all time. More-so than Kessel even
I hate to rag on a guy's appearance, but you're not wrong. He literally looks like a construction foreman...

i
 
NCAA makes the most sense IMO. Erie is going to be bad next year. They are losing some big names to begin with and if one of or both of Terrence/Spence goes NCAA route the roster will be even thinner.
Plus what's really holding him back is that fact that he's about 15-20 lbs. too light from being an everyday NHL defenseman.

NCAA will help him train, less games, more off ice work.
 
, scouts say Schaefer was great at Hlinka cup but remember this was one of worst USA teams we have seen and same with prospects cup again NTDP .
I do think that Schaefer is the best prospect this year but there is some history after the "best" D prospects not exactly reaching their ceiling and with Schaefer, the sample size is obviously lower than most #1 picks.

You're looking at essentially one OHL year, last years U18s, two games of the U20s, and the prospects game in which the USAs team was complete dog shit.
Wheeler at Athletic said NCAA college is dramatically harder than the OHL and not even close . Look at Dickinson at London ripping up OHL but when he played world Juniors against college age he was flat out bad with no pace or offense . I like Schaefer but to have no concerns is ridiculous and he’s basically number one mainly because he didn’t play a lot .
 
To be clear, I’m not saying don’t draft him 1. I’m just saying the idea that he’s this crazy good #1 OA pick and can’t miss stud feels a little off to me.

The tools and the small sample weve seen are all top notch. Zero questions. But D are fickle man.
 
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