D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[boredmale]

I said this in a different thread but given our situation there is only 1 guy right for the job.

Rick Dudley

 

[boredmale]

Who is that, exactly? There is no Islanders front office right now.

In all honesty I am guessing the draft will go the way it goes no matter who is GM. I can't see a new GM coming in and replacing the staff with weeks to go before the draft, they will just use the current staff and have them do what they normally do

 

[coooldude]

In all honesty I am guessing the draft will go the way it goes no matter who is GM. I can't see a new GM coming in and replacing the staff with weeks to go before the draft, they will just use the current staff and have them do what they normally do

It makes sense for all the draft prep, but if ownership hasn't installed a GM by then, I can't believe they would just leave the 1OA pick to whoever the head of amateur scouting is. That's a big decision in a murky draft year. You would expect the ownership to decide: do we go with "consensus 1OA" with Schaefer, or do we go with a 1C who might be better for marketing/timing? Not saying it's smart, just saying it's possible.

If they don't have execs in place, then it kills any possibility of a trade, that's something I'm quite sure about.

 

[jtechkid68]

I mean, everyone has a good chance of getting it, but the kind of long term mono does (and can do - huge increase in risk for developing MS) may be one of the most underappreciated medical stories.

Totally unrelated - does anyone have insight about why Schaefer skated into the net at full speed? Did something happen that I didn't see? It looked like Toonces had a hold of his steering wheel.

It was a really bad play because of no self awareness where your are in the play verse being say pushed into it - it’s def big red flag in my view . Listen , I’m taking him at number one because he pops out as that good but it’s crazy that their’s really very little or zero negative discussion from scouts on a kid with limited showing - red flags ect that is number one pick is my view .

 

[pvr]

Oh and the mononucleosis.. who cares.

Everyone should care about mono. The Epstein-Barr Virus that causes infectious mononucleosis is the causative factor in the vast majority of Multiple Sclerosis cases. It isn’t as benign as once was previously thought.

 

[Jacob]

Everyone should care about mono. The Epstein-Barr Virus that causes infectious mononucleosis is the causative factor in the vast majority of Multiple Sclerosis cases. It isn’t as benign as once was previously thought.

The rate of developing MS in mononucleosis-infected people appears to be 0.0225%.

 

[SRBisles]

delete

 

[I am Bettman]

Are we actually calling a freak accident a red flag now? Would you prefer he wasn’t looking at the play but instead staring directly at the post to avoid hitting it? Let’s hope none of these players have ever been offside, that’s a red flag for their spatial awareness as well.

 

[frontsfan67]

Are we actually calling a freak accident a red flag now? Would you prefer he wasn’t looking at the play but instead staring directly at the post to avoid hitting it? Let’s hope none of these players have ever been offside, that’s a red flag for their spatial awareness as well.

People will say anything online. They’re the same ones that would say it’s not a red flag about Hagens having a down year in his draft year just because he’s playing NCAA and he’s small.

Guarantee any of the top 4 picks could produce like Hagens or better in the NCAA this year.

 

[saintunspecified]

The rate of developing MS in mononucleosis-infected people appears to be 0.0225%.

Right. As opposed to the rate of developing MS in non-EBV infected people, which is pretty much 0.
Hashimoto's thyroiditis is extremely common, typically caused by EBV, and is ... not fun. I've only had non-chronic thyroiditis (can't say what caused that, but EBV was the only detectable possible cause), but holy crap did that suck.

Just saying that it's a thing people scoff at (kissing disease, etc.) but it's a BFD.

 

[qcal1427]

I mean, this is just like the 2022 draft where Slafkovsky went 1 OA. The draft at the top is simply not that good, so teams are going to take the best overall package that's available. Slaf went there largely because of his international play and his playoffs in the LIIGA, which is about the same sample size as Schaefer's play this year.

I'm surprised there haven't been more Slafkovsky/Schaefer comparisons for this exact same reason lol

 

[jtechkid68]

Are we actually calling a freak accident a red flag now? Would you prefer he wasn’t looking at the play but instead staring directly at the post to avoid hitting it? Let’s hope none of these players have ever been offside, that’s a red flag for their spatial awareness as well.

I can’t recall a player that went shoulder first into a post without any other player involved that i forgot caused him to miss the whole season . I remember they said same with nolan patrick during his draft year - don’t worry about anything lol

 

[Rabid Ranger]

People will say anything online. They’re the same ones that would say it’s not a red flag about Hagens having a down year in his draft year just because he’s playing NCAA and he’s small.

Guarantee any of the top 4 picks could produce like Hagens or better in the NCAA this year.

What kind of numbers do you think Hagens would put up in the CHL? I guarantee he would crush it.

 

[frontsfan67]

What kind of numbers do you think Hagens would put up in the CHL? I guarantee he would crush it.

Less than Misa and Martone. Prob close to or a little higher than what Desnoyers put up which is 1.5ppg

Misa 2.06 and Martone 1.72

Guarantee Misa and Martone put up more than 11 goals in 37 games and 37 pts especially playing with Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault. Hagens was 5th on his own team in goals scored

 

[islesfan3913]

Are we actually calling a freak accident a red flag now? Would you prefer he wasn’t looking at the play but instead staring directly at the post to avoid hitting it? Let’s hope none of these players have ever been offside, that’s a red flag for their spatial awareness as well.

The issue is that he wasn’t just “looking at the play”, he was literally the main part of the play and was the player who put the puck on net, and then he just continued skating at full speed directly into the crossbar. Given his small sample size, I think it’s more than fair to use that play to question things like his hockey IQ and on ice awareness. He’s objectively a great skater, but with his tendency to roam around the ice and jump up on rushes, it makes sense to want to be sure he has the awareness to know what’s going on around him and what’s in his immediate surroundings.

 

[93LEAFS]

It makes sense for all the draft prep, but if ownership hasn't installed a GM by then, I can't believe they would just leave the 1OA pick to whoever the head of amateur scouting is. That's a big decision in a murky draft year. You would expect the ownership to decide: do we go with "consensus 1OA" with Schaefer, or do we go with a 1C who might be better for marketing/timing? Not saying it's smart, just saying it's possible.

If they don't have execs in place, then it kills any possibility of a trade, that's something I'm quite sure about.

while Leafs in 2015 had more structure than the Isles currently do. I believe that draft Hunter controlled the board (and banged the table for Marner over a trade down to target Provorov) while Dubas managed the trading aspect. Shanahan broke ties. In one situation Hunter won out (taking Marner) in another Dubas won out over Hunter (trading down with Konecny on the board). Significant reason those 2 didn't get a long. Then Lou was made GM post draft so it didn't happen again.

 

[boredmale]

What kind of numbers do you think Hagens would put up in the CHL? I guarantee he would crush it.

 

[majormajor]

I mean, this is just like the 2022 draft where Slafkovsky went 1 OA. The draft at the top is simply not that good, so teams are going to take the best overall package that's available. Slaf went there largely because of his international play and his playoffs in the LIIGA, which is about the same sample size as Schaefer's play this year.

Schaefer and Misa both go #1 if either were in the 2022 draft, they'd be miles ahead of Slafkovsky. I think Martone too, he's got a very projectable skillset, 6'3, and outscored the top junior scorers of 2022 (Wright and Savoie).

This year is closer to an average top end than it is to the abyss that was 2022.

What kind of numbers do you think Hagens would put up in the CHL? I guarantee he would crush it.

He absolutely would, everyone knows that.

But NHL teams would be more interested to know how each of these guys would look in NCAA than how each of them would look in the CHL.

 

[Jargon]

If any future NYI GMs are reading this I think Schaefer running into a goal post like an animated coyote is a huge red flag. I also bet he lost his entire collarbone and will have no way to physically hold his head up anymore.

Please pick someone else. Thanks.

 

[MattMartin]

If any future NYI GMs are reading this I think Schaefer running into a goal post like an animated coyote is a huge red flag. I also bet he lost his entire collarbone and will have no way to physically hold his head up anymore.

Please pick someone else. Thanks.

I dunno, I think they want him with the 1st pick. I think the Sharks should go bold and send us the #2 and next years 1st (unprotected) so they get their guy = )

 

[Grinner]

I mean, everyone has a good chance of getting it, but the kind of long term mono does (and can do - huge increase in risk for developing MS) may be one of the most underappreciated medical stories.

Totally unrelated - does anyone have insight about why Schaefer skated into the net at full speed? Did something happen that I didn't see? It looked like Toonces had a hold of his steering wheel.

Darn that cat

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

while Leafs in 2015 had more structure than the Isles currently do. I believe that draft Hunter controlled the board (and banged the table for Marner over a trade down to target Provorov) while Dubas managed the trading aspect. Shanahan broke ties. In one situation Hunter won out (taking Marner) in another Dubas won out over Hunter (trading down with Konecny on the board). Significant reason those 2 didn't get a long. Then Lou was made GM post draft so it didn't happen again.

Out of simple curiousity what are your thoughts on Dubas/Clark scouts/drafting vs. Hunter

Clark didn’t run our draft table last year so I’m intrigued.

 

[93LEAFS]

Out of simple curiousity what are your thoughts on Dubas/Clark scouts/drafting vs. Hunter

Clark didn’t run our draft table last year so I’m intrigued.

Don't want to derail this thread too much. So, I'll just say I never wanted Dubas as GM or Wes Clark hired. I will say though that Knies is the best pick we've made outside the top 10 in ages, so I'll give them credit on that. But a ton of bad also came with the Dubas era and I feel it set us back from the momentum we had at the time.

 

[TLEH]

I do think that Schaefer is the best prospect this year but there is some history after the "best" D prospects not exactly reaching their ceiling and with Schaefer, the sample size is obviously lower than most #1 picks.

You're looking at essentially one OHL year, last years U18s, two games of the U20s, and the prospects game in which the USAs team was complete dog shit.

 

[93LEAFS]

I do think that Schaefer is the best prospect this year but there is some history after the "best" D prospects not exactly reaching their ceiling and with Schaefer, the sample size is obviously lower than most #1 picks.

You're looking at essentially one OHL year, last years U18s, two games of the U20s, and the prospects game in which the USAs team was complete dog shit.

D is always higher risk and you tend to get less value out of them on ELC's and their first long-term deal than comparable forwards. For example Tavares throughout his first 6 or so years in the league gave you more value than Hedman. Hedman ended up being the better player though. I've long thought when talking about the elite players at the top of the draft an 18 year old forward is as easy to project at a 20 year old D-man or a 22 year old or older goalie. How forwards tend to drive play and make players react to them makes it an easier adjustment. Hence why the easiest position in the NHL to break out at is wing, which is why we often see center prospects start their. Whereas a significant portion of defenders role is being reactive. Granted, elite D-men like Schaefer put pressure on teams defenses and force them to react like Q. Hughes, Makar, Dahlin ,etc.