D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[John Pedro]

Don’t often see elite prospects/players lose themselves on the ice like he did here. Hoping he’s okay…

this kid would look good playing in front of matt murray

jokes aside, hope this is nothing serious and he doesn't miss any time

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Low spatial awareness play.

 

[Jacob]

The collision was violent but his reaction afterwards kind of makes me feel optimistic. I’ve seen reactions to dislocated shoulders and broken clavicles and usually the player shows a lot more pain and discomfort.

 

[Torspo21]

 

[BigRangy]

This makes the viewing experience significantly worse, Schaefer was really fun to watch out there.

I suppose now he joins the Jiricek club for DY players hurting themselves at the Juniors. Hopefully he can be back this season.

 

[jtechkid]

This makes the viewing experience significantly worse, Schaefer was really fun to watch out there.

I suppose now he joins the Jiricek club for DY players hurting themselves at the Juniors. Hopefully he can be back this season.

100% - that stinks because I think he has a chance of going# 1- generational dmen !

 

[MTU34]

Absolutely brutal. Having mono and a broken collarbone in your draft year is about as tough as it gets

 

[Hockeyfrilla]

Damn that sucks, fun player to watch!

 

[Jacob]

Broken collarbone. Just as I suspected.

 

[frontsfan67]

Before the injury I think most teams would lean him going first. Now with that injury- if Hagens does really well at this tournament that should just able seal it with Hagens

 

[wetcoast]

I think it’s pretty clear he will be in the NHL next season.

Depends on the team but he is already dominating the OHL in his draft year and looks capable.

Broken collarbone. Just as I suspected.

Man that really sucks as he was Canada's best player.

 

[wickedwitch]

That sucks. At least a collar bone should heal fully and not linger giving him issues in the future.

 

[wetcoast]

The lack of spatial awareness for a top end prospect is baffling. How do you not know where you/the net are.

Not as appalling as this post, you make it sound like he does this every game or something, it's a fluke play/injury and anyone who has watched him play any amount of time knows how well he sees the ice.

 

[wetcoast]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been. People have been talking about Hagens, Martone, and Misa as players in this range for years (certainly at least Hagens and Misa, and Martone has been talked about as top 5 for at least a year). These players have been under the spotlight for a long time, and have mostly done great everywhere they've played (can nitpick Misa from last year, for instance, but still on the whole we have years of data what these players are).

With Schaefer, he wasn't even being talked about as top 5 until the beginning of this season. That's partly because he wasn't playing at anywhere near this level last season. The beginning of last season people were questioning with Erie whether he was headed towards being an OHL bust. If you watched him play it was clear that wasn't going to happen, but other than the WHC17 last November where the competition was the same age and he wasn't playing on a bad team he struggled, relatively speaking, he wasn't playing anything like a top 2-3 pick. He got better as last season went on, but still not really the range of a top 2-3 pick. He was clearly outplayed by Hagens and Martone at the WJC18 last year.

He's not really went head to head with any of the top prospects at international tournaments, and outplayed them. If anything, it's been the opposite. It's questionable whether he's even outplayed Martone and Misa this season in the OHL. Even this season, he missed the beginning of it. It's been like two months for him playing this well as opposed to three or four for others. So there's a lack of a long track record. Unless you're just so sure he has the higher upside (and maybe that's the result come June, who knows?), it seems needlessly risky to consider him above these players.

Yes, he's younger than Hagens and Martone, and Misa had the extra year of junior, which inherently makes it a little easier. At the same time, just as people say it's an advantage to potentially have a little extra development runway by being younger, it's an advantage to have proven more. You cannot afford to get a top 5 pick wrong (especially 1OA). It's absolutely a relevant factor at 1 who has proven what for however long.

And even if you've come to the conclusion that he has such a higher ceiling than the others and it's worth it to take him despite the risks, we've seen over the years that it tends to be the wrong choice to take a defenseman 1OA (or at least to believe they've separated). In 2014, you have Ekblad at 1. You have Draisaitl 2 picks later. In 2018, Dahlin was viewed as this generational type of defenseman (not the generational that one poster is claiming Schaefer is) and on par with some of the best non-McDavid prospects of the last 10 years. We see with top 10 picks like Hughes, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Bouchard from 2018, that he's maybe in the running for best player, but it's definitely not clear cut that he's another level. In 2021, it was thought that Power was so much better than everyone else (I'd argue he was viewed higher than Schaefer on consensus, FWIW), and now we see that it's a more complicated picture. He's not the clear cut best of the top picks, even if maybe he's still in contention for it. So it hasn't really materialized when people start suggesting they can evaluate a defenseman to project that much better than the other players in the draft.

Schaefer is a very good player. He's the shiny new toy, but I think I'd have Hagens and Martone over him right now, and maybe Misa. They've just proven that much more and the upside is at least comparable. Drafting for need at 1 is also a good way for a GM to get themselves fired. You rarely get the chance to pick first. It's negligent to take anything other than whoever you think is the best player. It's a lot easier to replace a regular old team need than to replace the best player in an NHL draft (what you hope you get with the 1OA).

I respect your views and opinions but every year you seem to have a prospect like Rossi that you just seem to have blinders with.

Too bad about the injury because he was Canada's best player so far this tournament and still remains a huge prospect and if he drops at all the team getting him will feel like they won the lottery.

Also Dahlin was that good of a prospect and has played at Norris contention levels the last couple of seasons, some injuries aside.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Broken collarbone. Just as I suspected.

Thought the same thing immediately, what a disaster for the kid, at least it's not a knee or something that will hinder his career.

 

[57special]

Collarbones are usually 6-8 weeks.

 

[Wieters]

If the timeline is three months and he misses the rest of Erie’s season in addition to the WJC, it’s difficult to see that not affecting his chance at 1OA. If you’re going to draft a defenseman, you would need to have as much conviction as possible that their prospect profile is unimpeachable. That’s a more difficult conclusion to arrive at when you simply have less film on the prospect. Choosing him now requires a level of projection as to what he would have done since he doesn’t have the track record of the older prospects. He has been so good that you can still make that projection and no one would really blame you, but it is a tough sell to do that at 1OA specifically for any position other than a franchise 1C. I feel for the kid.

 

[crosbyshow]

I would still draft him first overall.

For me he is way better than anyone else including Hagens.

A top 3 d in the league very soon

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It’s probably 3 months, at most, if a broken collarbone.

Arguably, McQueen will probably miss more time. He’ll likely be back with 3-4 weeks left of the OHL regular season. His team has favorable math to making the playoffs. They’d have to be like the worst team in the OHL or very close to it the next three months for them to not make the playoffs, assuming they eventually pick things up once he returns. And then he should have an OHL playoffs. At worst, the team tanks without him, he gets 3-4 more weeks of OHL hockey this season, and then he gets a full WJC18.

Still has plenty of hockey left this season.

 

[Bender Duster]

The injury sucks. If he slides in the draft because of it, some team is going to get a steal!

 

[landy92mack29]

he's not sliding from this he'll still be the favourite for 1st. Pretty similar player to Byram except a little more calm/less physical

 

[jtechkid]

That stinks - kids had lot adversity last couple of years. watching today game - hey bob that shouldnt effect his draft status ? no it shouldnt . cant stand Mckenzie - flat out bad !

 

[Kingpin794]

I agree this isn't the type of injury that should effect him long term. It'd be one thing if it was a back problem, neck issues, knee problems. The only thing that might hurt his stock would be some recency bias. Don't see a guy for 3 months while someone else pops off. Hopefully he can come back for the playoffs. He has every tool. Scouts aren't going to forget that so his drop shouldn't be outside of the big 4.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

He had nudged past Hagens in my book but this injury will add a layer of concern that didn’t exist before. I think he goes no lower than 2, but he was never going to be a lock 1OA because Hagens is a special talent as well. Hagens is putting on a show at the WJC, as was Schaefer before the injury.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Collarbones are usually 6-8 weeks.

Bob is saying 2-3 months. Going to require surgery.