D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[QJL]

I think if you had Celebrini & Hagens side by side, that Celebrini will be noticeably bigger.
But, this thread is about Schaefer and he is making the case to be the best DMan in the draft for some time. He will be a monster next year at the WJC.

I think it’s pretty clear he will be in the NHL next season.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been. People have been talking about Hagens, Martone, and Misa as players in this range for years (certainly at least Hagens and Misa, and Martone has been talked about as top 5 for at least a year). These players have been under the spotlight for a long time, and have mostly done great everywhere they've played (can nitpick Misa from last year, for instance, but still on the whole we have years of data what these players are).

With Schaefer, he wasn't even being talked about as top 5 until the beginning of this season. That's partly because he wasn't playing at anywhere near this level last season. The beginning of last season people were questioning with Erie whether he was headed towards being an OHL bust. If you watched him play it was clear that wasn't going to happen, but other than the WHC17 last November where the competition was the same age and he wasn't playing on a bad team he struggled, relatively speaking, he wasn't playing anything like a top 2-3 pick. He got better as last season went on, but still not really the range of a top 2-3 pick. He was clearly outplayed by Hagens and Martone at the WJC18 last year.

He's not really went head to head with any of the top prospects at international tournaments, and outplayed them. If anything, it's been the opposite. It's questionable whether he's even outplayed Martone and Misa this season in the OHL. Even this season, he missed the beginning of it. It's been like two months for him playing this well as opposed to three or four for others. So there's a lack of a long track record. Unless you're just so sure he has the higher upside (and maybe that's the result come June, who knows?), it seems needlessly risky to consider him above these players.

Yes, he's younger than Hagens and Martone, and Misa had the extra year of junior, which inherently makes it a little easier. At the same time, just as people say it's an advantage to potentially have a little extra development runway by being younger, it's an advantage to have proven more. You cannot afford to get a top 5 pick wrong (especially 1OA). It's absolutely a relevant factor at 1 who has proven what for however long.

And even if you've come to the conclusion that he has such a higher ceiling than the others and it's worth it to take him despite the risks, we've seen over the years that it tends to be the wrong choice to take a defenseman 1OA (or at least to believe they've separated). In 2014, you have Ekblad at 1. You have Draisaitl 2 picks later. In 2018, Dahlin was viewed as this generational type of defenseman (not the generational that one poster is claiming Schaefer is) and on par with some of the best non-McDavid prospects of the last 10 years. We see with top 10 picks like Hughes, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Bouchard from 2018, that he's maybe in the running for best player, but it's definitely not clear cut that he's another level. In 2021, it was thought that Power was so much better than everyone else (I'd argue he was viewed higher than Schaefer on consensus, FWIW), and now we see that it's a more complicated picture. He's not the clear cut best of the top picks, even if maybe he's still in contention for it. So it hasn't really materialized when people start suggesting they can evaluate a defenseman to project that much better than the other players in the draft.

Schaefer is a very good player. He's the shiny new toy, but I think I'd have Hagens and Martone over him right now, and maybe Misa. They've just proven that much more and the upside is at least comparable. Drafting for need at 1 is also a good way for a GM to get themselves fired. You rarely get the chance to pick first. It's negligent to take anything other than whoever you think is the best player. It's a lot easier to replace a regular old team need than to replace the best player in an NHL draft (what you hope you get with the 1OA).

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I think it’s pretty clear he will be in the NHL next season.

Pretty clear? Not sure about that. Possible, but I think it's more likely he's not.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been. People have been talking about Hagens, Martone, and Misa as players in this range for years (certainly at least Hagens and Misa, and Martone has been talked about as top 5 for at least a year). These players have been under the spotlight for a long time, and have mostly done great everywhere they've played (can nitpick Misa from last year, for instance, but still on the whole we have years of data what these players are).

With Schaefer, he wasn't even being talked about as top 5 until the beginning of this season. That's partly because he wasn't playing at anywhere near this level last season. The beginning of last season people were questioning with Erie whether he was headed towards being an OHL bust. If you watched him play it was clear that wasn't going to happen, but other than the WHC17 last November where the competition was the same age and he wasn't playing on a bad team he struggled, relatively speaking, he wasn't playing anything like a top 2-3 pick. He got better as last season went on, but still not really the range of a top 2-3 pick. He was clearly outplayed by Hagens and Martone at the WJC18 last year.

He's not really went head to head with any of the top prospects at international tournaments, and outplayed them. If anything, it's been the opposite. It's questionable whether he's even outplayed Martone and Misa this season in the OHL. Even this season, he missed the beginning of it. It's been like two months for him playing this well as opposed to three or four for others. So there's a lack of a long track record. Unless you're just so sure he has the higher upside (and maybe that's the result come June, who knows?), it seems needlessly risky to consider him above these players.

Yes, he's younger than Hagens and Martone, and Misa had the extra year of junior, which inherently makes it a little easier. At the same time, just as people say it's an advantage to potentially have a little extra development runway by being younger, it's an advantage to have proven more. You cannot afford to get a top 5 pick wrong (especially 1OA). It's absolutely a relevant factor at 1 who has proven what for however long.

And even if you've come to the conclusion that he has such a higher ceiling than the others and it's worth it to take him despite the risks, we've seen over the years that it tends to be the wrong choice to take a defenseman 1OA (or at least to believe they've separated). In 2014, you have Ekblad at 1. You have Draisaitl 2 picks later. In 2018, Dahlin was viewed as this generational type of defenseman (not the generational that one poster is claiming Schaefer is) and on par with some of the best non-McDavid prospects of the last 10 years. We see with top 10 picks like Hughes, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Bouchard from 2018, that he's maybe in the running for best player, but it's definitely not clear cut that he's another level. In 2021, it was thought that Power was so much better than everyone else (I'd argue he was viewed higher than Schaefer on consensus, FWIW), and now we see that it's a more complicated picture. He's not the clear cut best of the top picks, even if maybe he's still in contention for it. So it hasn't really materialized when people start suggesting they can evaluate a defenseman to project that much better than the other players in the draft.

Schaefer is a very good player. He's the shiny new toy, but I think I'd have Hagens and Martone over him right now, and maybe Misa. They've just proven that much more and the upside is at least comparable. Drafting for need at 1 is also a good way for a GM to get themselves fired. You rarely get the chance to pick first. It's negligent to take anything other than whoever you think is the best player. It's a lot easier to replace a regular old team need than to replace the best player in an NHL draft (what you hope you get with the 1OA).

I mean this is all fair and there is nothing wrong with having questions about any prospect. But he is only in his 2nd season in the OHL. He was a 1OA pick in the OHL draft, and nobody was talking about him being a bust off of a slightly disappointing 16 year old season where the kid went through personal tragedies that could bring a grown man to their knees. I personally don't think it is fair to hold whatever on ice issues he had last year against him with what he did have going on....especially with how undeniably great he has been this season.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been. People have been talking about Hagens, Martone, and Misa as players in this range for years (certainly at least Hagens and Misa, and Martone has been talked about as top 5 for at least a year). These players have been under the spotlight for a long time, and have mostly done great everywhere they've played (can nitpick Misa from last year, for instance, but still on the whole we have years of data what these players are).

With Schaefer, he wasn't even being talked about as top 5 until the beginning of this season. That's partly because he wasn't playing at anywhere near this level last season. The beginning of last season people were questioning with Erie whether he was headed towards being an OHL bust. If you watched him play it was clear that wasn't going to happen, but other than the WHC17 last November where the competition was the same age and he wasn't playing on a bad team he struggled, relatively speaking, he wasn't playing anything like a top 2-3 pick. He got better as last season went on, but still not really the range of a top 2-3 pick. He was clearly outplayed by Hagens and Martone at the WJC18 last year.

He's not really went head to head with any of the top prospects at international tournaments, and outplayed them. If anything, it's been the opposite. It's questionable whether he's even outplayed Martone and Misa this season in the OHL. Even this season, he missed the beginning of it. It's been like two months for him playing this well as opposed to three or four for others. So there's a lack of a long track record. Unless you're just so sure he has the higher upside (and maybe that's the result come June, who knows?), it seems needlessly risky to consider him above these players.

Yes, he's younger than Hagens and Martone, and Misa had the extra year of junior, which inherently makes it a little easier. At the same time, just as people say it's an advantage to potentially have a little extra development runway by being younger, it's an advantage to have proven more. You cannot afford to get a top 5 pick wrong (especially 1OA). It's absolutely a relevant factor at 1 who has proven what for however long.

And even if you've come to the conclusion that he has such a higher ceiling than the others and it's worth it to take him despite the risks, we've seen over the years that it tends to be the wrong choice to take a defenseman 1OA (or at least to believe they've separated). In 2014, you have Ekblad at 1. You have Draisaitl 2 picks later. In 2018, Dahlin was viewed as this generational type of defenseman (not the generational that one poster is claiming Schaefer is) and on par with some of the best non-McDavid prospects of the last 10 years. We see with top 10 picks like Hughes, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Bouchard from 2018, that he's maybe in the running for best player, but it's definitely not clear cut that he's another level. In 2021, it was thought that Power was so much better than everyone else (I'd argue he was viewed higher than Schaefer on consensus, FWIW), and now we see that it's a more complicated picture. He's not the clear cut best of the top picks, even if maybe he's still in contention for it. So it hasn't really materialized when people start suggesting they can evaluate a defenseman to project that much better than the other players in the draft.

Schaefer is a very good player. He's the shiny new toy, but I think I'd have Hagens and Martone over him right now, and maybe Misa. They've just proven that much more and the upside is at least comparable. Drafting for need at 1 is also a good way for a GM to get themselves fired. You rarely get the chance to pick first. It's negligent to take anything other than whoever you think is the best player. It's a lot easier to replace a regular old team need than to replace the best player in an NHL draft (what you hope you get with the 1OA).

Schaefer was the best Canadian D at the U18 earlier this year despite being 18 months younger than most of the guys on that team.

As you well know, he had an incredibly difficult off-ice situation last year, which you must assume had an impact on his play as a 16 year old rookie OHL defenseman. He is 10 months younger than Martone and Hagens--if he were to play at this year's U18, which he is eligible for, I confidently predict he would outperform what Hagens and Martone did last May.

The most attractive thing about Schaefer is that every time I see him play, he is better than the time before. I cannot say that about Hagens and Martone, who are closer to finished products. The sky is the limit for Schaefer.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

He’s Him

 

[kmwtrucks]

Schaefer was the best Canadian D at the U18 earlier this year despite being 18 months younger than most of the guys on that team.

As you well know, he had an incredibly difficult off-ice situation last year, which you must assume had an impact on his play as a 16 year old rookie OHL defenseman. He is 10 months younger than Martone and Hagens--if he were to play at this year's U18, which he is eligible for, I confidently predict he would outperform what Hagens and Martone did last May.

The most attractive thing about Schaefer is that every time I see him play, he is better than the time before. I cannot say that about Hagens and Martone, who are closer to finished products. The sky is the limit for Schaefer.

from the little I see its not about #1 pick or being a # 1 D, 17 years 100 days with his size and skating compete hands and a bit of toughness he might be the best D in the league when he is 21-22.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been. People have been talking about Hagens, Martone, and Misa as players in this range for years (certainly at least Hagens and Misa, and Martone has been talked about as top 5 for at least a year). These players have been under the spotlight for a long time, and have mostly done great everywhere they've played (can nitpick Misa from last year, for instance, but still on the whole we have years of data what these players are).

With Schaefer, he wasn't even being talked about as top 5 until the beginning of this season. That's partly because he wasn't playing at anywhere near this level last season. The beginning of last season people were questioning with Erie whether he was headed towards being an OHL bust. If you watched him play it was clear that wasn't going to happen, but other than the WHC17 last November where the competition was the same age and he wasn't playing on a bad team he struggled, relatively speaking, he wasn't playing anything like a top 2-3 pick. He got better as last season went on, but still not really the range of a top 2-3 pick. He was clearly outplayed by Hagens and Martone at the WJC18 last year.

He's not really went head to head with any of the top prospects at international tournaments, and outplayed them. If anything, it's been the opposite. It's questionable whether he's even outplayed Martone and Misa this season in the OHL. Even this season, he missed the beginning of it. It's been like two months for him playing this well as opposed to three or four for others. So there's a lack of a long track record. Unless you're just so sure he has the higher upside (and maybe that's the result come June, who knows?), it seems needlessly risky to consider him above these players.

Yes, he's younger than Hagens and Martone, and Misa had the extra year of junior, which inherently makes it a little easier. At the same time, just as people say it's an advantage to potentially have a little extra development runway by being younger, it's an advantage to have proven more. You cannot afford to get a top 5 pick wrong (especially 1OA). It's absolutely a relevant factor at 1 who has proven what for however long.

And even if you've come to the conclusion that he has such a higher ceiling than the others and it's worth it to take him despite the risks, we've seen over the years that it tends to be the wrong choice to take a defenseman 1OA (or at least to believe they've separated). In 2014, you have Ekblad at 1. You have Draisaitl 2 picks later. In 2018, Dahlin was viewed as this generational type of defenseman (not the generational that one poster is claiming Schaefer is) and on par with some of the best non-McDavid prospects of the last 10 years. We see with top 10 picks like Hughes, Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Bouchard from 2018, that he's maybe in the running for best player, but it's definitely not clear cut that he's another level. In 2021, it was thought that Power was so much better than everyone else (I'd argue he was viewed higher than Schaefer on consensus, FWIW), and now we see that it's a more complicated picture. He's not the clear cut best of the top picks, even if maybe he's still in contention for it. So it hasn't really materialized when people start suggesting they can evaluate a defenseman to project that much better than the other players in the draft.

Schaefer is a very good player. He's the shiny new toy, but I think I'd have Hagens and Martone over him right now, and maybe Misa. They've just proven that much more and the upside is at least comparable. Drafting for need at 1 is also a good way for a GM to get themselves fired. You rarely get the chance to pick first. It's negligent to take anything other than whoever you think is the best player. It's a lot easier to replace a regular old team need than to replace the best player in an NHL draft (what you hope you get with the 1OA).

I think that concern can be addressed somewhat by the fact that he’s so young for his draft class. Based on his game right now (not his pedigree), I also think he has the highest floor of the four.

 

[Juxtaposer]

from the little I see its not about #1 pick or being a # 1 D, 17 years 100 days with his size and skating compete hands and a bit of toughness he might be the best D in the league when he is 21-22.

Exactly. I could see him being the Doughty/Heiskanen type leading his team to a Cup final at age 22.

The Sharks need this player so, so, so, so badly.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I mean this is all fair and there is nothing wrong with having questions about any prospect. But he is only in his 2nd season in the OHL. He was a 1OA pick in the OHL draft, and nobody was talking about him being a bust off of a slightly disappointing 16 year old season where the kid went through personal tragedies that could bring a grown man to their knees. I personally don't think it is fair to hold whatever on ice issues he had last year against him with what he did have going on....especially with how undeniably great he has been this season.

Actually, go back and read this thread from early last season. His slow start with Erie was definitely being talked about as a concern.

I don't think it should be framed as holding it against the guy to want to make sure you get a pick right in the NHL draft. Not as if we're talking about people shouting verbal abuse at him in the arena at games due to it or harassing him on social media. The fact that he doesn't have as long of a track record is a relevant factor to consider for the NHL draft. Think that's just common sense.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I think the biggest question with Schaefer is how quickly this rise has been.

He did go Number 1 in the OHL Draft his year. Granted he is same year as Misa who was ES the year before, but he didn't just come out of nowhere.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Actually, go back and read this thread from early last season. His slow start with Erie was definitely being talked about as a concern.

I don't think it should be framed as holding it against the guy to want to make sure you get a pick right in the NHL draft. Not as if we're talking about people shouting verbal abuse at him in the arena at games due to it or harassing him on social media. The fact that he doesn't have as long of a track record is a relevant factor to consider for the NHL draft. Think that's just common sense.

A concern is different then him being a bust. I never implied you were verbally abusing him or that anyone was. I just don't think him not lighting the world on fire in his 16 year old season after his billet mom and his actual mom passed away is all that surprising and honestly frames his season last year as pretty damn impressive in hindsight. I think he is undeniable when you watch what he actually does on the ice, like he could have come completely out of nowhere this year and the tools scream at you. I am not ready to say he is better/worse then Hagens yet, but I do think it is comfortably a two horse race right now between those two for me.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think that concern can be addressed somewhat by the fact that he’s so young for his draft class. Based on his game right now (not his pedigree), I also think he has the highest floor of the four.

At the same time, people said this about Laine compared to Matthews. Matthews had a longer track record yet was a lot comparatively older, and look what happened there. Laine obviously had the talent (that pop-up draft season or beyond as we've seen in the NHL), but what we didn't know at the time was that he's incredibly erratic and has had all types of problems, on-ice and off, that don't really go to the raw skills.

Yes, youth (being more so than others) can suggest a player who is maybe undervalued relative to the rest, but it can also suggest you simply don't know as much or have as much data relative to others either.

It's a variable. I personally think that's going to be one of the major risks with Schaefer. Regardless of how good this season is, we're probably talking about one very good season. We're probably talking about like 3 with the other candidates (maybe 2 for Misa).

 

[BrettM]

Although I do like Misa and can understand the hype with James Hagens, this "debate" amongst Schaefer and Porter Matone is asanine to me.In my viewings Schaefer triumphs over Martone as a prospect and should unquestionably be the first overall pick.

 

[Mathieukferland]

My guess is his tournament is probably done, I don’t know if it’s a good thing or a bad thing for his stick that his 1 game was a virtuoso performance against Finland, but it is only 1 game

 

[Jacob]

Tuning in late, what happened?

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I really don't understand this "hype" about Hagens' size. C'mon, he absolutely looks like a future elite first-line center. His size is normal for a modern center. Why on Earth should we be concerned about his physique when we have Jack Hughes and Connor Bedard? And why should we overrate the size factor for a QB defenseman when we have Quinn Hughes and Lane Hutson in the league? I just want to say that Matt and James are both fantastic players who could easily be franchise players for any NHL team. So GMs will simply pick based on what their team needs, whether it's a defender or a center.

Hagens is a bit slight. It's certainly a question anytime a smallerish player is drafted. Bedard's size has been issue whereas Celebrini isn't getting bullied in the NHL. It's something to thiunk about especially when you are deciding between Hagens and Schaefer for the #1 pick.

If the Sharks were win the lottery they'd go Schaefer because they need a #1 D man as Dickinson projects as a middle to bottom 1st line LD or a top 2nd line LD.

Hagens would be good but the Sharks already have Smith and Eklund who are on the smaller side.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Tuning in late, what happened?

Ran into the post on the rush with his left shoulder. Didn't look very good.

 

[hockeyGod]

Tuning in late, what happened?

Smoked the post at full speed with his shoulder. Then into the boards. Not good

 

[jtechkid]

hagens regains number one after thie tourny-

 

[antman12]

Tuning in late, what happened?

Don’t often see elite prospects/players lose themselves on the ice like he did here. Hoping he’s okay…

 

[mphmiles]

Don’t often see elite prospects/players lose themselves on the ice like he did here. Hoping he’s okay…

Yeah, I kept watching replays to see if he caught an edge at the worst time or something. Hope he's fine obviously, but what a bizarre play.

 

[QJL]

That was not a good injury. He’s going to be in bad shape.

Pretty clear? Not sure about that. Possible, but I think it's more likely he's not.

If he’s what you said - the best defensive prospect in that last several years... he’s going to the NHL. The only thing which can hold him back is injury which happened tonight.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

The lack of spatial awareness for a top end prospect is baffling. How do you not know where you/the net are.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The lack of spatial awareness for a top end prospect is baffling. How do you not know where you/the net are.

Chara didn't know where the stanchion was and didn't know it was Pacioretty when he threw his head violently into the stanchion, a mere game after he viciously two-handed Pacioretty on the wrist after an OT winner.. so I'm sure he will be fine!