D Matt Schaefer - Erie Otters, OHL (2025 Draft)

[BKarchitect]

I am dreaming of a young Blackhawks blueline anchored by Schaefer, Levshunov, Korchinski, Kaiser, Del Maestro, and Allen

Can you trade us old man Vlasic then, who at 23 is clearly the best piece on your blueline...

 

[BHFAN92]

Can you trade us old man Vlasic then, who at 23 is clearly the best piece on your blueline...

haha ya that was a major oversight.. I would envision Vlasic/Schaefer, Levshunov/Del Maestro, Korchinski/Allen with Kaiser being the 7th

 

[57special]

Very impressive last night. He is a really late birthday, so he has more time than most to fill out his frame. Only negative to that would be that it's either the CHL or NHL in his D+2 year, as the AHL can't be an option, but you cross that bridge when you come to it.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

If the Avs continue to get submarined by their goaltending there's a chance I could get to watch a Schaefer-Makar pairing for many years, and that would make me so happy.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Also doesn't hurt Hagens hasn't been what Celebrini was last year (so far).

I mean, he kind of has. Don’t know if you are just stat watching. If so, might want to add that Hagens simply has bad shooting luck and won’t shoot 2.6%. If he was shooting a normal percentage, he’d be like second in the country in points. Second in assists right now.

 

[57special]

If the Avs continue to get submarined by their goaltending there's a chance I could get to watch a Schaefer-Makar pairing for many years, and that would make me so happy.

Not enough puck for the two of them.

 

[Dominance]

I mean, he kind of has. Don’t know if you are just stat watching. If so, might want to add that Hagens simply has bad shooting luck and won’t shoot 2.6%. If he was shooting a normal percentage, he’d be like second in the country in points. Second in assists right now.

WARNING - thread derailment: Hagens is also the third best player on his own line and a lot of those assists you tout look to me like simple passes any 18 years old prospect could make to superior talents, while his only goal so far was on a play my mother could have finished.

Obviously we knew coming into this season and after watching Hagens demolish the U18s that his playmaking is elite, but these are the majority of the assists he has this year you’re crowing about:







^ saw this posted in the Hagens thread as some kind of spectacular pass…Perrault was sitting wide open 40 feet away with no defenseman within 5 feet





Tapped to Perrault for ENG on November 1.











TL;DR he’s collected almost all of his points on absolutely empty plays. Seriously, he has like one actually remotely impressive assist:

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

WARNING - thread derailment: Hagens is also the third best player on his own line and a lot of those assists you tout look to me like simple passes any 18 years old prospect could make to superior talents, while his only goal so far was on a play my mother could have finished.

Obviously we knew coming into this season and after watching Hagens demolish the U18s that his playmaking is elite, but these are the majority of the assists he has this year you’re crowing about:







^ saw this posted in the Hagens thread as some kind of spectacular pass…Perrault was sitting wide open 40 feet away with no defenseman within 5 feet





Tapped to Perrault for ENG on November 1.











TL;DR he’s collected almost all of his points on absolutely empty plays. Seriously, he has like one actually remotely impressive assist:

I highly disagree with that assertion that he’s the third best player on his own line.

He’s better than Leonard. Leonard has nowhere near the ability to make plays for teammates that Hagens does. He’s pretty much one dimensional offensively as someone who needs to be set up for chances. Routinely finishes way behind Smith and Perreault in points.

And just for the record, he hasn’t actually been on a line with Perreault and Leonard all year. Most common line mates? Sure, but it’s been maybe 60% of the season, so I don’t know why you’re going down that road. He’s not even comfortable with them yet too. Imagine what happens when he’s able to read off them with the knowledge that Smith did. It can be difficult to be placed on a line with two players who have great chemistry. Naturally, you aren’t going to see as much of the puck as you’d like.

I’d think outscoring every player on his team by 9 points in a 7 game WJC18 and all but 1 player by 11 in a 7 game WHC17 would prove he’s not a passenger. Don’t know how you’ve crafted that one up. As for how impressive his plays are, that’s subjective and does it even matter? Doesn’t producing matter the most? Some players just get the job done better than others.

 

[Dominance]

I highly disagree with that assertion that he’s the third best player on his own line.

He’s better than Leonard. Leonard has nowhere near the ability to make plays for teammates that Hagens does. He’s pretty much one dimensional offensively as someone who needs to be set up for chances. Routinely finishes way behind Smith and Perreault in points.

And just for the record, he hasn’t actually been on a line with Perreault and Leonard all year. Most common line mates? Sure, but it’s been maybe 60% of the season, so I don’t know why you’re going down that road. He’s not even comfortable with them yet too. Imagine what happens when he’s able to read off them with the knowledge that Smith did. It can be difficult to be placed on a line with two players who have great chemistry. Naturally, you aren’t going to see as much of the puck as you’d like.

I’d think outscoring every player on his team by 9 points in a 7 game WJC18 and all but 1 player by 11 in a 7 game WHC17 would prove he’s not a passenger. Don’t know how you’ve crafted that one up. As for how impressive his plays are, that’s subjective and does it even matter? Doesn’t producing matter the most? Some players just get the job done better than others.

I’m not going to derail the Schaefer thread further. I haven’t actually watched Hagens play this year which is why I didn’t pass broader judgment than my opinion on his highlights to date. The point was just to show there’s some reason to doubt Hagens is as good as Celebrini or a shoo-in for 1OA today.

 

[Buttonwood]

I mean, he kind of has. Don’t know if you are just stat watching. If so, might want to add that Hagens simply has bad shooting luck and won’t shoot 2.6%. If he was shooting a normal percentage, he’d be like second in the country in points. Second in assists right now.

It's not a slight on Hagen's to say Celebrini was a more impressive prospect at this point. I'm a believer in shooting regression and sure Hagen's will string together better production for the reasons you mentioned. That said, as a even younger freshman Celebrini was a NHL talent shooter that didn't have the statistical gravity of being a NCAA talent shooter playing in the NCAA - Hagens does.

That's where I sit now, he does have the chance to re-assert himself at the clear cut top of the crop, especially at WJC, but with some of Schaefer's qualities (and being 10 months younger than Hagens) I think the door is open and think Schaefer might be guy that would be 2nd most likely to be #1 pick to Hagens, lottery dependent. If Celebrini was in this class, I don't know how much I would have moved off of him being a certain #1 (yes some recency bias).

 

[57special]

JFC, there is a Hagens thread to post on.

 

[MNRube]

I am dreaming of a young Blackhawks blueline anchored by Schaefer, Levshunov, Korchinski, Kaiser, Del Maestro, and Allen

meanwhile the Fs are the worst in the NHL. At what point will CHI invest in getting Bedard some help

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

It's not a slight on Hagen's to say Celebrini was a more impressive prospect at this point. I'm a believer in shooting regression and sure Hagen's will string together better production for the reasons you mentioned. That said, as a even younger freshman Celebrini was a NHL talent shooter that didn't have the statistical gravity of being a NCAA talent shooter playing in the NCAA - Hagens does.

That's where I sit now, he does have the chance to re-assert himself at the clear cut top of the crop, especially at WJC, but with some of Schaefer's qualities (and being 10 months younger than Hagens) I think the door is open and think Schaefer might be guy that would be 2nd most likely to be #1 pick to Hagens, lottery dependent. If Celebrini was in this class, I don't know how much I would have moved off of him being a certain #1 (yes some recency bias).

Hypothetically, does he have to be literally just as good as Celebrini? Seems to me like there’s room to be a little worse and still have a great season that doesn’t damage the presumptive 1OA stock you seem to be stating he’s doing something to lose.

 

[57special]

Again,
There is a Hagens thread to post thoughts about Hagens on. This is the Schaefer thread.

 

[Mathieukferland]

WARNING - thread derailment: Hagens is also the third best player on his own line and a lot of those assists you tout look to me like simple passes any 18 years old prospect could make to superior talents, while his only goal so far was on a play my mother could have finished.

Obviously we knew coming into this season and after watching Hagens demolish the U18s that his playmaking is elite, but these are the majority of the assists he has this year you’re crowing about:







^ saw this posted in the Hagens thread as some kind of spectacular pass…Perrault was sitting wide open 40 feet away with no defenseman within 5 feet





Tapped to Perrault for ENG on November 1.











TL;DR he’s collected almost all of his points on absolutely empty plays. Seriously, he has like one actually remotely impressive assist:

To be fair outside of 1 goal against Slovakia his highlight reel at the u18 wasn’t exactly something that would make your jaw drop, the strength of his game lies in the details that don’t show up in a highlight package; taking the right angle to a puck, drawing defenders a certain way with his before making a pass to space, etc


I think I take Schaefer at the moment but we will see a direct comparison in Ottawa

 

[Buttonwood]

Hypothetically, does he have to be literally just as good as Celebrini? Seems to me like there’s room to be a little worse and still have a great season

I agree with this 100%

that doesn’t damage the presumptive 1OA stock you seem to be stating he’s doing something to lose.

This was my only point, part of Schaefer's threat is the fact he looks like the best D prospect by a good margin (as of now). I'm not saying it's right, but that Dman scarcity is going to put him on a pedestal in some orgs, especially if they don't have a projected #1. If Hagens was in the 2024 class instead of Celebrini and finished a little worse than his season in that hypothetical, I don't think any of those guys challenge him - Schaefer is different if he can keep building on this start.

 

[Leviathan899]

I feel like the sharks are going to be bottom 5 the next 2 drafts.

I havnt looked forward to the 26 draft, but are there dmen projected in the top 3-5?
I feel like if the answer is no, or a hesitant maybe... you prob just take the stud on the back end when you can get them... considering you already have some studs up front.

the sharks made out like bandits getting the option to take Dickinson or Buium(who were the top 2 dmen in last years draft imo) last year.

Keaton Verhoef looks like a potential top 3-5 pick and is a big RHD. He was impressive at the u17’s this season. I’d take him over Hensler based on pure potential right now, and he’d be my #2 ranked D this season. Schaefer, Smith, Aitcheson, Fiddler, Reid and Hamilton could all legit be in the top 10 D for this year.

 

[Leviathan899]

You don't have to convince me, I'm his biggest proponent. I think he's fully capable of playing a low-event bottom pairing role if that's what they ask of him.

As a fan of a team hoping to draft him, I hope he doesn't make it.

I’d be surprised if he isn’t one of Canada’s best players by the end of the tournament. He’ll probably end up being top pair D if they take him, he’s that solid.