Colangelo sure, but I think Gauthier is bound for the NHL, whether it’s a 3rd line role or Top 6 that is uncertain.
Prospect Info: Cutter Gauthier
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Colangelo sure, but I think Gauthier is bound for the NHL, whether it’s a 3rd line role or Top 6 that is uncertain.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Zegras spent time in the AHL at that age, and I think McTavish would have benefited from time there last year as well. Verbeek has proven to simply be an outright liar about preferring to “overcook” prospects in the minors, but the rookie wall is real. Let them start the season here, but I don’t think Gauthier has proven beans about deserving a top 6 role until he proves his game translates more than the current options, or that he will be the one guy who won’t fade come the new year.
I know we all want entertainment, but that’s not the same as ideal player development.
With players that good, though, I'm not sure that the AHL provides much development. I think Colangelo most likely could use some time there. But over the last 30 years, there have been six freshmen or sophomores to win the Hobey Baker. Only one of them spent significant time in the AHL - Ryan Miller, a goalie. One of them was 5'6 undrafted Ryan Duncan who really never played in North America. The other four (Caufield, Makar, Eichel, and Kariya) all jumped pretty much directly to the NHL with minimal AHL time and were successful.
It's a small sample size, I know, but chances are good that Gauthier is not going to need much seasoning in San Diego.
70sSanO
Registered User
Gauthier brings a non-playing dynamic that almost ensures playing in the NHL, at least initially.
He may spend some time in the AHL if he struggles early on. But I think PV wants him signed and happy he did. This is Verbeek’s coup in winning the Gauthier sweepstakes.
John
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I thought the Hobey Baker award didn't include the playoff productions? Jan 26th was the voting process for the 84 Hobey Baker candidates. The top-10 finalists were announced March 20th.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
Caufield played 67 games with 23G 20A -24 in 16:40 TOI. Absolutely not top line, and 8th for forwards in overall TOI/G (distant 6th for ESTOI/G)
Makar isn’t a forward.
Eichel is on another level, I don’t think he’s a reasonable comparable.
Kariya had 124 points in 52 games at Maine. C’mon.
Fantilli hasn’t lit up the world this year. 47 GP, 12G 15A -21, 15:43 TOI/G, again that 6-7 slot.
Again, I’m not saying he won’t be in the NHL, or shouldn’t be in the NHL. I am saying that 30-40 points is a reasonable ceiling to expect, and that he should not be pencilled in on the top line, and should probable start on the 3rd and work his way up (or down) as his play indicates.
Nothing in my post said anything about where he'd be in the lineup. I just don't think it's likely he'll need any time in the AHL to develop, which is what your post indicated. ("Zegras spent time in the AHL at that age, and I think McTavish would have benefited from time there last year as well. ")
The Ducks don't really have a top line at this point. I guess Killorn-Carlsson-Terry is it, but they don't really play or produce like a top line yet. Gauthier could probably slot in on any of the Ducks three non-Johnston forward lines and hopefully produce at a middle six level. It just depends on fit and chemistry with other forwards. I just think it's really unlikely he'll need or get much time in the AHL.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Different GM's have different ways of developing prospects.
Murray took the slower approach, provided injuries didn't rush the prospects like Steel and Lundy in 2018-19 season. Z and Drysdale did well in the AHL, which the latter winning AHL rookie of the Month. McTavish could have stayed with the NHL club in 2021-22, but we had too many forwards who were set to return from injury to keep Mac with the NHL club. Mac was still 18-years old and not eligible for the AHL.
Verbeek is doing things differently, but not so much with Mac. I keep forgetting that Mac didn't turn 20 years old until Jan 30, 2023 - which made him not eligible for the AHL last year. He was too good to return to Juniors, but there was an option to go play in the NL-A in Switzerland. Going to the NHL, I think Verbeek did Mac good by starting him off at 2LW. It took only 10 games for Mac to make the switch to center, albeit 4C and a 6:31 debut.
This season, Verbeek went Verbeek-wild. Carlsson was gifted a 1C position, Minty started in the NHL, and Luneau was a special project in the NHL. And then there was LaCombe, who looked the most ready of the four at the rookie and training camp. Out of those four, Luneau was the only one who couldn't stay in the AHL.
Next season, I can see Verbeek pushing Zell, Luneau, Cutter, and Coangelo to the NHL level. Colangelo probably could start in the AHL, but his little four game stint had him at a point per game average - still a small sample - might prompt the NHL promotion. If we land Celebrini, then Colangelo goes to the AHL. IMO, this is consistent with Verbeek trying to shorten the reset rebuild time.
The NHL is Verbeek's development league.
Another 30 mins or so we will know the outcome of the HB.
Ducks DVM
sowcufucakky
My post said Top 6, which indicates that the player could play on the top line.
Getzlaf and Perry spent time in the AHL in their D+2 seasons. It’s not an insult to say that 20 year old players are rarely legit top 6 ready.
I understand it's not an insult. It's just not likely for Gauthier, given his profile and pedigree combined with the Ducks' situation.
CrazyDuck4u
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airforceones25
Registered User
Celebrini.. Bucci spilled the beans on the telecast last night. He thought Cutter should have won. Hype goes a long ways. Celebrini may ultimately become the better player but he was not this year in college hockey that is. All good, maybe this puts a chip on Cutter's shoulder. He already shows up in big games but great players always hold on to the little stuff. Good for us. Hopefully! Ha
I think Cutter is NHL ready. Should we be expecting him to put up 30-30-60 right out of the gate? No. There will obviously be an adjustment period and chemistry to build and those numbers, I think, only happen if he builds natural chemistry with one of our playmaker out of the gate.
But I think unless he seriously struggles, the NHL is the best place for him to develop and take the next step. I'll reserve judgment on Colangelo.
Dr Johnny Fever
RIP Grizzly 399
That’s ok. We’ll draft Celebrini and at rookie camp he and Cutter can duke it out for rookie camp MVP.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Wouldn't that be crazy. Before the season started, Anaheim was lacking in scoring forwards. Soon, there could be a possibility of having three in LW Cutter, RW Colangelo, and C Celebrini. The C-Team. ::: queue the A-team song :::
Dr Johnny Fever
RIP Grizzly 399
Anaheim4ever
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Gauthier/Carlsson/Terry
Zegras/McTavish/Celebrini
Vatrano/Strome/Colangelo
Nesterenko/Lundestrom/Johnston
Mintyukov/Gudas
Zellweger/Fowler
Vakk/Luneau/LaCombe
Dostal
Gibson
Swap Strome and Celebrini and you got a Italiano line of Vatrano/Celebrini/Colangelo.
Zegras/McTavish/Celebrini
Vatrano/Strome/Colangelo
Nesterenko/Lundestrom/Johnston
Mintyukov/Gudas
Zellweger/Fowler
Vakk/Luneau/LaCombe
Dostal
Gibson
Swap Strome and Celebrini and you got a Italiano line of Vatrano/Celebrini/Colangelo.
caliamad
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- Mar 14, 2003
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Unless you want to keep giving up 40+ shots a game and have the league worst pk and goal differential, the only thing we should be focused on is defense. And I mean both forwards and defensemen.
The scoring will come when we have the pick we aren’t chasing the whole shift, but we need people who can play the tough minutes and win tough battles. You don’t want your young stars doing that in an 82 game season.
The scoring will come when we have the pick we aren’t chasing the whole shift, but we need people who can play the tough minutes and win tough battles. You don’t want your young stars doing that in an 82 game season.
CrazyDuck4u
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robbieboy3686
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The top 6 right shot winger our Gm says he wants. I hope he’s at least avg defensively as well. I have a feeling this player is going to be the Exact player we’ve always needed. Have a great feeling about this player
When team is focused on defense and have no creative players it starves just like this for someone who can create offense. We spent much of the past decade like that, Imo
I agree us needing to get more solid on D tho, but looking at our +/- stats, often our best scorers are our worst defensive players
Our d are going to get better every year for several years simply for the fact that they are so young. We have a ton of talent in the system. I still would love a top pairing d but Celebrini would be a huge win for the team
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
With respect to Shot Against (SA) and Goal Differential (GD), you're confusing last year with this year. Anaheim has vastly improved in SA and GD this year.
- Shots Against
- Last year: 39.1 SA/game (3207 SA in 82 games)
- This year: 32.6 SA/game (2605 SA in 80 games)
| Ducks | 80 Games | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | ES GF | ES GA | ESGD | PP GF | PK GA | Shorties | . | GF | GA | GD |
| 2022-23 | 166 | 255 | -89 | 35 | 74 | 1 | 202 | 329 | -127 | |
| 2023-24 | 147 | 202 | -55 | 41 | 89 | 11 | 199 | 291 | -92 | |
| 24 comp | -19 | 53 | 36 | 6 | -15 | 10 | -3 | -38 | 35 |
The biggest factor for the improved GD is the ES defense. According to Natural Stat Trick, at 5v5 and ES GA, we're ranked 21st. That's not far away from the middle of the league! We've improved by 53 ES GA, but our PK unit and penalty taking have drugged the total GD down plenty! What also is holding the GD back is our ES offense!
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PK and Penalties
========================
Our problem lies within our ES offense, PP, and PK. Because our SA and GD has improved, then we can surmise that our PK coaching could be the culprit. When we compare it last year's team, whose blue line was significantly worse, this year's team efficiency is running similarly. That's mostly on the coaching side for our lack of PP efficiency.
- PK
- Last year (82 games)
- PK Eff = 72.14 (31st)
- TSH = 280
- PK GA = 78 GA
- This year (80 games)
- PK Eff = 72.45 (31st)
- TSH = 329
- PK GA = 89 GA
- Last year (82 games)
When we compare in-season splits between the two PK units, This year's PK has deteriorated since the start of the season. New PK coach Thompson is lost on how to improve the PK unit as the league has figured out his PK defense. OTOH, last year's PK unit learned to improve until the TDL disrupted his unit.
| Ducks 2022-23 | PK | Splits | Stothers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | PK GA | TSH | PK Eff |
| Total | 82 | 78 | 280 | 72.1% |
| 1 to 25 | 25 | 31 | 89 | 65.2% |
| 26 to 49 | 24 | 17 | 81 | 79.0% |
| 50 to 61 | 12 | 10 | 44 | 77.3% |
| 62 to 82 | 21 | 20 | 66 | 69.7% |
| Ducks 2023-24 | PK | Splits | Thompson | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | PK GA | TSH | PK Eff |
| Total | 80 | 89 | 323 | 72.4% |
| 1 to 25 | 25 | 22 | 110 | 80.0% |
| 26 to 49 | 24 | 22 | 91 | 75.8% |
| 50 to 62 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 66.0% |
| 63 to 77 | 18 | 29 | 75 | 61.3% |
Possible Solution: New PK coach
The other aspect of our PK unit is the volume of TSH opportunities, which this year's team has the most TSH opportunities in the league and far more than last year's team. That points to team discipline, or there lack of. That's all on the coaching, and indirectly, the GM.
Verbeek and Cronin are on the same page of making the team work even harder to where the team looks fatigued in game. That fatigue can often lead to penalties. Also, the GM and HC make our players play through injuries. If our players aren't 100%, then they'll induce more penalties because they cannot keep up with the game. The org got fined for forcing prospects into unofficial team workouts over the summer.
Possible Solution: I'm thinking the GM and HC need to dial it back a notch because the evidence points to whatever they're doing, they're not doing it well.
==================
the PP
==================
Our PP is putrid as it relies upon individual players to shine instead of players shining within the system. The table below shows the erratic nature of our PP.
| Ducks 2023-24 | PP | Splits | Brown | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Set | Games | PPG | PPO | PP Eff |
| Total | 80 | 41 | 232 | 17.7% |
| 1 to 25 | 25 | 18 | 81 | 22.2% |
| 26 to 49 | 24 | 10 | 71 | 14.1% |
| 50 to 62 | 13 | 8 | 35 | 22.9% |
| 63 to 77 | 18 | 5 | 45 | 11.1% |
Possible Solution: New PP coach. Also, adding more offensive forwards. The addition of Cutter, and possibly Colangelo, can improve the depth quality of PK unit.
=============
ES Offense
=============
How can last year's ES GF be better than this year's ES GF?
This year's ES offense is producing worse than last year's ES offense. Injuries hit both last year and this year's team, so injuries cannot be a significant factor. Although, this year's team does have a lot more talent and talent depth with the additions of forwards Killorn and Carlsson as well as the wealth of our talent on the blue line, including the waiver addition of RD Lindstrom.
The culprit is HC Cronin's offensive scheme, which includes defensive breakouts.
Possible Solution:
Our ES offense needs a makeover. I don't like how we're trying to stretch the ice when we win the puck in the D-zone b/c our forwards just fly and leave our d-man puck handler on an island with limited good passing outlets. We need to contour of offense based upon the talent personnel. Mac is good with the dump-n-chase, but Carlsson, Terry, and Z are not. Cutter has the speed and body for the dump-n-chase, so he could help Z.
===========
Conclusion
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We are a vastly young and developing team that needs experience as we are set to finish with the 3rd worst record in the league, and potentially one less point than last year's team. Going all in on FA this year seems amiss b/c we're still building stepping stones for several youths, including adding youths full-time to the club in F Cutter, RD Luneau, LD/RD Zell, and, maybe, RW Colangelo.
There is a lot of talent on the team, but, imo, it's being hampered by coaching. Our coaching has sucked the life out of our finesse forwards in Terry and Z, based upon the past two years' productions. That also implies that Carlsson's production was held down too. When our coaching staff says we have no answers or blames the players often, then, Anaheim, we have a problem. Yet, HC Cronin isn't going anywhere. We should replace our PP and PK coaching.
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