Current state of Sens roster formation

[armani]

Damn, you're right. I thought we still had that 2nd round pick. Damn you Dorion!

Easy now, Pierre maybe spitting on the pizza he is making for you and your gator friend.

 

[thinkwild]

I think of Tampa's great 3rd line of Goodrow, Coleman, Gourde, and they were considered key to winning a Cup while all were getting $1-$2 mil. But as soon as they became eligible for $4-$5 mil, they are no longer core. I think of Grieg and Pinto as core if i am willing to keep them when they get the big salaries. Maybe Norris has me more hesitant than most to give that core designation to them yet. Key pieces now for sure. Hopefully we will be able to afford them when they are core.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I actually don't even have many qualms about this roster other than goaltending and Hamonic getting any deployment at all. Fix those two things and I think we see a decent improvement.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Replace Korpisalo ( buyout if need be) He sucks badly and we aren’t winning with him IMO.

Ideally we replace the 4th line with long-term veterans that have been around the block Perry /Okposo types not only do we upgrade the line but also archive the goal of adding leadership to our young roster.

Find at least 2 RD that play a hard game.

I don’t think we can afford to just make a change here and there and remain patient lots of dead weight on this roster that needs fixing.

Guys I don’t really care to see next year:

Korpisalo
Hamonic
Kastelic
Kelly
Katchouk
Chychrun ( can’t afford him long-term)
Boko
MacEwen
Forsberg ( as a backup for 1 year isn’t the end of the world mind you)

I think our core needs a lot more support before we can start judging them fully.

 

[Micklebot]

Replace Korpisalo ( buyout if need be) He sucks badly and we aren’t winning with him IMO.

Ideally we replace the 4th line with long-term veterans that have been around the block Perry /Okposo types not only do we upgrade the line but also archive the goal of adding leadership to our young roster.

Find at least 2 RD that play a hard game.

I don’t think we can afford to just make a change here and there and remain patient lots of dead weight on this roster that needs fixing.

Guys I don’t really care to see next year:

Korpisalo
Hamonic
Kastelic
Kelly
Katchouk
Chychrun ( can’t afford him long-term)
Boko
MacEwen
Forsberg ( as a backup for 1 year isn’t the end of the world mind you)

I think our core needs a lot more support before we can start judging them fully.

I thought Kastelic Kelly and Kachouk finished the year really strong, they seemed to have good chemistry, so I'd be ok with them back, they are all cheap too so that means we can allocate more to other spots that are more important.

MacEwen was fine as a 13th forward imo but did little as an enforcer, Boko was a good AHL player, I'd be happy to keep him for that role.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I thought Kastelic Kelly and Kachouk finished the year really strong, they seemed to have good chemistry, so I'd be ok with them back, they are all cheap too so that means we can allocate more to other spots that are more important.

MacEwen was fine as a 13th forward imo but did little as an enforcer, Boko was a good AHL player, I'd be happy to keep him for that role.

Small sample size tho I don’t trust that group I think they are fringe NHL players that are all easily replaceable.

I much prefer a different look.

Keeping majority of the roster intact after coming off the season we just had is asking for issues IMO.

 

[Micklebot]

Small sample size tho I don’t trust that group I think they are fringe NHL players that are all easily replaceable.

I much prefer a different look.

Keeping majority of the roster intact after coming off the season we just had is asking for issues IMO.

I guess for me, it's upgrade if something comes available but don't change for the sake of change.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I guess for me, it's upgrade if something comes available but don't change for the sake of change.

Interesting. In net, that's exactly what I am hoping for. Change for the sake of change. We know it can't get worse, and I don't expect better from existing personnel.

Derpa derpa. Duh, you guys were talking 4th line. I don't want change for sake of change there, but am nervous about bringing back the exact same group.

 

[DanyHeatley]

Drop/release or trade for assets:
Norris
Forsberg
Hamonic
Kelly
Katchouk
Kubalik

FA signing:
Tarasenko (3x 4.5M)
Henrique (3x 2M)
Tanev (3 x 4M)
Dumba (1 x 3M)

Acquire a #1 goalie:
Ullmark (trade)? 7th oa?
Driedger
Kahkonen
Hart
Samsonov

Soogard as backup

Tkachuk - Stutzle - Giroux
Tarasenko - Pinto - Batherson
Joseph - Henrique - Grieg
Crookshank - Kastelic - Macewen

Sanderson - Zub
Chabot - Tanev
Chychrun - Dumba

JBD, Kleven, Jarventie, Sokolov

TRADE/FA goalie
Korpisalo

 

[Cosmix]

I don't think we necessarily need a goalie. I still believe in Korpi's capability. I've lost my patience regarding Forsberg.

If we could upgrade to a proven NHL goaltender with a positive record, I would get rid of Korpisalo; I doubt we can at affordable cost.

However, getting a top 4 RD who can play a physical strong defensive game might improve the save percentage of our goaltenders.

I am also hoping that Green will preach defence first and require the forwards to play a strong defensive game in all 3 zones including covering a man in our D zone and blocking shots instead of watching the puck. That will also help improve the save percentage.

 

[Cosmix]

I thought Kastelic Kelly and Kachouk finished the year really strong, they seemed to have good chemistry, so I'd be ok with them back, they are all cheap too so that means we can allocate more to other spots that are more important.

MacEwen was fine as a 13th forward imo but did little as an enforcer, Boko was a good AHL player, I'd be happy to keep him for that role.

I like Kelly because he plays a smart game on the PK.
Kastelic must bring physicality to every shift; otherwise find someone else who will do that.
Kachouk should be replaced with someone better and bigger.

 

[SENATOR]

I would sign Daniil Isayev Daniil Isayev - Stats, Contract, Salary & More in a heart bit from KHL. Major, major upgrade, as skilled as Shesterkin. I looked at him and he impressed me immensely! He could step right in. He is already developed and young.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Without Zub, we have literally the worst right-side on D in the entire league.

Will deliver:
Norris, Korpisalo, Forsberg, Hamonic

Best offer (pickup only):
Chychrun/Chabot

Make me an offer and I'll consider it:
Brannstrom, JBD, Joseph

You can't afford it:
Pinto, Batherson, Giroux, Chychrun/Chabot

Hanging up:
Sanderson, Brady, Zub, Greig, Stutzle

 

[Beech]

anatomy of failure. How you get yourself into trouble and cannot get out.

2015​
1st	Chabot	Sold as a Norris contender. Is injury prone and a defensive question mark
1st	White	Sold as Patrice Bergeron Junior. Is out of the league
2nd	Gagne	Sold as a stud power forward. Is/Was in jail
2nd	Chlapic	Sold as a stud 2rd line center. Is in Europe , mid level player
2016​
1st	Brown	Sold as the stud #1 center of the future, is no where
2nd	Dahlen	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line point producer, is no where
2017​
1st	Bowers	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, is no where
2nd	Formenton	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, may end up in jail
2018​
1st	Tkachuk	Sold as and had delivered (GOLD star)
1st	JBD	Sold as a future top 4 D, is a 6/7 D
2nd	Tychonick	Sold as a future 5-7 D, is no where
2019​
1st	Thomson	Sold as a future top 4 D, just left for Europe
2nd	Pinto	Sold as a budding 2nd liner, is delivering (GOLD star)
2nd	Soggard	Sold as the goalie of the future, is taking the scenic route

 

[Icelevel]

anatomy of failure. How you get yourself into trouble and cannot get out.

2015​
1st	Chabot	Sold as a Norris contender. Is injury prone and a defensive question mark
1st	White	Sold as Patrice Bergeron Junior. Is out of the league
2nd	Gagne	Sold as a stud power forward. Is/Was in jail
2nd	Chlapic	Sold as a stud 2rd line center. Is in Europe , mid level player
2016​
1st	Brown	Sold as the stud #1 center of the future, is no where
2nd	Dahlen	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line point producer, is no where
2017​
1st	Bowers	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, is no where
2nd	Formenton	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, may end up in jail
2018​
1st	Tkachuk	Sold as and had delivered (GOLD star)
1st	JBD	Sold as a future top 4 D, is a 6/7 D
2nd	Tychonick	Sold as a future 5-7 D, is no where
2019​
1st	Thomson	Sold as a future top 4 D, just left for Europe
2nd	Pinto	Sold as a budding 2nd liner, is delivering (GOLD star)
2nd	Soggard	Sold as the goalie of the future, is taking the scenic route

Opportunity cost stings hard on a lot of those.

Add boeser, carlo, k miller, hintz, tolvanen, tomasino to our roster and imagine.

I’m a dummy and those were my picks. I liked the chabot, brown, tkachuk picks. I didn’t know enough about pinto so didn’t have him there and would have made a bad pick with kaliyev or lavoie

All hail the draft god dorkion, sold to us as a master of the draft, works at gabriels in orleans

 

[Micklebot]

anatomy of failure. How you get yourself into trouble and cannot get out.

2015​
1st	Chabot	Sold as a Norris contender. Is injury prone and a defensive question mark
1st	White	Sold as Patrice Bergeron Junior. Is out of the league
2nd	Gagne	Sold as a stud power forward. Is/Was in jail
2nd	Chlapic	Sold as a stud 2rd line center. Is in Europe , mid level player
2016​
1st	Brown	Sold as the stud #1 center of the future, is no where
2nd	Dahlen	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line point producer, is no where
2017​
1st	Bowers	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, is no where
2nd	Formenton	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, may end up in jail
2018​
1st	Tkachuk	Sold as and had delivered (GOLD star)
1st	JBD	Sold as a future top 4 D, is a 6/7 D
2nd	Tychonick	Sold as a future 5-7 D, is no where
2019​
1st	Thomson	Sold as a future top 4 D, just left for Europe
2nd	Pinto	Sold as a budding 2nd liner, is delivering (GOLD star)
2nd	Soggard	Sold as the goalie of the future, is taking the scenic route

Formenton definitely lived up to his potential, you can't fault the team for that one.

As for Sogaard, he's 23, at the same age Demko was still primarily playing in Utica, Hill with the Roadrunners, Woll with the Marlies, ect, Sogaard may not pan out but his route seems pretty typical.

 

[PlayOn]

anatomy of failure. How you get yourself into trouble and cannot get out.

2015​
1st	Chabot	Sold as a Norris contender. Is injury prone and a defensive question mark
1st	White	Sold as Patrice Bergeron Junior. Is out of the league
2nd	Gagne	Sold as a stud power forward. Is/Was in jail
2nd	Chlapic	Sold as a stud 2rd line center. Is in Europe , mid level player
2016​
1st	Brown	Sold as the stud #1 center of the future, is no where
2nd	Dahlen	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line point producer, is no where
2017​
1st	Bowers	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, is no where
2nd	Formenton	Sold as a quality 2nd line/3rd line forward, may end up in jail
2018​
1st	Tkachuk	Sold as and had delivered (GOLD star)
1st	JBD	Sold as a future top 4 D, is a 6/7 D
2nd	Tychonick	Sold as a future 5-7 D, is no where
2019​
1st	Thomson	Sold as a future top 4 D, just left for Europe
2nd	Pinto	Sold as a budding 2nd liner, is delivering (GOLD star)
2nd	Soggard	Sold as the goalie of the future, is taking the scenic route

Nothing really wrong with our second round drafting under Mann honestly. We clearly pivoted from what we were doing prior.

Did great with our top 5 picks. You’d like to see a couple more hits with our other firsts realistically.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Sanderson is the piece I build out with if I'm the GM.

The recent Tkachuk rumours, combined with the history of star players and this organization, lead me to believe he has a year left before we potentially back ourselves into a corner with a trade demand. Can't afford to be reactive and risk dealing from a position of weakness yet again; that was the Dorion way. Have to be proactive and win trades if there is any indication that our window is not aligned with Brady's. And winning a Brady trade would mean securing a major haul that could be plugged into this roster immediately and make an impact.

I am also 50/50 on whether Stutzle can lead the forward corps on a true cup contender. He is an electrifying talent, but will he gel and become a true all-situations number one centre that can win multiple playoff series? Not sure. If the Senators braintrust decide against running with Tim, he too would fetch a major haul that could be used to make this team immediately competitive and much deeper.

Sanderson, though, is a no brainer. I have no concerns about his ability to stay healthy and elevate offensively and defensively come playoff time. My first order of business would be to use whatever assets are required to get him a perfect partner and sign that player long term.

 

[Micklebot]

Nothing really wrong with our second round drafting under Mann honestly. We clearly pivoted from what we were doing prior.

Did great with our top 5 picks. You’d like to see a couple more hits with our other firsts realistically.

It's also worth pointing out the "sold as" column tends to be fairly ambitious, Chabot is about as good as you expect for where we got him, sold as Norris contender, well there's only a dozen or so true Norris contenders out there, if you land that at 18 you've won the lottery, similarly, selling second picks as anything other than we think he might be a player then you're setting yourself up to be disappointed most of the time. Same applies to late 1sts like Bowers.

We had some flops in Brown, and arguably guys like JBD, Thomson and White, but you need to set realistic expectations otherwise everything is a disappointment.

 

[Beech]

Nothing really wrong with our second round drafting under Mann honestly. We clearly pivoted from what we were doing prior.

Did great with our top 5 picks. You’d like to see a couple more hits with our other firsts realistically.

7 guys drafted in round 2.

Most went in the top half of round 2. So picks, 31-45 (Vegas and Seattle only upset the draft from 2018 onward).

7 guys. 5 are not in the league... 1 is a success, Pinto.... 1 is still a TBD (soggard).

As of NOW.. 1 in 7.


7 picks in round 1.. 4 of which were in the top 20.

4 are out of the league.... 1 is a success, 1 is a question mark (Chabot.. question mark in terms of salary, durability, defensive capability). At the moment, he is a # 4 Dman, being paid as a #1.. 1 is 6/7 Dman (JBD)

so 1 in 7 is success
2 in 7 is mid success or better
3 in 7 is some success and better.

14 guys, produced 4 NHLers...3 average to above average.

3 out of 14.. and in a period when we were drafting fairly high.

finishing 7th from the bottom in 2023/2024 is as surprising to me, as a snow storm in January, or a heat wave in July.

 

[Micklebot]

7 guys drafted in round 2.

Most went in the top half of round 2. So picks, 31-45 (Vegas and Seattle only upset the draft from 2018 onward).

7 guys. 5 are not in the league... 1 is a success, Pinto.... 1 is still a TBD (soggard).

As of NOW.. 1 in 7.


7 picks in round 1.. 4 of which were in the top 20.

4 are out of the league.... 1 is a success, 1 is a question mark (Chabot.. question mark in terms of salary, durability, defensive capability). At the moment, he is a # 4 Dman, being paid as a #1.. 1 is 6/7 Dman (JBD)

so 1 in 7 is success
2 in 7 is mid success or better
3 in 7 is some success and better.

14 guys, produced 4 NHLers...3 average to above average.

3 out of 14.. and in a period when we were drafting fairly high.

finishing 7th from the bottom in 2023/2024 is as surprising to me, as a snow storm in January, or a heat wave in July.

You're dealing with a pick range that only has about a 40% chance of playing 100 games, less for goalies.

Our hit rate was just shy of 30%, had one more guy hit, we're right at average.

The sky isn't falling, this is pretty normal results across the league. If we hit on Kleven and Jarventie, were right back at average.

Could be worse, NYR, Florida and NYI don't have a successful pick between then in those years,

 

[Beech]

You're dealing with a pick range that only has about a 40% chance of playing 100 games, less for goalies.

Our hit rate was just shy of 30%, had one more guy hit, we're right at average.

The sky isn't falling, this is pretty normal results across the league. If we hit on Kleven and Jarventie, were right back at average.

Could be worse, NYR, Florida and NYI don't have a successful pick between then in those years,

Mick,

Imagine the NHL did not allow trades or FA signings. So that the Sens can only draft their players.

2 rounds, 7 players, in each round, in 5 years (incredible in its own right.. That is 2 extra picks a round)

this team has 3 players to show for it. 3 in 5 years. A rookie is 20, a veteran on his last leg is 37.. so 18 years.. and thus 3.5 sets of 5 years. We would have 10/11 players. accounting for injuries that derail careers, we would be at 9 or 10!!!!

a team is 22 players, 20 must play. We would have 9 or 10.. So needing 9-10 from rounds 3-6. Insane! And this, after injury correction. So, 10 or 11 is needed out of draft. We would need rounds 3-6 to be just as successful as rounds 1 and 2??? Impossible.

And the 3 guys are from 7 picks in each rounds 1 and 2. You normally have 5! Correct that way, and you may be down to 2 players. And so for a life cycle of 18 years, we would have 7/8 after injury correction!

This has to stop. It has been this way since 2002. This team will spend the next 100 years mired in mediocracy if they do not improve this.

Any 5 year period should bring you closer to 5 players (assuming 5 and 5 picks in each round). And should produce close to 7 players, if at 7 and 7 picks. Essentially every 2 picks in rounds 1 and 2, should yield 1 player. Now I am not suggesting every 2 picks gets you an HOF.. but a 3rd liner and better and a top 4 D and a goalie (I hope you understand the goalie is of the entire 18 year cycle)..

18 years, 36 picks, 18 players, 14/15 are left after injuries. Rounds 3-6 get you the remaining 7/8 guys . Now as you consider modern reality of trades and FAs, you still have a perfectly balanced system, where your input is equal to your output.

I hope the Andlauer/Staios/Staios' replacement(s), do way better than the Previous crop.

 

[PlayOn]

7 guys drafted in round 2.

Most went in the top half of round 2. So picks, 31-45 (Vegas and Seattle only upset the draft from 2018 onward).

7 guys. 5 are not in the league... 1 is a success, Pinto.... 1 is still a TBD (soggard).

As of NOW.. 1 in 7.


7 picks in round 1.. 4 of which were in the top 20.

4 are out of the league.... 1 is a success, 1 is a question mark (Chabot.. question mark in terms of salary, durability, defensive capability). At the moment, he is a # 4 Dman, being paid as a #1.. 1 is 6/7 Dman (JBD)

so 1 in 7 is success
2 in 7 is mid success or better
3 in 7 is some success and better.

14 guys, produced 4 NHLers...3 average to above average.

3 out of 14.. and in a period when we were drafting fairly high.

finishing 7th from the bottom in 2023/2024 is as surprising to me, as a snow storm in January, or a heat wave in July.

Sure but this all about framing.

I can reframe this to make the Sens look good too. In this timeframe, Ottawa drafted 4/7 of their core players in Chabot, Tkachuk, Pinto and Batherson. They also drafted a legitimate #1 goalie in Joey Daccord and possibly another one coming in Mads Sogaard. On top of this, they got value out of Colin White on their third line for a few seasons (or technically higher), Formenton was trending to be an elite PK guy that can score but circumstances out of Ottawa’s control took him out of the line-up, JBD is turning into a solid shot blocking bottom pairing dman, and Kastelic is centering our 4th line.

Is this a bit rosey? Sure. But your post is just the opposite side of this. We don’t suck because our second round picks in 2015 flopped, this is an arbitrary timeframe where we had some good drafts and some bad - like all teams.

 

[dumbdick]

- 26th overall to Toronto for Nick Robertson and Tim lilijgren
- Chychrun for a top young goalie ready to crack the league.

Chuck - Norris - Bath
Robertson - Stu - Giroux
Greig - Pinto - Joseph
Crookshank - Kastelik - Kachouk
Kelly/Macewen

Sandy - Zub
Chabot -Lilly
Brann - Kleven/JBD/Hamonic
Hamonic/Kleven/JBD

Korpisalo
Chych return

 

[armani]

You're dealing with a pick range that only has about a 40% chance of playing 100 games, less for goalies.

Our hit rate was just shy of 30%, had one more guy hit, we're right at average.

The sky isn't falling, this is pretty normal results across the league. If we hit on Kleven and Jarventie, were right back at average.

Could be worse, NYR, Florida and NYI don't have a successful pick between then in those years,

I think Kleven is a matter of when, not if. He should be a regular by 2025.

Jarventie just had surgery on his knee that was bugging him since he came over to North America. He has all the tools needed to be a successful contributor in the top-9. Still needs some seasoning in the AHL but could also arrive by 2025. Or he can be a bust, but I like his progression.

Ostapchuk to me is a sure fire bottom 6 contributor in the NHL, with some more seasoning. Should be a regular by 2025 as well.

Goalies are voodoo and take more time, so we will see where we are at with Merilainen and Sogaard after this season.

What's even more interesting are some of the mid-round picks looking like prospects with potential future on the big team. Stephen Buddy Halliday has a very short sample size of good hockey, but those 10 regular season and 7 playoff games were intense and meaningful. As a rookie, he has shined and shown to have great vision/IQ/hands. I believe Crookshank can play a role in the NHL despite lacking size, as early as next season, although I personally prefer a veteran signing.