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Curious case of Devante Smith-Pelly

girlfriend haver said:
You're using a 48 game sample size where he is shooting 17% as an argument to tell us gow valuable he is. In the regular season he is an 8% shooter with a far bigger sample size
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Okay. So he is a more accurate shooter in the playoffs. Thanks for helping my argument.
 
Capitals fans are the most irrational with this. Devante was undeniably key last year and his forechecking, clutch goal scoring and heart were big reasons they won. Coming into this year there were high hopes he'd continue but he was as bad as a player could be, not to mention being grossly out of shape. He simply couldn't keep up and he was effective at nothing, he left the Caps no choice and now there's just no spot for him.

The Caps bottom 6 are playing as well as anyone's heading into the postseason, you can't mess with that.
 
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DSP is not a good match to play against fast skilled young team that is not very physical

I suspect Caps will call him up at some point though if they can get past Canes
 
43sfriends said:
Or, to comport the stats in his favor instead of against, he has 13 goals in 48 playoff games, that's a 23 goal pace for a full season, monster production for a 4th liner. Realistically, a point such as his game 5 tying goal-out-of-nowhere against Vegas is probably worth about a dozen secondary assists.

He also plays a heavy game unlike pillow-soft Boyd and Stephenson, and was a big part of the physicality the Caps brought to the playoffs last year, which was the decisive factor in the Tampa Bay series.

I never said DSP is proven, in fact I said the opposite. And I'm not romanticizing him at all, in fact I don't even care for him much as a player, I just think it's clear from last year that it's worth kicking the tires on him again if and when the adversity and injuries start stacking up on this run. It's arbitrary and reeks of bias that people are automatically assuming his play last year was a fluke.
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Over the past three seasons he's played 182 games while recording 15g and 18 assists over that time, finishing this season in the Ahl.

Pro rated over 82 games that's a 7g 15pt pace.

That's not proof enough that last post season was a fluke?
 
Dude turned down way more money this off season to sign a one year deal with the caps... Smh, cash in and look after yourself.
 
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JasonRoseEh said:
Capitals fans are the most irrational with this. Devante was undeniably key last year and his forechecking, clutch goal scoring and heart were big reasons they won. Coming into this year there were high hopes he'd continue but he was as bad as a player could be, not to mention being grossly out of shape. He simply couldn't keep up and he was effective at nothing, he left the Caps no choice and now there's just no spot for him.

The Caps bottom 6 are playing as well as anyone's heading into the postseason, you can't mess with that.
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Don't see how any of that makes Caps fans irrational. I think we've done a good job separating our appreciation for what DSP did last year from expectations for this post-season.
 
Frank Drebin said:
Over the past three seasons he's played 182 games while recording 15g and 18 assists over that time, finishing this season in the Ahl.

Pro rated over 82 games that's a 7g 15pt pace.

That's not proof enough that last post season was a fluke?
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No, because you're comparing apples to oranges. Compare regular season to regular season, and post season to post season.
 
I think during his time with the Devils there were some pretty heavy implications that his off-ice practices and methods just weren't at the level required to stick in the NHL.

Not definitively calling him lazy or anything - I haven't met him nor seen it first hand. But a lack of work ethic was the common theme I heard.
 
43sfriends said:
No, because you're comparing apples to oranges. Compare regular season to regular season, and post season to post season.
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Unfortunately there are no apples to compare to - DSP's last playoff game before last post season was in 2015 with Montreal.

All signs point to that playoff being an anomaly, and the 3G in the final 3GP skewing the sample size.

To put it in perspective, prior to those final 3 playoff games against LVK, his playoff totals were:

4-1-5 in 21 games, or 10G, 3A and 13pts in 45 career games.

That pro rates out to about 15G and 7A over the course of a 82 game schedule.

Hardly anything to write home about.
 
He is a north south body bang player in a league that is not geared for those types anymore. Was never consistent either while doing disappearing acts. Was phenomenal in the Caps cup run though.
 
He should've gotten when the getting was good for getting. Coming off the playoffs, he probably could've signed for more than $1m somewhere(GMs do get stupid in free agency). Now he might not get another contract.
 
He's a replacement level player who managed to score on a quarter of his shots last playoffs while still performing exceptionally badly and frequently being dominated when he was out there. Even if he had actually played well last post season, his 395 games of poor regular season performance is a far better predictor of how well he'd do in this post season than a 2 month playoff stretch last year.
 
Demandedace said:
That’s not how it works.
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"It" doesn't work any particular way because we are talking about statistical analysis and in the end it is up to humans with values to decide what stats are meaningful to them. There is a qualitative difference between regular season and playoff games, because quantifying it would be an impossibly complex task. While some players are going to be accurately modeled based on their entire career stats, others will look significantly different if you consider regular and post season separate (like Justin Williams for instance), because of that qualitative difference.
 
Frank Drebin said:
Unfortunately there are no apples to compare to - DSP's last playoff game before last post season was in 2015 with Montreal.

All signs point to that playoff being an anomaly, and the 3G in the final 3GP skewing the sample size.

To put it in perspective, prior to those final 3 playoff games against LVK, his playoff totals were:

4-1-5 in 21 games, or 10G, 3A and 13pts in 45 career games.

That pro rates out to about 15G and 7A over the course of a 82 game schedule.

Hardly anything to write home about.
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5 G in 12 GP with Anaheim, 2014.

You can make literally point you want about any player when you start removing relevant parts of a sample, like "the final 3GP" in order to fit your preconceived argument.
 
43sfriends said:
5 G in 12 GP with Anaheim, 2014.

You can make literally point you want about any player when you start removing relevant parts of a sample, like "the final 3GP" in order to fit your preconceived argument.
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....like using stats from half a decade ago?
 
he got paid and then got fat and out of shape after getting his payday and getting jaded from hoisting Lord Stanley. it happens.

he's not a game changer or anything obviously but he added some nice timely goals playing deep in the capitals lineup but i don't see why or how he isn't replaceable.
 
43sfriends said:
"It" doesn't work any particular way because we are talking about statistical analysis and in the end it is up to humans with values to decide what stats are meaningful to them. There is a qualitative difference between regular season and playoff games, because quantifying it would be an impossibly complex task. While some players are going to be accurately modeled based on their entire career stats, others will look significantly different if you consider regular and post season separate (like Justin Williams for instance), because of that qualitative difference.
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K.
 
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