Crosby vs McDavid - who will manage to be PPG every season of their career?

[bobholly39]

I believe Mike Bossy is the only player in NHL history who has managed to play at PPG or above every season of his career. Even Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux didn't manage that. Of course - Bossy played in the high scoring era of the 80s and retired at age 30 - many players (including Gretzky and Lemieux) managed to be ppg until 30, but later on had a season below as they got older.

So far - Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby are the only two other players in history to manage the same. McDavid barely counts, as he's still only ~5 seasons in, and others have managed that before. Still - I don't think anyone expects him to go below ppg anytime soon, it's ages 30+ that will start to be question marks. Can he hold on and age gracefully enough to have ppg+ every season?

Sidney Crosby for his part has been above ppg every one of his 15 season so far. He's going into age 33 next season - I don't think he's in danger of going below ppg in the immediate future, but once he starts hitting age 35, and maybe if he plays closer to ~38-40, it'll certainly be very difficult to keep up.

So the question is - who of Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid manage to play every season of their career at a pace of PPG or above? Both, neither/nor, or one of the two?

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[The Moose is Loose]

Neither is the most likely. McDavid has a chance because we don't know what his decline will look like but it's looking very likely that Crosby will fall below PPG at some point. He has only been very slightly over PPG in 5 of his last 6 seasons.

The only reason Bossy stayed PPG was because he retired so young, had he played till late 30s its a foregone conclusion he would have gone under PPG. So its entirely possible that no players will ever have a 20+ season career and be above PPG every season.

 

[Gurglesons]

Sid.

 

[Regal]

Neither is the most likely. McDavid has a chance because we don't know what his decline will look like but it's looking very likely that Crosby will fall below PPG at some point. He has only been very slightly over PPG in 5 of his last 6 seasons.

The only reason Bossy stayed PPG was because he retired so young, had he played till late 30s its a foregone conclusion he would have gone under PPG. So its entirely possible that no players will ever have a 20+ season career and be above PPG every season.

I don't know if I'd call paces of 97 and 94 points "very slightly over PPG". League scoring has also gone up, so his numbers from 2014-16 are less meaningful. He was 1st and 3rd in PPG those seasons. They would be 100 point seasons today.

 

[ScaredStreit]

I believe Mike Bossy is the only player in NHL history who has managed to play at PPG or above every season of his career. Even Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux didn't manage that. Of course - Bossy played in the high scoring era of the 80s and retired at age 30 - many players (including Gretzky and Lemieux) managed to be ppg until 30, but later on had a season below as they got older.

So far - Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby are the only two other players in history to manage the same. McDavid barely counts, as he's still only ~5 seasons in, and others have managed that before. Still - I don't think anyone expects him to go below ppg anytime soon, it's ages 30+ that will start to be question marks. Can he hold on and age gracefully enough to have ppg+ every season?

Sidney Crosby for his part has been above ppg every one of his 15 season so far. He's going into age 33 next season - I don't think he's in danger of going below ppg in the immediate future, but once he starts hitting age 35, and maybe if he plays closer to ~38-40, it'll certainly be very difficult to keep up.

So the question is - who of Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid manage to play every season of their career at a pace of PPG or above? Both, neither/nor, or one of the two?

Bossy's a difficult one to really go by because of injuries cutting his career short so young. While he technically holds some records (GPG) and this one he also loses out on others...such as Bossy had a real chance at breaking Gretzky's goal record.

 

[bobholly39]

Bossy's a difficult one to really go by because of injuries cutting his career short so young. While he technically holds some records (GPG) and this one he also loses out on others...such as Bossy had a real chance at breaking Gretzky's goal record.

Yeah Bossy 100% wouldn't have been ppg every season if he played into his late 30s - it's strictly thanks to retiring early. Similarly - there's absolutely no way whatsoever he maintains the highest GPG all-time if he plays into his 30s.

I agree with you regarding the all-time goal-record though. I could see Bossy ageing like Ovechkin as a goal-scorer, doing quite well. He wouldn't even have to do as good as Ovechkin and lead the league in goals as Ovi has done - but considering the higher scoring era in the 90s, he could probably finish ~5-10th place and still regularly be doing ~45-50 a year. I think him surpassing 900 would be plausible - it would all come down to how well he'd have aged and how long he plays, which are unknown.

All that to say - Crosby is unique so far with PPG every season till age 33. Others (Gretzky/Lemieux) did it longer than age 33, but eventually missed. We'll have to see if Crosby holds on. I see no reason why McDavid won't be in the conversation till at least age 30 too - but with him too there's no telling how well or not he will age.

 

[BlueBaron]

Strange poll. How can we know who will stay too long and who won't?

 

[Fugazy]

I can see both doing that.

 

[Stealth JD]

Usually guys retire only after they've realized that they're no longer capable of meeting their own high standards. Otherwise, if you're earning millions of dollars per year to play a game you love, and can play at a PPG-pace...why would you retire? No doubt both play until their games noticeably fall off, showing in their production being under 1 PPG.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Crosby will because I think Crosby retires before his play goes down the toilet. All indications point to him retiring after his current deal is done at age 37. For comparison, Joe Sakic hit 100 points as a 37 year old in 2006-2007.

 

[Regal]

Crosby will because I think Crosby retires before his play goes down the toilet. All indications point to him retiring after his current deal is done at age 37. For comparison, Joe Sakic hit 100 points as a 37 year old in 2006-2007.

Has he said something specifically? I know he doesn't have anything to prove, nor does he have to cup chase (Iginla) or have a specific record to chase (Marleau, Jagr), but he seems to love the game so much that I always figured he would stick around as long as he was at least a top line player (So maybe only scoring in the 60s or 70s instead of PPG+)

 

[ViD]

Apparently Malkin only had 1 season slightly below PPG

 

[bobholly39]

Apparently Malkin only had 1 season slightly below PPG

A lot of players have just one season below ppg. Malkin doing it in the middle of his prime (and it was pretty low, 0.86 ppg) is actually not too great in an all-time sense. A lot of players have done better than that.

 

[ViD]

A lot of players have just one season below ppg. Malkin doing it in the middle of his prime (and it was pretty low, 0.86 ppg) is actually not too great in an all-time sense. A lot of players have done better than that.

Who are those players in the recent era with just one season below PPG ?

 

[Midnight Judges]

If half seasons and quarter seasons count towards this, then it's meaningless.

 

[bobholly39]

If half seasons and quarter seasons count towards this, then it's meaningless.

Why? Especially for Crosby and McDavid at least - they never came close to missing ppg, full seasons or not.

Are you saying others should be counted too who only missed in quarter seasons? Example Lemieux only missed at age 38 and 40 in seasons of 10 and 26 games.

 

[bobholly39]

Who are those players in the recent era with just one season below PPG ?

Not sure what you mean by "recent era" - but assuming you mean post-lockout I can't think of many others. Auston Matthews is one name, missed in his rookie year, but not since.

But guys like Gretzky, Lemieux....all were ppg in every season past Malkin's current age. So being just off by one season isn't that unique - there's probably more from the 80s and 90s who do so.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Why?

Because per game stats are more difficult to maintain when a player plays more games. This is true in every sport. To ignore this is to punish the players who showed up.

In baseball, a player is not eligible for a batting title unless they have 502 plate appearances - which amounts to roughly 80% of a season for an average everyday player.

Are you saying others should be counted too who only missed in quarter seasons? Example Lemieux only missed at age 38 and 40 in seasons of 10 and 26 games.

IMO, the bar for a per game stat to be counted as applying across a full season should be in the neighborhood of 75% of team games. Lemieux failed that standard on several occasions. Of course, if a player exceeds 82 points, they've achieved a full season PPG regardless of how many games they missed, so they probably should get credit in those instances as well.

More accurately, IMO, this should be adjusted for league wide scoring. Otherwise players from the weaker eras are arbitrarily elevated.

Especially for Crosby and McDavid at least - they never came close to missing ppg, full seasons or not.

Not long after Crosby's extra rest seasons, Crosby was 5, 7, and 7 points away from missing a PPG over full seasons. Similarly, McDavid had 48 points is 45 games his rookie year. That's not far from a PPG at all.

 

[Beau Knows]

I'll go with McDavid here even though he's got a ways to go. I think Crosby will have a season under ppg within the next couple years, the Penguins roster and coaching will be in a state of flux, and it could result in another Mike Johnston type period for the Penguins.

 

[NeverForget06]

I could see Sid still playing when under a PPG.... and Pens fans should take that as a compliment. He's a superior defensive player to Connor and brings more value on that side IMO.

I think Connor's defensive game will improve with age but right now Sid is the much better two-way player

 

[bobholly39]

Because per game stats are more difficult to maintain when a player plays more games. This is true in every sport. To ignore this is to punish the players who showed up.

In baseball, a player is not eligible for a batting title unless they have 502 plate appearances - which amounts to roughly 80% of a season for an average everyday player.



IMO, the bar for a per game stat to be counted as applying across a full season should be in the neighborhood of 75% of team games. Lemieux failed that standard on several occasions. Of course, if a player exceeds 82 points, they've achieved a full season PPG regardless of how many games they missed, so they probably should get credit in those instances as well.

More accurately, IMO, this should be adjusted for league wide scoring. Otherwise players from the weaker eras are arbitrarily elevated.



Not long after Crosby's extra rest seasons, Crosby was 5, 7, and 7 points away from missing a PPG over full seasons. Similarly, McDavid had 48 points is 45 games his rookie year. That's not far from a PPG at all.

I don't really understand your point. If I was saying "who has the most ppg seasons" and you wanted to not count seasons that are 50% or less games, or even 75% or less games - sure, that's a position you could take.

So looking at McDavid - you discount his rookie season (45 games) and so you count it as 4 ppg seasons, instead of 5.

But all we're doing here is counting seasons where someone missed. 75%, 50% or 3 games - you either are above ppg, or you're not. It's a raw output - super simple to track.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Not sure what you mean by "recent era" - but assuming you mean post-lockout I can't think of many others. Auston Matthews is one name, missed in his rookie year, but not since.

But guys like Gretzky, Lemieux....all were ppg in every season past Malkin's current age. So being just off by one season isn't that unique - there's probably more from the 80s and 90s who do so.

It looks like hockeyreference.com put their play index tool behind a paywall so I can't access all the names, but Malkin has 13 ppg seasons in 14 years, only 14 other players have as many years above 1.00 ppg.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Crosby will be a top 5 scorer next season book it