Craig Button List Spring 2025

[JadedRandom]

20 of the top 24 are Canadian according to him. 21 Canadians in the first round.

All the notable Americans ranked low.

How does this compute with that Canada’s share of NHL’ers drops virtually every year?

Absolute clown.

This draft in particular is weaker for Europe and the US, it happens.

As a whole canadians account for an ever-smaller percentage of NHL, and that trend will continue over the next few years.

This draft is just an outlier in that sense.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I didn't bring up 2020 or 2023. Like at all. I quoted your post where you brought up '25, '26 & '27 and stated that the 1OA have already been staked to Canada, for what I can only assume is a result of this bias/conspiracy. Again, not sure why you felt the need to bring up 2020 & 2023. My only question was that for all three of those years, Canadians have a legitimate argument for 1OA. Its clear you have Hagens first for this year, but reasonable arguments have been made for others as well. And that's cool - time will tell. As for '26 & '27, you may not believe in McKenna or Dupont (again you could be right in the long run), but it is disingenuous to play dumb and not admit that if those drafts happened today, they wouldn't be the first overalls. And that's all I claimed.

What I don't understand about you is you're speaking as though
1. Hagens is objectively the best player when of course that isn't true. He could be and I would be ecstatic if Montreal picked him and he's got a solid argument for #1 but so too do others.
2. Late risers don't exist. Let's go with him having the best resume so far.. so what. You claimed yourself for 2020 and 2023 just because the pedigree or consensus is there, doesn't mean it will project to the NHL. Again, I like Hagens and would never cheer against the kid, but in what world is it not reasonable that some GMs think other will project better.
3. Finally, you claim hit pieces and orchestrated campaigns against US players. But is that really more reasonable then pundits just having a different opinion then you? I'll grant you that of course there may be some national bias or convenience bias (if they tend to watch CHL players more given they're in Canada). No one in this thread has said otherwise and acknowledge that bias is a real thing. Where people are calling you out is this extraordinary claim of conspiracy and delegitimized draft processes. Its crazy talk. You haven't even proven that Button or whoever is in fact putting out hit pieces. He may be a loon but you're making heavy claims with nothing to back them up.

The burden of proof is on you and unfortunately, you just don't come close to meeting it. Still waiting on proof that Europeans believe the NHL draft is not legitimate btw.

To be clear, I absolutely believe in DuPont. I don’t want to say for sure he’s the best player in the 2027 draft. I haven’t seen most of the rest of the class, but chances are good he will actually be what he is hyped as. The issue is that we’ve had all these Canadian players who are just handed 1OA, and quite a number of them are not living up to what they were billed as. 2027 is part of the pattern, and maybe the one year where it’s deserved to that extent.

So when I say they’re claiming 2025 and 2026, I am going off the evidence we have right now. Bob McKenzie said it is unanimous that Schaefer is viewed by the powers that be as the first selection. He has quoted scouts that say there’s nothing else that can be done. It is highly likely Schaefer will go 1OA, and if he doesn’t it’ll be like 2022 where a bold team thought a little different.

2026, we can say it’s a year before the draft, but I think anyone who follows this stuff knows the highly likely sequence of events. See Lafreniere in 2020 and Bedard in 2023. McKenna is being hyped as the next great Canadian junior scorer. The two before him went 1OA with no real competition. They were coddled and protected. In hindsight, there certainly should’ve been more scrutiny.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How does any one have this much time on their hands to continually move goal posts & triple down on ridiculous accusations?
Are Canadians supposed to talk to Schaffer & Misa, and tell them they need to stop doing better because Canada has had an unfair amount of 1st overall picks recently? That the USA deserves to get one because they had a guy that was ranked #1, but all rankings have him falling all year? That the US fans need this "win"?

How can any sane person not take this as ridiculous?

Except your players have worse resumes. Misa and Schaefer’s 2023-24 are worse than anything we’ve seen from Hagens. Hagens has exceeded all of them (including Martone and Frondell) at international junior tournaments head to head.

Of course you won’t admit this, even though it’s plainly true. You have an interest and stake in this. You are just going to play thick and act like everything’s above board as your interests personally profit, while calling the people who mention it conspiracy theorists or crazy.

Okay well, good luck with Canada being the only country that believes in the legitimacy of the process now. They crossed a line with the 2025 draft and this is what it’ll now be going forward.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

The only interest I have in this is purely for entertainment. You are providing that for me currently.
I have no stake, and I certainly don't profit from draft rankings or results.

 

[ORRFForever]

Except your players have worse resumes. Misa and Schaefer’s 2023-24 are worse than anything we’ve seen from Hagens. Hagens has exceeded all of them (including Martone and Frondell) at international junior tournaments head to head.

Of course you won’t admit this, even though it’s plainly true. You have an interest and stake in this. You are just going to play thick and act like everything’s above board as your interests personally profit, while calling the people who mention it conspiracy theorists or crazy.

Okay well, good luck with Canada being the only country that believes in the legitimacy of the process now. They crossed a line with the 2025 draft and this is what it’ll now be going forward.

@Pavel Buchnevich... It's just a draft list. Don't sweat it, my friend.

If Hagens is as good as you say, he will be better than the competition in the NHL. No one cares where someone is drafted after they've been drafted.

Peace!

 

[ORRFForever]

This draft in particular is weaker for Europe and the US, it happens.

As a whole canadians account for an ever-smaller percentage of NHL, and that trend will continue over the next few years.

This draft is just an outlier in that sense.

It's been an outlier since 2020 and it will continue next year and hopefully in 2027.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Except your players have worse resumes. Misa and Schaefer’s 2023-24 are worse than anything we’ve seen from Hagens. Hagens has exceeded all of them (including Martone and Frondell) at international junior tournaments head to head.

Of course you won’t admit this, even though it’s plainly true. You have an interest and stake in this. You are just going to play thick and act like everything’s above board as your interests personally profit, while calling the people who mention it conspiracy theorists or crazy.

Okay well, good luck with Canada being the only country that believes in the legitimacy of the process now. They crossed a line with the 2025 draft and this is what it’ll now be going forward.

The bolded point is likelier to work FOR Misa and Schaefer, rather than against them, and that is assuming scouts even care about D-1 production.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The bolded point is likelier to work FOR Misa and Schaefer, rather than against them, and that is assuming scouts even care about D-1 production.

Right. Players improving is seen as a positive. Lots of scouts mention a strong second half as an appealing characteristic for example.

 

[BondraTime]

Right. Players improving is seen as a positive. Lots of scouts mention a strong second half as an appealing characteristic for example.

Not to mention it's literally their 16 year old seasons.

Can't make this stuff up

 

[Giant Panda]

Oh yeah, and I guess 2020 and 2023 were consensus? How is that looking? Lafreniere is maybe a top 10 player in the 2020 draft. It's early for Bedard. He isn't having the success predicted. Better than Lafreniere, but it's certainly up for debate if he's the best 2023 eligible (certainly not the generational player some told us he was). Could also theoretically get worse, like it did for Lafreniere relative to draft position. 2022 was consensus until Shane Wright hit some struggles, and he couldn't possibly be a slam dunk. I actually think Wright is doing kind of well relative to where he was selected.

Who is actually claiming McKenna is consensus? He's all the faults people claim of Hagens (smallish, pretty good skating but not elite skating), yet he doesn't play center. Yeah, he's dominated the CHL in points. That was the same case for Bedard being at a level we see he's currently not at. Maybe it'll be true for McKenna. Maybe he'll simply end up the best player in 2026, but the lack of curiosity and just handing him the 1OA because he's the highest scoring Canadian player in junior hockey in the last few years is the same thing we saw with Lafreniere and Bedard.

2027 is far out. Of course that caveat is needed. We don't really know how players will develop, but let's be real, everyone knows that DuPont is going first overall, barring something crazy like significant injuries or off ice issues. And you know what? I could grant you that as probably being legit. DuPont is probably the actual level of player where that applies (not whatever we're told Lafreniere, Bedard, and McKenna are). Of course the issue here is not one year. It's that we're talking about this being virtually every year.


I have been very clear about this.

It is a combination of many things.

The pundit class (the majority of which are Canadians) has trafficked in these faulty narratives all season about the American draft class, including the best player in the class. The fans (the majority of which are Canadians) has done the same. NHL front offices also are majority Canadian, and we get a good look at what they think through Bob McKenzie's draft rankings. Their quotes and voting history in his draft rankings told us essentially the same.

Do I also think there's just a general bias towards Canadian leagues? Yeah, when you combine that the majority of those interested, whether with an active role in the NHL or a passive role, live in Canada and/or have a natural allegiance to the Canadian leagues that they don't have to other leagues? I think you get plenty of bias. It's what they know. It's what they've come to enjoy. It certainly leads to biases.

I'm truly baffled that you can cast so much doubt on McKenna but be so certain about Hagens.

I get it, people were very hostile to me having Fantilli above Bedard on my draft lists (but weirdly, no hostility to having Byfield, Raymond, and Sanderson above Lafreniere, I should have gotten a lot more flack for having Stutzle as low as I did). I didn't make it into a war, I didn't make it a mission. I get to look back proudly for having Fantilli above Bedard in 4 of the 5 lists I made that year.

But again, Bedard has been fantastic. He's come exactly as advertised. Almost 70 point pace at 19, set to be a point per game career player... that's exactly what I was expecting. Go back in the predicting how many points Bedard would score in his rookie season thread... I posted '60 pts in 65 games, 20g 40 assists, -25'. He really wasn't too far off that.

McKenna... he doesn't have the same criticisms Hagens has. Projecting those criticisms onto McKenna ignores what those criticisms are. Hagens doesn't have the same skill level as we would like to see in top picks, he's not explosive, and he's not elusive (elusiveness is the thing that holds Bedard back from being elite). Hagens size is fine (though McKenna is up to 6'1, he's more than fine there), Hagens skating is okay for the type of game he plays (though, McKenna is about as fast as a skater, McKenna is a much more fluid skater). Hagens isn't falling out of number 1 spot because he's smallish and not elite skating, it's the lack of elite skill. He's a floor player, meaning that he's well rounded enough to survive but he's not a ceiling player meaning that individual talents rise above everyone else.

Noone is handing McKenna 1oa or claiming he's an elite prospect just because of points, kid has a skillset that few others have. Even then, he's only 'consensus #1' (for now) because right now he is so far ahead of the field. Roobroeck looks like a top nhl prospect, absolutely amazing prospect (already 6'4) but McKenna has shown a level of skill he never had. Bjork has had some disappointing performances, Preston is quite a bit behind him, noone is really shown the level of performance or skill to be even talked about. It's a huge gap right now, one of the biggest we've seen in a while. Though, to be fair, I haven't watch Stenburg this year but I've heard he's been great.

 

[Fyodorov]

I'm truly baffled that you can cast so much doubt on McKenna but be so certain about Hagens.

I get it, people were very hostile to me having Fantilli above Bedard on my draft lists (but weirdly, no hostility to having Byfield, Raymond, and Sanderson above Lafreniere, I should have gotten a lot more flack for having Stutzle as low as I did). I didn't make it into a war, I didn't make it a mission. I get to look back proudly for having Fantilli above Bedard in 4 of the 5 lists I made that year.

But again, Bedard has been fantastic. He's come exactly as advertised. Almost 70 point pace at 19, set to be a point per game career player... that's exactly what I was expecting. Go back in the predicting how many points Bedard would score in his rookie season thread... I posted '60 pts in 65 games, 20g 40 assists, -25'. He really wasn't too far off that.

McKenna... he doesn't have the same criticisms Hagens has. Projecting those criticisms onto McKenna ignores what those criticisms are. Hagens doesn't have the same skill level as we would like to see in top picks, he's not explosive, and he's not elusive (elusiveness is the thing that holds Bedard back from being elite). Hagens size is fine (though McKenna is up to 6'1, he's more than fine there), Hagens skating is okay for the type of game he plays (though, McKenna is about as fast as a skater, McKenna is a much more fluid skater). Hagens isn't falling out of number 1 spot because he's smallish and not elite skating, it's the lack of elite skill. He's a floor player, meaning that he's well rounded enough to survive but he's not a ceiling player meaning that individual talents rise above everyone else.

Noone is handing McKenna 1oa or claiming he's an elite prospect just because of points, kid has a skillset that few others have. Even then, he's only 'consensus #1' (for now) because right now he is so far ahead of the field. Roobroeck looks like a top nhl prospect, absolutely amazing prospect (already 6'4) but McKenna has shown a level of skill he never had. Bjork has had some disappointing performances, Preston is quite a bit behind him, noone is really shown the level of performance or skill to be even talked about. It's a huge gap right now, one of the biggest we've seen in a while. Though, to be fair, I haven't watch Stenburg this year but I've heard he's been great.

In a thread full of some fairly deranged posting, the idea that "Bedard has been fantastic. He's come exactly as advertised." is somehow significantly upping the insanity.

 

[OKR]

Hagens at 6th would be a insane get, he might not be a generational top 1 pick but he is a top 3 pick in 9/10 of drafts.

 

[Giant Panda]

In a thread full of some fairly deranged posting, the idea that "Bedard has been fantastic. He's come exactly as advertised." is somehow significantly upping the insanity.

Bedard has been fantastic, how many 19 year olds are putting up 70 pt seasons on such a crappy team?

Bedard is playing pretty much what I expected him to be. Some people (aka most people) overhyped him but he's playing to what I feel good scouts predicted him to be. Some got caught in the hype, some didn't.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Wait so youre telling me the country that has a greater number of draft picks in the later rounds where getting an nhler is extremely slim, has a worse hit rate percentage than another country. Like yeah no shit. What a lazy and flawed way to try and prove this point.

There’s no way you can be this dense. Everyone knows R2-R7 picks from outside Canada have a greater chance at making the NHL and becoming regulars than their CHL counterparts. The AHL rule obviously impacts this, but that’s my point — CHL picks outside of the slam dunks up top are more likely to never see the NHL. They personify wasted picks.

Remember Cap Friendly’s annual expiry list? Majority were CHL prospects, some R2 and R3 picks. Wasteful activity.

Look at this season. Those non-Canadians drafted from outside R1 between 2016-2021 with at least one NHL game this season outnumber R2-R7 Canadians by almost a 2:1 ratio. And that’s just skaters.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

This thread was not what I was expecting

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Firstly, I said 21U, not under 21. Secondly, 13/82 is 15.8%, not 6%.

21 and under and U21 is the same in this context, as in 20-year-olds playing in the U20 Four Nations.

And my mistake on the percentage, but it doesn’t change the fact that recently-drafted Canadians are not the dominant group as you suggest. Average at best is the trend. Getting drafted and not making it or being denied a contract and losing an NHL affiliation is way worse than not getting drafted at all since it represents a complete failure on the prospect’s part instead of a scouting oversight or preference.

 

[macbowes]

21 and under and U21 is the same in this context, as in 20-year-olds playing in the U20 Four Nations.

And my mistake on the percentage, but it doesn’t change the fact that recently-drafted Canadians are not the dominant group as you suggest. Average at best is the trend. Getting drafted and not making it or being denied a contract and losing an NHL affiliation is way worse than not getting drafted at all since it represents a complete failure on the prospect’s part instead of a scouting oversight or preference.

21U = 21 and under, U21 = under 21. Regardless, it's semantics. My point stands, and that is Canadians are indeed having a strong wave. If you disagree based on the same data, that's up to you, I posted the screenshots that I was referring to.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm truly baffled that you can cast so much doubt on McKenna but be so certain about Hagens.

I get it, people were very hostile to me having Fantilli above Bedard on my draft lists (but weirdly, no hostility to having Byfield, Raymond, and Sanderson above Lafreniere, I should have gotten a lot more flack for having Stutzle as low as I did). I didn't make it into a war, I didn't make it a mission. I get to look back proudly for having Fantilli above Bedard in 4 of the 5 lists I made that year.

But again, Bedard has been fantastic. He's come exactly as advertised. Almost 70 point pace at 19, set to be a point per game career player... that's exactly what I was expecting. Go back in the predicting how many points Bedard would score in his rookie season thread... I posted '60 pts in 65 games, 20g 40 assists, -25'. He really wasn't too far off that.

McKenna... he doesn't have the same criticisms Hagens has. Projecting those criticisms onto McKenna ignores what those criticisms are. Hagens doesn't have the same skill level as we would like to see in top picks, he's not explosive, and he's not elusive (elusiveness is the thing that holds Bedard back from being elite). Hagens size is fine (though McKenna is up to 6'1, he's more than fine there), Hagens skating is okay for the type of game he plays (though, McKenna is about as fast as a skater, McKenna is a much more fluid skater). Hagens isn't falling out of number 1 spot because he's smallish and not elite skating, it's the lack of elite skill. He's a floor player, meaning that he's well rounded enough to survive but he's not a ceiling player meaning that individual talents rise above everyone else.

Excuse me, I did not say I think McKenna isn't the best player for 2026. I ranked him first in my first list for 2026.

There's a difference between believing someone is the best player in a draft and believing they are an unchallengeable player who has locked up a slot a year in advance.

Your framing is completely ridiculous, considering you are the one that suggests Hagens is the 6th best player in the NHL draft. That's what you said, right? I don't want to misquote you.

Of course you believe your nation's player is special and different. Hate to break it to you, the same things were told to us (mostly by the Canadian media) about Lafreniere and Bedard. I personally don't see what makes McKenna special and different, as you claim he is.

At this point, I'm going to be more skeptical going forward and not buy into the groupthink and media propaganda. Doing so the first two times gave results of players who haven't become what they were billed as.

 

[Giant Panda]

Excuse me, I did not say I think McKenna isn't the best player for 2026. I ranked him first in my first list for 2026.

There's a difference between believing someone is the best player in a draft and believing they are an unchallengeable player who has locked up a slot a year in advance.

Your framing is completely ridiculous, considering you are the one that suggests Hagens is the 6th best player in the NHL draft. That's what you said, right? I don't want to misquote you.

Of course you believe your nation's player is special and different. Hate to break it to you, the same things were told to us (mostly by the Canadian media) about Lafreniere and Bedard. I personally don't see what makes McKenna special and different, as you claim he is.

At this point, I'm going to be more skeptical going forward and not buy into the groupthink and media propaganda. Doing so the first two times gave results of players who haven't become what they were billed as.

Yes, here's the top 15 list I posted Monday of players I've watched. It's not best players, it's best prospects/ ones I project to be best.

1. Schaeffer
2. Misa
3. Desnoyers
4. Frondell
5. McQueen
6. Hagens
7. Eklund
8. Martone
9. Mrtka
10. Smith
11. Bear
12. O'Brien
13. Nesbett
14. Hensler
15. Ryabkin

Nobody cares where players are from. I had no issues having Raymond above Lafreniere, Jiricek over Wright, and Hughes over Power. Me dropping Hagens down isn't country based, it's skill based.

Using Bedard and Lafreniere, players I had ranked 2nd and 4th on my draft rankings, as proof of my favouritism... doesn't hold water. I've definitely been biased and am biased, I used to overrate Russians and Finnish players, used to underrate CHL (especially Q) players. Now, I find I undervalue Russian players because I struggle to adjust to the Russian leagues quality drops (and a lot less viewings, I stopped watching KHL outside of a select viewings).

Good for you for being skeptical, I'm glad. Being skeptical doesn't mean being so defensive that others have different opinions, being skeptical means listening to why they have different opinions.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

So you admit what I say is true, but as long as you can frame it as only "the CHL being overrated" and not a "crazy conspiracy."

Okay well you can call it whatever you want (after you attack me personally yet admit the contents of my argument are valid)

Canada's players take up slots that don't approximate their eventual NHL draft success, while essentially every other country sees their players perpetually under-drafted. This difference will get even more stark this year. We are told Canada will claim 20 or more first round slots. They've already claimed the 2025, 2026 and 2027 first overall slots.

When will this end? What reason is there for it to not end? Shouldn't we all agree, if we want a fair process, that it shouldn't work this way?

He didn't. I get it, everything and everyone you don't like as an American is rigged and unfair against you, and everyone who disagrees with you actually admits you're right when you twist and twist and twist everything they say until it has no meaning (aside from whatever meaning you decide to self-servingly ascribe to it).

I thought it was funny at first, but now it's just sad, and quickly declining from there.

This will end when you stop allowing it to or making it happen in your head, the only place it exists.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Of course you believe your nation's player is special and different.

Incredible level's of projection.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I’ve got to say, if the Canadian media was conspiring together to manipulate the draft rankings I wish they had more fun with it or did something cooler with the resources they were devoting towards it.

 

[Peasy]

Don't wrestle with pigs.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

21U = 21 and under, U21 = under 21. Regardless, it's semantics. My point stands, and that is Canadians are indeed having a strong wave. If you disagree based on the same data, that's up to you, I posted the screenshots that I was referring to.

Canadian players join the NHL earlier than Americans (NCAA) and Europeans (European championships).

I don't see anything crazy about the U21s. Bedard isn't that strong - Celebrini, Wright, Fantilli and beyond... practically only Americans or Europeans among the best (Hutson, Cooley, Slafkovsky, Carlsson, Demidov, Michkov, Smith, Gauthier).

The best defenders and goalkeepers will emerge and then it will probably be even less crazy.

Even with its strong young generation, Canada got only 1/3 world elite players and the worst is yet to come with the collapse in the number of young licensees observed in recent years.

In a redraft, Canadian players are generally ranked lower, starting in draft +1.

2024 is a prime example. Seven Canadians were in the top nine of the 2024 draft... and now... in a redraft +1, there are only three at most, alongside Hutson, Helenius, Demidov, Buium, Surin, Artamonov, and Levshunov.

 

[Mathieukferland]

I don't see anything crazy about the U21s. Bedard isn't that strong - Celebrini

Go watch Ligue Magnus if you think those two aren’t that strong, it’s a bit of tell that you don’t watch the NHL if that is your opinion. I know the games are in the middle of the night for you but they are the most productive teenagers since McDavid and better than anyone else you have on that list; Celebrini in particular looks as if he’s the most complete 18 year old to enter the league in the last 20 years, even if McDavid’s point totals were slightly higher.

For all of Pavel’s "ideas" shall we call them, at least he’s as well informed as anyone and watches the games.