Craig Button List Spring 2025

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Okay so three paragraphs calling me crazy. Didn’t try to rebut a thing I’ve said about the data. Of course discussing the truth you want hidden doesn’t suit you. You want it to seem all organic and innocent. Well guess what? Every country other than Canada now views it as an illegitimate process where their country gets shafted.
There is nothing to rebut, you're having a tantrum because for some weird reason you desperately care where Hagens gets drafted. There is no truth to hide. You are alleging a bizarre, unprecedented conspiracy. Because you have no leg to stand on for this conspiracy, you're also claiming people whole countries agree with you. There isn't even a process to rail against as illegitimate, it is a draft set up by the league where every team has the identical incentive to take the best player.

The draft is not a tournament or prize for some country, it is a means of dispersing talent that comes into the NHL. It is not rigged by a bunch of conspirators to try to get an outcome that no one gives much thought to. To believe that people would risk their jobs and reputations on a large scale, with no evidence ever having come up to suggest such a thing, all for a goal that no one even cares about, is bizarre. There are no parades or celebrations in Canada, or any country, over some prospect getting taken first overall, better yet to a scale where hundreds of people in prominent positions are conspiring to get that outcome. Players from some countries, or more likely some leagues, are very likely undervalued or overvalued. It happens. When Montreal was the smartest team in the NHL, it realized before others that NCAA players were undervalued in the 1970s. It also happens that sometimes, a country or league is going to have a strong or weak year, as is very likely the case this year.

And yes, your posts on this topic are crazy.
 
There is nothing to rebut, you're having a tantrum because for some weird reason you desperately care where Hagens gets drafted. There is no truth to hide. You are alleging a bizarre, unprecedented conspiracy. Because you have no leg to stand on for this conspiracy, you're also claiming people whole countries agree with you. There isn't even a process to rail against as illegitimate, it is a draft set up by the league where every team has the identical incentive to take the best player.

The draft is not a tournament or prize for some country, it is a means of dispersing talent that comes into the NHL. It is not rigged by a bunch of conspirators to try to get an outcome that no one gives much thought to. To believe that people would risk their jobs and reputations on a large scale, with no evidence ever having come up to suggest such a thing, all for a goal that no one even cares about, is bizarre. There are no parades or celebrations in Canada, or any country, over some prospect getting taken first overall, better yet to a scale where hundreds of people in prominent positions are conspiring to get that outcome. Players from some countries, or more likely some leagues, are very likely undervalued or overvalued. It happens. When Montreal was the smartest team in the NHL, it realized before others that NCAA players were undervalued in the 1970s. It also happens that sometimes, a country or league is going to have a strong or weak year, as is very likely the case this year.

And yes, your posts on this topic are crazy.

There is no conspiracy but there is a lot of (mostly unconscious) bias amongst NHL decision makers, the vast majority of whom are Canadian. The level of the CHL is waaay overrated in the NHL scouting community. It's not 1983 anymore but a lot of GMs draft like it still is.
 
There is no conspiracy but there is a lot of (mostly unconscious) bias amongst NHL decision makers, the vast majority of whom are Canadian. The level of the CHL is waaay overrated in the NHL scouting community. It's not 1983 anymore but a lot of GMs draft like it still is.
Yeah the CHL may be overrated, and yet my posts are referring to a crazy conspiracy that is being floated. It's expected that the biggest "local" development stream would garner more focus than ones much farther away. It's quite another thing to suggest conspiracy with a straight face.
 
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There is no conspiracy but there is a lot of (mostly unconscious) bias amongst NHL decision makers, the vast majority of whom are Canadian. The level of the CHL is waaay overrated in the NHL scouting community. It's not 1983 anymore but a lot of GMs draft like it still is.
There's most certainly a convenience bias. Much easier to have scouts in Canada, scouts who are from Canada, considering most of the knowledgeable hockey minds in North America are Canadian. Considering the NHL is in North America, not surprising there aren't more European scouts.

These things are obvious, but the draft is not a grand conspiracy like someone believes it is.
 
You’re including 22-year-olds in your list when you yourself said U21. Nearly all NHL players from the 2021 draft are 22 years old.

And I just don’t see how Canada’s on a “heater” when only seven of this year’s top-30 rookie scorers are from Canada. The 2022 draft is not trending upward. Of the top-25 overall scorers from that class, only seven are Canadian, or 8 percent of the 87 who were drafted. Americans have 6 in the top-25, which is 12 percent of their total 2022 pool. Only two Canadians from 2022 have played more than half this seasons. Americans have four.

Anyway, the point stands — The percentage of Canadian draft picks who hit is no better than average considering they make up 40 percent of the average draft class. The Americans are producing nearly the same number of current NHL regulars and top rookie scorers per draft class despite making up a little over 20 percent, or half of what Canada provides.

And even if you included Canada’s notable 2021 class, you still get similar hit rates. Canada has 13 NHL regulars to claim (40+ games this season), which is six percent of the 82 who were drafted. For the U.S., it’s eight NHL regulars from a pool of 50 draft picks, or 16 percent — double the hit rate of Canada.

Quality over quantity.
Firstly, I said 21U, not under 21. Secondly, 13/82 is 15.8%, not 6%.
 
Schaefer's first game in the OHL was October 10th

This list was published September 18th

All CHL leagues started after September 20th, the NCAA started October 4th, USHL started September 18th.

All after the list was released.
Okay and you just ignored what I said.

Schaefer's first hockey game of the 2024-25 process was long over. His "first "OHL game" might've yet to been played, but plenty of people moved him up due to a strong Hlinka tournament. There were plenty of leagues that had also started up.

Trying to attach Bob McKenzie's list on September 18th to coming into the year is flawed. It was not coming into the year. It was after the year had started. If McKenzie had made that list hypothetically on July 25, which would've been a true approximation of coming into the year, I don't think he would've been listed in the top 4.
 
Yeah the CHL may be overrated, and yet my posts are referring to a crazy conspiracy that is being floated. It's expected that the biggest "local" development stream would garner more focus than ones much farther away. It's quite another thing to suggest conspiracy with a straight face.
So you admit what I say is true, but as long as you can frame it as only "the CHL being overrated" and not a "crazy conspiracy."

Okay well you can call it whatever you want (after you attack me personally yet admit the contents of my argument are valid)

Canada's players take up slots that don't approximate their eventual NHL draft success, while essentially every other country sees their players perpetually under-drafted. This difference will get even more stark this year. We are told Canada will claim 20 or more first round slots. They've already claimed the 2025, 2026 and 2027 first overall slots.

When will this end? What reason is there for it to not end? Shouldn't we all agree, if we want a fair process, that it shouldn't work this way?
 
So some stuffy governing body needs to speak out for fans to be of a certain opinion?

Well to corroborate your claims that Canada is somehow rigging the NHL draft, and that everyone outside Canada knows it, yes, you would need a bit more than "Me a few other unhinged posters on HF feel that way".

It’s no secret that Europeans don’t believe in the draft process. They claim every year on this website that the North Americans are underrating their players and don’t capture their true level. Now we’ve arrived at the same point with Americans. Craig Button has showcased that.

Has he? Craig Button, the TSN draft commentator, showcased that, by releasing a ranking list where the American players are lower than usual? Does Craig Button run the NHL draft? Is this a Craig Button-world, and we're all just living in it? Is Craig Button in the room with us right now?

Or is it just that you had a strangely emotional reaction to seeing some media scout rank your favorite prospect lower than you would have him, and that you needed to make up some sort of conspiracy narrative to cope with it?

Canada is on their own island here. They are the only one that believes in the legitimacy of the NHL Draft.

It's hard to believe for someone who posts on here as often as you do, but it seems like you might not understand what the NHL draft is. It's not a graduation ceremony for the best junior players in the world. And unlike what you (and possibly a few other weirdly nationalistic prospect-lovers) seem to believe, it's not a competition between nations to see who can produce the best prospects; Canada gains absolutely nothing from having the most 1st round NHLers. The NHL draft is mostly just a prediction market. Individual teams essentially place bets on who will be the most valuable players in a given cohort, and have a vested interest in picking correctly. Teams that I'll note, are largely owned by American interests, and mostly represent American markets.

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about when you say "the legitimacy of the NHL draft". Are you saying NHL teams knowingly pick players that they know will be worse, all to satisfy some sort of Canadian supremacy agenda?
 
So you admit what I say is true, but as long as you can frame it as only "the CHL being overrated" and not a "crazy conspiracy."

Okay well you can call it whatever you want (after you attack me personally yet admit the contents of my argument are valid)

Canada's players take up slots that don't approximate their eventual NHL draft success, while essentially every other country sees their players perpetually under-drafted. This difference will get even more stark this year. We are told Canada will claim 20 or more first round slots. They've already claimed the 2025, 2026 and 2027 first overall slots.

When will this end? What reason is there for it to not end? Shouldn't we all agree, if we want a fair process, that it shouldn't work this way?
Work what way? As of right now, aren't the 2026 & 2027 1OAs near consensus? 2025 is still a discussion but there are multiple viable Canadian candidates. Why would any of these particular picks be evidence of a conspiracy?

And what exactly is the conspiracy that you're trying to describe? Is it that pundits (like Button or whoever) tend to favor the upside of Canadian players? Is it perhaps due to their own nationalistic bias and/or to keep the Canadian hockey supremacy narrative going? Maybe - I guess that would depend on each pundit, but I don't know why you'd care so much about loudmouth prognosticators who are just trying to get clicks.

Or is it that NHL teams, independent of each other, are essentially delegitimizing the draft because they are purposely drafting Canadian players higher in the first couple rounds than they deserve, for reasons that are not clear to anyone in this thread. If so, that's quite a claim that requires an enormous burden of proof. I also asked earlier for proof for the claim that Europeans believe the draft process isn't legitimate anymore.
 
So you admit what I say is true, but as long as you can frame it as only "the CHL being overrated" and not a "crazy conspiracy."

Okay well you can call it whatever you want (after you attack me personally yet admit the contents of my argument are valid)

Canada's players take up slots that don't approximate their eventual NHL draft success, while essentially every other country sees their players perpetually under-drafted. This difference will get even more stark this year. We are told Canada will claim 20 or more first round slots. They've already claimed the 2025, 2026 and 2027 first overall slots.

When will this end? What reason is there for it to not end? Shouldn't we all agree, if we want a fair process, that it shouldn't work this way?
I am saying that your posts are crazy, not that what you say is true. I already posted in this thread that it's very possible that the CHL could be overvalued. These crazy posts consistently convey a bizarre sense of what the draft is, and this one continues that streak. Canada, just like every country, doesn't claim slots in the draft or first overall picks in years to come. Teams draft players. What country they come from is trivia. Results matter, the draft is all projection.

The 2022 and 2023 NHL drafts had fewer CHLers and Canadians taken in the first round than the proportion of CHL and Canadian products in the NHL at the time. I do not recall any crazy ravings about a grand conspiracy against Canada. Most people grasp that the draft is comprised of teams trying to pick the player they expect to be best for their team, not teams conspiring to secure draft positions for players from one league or country.
 
You yourself have claimed Dupont is the best prospect you’ve ever seen, and somehow him being the favourite to be the best player from the 2027 vintage is evidence of some conspiracy?
Where did I say Canadians never deserve the first overall? I view myself as fair. I will predict the player I view as the best player as the player that should be the first overall pick. Of course I prefer to see my country succeed, but ultimately the best players are the best players. I put away the flags when it comes to giving my opinion of who is the best.

I have actually predicted Canadians as representing the best player in the draft the prior five years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024). Maybe in hindsight I succumbed to the narratives in favor of Lafreniere and Bedard (at least to the extent they were propped up), and now I see my mistake. The best player in 2020 is not Canadian. The best player in 2021 likely isn't Canadian. The best player in 2022 isn't Canadian. 2023, it's very uncertain. So we're left with 2024 is looking good (although no one else has reached the NHL full time, so it's extremely early)? Obviously this is not computing.

This year? We can pick apart subjective aspects of all of the top 5-10 prospects we like. There is no Connor McDavid in this draft. But the reality is that Hagens has the most thorough resume of any of the top prospects in this draft. He has outproduced all the others at international tournaments over the years. He has the most consistent league resume of the group (he doesn't have the actual terrible Schaefer or Misa 2023-24 seasons). This should've been the year the Canadians, despite their competitive spirit, said we aren't going to push it. The Americans earned it this year. They have the best player. Instead, they've ran a hit campaign all season against the best American player (and the whole 2025 draft class of the USA).
 
Where did I say Canadians never deserve the first overall? I view myself as fair. I will predict the player I view as the best player as the player that should be the first overall pick. Of course I prefer to see my country succeed, but ultimately the best players are the best players. I put away the flags when it comes to giving my opinion of who is the best.

I have actually predicted Canadians as representing the best player in the draft the prior five years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024). Maybe in hindsight I succumbed to the narratives in favor of Lafreniere and Bedard (at least to the extent they were propped up), and now I see my mistake. The best player in 2020 is not Canadian. The best player in 2021 likely isn't Canadian. The best player in 2022 isn't Canadian. 2023, it's very uncertain. So we're left with 2024 is looking good (although no one else has reached the NHL full time, so it's extremely early)? Obviously this is not computing.

This year? We can pick apart subjective aspects of all of the top 5-10 prospects we like. There is no Connor McDavid in this draft. But the reality is that Hagens has the most thorough resume of any of the top prospects in this draft. He has outproduced all the others at international tournaments over the years. He has the most consistent league resume of the group (he doesn't have the actual terrible Schaefer or Misa 2023-24 seasons). This should've been the year the Canadians, despite their competitive spirit, said we aren't going to push it. The Americans earned it this year. They have the best player. Instead, they've ran a hit campaign all season against the best American player (and the whole 2025 draft class of the USA).
Why are you bringing nationalism into this to this degree? If Hagens or Schaefer go 1OA it has nothing to do with Canada or the US "deserving" anything. The players earn what they get, and end of the day the teams are the ones that decide who that player is going to be. Like you are saying that you are fair and unbiased but you are talking about this like you are being robbed of something as an American when you just flat out aren't. If you believe that Hagens is the best player in the class then stand on it...someone is getting a steal a bit later in the draft. He will get his chance to prove it.
 
Work what way? As of right now, aren't the 2026 & 2027 1OAs near consensus? 2025 is still a discussion but there are multiple viable Canadian candidates. Why would any of these particular picks be evidence of a conspiracy?
Oh yeah, and I guess 2020 and 2023 were consensus? How is that looking? Lafreniere is maybe a top 10 player in the 2020 draft. It's early for Bedard. He isn't having the success predicted. Better than Lafreniere, but it's certainly up for debate if he's the best 2023 eligible (certainly not the generational player some told us he was). Could also theoretically get worse, like it did for Lafreniere relative to draft position. 2022 was consensus until Shane Wright hit some struggles, and he couldn't possibly be a slam dunk. I actually think Wright is doing kind of well relative to where he was selected.

Who is actually claiming McKenna is consensus? He's all the faults people claim of Hagens (smallish, pretty good skating but not elite skating), yet he doesn't play center. Yeah, he's dominated the CHL in points. That was the same case for Bedard being at a level we see he's currently not at. Maybe it'll be true for McKenna. Maybe he'll simply end up the best player in 2026, but the lack of curiosity and just handing him the 1OA because he's the highest scoring Canadian player in junior hockey in the last few years is the same thing we saw with Lafreniere and Bedard.

2027 is far out. Of course that caveat is needed. We don't really know how players will develop, but let's be real, everyone knows that DuPont is going first overall, barring something crazy like significant injuries or off ice issues. And you know what? I could grant you that as probably being legit. DuPont is probably the actual level of player where that applies (not whatever we're told Lafreniere, Bedard, and McKenna are). Of course the issue here is not one year. It's that we're talking about this being virtually every year.

And what exactly is the conspiracy that you're trying to describe? Is it that pundits (like Button or whoever) tend to favor the upside of Canadian players? Is it perhaps due to their own nationalistic bias and/or to keep the Canadian hockey supremacy narrative going? Maybe - I guess that would depend on each pundit, but I don't know why you'd care so much about loudmouth prognosticators who are just trying to get clicks.
I have been very clear about this.

It is a combination of many things.

The pundit class (the majority of which are Canadians) has trafficked in these faulty narratives all season about the American draft class, including the best player in the class. The fans (the majority of which are Canadians) has done the same. NHL front offices also are majority Canadian, and we get a good look at what they think through Bob McKenzie's draft rankings. Their quotes and voting history in his draft rankings told us essentially the same.

Do I also think there's just a general bias towards Canadian leagues? Yeah, when you combine that the majority of those interested, whether with an active role in the NHL or a passive role, live in Canada and/or have a natural allegiance to the Canadian leagues that they don't have to other leagues? I think you get plenty of bias. It's what they know. It's what they've come to enjoy. It certainly leads to biases.
 
"Despite our competitive spirit, we aren't going to push it. The Americans earned it this year."

Does that help?
Well no, you can play thick, but the damage is essentially done.

One random sentence of an internet message board poster when the draft cycle is nearly over certainly isn't what I'm talking about, and you know that already.
 
Why are you bringing nationalism into this to this degree? If Hagens or Schaefer go 1OA it has nothing to do with Canada or the US "deserving" anything. The players earn what they get, and end of the day the teams are the ones that decide who that player is going to be. Like you are saying that you are fair and unbiased but you are talking about this like you are being robbed of something as an American when you just flat out aren't. If you believe that Hagens is the best player in the class then stand on it...someone is getting a steal a bit later in the draft. He will get his chance to prove it.
Because of course it's nationalistic. Every fan here who shows any interest towards international hockey wants to see their players have more success in the NHL draft. That obviously also brings more chance for success in the NHL (those drafted higher of course have it way easier post-draft). That's like asking why fans of differing NHL teams bicker about which team's player is better.

Yet, it's all supposed to be fair, despite the competition. There are boundaries. The Canadians control the institutions. They ultimately get to make the decisions, and they decided they wanted to push it. They did cross a line. They've ran a hit campaign all season against the best American player of the last 9 drafts and against the whole American draft class.

So now we've arrived at a situation where the Americans feel wronged by the Canadians for how they've acted. If you're lamenting that this has turned hostile, maybe you should've spoken up at the time.
 
Pure comedy. The draft has no real significance to anything. It is just teams selecting players. If we’re throwing our tin foil hats on, do it over something that actually has an impact on player development and look at the tendency in recent years for American players to get unlimited opportunity from the get-go despite mediocre returns while everybody else (including top Canadian draft selections like Lafreniere, Byfield, Clarke, and Wright) are forced into roles that could not be worse for their development.
 
Oh yeah, and I guess 2020 and 2023 were consensus? How is that looking? Lafreniere is maybe a top 10 player in the 2020 draft. It's early for Bedard. He isn't having the success predicted. Better than Lafreniere, but it's certainly up for debate if he's the best 2023 eligible (certainly not the generational player some told us he was). Could also theoretically get worse, like it did for Lafreniere relative to draft position. 2022 was consensus until Shane Wright hit some struggles, and he couldn't possibly be a slam dunk. I actually think Wright is doing kind of well relative to where he was selected.

Who is actually claiming McKenna is consensus? He's all the faults people claim of Hagens (smallish, pretty good skating but not elite skating), yet he doesn't play center. Yeah, he's dominated the CHL in points. That was the same case for Bedard being at a level we see he's currently not at. Maybe it'll be true for McKenna. Maybe he'll simply end up the best player in 2026, but the lack of curiosity and just handing him the 1OA because he's the highest scoring Canadian player in junior hockey in the last few years is the same thing we saw with Lafreniere and Bedard.

2027 is far out. Of course that caveat is needed. We don't really know how players will develop, but let's be real, everyone knows that DuPont is going first overall, barring something crazy like significant injuries or off ice issues. And you know what? I could grant you that as probably being legit. DuPont is probably the actual level of player where that applies (not whatever we're told Lafreniere, Bedard, and McKenna are). Of course the issue here is not one year. It's that we're talking about this being virtually every year.


I have been very clear about this.

It is a combination of many things.

The pundit class (the majority of which are Canadians) has trafficked in these faulty narratives all season about the American draft class, including the best player in the class. The fans (the majority of which are Canadians) has done the same. NHL front offices also are majority Canadian, and we get a good look at what they think through Bob McKenzie's draft rankings. Their quotes and voting history in his draft rankings told us essentially the same.

Do I also think there's just a general bias towards Canadian leagues? Yeah, when you combine that the majority of those interested, whether with an active role in the NHL or a passive role, live in Canada and/or have a natural allegiance to the Canadian leagues that they don't have to other leagues? I think you get plenty of bias. It's what they know. It's what they've come to enjoy. It certainly leads to biases.

I didn't bring up 2020 or 2023. Like at all. I quoted your post where you brought up '25, '26 & '27 and stated that the 1OA have already been staked to Canada, for what I can only assume is a result of this bias/conspiracy. Again, not sure why you felt the need to bring up 2020 & 2023. My only question was that for all three of those years, Canadians have a legitimate argument for 1OA. Its clear you have Hagens first for this year, but reasonable arguments have been made for others as well. And that's cool - time will tell. As for '26 & '27, you may not believe in McKenna or Dupont (again you could be right in the long run), but it is disingenuous to play dumb and not admit that if those drafts happened today, they wouldn't be the first overalls. And that's all I claimed.

What I don't understand about you is you're speaking as though
1. Hagens is objectively the best player when of course that isn't true. He could be and I would be ecstatic if Montreal picked him and he's got a solid argument for #1 but so too do others.
2. Late risers don't exist. Let's go with him having the best resume so far.. so what. You claimed yourself for 2020 and 2023 just because the pedigree or consensus is there, doesn't mean it will project to the NHL. Again, I like Hagens and would never cheer against the kid, but in what world is it not reasonable that some GMs think other will project better.
3. Finally, you claim hit pieces and orchestrated campaigns against US players. But is that really more reasonable then pundits just having a different opinion then you? I'll grant you that of course there may be some national bias or convenience bias (if they tend to watch CHL players more given they're in Canada). No one in this thread has said otherwise and acknowledge that bias is a real thing. Where people are calling you out is this extraordinary claim of conspiracy and delegitimized draft processes. Its crazy talk. You haven't even proven that Button or whoever is in fact putting out hit pieces. He may be a loon but you're making heavy claims with nothing to back them up.

The burden of proof is on you and unfortunately, you just don't come close to meeting it. Still waiting on proof that Europeans believe the NHL draft is not legitimate btw.
 
Pure comedy. The draft has no real significance to anything. It is just teams selecting players. If we’re throwing our tin foil hats on,
In fairness to the poster, this is not, in essence, different to comment boards on these stories. I can't count the number of times where a commenter has said that Scout or Evaluator A has rated a player from Team B (or, I suppose, Country B) lower than a player from Team/Country C, so Scout A is clearly biased against Team/Country C. It's stupid, but it happens.

Where this one goes off the rails is to suggest there is some kind of grand conspiracy among all the scouts or columnists to, I dunno, keep his country down or make another country feel better about themselves?

Any rational person would say 'who cares' to all of this. Teams are making choices to impact their business. If the general manager of a hockey team is relying on Craig Button to determine who they draft in the first round in June, and Craig Button is really determined to elevate Canada's players for purely nationalistic reasons (and boy, we need evidence of all of those things, not just the blisteringly paranoid rantings of an internet poster) then NHL player development is well and truly screwed.
 
There is no conspiracy but there is a lot of (mostly unconscious) bias amongst NHL decision makers, the vast majority of whom are Canadian. The level of the CHL is waaay overrated in the NHL scouting community. It's not 1983 anymore but a lot of GMs draft like it still is.
You can argue that Craig Button or whoever is wrong, but that's a completely different argument than what's being proferred here, namely that Canadians are actively looking to promote Canadian players at the expense of other countries. To what end? Who benefits and how? Those questions don't seem to have answers as yet.
 
How does any one have this much time on their hands to continually move goal posts & triple down on ridiculous accusations?
Are Canadians supposed to talk to Schaffer & Misa, and tell them they need to stop doing better because Canada has had an unfair amount of 1st overall picks recently? That the USA deserves to get one because they had a guy that was ranked #1, but all rankings have him falling all year? That the US fans need this "win"?

How can any sane person not take this as ridiculous?
 
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Okay and you just ignored what I said.

Schaefer's first hockey game of the 2024-25 process was long over. His "first "OHL game" might've yet to been played, but plenty of people moved him up due to a strong Hlinka tournament. There were plenty of leagues that had also started up.

Trying to attach Bob McKenzie's list on September 18th to coming into the year is flawed. It was not coming into the year. It was after the year had started. If McKenzie had made that list hypothetically on July 25, which would've been a true approximation of coming into the year, I don't think he would've been listed in the top 4.
My lord you are dense

Preseason rankings start, every single year, in September prior to the CHL and NCAA seasons starting.

You move the goal posts more than any poster on the site

“He wasn’t ever considered close to the 1st prior to the year starting”

Shown evidence he very clearly was

“Yeah, but that doesn’t count because he played 5 games in August, along with every other one of the top prospects in his birth year”
 
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