Craig’s May List

[jfhabs]

Bear, Nesbitt and Fiddler are too low in my opinion. They all have projectable NHL attributes. Teams love that.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

13 to 30 is a crap shoot. The order will be very different from draft lists.

Yeah, and i'd personally expand that to like 11-33.
There appears to be a top tier of 11, a lot of guys could be anywhere in the 2cnd tier depending on if 1 team really likes them.
Cole Mckinney at 56 jumps out at me as a guy who's gonna go way higher.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

NHL central scouting measured him themselves and have him at 5'10 177.

He's already in the neighborhood of the proportionate height-weight combination for a 5'10 NHLer. Hagens would be considered a stocky player if he adds 15 lbs. That doesn't mean he can't get stronger but the easy gains of just adding mass are probably already done unless he becomes an unusually stocky player.



NHL average height is actually increasing to record highs, 73.6 inches per TheAthletic. Scouts are more obsessed with it now than ever before. Analytics staffs factor in height as a variable.



The issue is more that Hagens is not a twig. He's an average build. Just on the short side and currently weak for his size.

There’s no denying the league is getting bigger but teams like Carolina, the Devils, Buffalo, Montreal etc. don’t give a shit. Aho and Jarvis, plus they just got Stankoven. Hughes and Bratt. Suzuki, Caufield, and Hutson. Nuff said. The stats nerds are getting it right.

No offense, but what you’re saying about Hagens’ size is a major nothing-burger. Hagens was 5’9 and 150 when he made the NTDP three years ago. He’s now listed at 5’11, 177. That means he packed on nearly 30 pounds in less than three years. He should add at least 10 more pounds of muscle by 2026-27. My guess is he’ll be listed at 5’11, 185 whenever he debuts.

I watched two seasons worth of Hagens facing NCAA competition and he was over a point a game over a large sample — almost 50 games worth. There is literally no proof he’s consistently weak on the puck. Only times are when he’s significantly overmatched by a size differential, which happens to ALL NHL forwards at one point or another.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

13 to 30 is a crap shoot. The order will be very different from draft lists.

This seems to be one of the more wide open drafts in a while. Even pick 3-10 can go in any which way. I think it will be a fun draft with a lot of surprises

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

If Philly drafts Brady Martin at 6, I’m flying back to Philadelphia to start a riot. For real this draft screams one guy is gonna drop that shouldn’t have and become a legit star. Gonna be very interesting revisiting this draft in a few years.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

If Philly drafts Brady Martin at 6, I’m flying back to Philadelphia to start a riot. For real this draft screams one guy is gonna drop that shouldn’t have and become a legit star. Gonna be very interesting revisiting this draft in a few years.

I really don’t think you have to worry about that. The Flyers have a rocky relationship with Martin’s agent, the same agent who represents Cutter Gauthier and Ryan Johansen. Flyers traded away one of his other players, Farabee(though he’s been terrible lately), and famously passed on Buium. I doubt they are extending the olive branch for someone like Martin. Everything screams Desnoyers will be the pick if he’s there

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I really don’t think you have to worry about that. The Flyers have a rocky relationship with Martin’s agent, the same agent who represents Cutter Gauthier and Ryan Johansen. Flyers traded away one of his other players, Farabee(though he’s been terrible lately), and famously passed on Buium. I doubt they are extending the olive branch for someone like Martin. Everything screams Desnoyers will be the pick if he’s there

Thought the same thing CD would be a great thing for them, but I will come back and riot if
I have to.

 

[JackSlater]

This draft seems so weird. Seems like a draft to trade down in or trade for a future pick. If Hagens does fall like so many projections have him I'd be happy to get him though.

 

[Sendhelplease]

I think that Hagens is suffering from an issue that a lot of less physically impressive players suffer from when it is the draft season. When the games stop being played teams have a much easier time talking themselves into drafting the more physically impressive players and Hagens is no longer impressing scouts with his play. It reminds me of how in the NFL at the start of the draft season there is often a large quarterback with a cannon arm who goes from being a maybe first round pick to being a top 10 selection.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

This draft seems so weird. Seems like a draft to trade down in or trade for a future pick. If Hagens does fall like so many projections have him I'd be happy to get him though.

I agree. This is a draft where having more darts gives you a better chance at hitting a bullseye than just one. There is huge uncertainty in almost every player in the first round.

If i am in the bottom 7 to 12, i try to trade down and get another 1st. But i doubt any one will trade 2 x 1st for one in the 7 to 12 range.

 

[Deebs]

This draft seems so weird. Seems like a draft to trade down in or trade for a future pick. If Hagens does fall like so many projections have him I'd be happy to get him though.

He's not supposed to drop that much is he?

 

[JackSlater]

He's not supposed to drop that much is he?

I don't know but he is lower on a lot of projections than he was most of the year, especially early on. Only takes one team to draft a player though.

 

[rocketdan9]

I see he has Braden Cootes listed at 6'3 201 lbs... does he know something we all don't?

Likely an error. Most websites have him listed as 6'0. He looks like - same height as Brady Martin.

 

[tomd]

I think that Hagens is suffering from an issue that a lot of less physically impressive players suffer from when it is the draft season. When the games stop being played teams have a much easier time talking themselves into drafting the more physically impressive players and Hagens is no longer impressing scouts with his play. It reminds me of how in the NFL at the start of the draft season there is often a large quarterback with a cannon arm who goes from being a maybe first round pick to being a top 10 selection.

Everyone (scouts and GM's included) are now watching the SC playoffs and seeing how smaller less physical players are completely neutralized when time and space are taken away. Happens every year and talented but smaller players always drop. Every team in the top 10 will have to make that determination about Hagens. I have no doubt Hagens will be a very good regular season player...but the playoffs is another story entirely.

 

[Fyodorov]

Everyone (scouts and GM's included) are now watching the SC playoffs and seeing how smaller less physical players are completely neutralized when time and space are taken away. Happens every year and talented but smaller players always drop. Every team in the top 10 will have to make that determination about Hagens. I have no doubt Hagens will be a very good regular season player...but the playoffs is another story entirely.

I think that's unconvincing at best. Dominant teams come and go quickly and have different makeups. It was only a couple years ago Point and Kucherov were dominating in the SCF, as you can make up for the size elsewhere. Teams in the cellar should be trying to add higher level offensive building blocks first then go from there.

Not to mention, Cole McKinney is a guy I would love to have on my hypothetical future playoff team and he's ranked 56th here. Laughable, should be ranked in the late 20s at worst. I think it's just tough for people to admit Pavel B. is basically correct, conspiracy theories aside. Cullen Potter at 46th is also comical.

 

[tomd]

I think that's unconvincing at best. Dominant teams come and go quickly and have different makeups. It was only a couple years ago Point and Kucherov were dominating in the SCF, as you can make up for the size elsewhere. Teams in the cellar should be trying to add higher level offensive building blocks first then go from there.

Not to mention, Cole McKinney is a guy I would love to have on my hypothetical future playoff team and he's ranked 56th here. Laughable, should be ranked in the late 20s at worst. I think it's just tough for people to admit Pavel B. is basically correct, conspiracy theories aside. Cullen Potter at 46th is also comical.

Hagens is arguably the most talented player in this draft class. We’ll see how high he goes.

 

[Zarzh]

I think that Hagens is suffering from an issue that a lot of less physically impressive players suffer from when it is the draft season. When the games stop being played teams have a much easier time talking themselves into drafting the more physically impressive players and Hagens is no longer impressing scouts with his play. It reminds me of how in the NFL at the start of the draft season there is often a large quarterback with a cannon arm who goes from being a maybe first round pick to being a top 10 selection.

The issue is Hagens probably isn't good enough (unless you really love him) and he's tiny. You'll always want a better scorer or more specialized player.