Friedman: Coyotes gauging the market on Chychrun

[JKG33]

If Byfield reaches his potential after Kopitar and Doughty are useful I am perfectly fine with that. Elite is elite, and if LA thinks Byfield is elite he is not dealt for Chychun.
Blake should be able to outbid other packages without including him, so why include him?

It depends on what you think Byfield's potential is. I think he's absolutely at best a Dubois or Johansen. Both good players sure, but you'd be stupid not to trade them for a Chychrun, especially when Chychrun is still young and fits in to the timeline now and long term

 

[BringTheReign]

Armstrong has a reputation for setting a price and not budging. It cost him dearly with OEL in his first off-season but worked very much in his favor with Dvorak and Kuemper. We shall see how the Chychrun situation plays out. Arizona has no reason to be in a hurry. So I expect the price will be met or the player will be kept.

Multiple insiders now seem to be agreeing on the asking price and there are anonymous execs supporting those claims. The price is a “young” roster player that’s worth a 1st (preferably a recent first, himself), a prospect that’s worth at least a 1st (preferably a recent 1st himself), and an actual 1st.

Of course, Arizona fans will say “Great! Clarke, Bjornfot and a 1st!”

While, of course, LA fans will say “Great! Vilardi, Kupari, and a 1st!”

So while we have somewhat of an understanding of the ask, at this point, we really don’t know what it means in terms of practical application.

This is one of the best posts I've ever read on the site. It eloquently captures the absolutely unbridgeable divide in any trade rumors thread. Bravo!

 

[PocketNines]

To me the hypothetical Blues offer is both the most realistic and least desirable to me, and therefore that'll probably be what they get. Teams just aren't going to pony up McTavish/Byfield level prospects in any trade ever. A guy like Neighbors, while still a top prospect, would be much easier for a team like the Blues to stomach, especially when they've had this hole for so long and are in super win-now mode.

Exactly right IMO. If this were two years ago the Blues names being floated would have been Kyrou or Thomas and it would have been a lot more uncomfortable to have these discussions. Nine weeks ago before these reports came out about availability there was an "ARI-STL Blockbuster" thread here with Blues fans asking for Chychrun and I said at this point if I were told that Kyrou had been traded for Chychrun, I'd assume it was straight across. So there are certain prospects other teams see as a bridge too far whereas the Blues have several appealing really good prospects but none are a bridge too far.

 

[BringTheReign]

I would agree. If you guys get Neighbours, you're getting a special player. Not a gamebreaking talent, but a solid contributor to both ends of the ice with great leadership. STL would obviously be getting the better player in Chychrun, but a package of Neighbours, Perunovich, Hofer, and a 1st would be solid value -- all three are fairly certain NHL players and all three have varying degrees of higher-end upside. All three are certain to be "impactful".

This would be a monster package for the 'Yotes, IMO. It's a lot of potential, but that's a top half of the lineup contributor at every position plus a 1st.

 

[rt]

This would be a monster package for the 'Yotes.

I think it would get it done. Not sure STL is willing to go that far all-in.

 

[YP44]

You can’t take Byfield off the table and also take Clarke off the table, though. That’s just gratuitous. The deal with LA, in my opinion, is Clarke, a 1st, and another piece. The question is how valuable they 3rd piece needs to be. Is it Kupari or Vilardi or JAD? Or maybe Bjornfot or Anderson or Grans?

hopefully the deal happens with LA so we can see

 

[YP44]

It depends on what you think Byfield's potential is. I think he's absolutely at best a Dubois or Johansen. Both good players sure, but you'd be stupid not to trade them for a Chychrun, especially when Chychrun is still young and fits in to the timeline now and long term

Like I said if LA thinks he is elite than they hold onto him. If they think his ceiling is Dubois, like you, than they should move him

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I think it would get it done. Not sure STL is willing to go that far all-in.

It would hurt in the long term. But it would swing our cup window back open for the next three years at least. Plus if Tarasenko still wants to leave after the season the Blues can get some futures back that way to make it sting a little less.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think it would get it done. Not sure STL is willing to go that far all-in.

Yeah, it's about 1 piece too much for me. If Bill tells Doug this is what it takes to get a deal done, or else he's being traded somewhere else, I'd have to really think about it though.

 

[JasonDemersWasOkay]

Exactly right IMO. If this were two years ago the Blues names being floated would have been Kyrou or Thomas and it would have been a lot more uncomfortable to have these discussions. Nine weeks ago before these reports came out about availability there was an "ARI-STL Blockbuster" thread here with Blues fans asking for Chychrun and I said at this point if I were told that Kyrou had been traded for Chychrun, I'd assume it was straight across. So there are certain prospects other teams see as a bridge too far whereas the Blues have several appealing really good prospects but none are a bridge too far.

It's not a bad package, it's just that us coyotes fans have had nothing to get excited about except possible trade returns for the last two years so we heighten our expectations waay too much about what our pieces will bring back. From all the reported suitors, Neighbours, Perunovich, Hofer, and a 1st is the best combination of high quality and realistic that I can think of

 

[kinghock]

My fellow Kings will (and have) crucify me for this, but I don't have as high an opinion on Byfield as most. Or at least if he does reach his potential, it'll be so far away that Kopitar and Doughty will be useless.

For Arizona he does have a higher ceiling than Turcotte or Vilardi, and fits in better with a longer term timeline.

I'd throw in a prospect like Kupari or a 2nd (maybe even a protected 1st) if ya'll added Crouse

Kopitar and Doughty is almost useless already.
Please open your eyes.

 

[bleedblue1223]

It's not a bad package, it's just that us coyotes fans have had nothing to get excited about except possible trade returns for the last two years so we heighten our expectations waay too much about what our pieces will bring back. From all the reported suitors, Neighbours, Perunovich, Hofer, and a 1st is the best combination of high quality and realistic that I can think of

Take it for what it's worth, the discussions I've seen with you guys have been way better than some of our major ones of the past. We haven't had the incessant talk of Chychrun guaranteeing us a Cup, so we should be grateful to pay this huge price for him. That was the Miller talk, that was the O'Reilly talk. I remember some of the Spezza talk going in that direction as well. Maybe it's because we are on the umpteenth version of a Chychrun thread, but discussions are much more down to earth and realistic than others.

Pretty sure @PocketNines will agree with me lol, nothing will be worse than those Miller threads.

 

[JKG33]

Of everything I've seen here, the Blues offer of Perunovich, Neighbours, Hofer, 2022 1st is clearly the best. Even if that offer is a pick 3 out of 4 and then a 4th lesser piece its still probably the best. Given the Armstrong connection I feel like they're the most likely.

LA has the pieces to do it, but I'd hate to move Clarke. Byfield (with or without a small plus) is the best I'd do. Or to try and make a comparable to the Blues offer I'd go (pick one from each row)
Turcotte/Vilardi
Bjornfot/Anderson
Kupari/Thomas
2022 1st
But that still isn't as good as the Blues offer.

I don't think the Ducks move any of Zegras, Mctavish or Drysdale for him, nor should they given their timeline.

If the Rangers management is anything like their fans, no deal will get done there.

Those are really the big 3 teams that'd be in on him. Maybe Florida too but I don't know what that deal would look like.

 

[kinghock]

You can’t take Byfield off the table and also take Clarke off the table, though. That’s just gratuitous. The deal with LA, in my opinion, is Clarke, a 1st, and another piece. The question is how valuable they 3rd piece needs to be. Is it Kupari or Vilardi or JAD? Or maybe Bjornfot or Anderson or Grans?

If McTavish is off the table I do not see any reason why Kings should put Clarke for trade.
You should not bet against your own offer.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Take it for what it's worth, the discussions I've seen with you guys have been way better than some of our major ones of the past. We haven't had the incessant talk of Chychrun guaranteeing us a Cup, so we should be grateful to pay this huge price for him. That was the Miller talk, that was the O'Reilly talk. I remember some of the Spezza talk going in that direction as well. Maybe it's because we are on the umpteenth version of a Chychrun thread, but discussions are much more down to earth and realistic than others.

Pretty sure @PocketNines will agree with me lol, nothing will be worse than those Miller threads.

We don't talk about the Miller threads.

Funny tho how RoR was the trade that pushed us over tho.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

We don't talk about the Miller threads.

Funny tho how RoR was the trade that pushed us over tho.

And yet we were still right not to trade either Kyrou or Thomas for him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

We don't talk about the Miller threads.

Funny tho how RoR was the trade that pushed us over tho.

True, the Cup guarantee was basically isolated to Miller though. ROR was just Parayko+Thomas+.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

And yet we were still right not to trade either Kyrou or Thomas for him.

100% agreed.

 

[PocketNines]

It's not a bad package, it's just that us coyotes fans have had nothing to get excited about except possible trade returns for the last two years so we heighten our expectations waay too much about what our pieces will bring back. From all the reported suitors, Neighbours, Perunovich, Hofer, and a 1st is the best combination of high quality and realistic that I can think of

Although I bear responsibility a few weeks ago for saying that price is one I would personally pay (because I feel secure in knowing what I am getting with Chychrun and how that would translate to the Blues), I would now be surprised if you get all of that.

Blues fans have a pretty good feel for both Armstrongs and what they value. I think rt is 100% correct when he says that Bill Armstrong will set a price and wait for it to be met; that is how Doug operates and both men will not waste time hoping the other is going to back down, so they would probably get to work on something realistic that can actually happen. I bet they already have a very good understanding of what a Blues deal would be if it happened. It is probably three of those pieces and not four. And thus it's possible another team still bests the offer. Meaning, I may personally be willing to pay four of those pieces but realistically Doug Armstrong would probably pay a max of three. You'll find that even less appealing, but this helps other teams get in there and beat it.

Since the Blues current cap situation is dollar in dollar out, there are probably multiple ideas about how to do this. Chychrun would not likely be retained though I'm sure the Armstrongs would be able to agree on the value this represents should it be necessary. Because he wouldn't likely be retained, the Blues have to either have a player on LTIR via misfortune or they need to move 4.6M off their roster which points most obviously to Scandella's 3.275M and next to Sundqvist's 2.75M. Our fan base has noticed that Scandella + Sundqvist equals almost exactly Chychrun + Crouse in dollars, FWIW.

 

[rt]

Of everything I've seen here, the Blues offer of Perunovich, Neighbours, Hofer, 2022 1st is clearly the best. Even if that offer is a pick 3 out of 4 and then a 4th lesser piece its still probably the best. Given the Armstrong connection I feel like they're the most likely.

LA has the pieces to do it, but I'd hate to move Clarke. Byfield (with or without a small plus) is the best I'd do. Or to try and make a comparable to the Blues offer I'd go (pick one from each row)
Turcotte/Vilardi
Bjornfot/Anderson
Kupari/Thomas
2022 1st
But that still isn't as good as the Blues offer.

I don't think the Ducks move any of Zegras, Mctavish or Drysdale for him, nor should they given their timeline.

If the Rangers management is anything like their fans, no deal will get done there.

Those are really the big 3 teams that'd be in on him. Maybe Florida too but I don't know what that deal would look like.

That’s a good package. Well done.

 

[PocketNines]

Yeah, it's about 1 piece too much for me. If Bill tells Doug this is what it takes to get a deal done, or else he's being traded somewhere else, I'd have to really think about it though.

This is the exact thing I had in mind back at the beginning when I said I would agree to it. Once I knew I would agree to it in the situation you just described, I looked at the opportunity cost of not doing it and it tipped the balance.

 

[PocketNines]

Take it for what it's worth, the discussions I've seen with you guys have been way better than some of our major ones of the past. We haven't had the incessant talk of Chychrun guaranteeing us a Cup, so we should be grateful to pay this huge price for him. That was the Miller talk, that was the O'Reilly talk. I remember some of the Spezza talk going in that direction as well. Maybe it's because we are on the umpteenth version of a Chychrun thread, but discussions are much more down to earth and realistic than others.

Pretty sure @PocketNines will agree with me lol, nothing will be worse than those Miller threads.

The "only a 2 year window" in my profile is a quote from one of the main Buffalo fans in that experience who insisted we must make the trade. The two years were 2014 and 2015, quite hilariously. It was so ludicrous at the time it was said, and it still is. The funny thing is right now is maybe the moment in Blues time when it's most true, given the ROI they're getting on Kyrou, Thomas and Barbashev this year and next.

 

[PocketNines]

I think it would get it done. Not sure STL is willing to go that far all-in.

IF Crouse were part of it AND IF Bill Armstrong can recoup additional value on both Scandella and Sundqvist AND IF the Armstrongs work with Scandella if Arizona is on his 7 team NTC so that he can approve the deal and they can get him onto a third team ...

Neighbors
Hofer
Perunovich
Scandella
Sundqvist
1st round 2022

for

Chychrun
Crouse

(you may swap Kostin or Bolduc in for any of the prospects if you prefer)

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Except Knies and Niemela are not firsts and probably aren’t valued as such. Every team has prospects that look good after being drafted but that
Doesn’t upgrade their value.

Do a redraft and they would both be 1st rounders, where a player is drafted means nothing. I would gladly rather keep them and give up future 1sts with that logic. ‘22 1st, ‘23 1st, ‘24 1st instead?

Knies is our top forward prospect, Niemela is our top D prospect

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

~6:00 —> https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/jeff-marek-show/marek-friedman-goalie-market-roundup/

Marek and Friedman added Florida, Columbus and the Rangers to the list of teams in the mix, joining Anaheim, L.A., St. Louis, Boston, the Islanders and Calgary.

Marek spitball comp for the Burns deal he keeps talking about was Knight + Lundell + 1st.