As I get older I think Croatian fans are a bit spoiled to the relative success of the NT (at least when talking about the Cros in the diaspora). A country of 4-4.5m people with probably the worst football infrastructure in the EU has made all but two tournaments since independence, only the likes of Germany, Spain, England etc. have a higher success rate. As you said, Croatia had a brutal generation from 2002-2006ish but they still managed to qualify, especially that Euro 2004 team which was carried by Dado Prso and a decent enough defense. I worry a bit about the team post-Modric, the media seems to think everything is fine but I’m not convinced. We will always create decent players but the depth at some positions is shocking even for small country standards (lack of Croatian strikers in the HNL, imagine if Petkovic didn’t regain his form at Dinamo added with Kramaric’s injury? Since Vrsaljko’s injury both the ‘A’ and U21s are playing without a right back!) Only thing which will help is tournaments are expanding, wouldn’t be shocked if in the next 20 years they are expanded again
Croatia is a bit weird. I used to play youth football for Hrvatski Dragovoljac, the (then) 3rd strongest club in Croatia, and I still talk here and there to some of the guys linked to clubs and academies (and refs lol) etc.
Thing is, for all the harm that Mamic has caused over the years (absolutely ruined the league, wasted invaluable years of the Modric generation on inept, puppet managers, etc.) the Dinamo academy took off.
It is now (IMO) one of the best non-top 5 leagues academies out there, and probably (easily) the best in this part of Europe.
Every single kid with an ounce of talent is probably gonna end up at Dinamo sooner or later (most kids anyway) - meaning they spend time in a great football program.
Downside... Every single kid with an ounce of talent is probably gonna end up at Dinamo (most kids anywway) - meaning the rest of the league is rubbish, nobody watches it, ridiculously low crowd numbers, etc.
The academy is, btw, part of the reason why we've been pumping out top midfielders over the last 10 years, but have suffered elsewhere ever since.
Post-2002/2004 there was a big change in philosophy in the academy, the coaches started focusing on "modern midfielders" that could both run and be tactically and technically able to play at the top level (mostly brought on by having technical midfielders who couldn't run, like Prosinecki or Asanovic, in the past).
It is no coincidence that Kranjcar and Modric were followed up by Kovacic, Brozovic (he actually started in the Hrvatski Dragovoljac youth program), Badelj, now Moro, Majer, Ivanusec are coming up, etc.
Depth is unfortunately where we will always lack in certain positions, we haven't had a world class LB since Jarni (17 years now), and yes, Vrsaljko is our only choice at RB.
However, Bradaric (19) is coming up at LB, and we just might have bridged the gap from Modric/Rakitic/Mandzukic/etc. with guys like Kovacic, Brozovic, Kramaric, Petkovic, Rebic, to give the 19/20 years olds time to mature.
That's the only way the smaller countries can really stay consistent.
England, France, Germany, Spain, etc... They'll have U-21 title contenders every year.
Some better than others, but loads of top talent to choose from.
We won't. But with proper management, scouting and player development we can just pull off a string of generations in one line up to compete with the biggest nations with huge budgets and superior infrastructure.
...
As far as post-Modric... It's not just the quality. IMO Kovacic and Brozovic can be the world's best double-pivot in international football, and you build a 4-2-3-1 etc, for example. But replace Modric? No.
Modric is like an RPG character, gives +1 stats to all the others on the pitch, noone who doesn't watch him regularly understands this aura he brings, how much the game is easier for others around him with him at their disposal, how much he makes others better around him, even now, at advanced age and in an injury-plagued season.
(I know it's been lost in the fall of Madrid, and Modric himself, over the last year, but he still has that ability to be the best midfielder in the game, even now - just not with the same consistency... and no, we won't be able to replace him. Peak Modric is the best player I've ever watched as opening up passing lanes, and he was so versatile at doing it - passing, off-ball-movement, dribbling past people, etc. It made his team basically press-immune and it was a huge reason why Madrid did so well in the CL for so long)
Sometimes you just have some special players that no academy can replace.
I imagine it'll be the same for Belgium once KDB and Hazard are gone, for example.