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Speculation: Could Bedard be offersheeted next summer?

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Jared Grayden said:
Yes, I've seen this low threshold for "generational" and I wonder if it's coming from non-native English speakers. There's only been two generational centers in the cap era; Crosby and McDavid. They were elite NHL players at age 18/19. Reality is Bedard lacks the physical tools to be a generational talent like those two. So unless he has more size and mobility coming, he'll never come close to those two. Being generational is a unique confluence of a wide variety of traits that he lacks. This is no fault of Bedard's.
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Sorry, but there's only been one, and that's debatable. Since the modern era (post-1967) there have been exactly 3 sure-fire generational players (Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux), and one who was trending there, but the pack is catching up to (McDavid). I think the reason there is so much confusion these days is because people on the south side of 30 never really had an opportunity to see a real generational player play (save highlights) to see what it means to be so far and above everyone else in the league.
 
Crow said:
What about all the other sources of broadcasting revenue for the NHL?

Edit: This won’t change your well made point but I’m curious.
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I said it would be my last post in the thread, but this is a good point. The larger points I made stand, but in my haste I pulled the first chart I could find. So while NHL broadcast revenue is better than what is indicated in that chart, the league as a whole has a very small vision for the league and sport and this is reflected in every meaningful, tangible way you care to measure.

Sorry for derailing the thread and for the error with that chart.
 
Jared Grayden said:
Yes, I've seen this low threshold for "generational" and I wonder if it's coming from non-native English speakers. There's only been two generational centers in the cap era; Crosby and McDavid. They were elite NHL players at age 18/19. Reality is Bedard lacks the physical tools to be a generational talent like those two. So unless he has more size and mobility coming, he'll never come close to those two. Being generational is a unique confluence of a wide variety of traits that he lacks. This is no fault of Bedard's.
Click to expand...

I'm not arguing that Bedard is generational, but to be fair, there was quite a bit more talent on the Pens and Oilers when Crosby and McDavid joined the teams than there is in Chicago. In Crosby's rookie season, Pittsburgh had Lemieux for 26 games, Palffy for 42, and Gonchar on the blueline for most of the season, and added Malkin the next year. In McDavid's rookie season, they had 3 other recent 1OA picks on the roster (Hall, RNH, Yakupov), plus a recent 3OA (Drai).

In Chicago, there's no one else on the roster who is much more than a 2nd liner at this point. That doesn't seem like a very good environment to showcase his talents, and certainly nothing like what Crosby/McDavid walked in to.
 
IWantSakicAsMyGM said:
I'm not arguing that Bedard is generational, but to be fair, there was quite a bit more talent on the Pens and Oilers when Crosby and McDavid joined the teams than there is in Chicago. In Crosby's rookie season, Pittsburgh had Lemieux for 26 games, Palffy for 42, and Gonchar on the blueline for most of the season, and added Malkin the next year. In McDavid's rookie season, they had 3 other recent 1OA picks on the roster (Hall, RNH, Yakupov), plus a recent 3OA (Drai).

In Chicago, there's no one else on the roster who is much more than a 2nd liner at this point. That doesn't seem like a very good environment to showcase his talents, and certainly nothing like what Crosby/McDavid walked in to.
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I'm a 40+ year PIT fan. Penguins that year were awful and finished 2nd to last with a lower pts% than Chicago is currently on. So the entire argument about it being a better environment I find blatantly disingenuous. Sure, they had some ancient vets like Lemieux, Recchi, Leclair who were all far from their prime ages. Lemieux only played a quarter of the season and Palffy only played half the season. Gonchar was the only top line player on the team other than Crosby.
The main point is that an 18/19 year old Crosby or McDavid on exactly this very same CHI team is a way more capable player. Sure, maybe they wouldn't be winning scoring titles in year two, but GUARANTEED they would be much more productive than 83rd in points/game in their 2nd season.
 
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Jared Grayden said:
I'm a 40+ year PIT fan. Penguins that year were awful and finished 2nd to last with a lower pts% than Chicago is currently on. So the entire argument about it being a better environment I find blatantly disingenuous. Sure, they had some ancient vets like Lemieux, Recchi, Leclair who were all far from their prime ages. Lemieux only played a quarter of the season and Palffy only played half the season. Gonchar was the only top line player on the team other than Crosby.
The main point is that an 18/19 year old Crosby or McDavid on exactly this very same CHI team is a way more capable player. Sure, maybe they wouldn't be winning scoring titles in year two, but GUARANTEED they would be much more productive than 83rd in points/game in their 2nd season.
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If you're trying to score a lot of points, would you rather play half the season with old Palffy and 26 games with Mario Lemieux before downgrading to "ancient" Recchi and Leclair with Gonchar on the blueline or a whole season with Donato and Teravainen and Bertuzzi and Alex Vlasic on the blueline? I know which one I'm picking.

And I don't disagree that both Crosby and McDavid were more ready for the NHL than Bedard seems to be, but they also both walked into better situations than Bedard did.
 
Why is
Jared Grayden said:
Yes, I've seen this low threshold for "generational" and I wonder if it's coming from non-native English speakers. There's only been two generational centers in the cap era; Crosby and McDavid. They were elite NHL players at age 18/19. Reality is Bedard lacks the physical tools to be a generational talent like those two. So unless he has more size and mobility coming, he'll never come close to those two. Being generational is a unique confluence of a wide variety of traits that he lacks. This is no fault of Bedard"
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Makar should be in the convo. He was put in the AJHL as a strategy, not because he belonged there.
 
IWantSakicAsMyGM said:
If you're trying to score a lot of points, would you rather play half the season with old Palffy and 26 games with Mario Lemieux before downgrading to "ancient" Recchi and Leclair with Gonchar on the blueline or a whole season with Donato and Teravainen and Bertuzzi and Alex Vlasic on the blueline? I know which one I'm picking.
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If those guys are so terrible, what does it say about Bedard that they've been better than him?

Hard to blame guys like Teravainen, Donato, and Vlasic for Bedard's struggles when they've all outplayed him this year (and Donato has done so by a significant margin).

Dude is 10th in 5v5 p/60 on the Hawks. That's absolutely terrible.

1743098041406.png


That 1.42 p/60 puts him 241st out of the 409 forwards who have played >300 5v5 mins this year. He's producing like a 4th line player while playing terrible defensive hockey and cheating for offense.

IWantSakicAsMyGM said:
And I don't disagree that both Crosby and McDavid were more ready for the NHL than Bedard seems to be, but they also both walked into better situations than Bedard did.
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Crosby played the last 25-30 games of his 18 year old season with Andy Hilbert, Michel Ouellet, and Colby Armstrong as his primary wingers, and nearly led the league in scoring during that span. It was his most productive stretch.

We really need to stop mentioning Bedard in the same sentence as those two. Hell, they don't even belong in the same paragraph at this point.
 
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Offer sheets under the current structure make most sense for a player like Knies tbh, a good player with good pedigree, not for sky high potential prospects with Godly pedigree.

If you're a team like Buffalo/Detroit/Philly/Utah/Anaheim/Calgary/CBJ/Islanders/Minny/STL aka a decent-good team or bottom team that needs to take the next step, you can throw money at someone like Knies and hope he rounds out into a 40-40 guy, ideally giving you 30-30 boost the following year and only having to give up 1st/2nd/3rd.

The problem with offer sheeting a player like Bedard is that it's 100% gonna get matched and even if you did get him, he hasn't proven anything yet while the risk is extremely high coming from the picks or Bedard not taking the next step in places that are already not in a great spot.

So yeah, even though I'm a Leafs fan I'd probably expect a 10-11 million dollar offer for Knies if the team has the space because if you're not attracting much come UFA time and you want to get better without an insane cost, he is a great option. I mean honestly if he tops out as a 25-25 guy that's basically a great result for the totality of a 1st/2nd/3rd round pick all together, so you're basically getting a best case scenario in that situation anyways (never mind if he reaches his even higher potential).
 
I very much doubt it happens but a team like LA who have their 1st, 2nd and 3rd for 2026 would be an interesting team to do so. Offer $9.1m for 1 year. Their pick is unlikely to be a lottery pick and Bedard is going to be better than the players in the 20+ overall range.

Pittsburgh would be an interesting one too, but they would very likely be a lottery team.
 
Would any team really want to give up 4 1st for Bedard when he hasn't really improved at all yet? He's still got tons of potential, but late pick teams are usually contenders, and they typically all have their core already. Lower ranked teams might not want to risk losing out on 3 or 4 high picks to build around. I don't think a Bedard OS is really that likely right now.
 
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Ford Prefect said:
Sorry, but there's only been one, and that's debatable. Since the modern era (post-1967) there have been exactly 3 sure-fire generational players (Orr, Gretzky and Lemieux), and one who was trending there, but the pack is catching up to (McDavid). I think the reason there is so much confusion these days is because people on the south side of 30 never really had an opportunity to see a real generational player play (save highlights) to see what it means to be so far and above everyone else in the league.
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Close it down folks. And someone remember to lock the door and turn off the lights
 
ManofSteel55 said:
Would any team really want to give up 4 1st for Bedard when he hasn't really improved at all yet? He's still got tons of potential, but late pick teams are usually contenders, and they typically all have their core already. Lower ranked teams might not want to risk losing out on 3 or 4 high picks to build around. I don't think a Bedard OS is really that likely right now.
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With the way Tampa gives up picks. Abso-freaking-lutely. Hell, we might give up 5 1st rounders if we knew Bedard was a sure thing
 
Iwishihadaspacebar said:
I very much doubt it happens but a team like LA who have their 1st, 2nd and 3rd for 2026 would be an interesting team to do so. Offer $9.1m for 1 year. Their pick is unlikely to be a lottery pick and Bedard is going to be better than the players in the 20+ overall range.

Pittsburgh would be an interesting one too, but they would very likely be a lottery team.
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9.1M for 1 year doesn't get it done at all.

That's an easy match for Chicago and not a very complicated situation for them to maneuver.

For an offer sheet to work, a team either needs to have cap issues and/or the player needs to be paid well above market value. That's why Kotkaniemi worked (above market value) and that is why the STL double offer sheet worked.

A 1 year deal at 11.45M (or whatever the four 1st threshold is set at) is the minimum offer sheet worth trying. Even that doesn't likely work. You need to get up to 15M x 1 year before it starts to get dicey for Chicago matching vs accepting four unprotected firsts. Ultimately, it probably takes max, and any team in a position to offer him that is unlikely to be in a better position than Chicago.
 
Apparently 6 points vs Austria in a World Junior tournament doesn’t make one generational 😂

He’ll be fine once he has a better support system. He’s not big enough or fast enough to carry a team alone.
Chicago will lock him up!
 
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