For the best, maybe second best goalie in the league, um ya do it.
There are 30 shots in a game.
there are a league avaerge 10.5 High scoring chance shots in a game
below .915 Save% shots that go in 8.5 to 33% of the time.
75% of the goals come from these shots.
and
19.5 Low scoring chance shots.
above .915 save% shots. go in 0- 8.5% off the time.
25% of goals come from these shots.
so you kind of want the best HSCA golaies in the Game.
HSCA Save % goalies last 3 years.
minimum 15000 HSC attempts.
1. Price .889
----------------------- tier 1
2. Talbot ; Griess .886
4. Holtby .885
----------------------- tier 2
5. Halak .882
6. Jones .881
7. Elliot; Allen .880
----------------------- Tier 3
9. Crawford .878
10. Lundquist .877
----------------------- tier 4
11. Schnieder; Bernier .874
13. Mrazek .873
----------------------- tier 5
14. Quick; Fleury; Rask; Neauvirth .871
18. Lack; Gibson; Varlamov .870
----------------------- tier 6
21. Bishop; Miller .867
23. Lehtonen .866
----------------------- tier 7
24. F. Andersson .862
a first and a second and 5M; then trade #11 BErnier for a 5th; Oh my!
25. Mason .861
26. Reimer .860
27. Dubnyk; Pavalec; Bobrovsky .859
----------------------- tier 8
from average 10.5 Shots:
Price
10.5 X (1.000 - .889) = 1.17 GA/60
Talbot
10.5 X (1.000 - .886) = 1.20 GA/60
Schnieder; Bernier:
10.5 X (1.000 - .874) = 1.32 GA/60
Pavalec:
10.5 x (1.000 - .859) = 1.48 GA/60
the difference between the #1 starting Goalie.
and bottom starting golaies is
1.48 - 1.17 = .31 GA/60; .31/ 1.48 = 20.9%
So top end goalies is important.
but the most important to GA?
Many who have read me know I am the origionator of HSCA theory.
the correlation of front net penetration by the Flin flon bombers of Clarke leavch; and Stoughton and Shot effrectivness.
struck me in early 2003.
but was not until the post 05-06 season and Desajardins intro of behind the net.
did it strike me how important distance from net was to success.
THE difference from the best in the game 7.5 HSC Shots/60 and
and
the worst 13.5 HSCA shots/60 was 6/13.5 = 44.4%
a variance of 44.4% for 75% of the goals.
if you take
the best HSCA D and the bottom goalies save% 1.000 - .859 = .141
7.5 X (.141) = 1.06 GA/60
then the worst GA D and best Golaie (1.000 - .889 = .111
13.50 X .111 = 1.50 GA/60
it is not even close.
A dman giving up 1.25 HSC shots less than league average every 60 minutes of play with the worst starting golaies.
9.25 X .141 = 1.30
A damn giving up 1.25 HSC shots more than league average every 60 minutes of play with worst starting goalies.
10.75 X .111 = 1.30
which leads to the 23 minutes of hockey:
Subban - Weber:
Subban bottom 60 HSCA D
12.8 HSC SH/60
12.82 X .111 = 1.42 EVGA/60
Weber #2 HSCA D.
7.30 X = .81 EVGA/60
that is .61 less EVGA
Lots of people on here value Dman offence.
of the top 300 EVG scorers 273 are forwards who score 93.8% of those goals.
Forwards are 3.8 times more successful at generating Evne goals.
PK subban generates the 10th best EVp/60 rate by dmen in the league
1.10 EVp/60
357 Players forwards/Dmen generate 1.10 EVP/60 +
346 of them are forwards. that is almost all 12 forwards for each team.
subban generates even offence at the same rate as a bottom 4th line forward.
take the top 10 EVP/60 D last 3 years.
look at how many Forwards can generate there rate
Burns 1.51
--------------- 199 forwards; #7 forward rate
Hedman 1.36
Karlsson 1.35
--------------- 256 forwards; #9 forward rate
Klinberg 1.23
--------------- 300 forwards; #10/11 forward rate
Byfuglien 1.18
gostibere 1.17
Giordano 1.16
--------------- 315 forwards; #11 forward rate
Barrie 1.15
Parayko 1.14
Subban 1.10
--------------- 346 forwards; #12 forward rate
SO
When you want offence or a goal scored.
who do you give the puck too?
and how fast?
cup winners have
1. HSCA d system coach
2. top 10 HSCA save% goalie
3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D.
4. 2 #1 (top 90) or 3 (top 150) evg/EVP lines
5. +ve Goal diff from PP/PK
Schnieder #2?
sorry he has one heck of a HSCA system in front of him.
with a whole collection of top 60 Dmen.
What NJ needs is offence.
That is why they gave u the best HSCA; EVGA; PKGA d in the game the last 2 years for Hall.