OT: Coronavirus XXXVI: Bat Scratch Fever

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Skar

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Jul 2, 2016
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Just thinking out loud here.

With the COVID passports gaining some traction, what would be the results of adapting other types of passports? Like for example, STD passports for clubs in Vegas. :sarcasm:
 

Drivesaitl

Finding Hemingway
Oct 8, 2017
49,459
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Islands in the stream.




Based on the number of daily active cases we have seen for past few weeks, should stick around the 4-5k active cases for a while, which based on current hospitalization rate of 4.4%, should end up with around 200-225 people on average in hospital, which should be fine for the health care system, and then further reduced once vaccinations kick in.


The indication of daily recoveries, 322, which is rarely included in the data is helpful in that it gives us a general note on what the range of break even is. i.e. any more than that in daily cases is increase.

Interestingly only 16 UK variant new cases counted today, after larger amounts of 28, 34, in past couple days. Again not sure how much of difference is just data dumps, when they are testing specifically for or identifying new variants etc. Its a hodge podge number. What the data tells us however is we have 370 variants thus far in about a month of these occurring. But this is not telling us either how many of those Variants are still active. I would imagine some of them have resolved already. They just seem to be giving us total instances of variants at this point. In anycase thats a very small portion of total active cases.

btw just eyeballing it but they appeared to do 12K vaccinations yesterday. That I think is the most in one day but still not close to the type of numbers we need to see. I mean on that pace it would take a year to just get one dose in everybody.
 
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bellagiobob

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Jul 27, 2006
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The indication of daily recoveries, 322, which is rarely included in the data is helpful in that it gives us a general note on what the range of break even is. i.e. any more than that in daily cases is increase.

Interestingly only 16 UK variant new cases counted today, after larger amounts of 28, 34, in past couple days. Again not sure how much of difference is just data dumps, when they are testing specifically for or identifying new variants etc. Its a hodge podge number. What the data tells us however is we have 370 variants thus far in about a month of these occurring. But this is not telling us either how many of those Variants are still active. I would imagine some of them have resolved already. They just seem to be giving us total instances of variants at this point. In anycase thats a very small portion of total active cases.

btw just eyeballing it but they appeared to do 12K vaccinations yesterday. That I think is the most in one day but still not close to the type of numbers we need to see. I mean on that pace it would take a year to just get one dose in everybody.

Believe the province mentioned that they could do around 50K per day once they were up and running full steam, but guess you can't give what you don't have. ;)
 

bellagiobob

Registered User
Jul 27, 2006
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Wonder how many will actually get the vaccine. Were over 100k bookings already on Thursday, so not that many booked in the last day. If that peters out, and they only get around 60% in that group wanting the vaccine, guessing they will move onto the next group a bit sooner and make shots available to them.

As far as lifting restrictions:

"Current trends mean Alberta will likely move forward with the next phase of its economic relaunch, Shandro said Friday.
That could happen as early as Monday, when the cabinet committee on COVID-19 will meet to discuss the possible next step, three weeks after the first set of restrictions were eased.
If the group decides to lift some restrictions, those changes could come into effect the same day, chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said earlier this week.
The eased restrictions would apply to retailers, hotels, conference centres, and banquet and community halls. Indoor fitness and children’s sport and performance could also see a further lifting of measures. Details on specifics are not available.
Alberta has more than met one of the previously outlined thresholds for entering the next phase of relaunch, which required fewer than 450 concurrent COVID-19 hospitalizations by March 1.
Shandro said Albertans should remember that, even though some restrictions could be eased, some will still apply.
He said current data supports moving forward but said the last week of data still must be reviewed.
“Some of the caveats that were put on it, was if we see … concern over the past week with increases,” Shandro said. “I don’t see that at this time though.”
 

yukoner88

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Dec 16, 2009
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Apparently we have the b1429 California variant which is more contagious and that is why we have seen the highest numbers in the state a few days over the last week. Once more I feel obligated to say, f*** California.

Heard a few scientists interviewed on the radio that these variants are a result of herd immunity becoming a factor in certain hard hit areas, which causes the virus to mutate/evolve to avoid dying out itself, thus sparking off an arms race (heh..........pun may or may not be intended) between the immune systems of the local population and the virus itself.
 

GMofOilers

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Oct 15, 2007
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Heard a few scientists interviewed on the radio that these variants are a result of herd immunity becoming a factor in certain hard hit areas, which causes the virus to mutate/evolve to avoid dying out itself, thus sparking off an arms race (heh..........pun may or may not be intended) between the immune systems of the local population and the virus itself.

Which in turn will weaken the virus eventually. Keep the mutations coming, it will kill itself off.
 

harpoon

Registered User
Dec 23, 2005
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Apparently we have the b1429 California variant which is more contagious and that is why we have seen the highest numbers in the state a few days over the last week. Once more I feel obligated to say, f*** California.
I have a friend with a high end rental property in Hawaii. It’s been a constant stream of people from CA trying to rent the place long term. :shakehead
 

Bryanbryoil

Pray For Ukraine
Sep 13, 2004
87,588
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I have a friend with a high end rental property in Hawaii. It’s been a constant stream of people from CA trying to rent the place long term. :shakehead

No surprise. Come here to "run away" from the madness while bringing in fresh virus for the rest of us. Between tourists and local idiots that are traveling for non emergency reasons, this is what happens. My kids school reopened this week, already 2 cases. Siblings that were sent to school with symptoms. People are f***ing idiots. Thankfully those weren't the days that my kids went to school, but maybe next week they'll say that the same happened when they were at school. Again, people are f***ing idiots /rant.
 

BigFuzzyDice

the giant Kane in your azz
Jul 8, 2016
1,742
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I told you guys that vaccine passport forgery course i took out by the airport would pay off. I Just didn't think it would be this soon...

 
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bellagiobob

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Jul 27, 2006
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EvJ0eEjXcAEV-mP


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Pretty much going in the arms as fast as we can get it in Alberta.
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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Waterloo Ontario
Heard a few scientists interviewed on the radio that these variants are a result of herd immunity becoming a factor in certain hard hit areas, which causes the virus to mutate/evolve to avoid dying out itself, thus sparking off an arms race (heh..........pun may or may not be intended) between the immune systems of the local population and the virus itself.
This is not really what happens though. The virus cannot will itself to mutate. It is a random event due to an error in the replication process. But what is the case is that if a random mutation occurs that does make it easier for the virus to infect or to evade natural immunity that mutation will be come more dominant.

The more people with immunity the less opportunity the virus has to mutate. It is also the case that vaccines help more in this regard than allowing for reaching herd immunity naturally. Every fully infected person is in effect a mutation factory. If a vaccine prevents infection it also prevents mutation.
 
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Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
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Especially after they just opened 3 weeks ago.

Funny how hospitals have been so overwhelmed but doctors still have time to spread their fear through the media.
If the hospitals were "overwhelmed" a couple months ago when we had about 950 hospitalizations, what do you call it now at around 250?
 
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Stoneman89

Registered User
Feb 8, 2008
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This is not really what happens though. The virus cannot will itself to mutate. It is a random event due to an error in the replication process. But what is the case is that if a random mutation occurs that does make it easier for the virus to infect or to evade natural immunity that mutation will be come more dominant.

The more people with immunity the less opportunity the virus has to mutate. It is also the case that vaccines help more in this regard than allowing for reaching herd immunity naturally. Every fully infected person is in effect a mutation factory. If a vaccine prevents infection it also prevents mutation.
A virus sounds like a perfect example of something adapting to it's surroundings to survive. Like Darwin's theories, the strong will survive, and is replicated by the animal kingdom through time.
 
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