Everything is speculation right now. In most cases, the media is fuelling a narrative they want to push so I’d be very hesitant to even read stories because they are mostly chopping quotes to suit their narrative.
There is a need to slow this down in an effort to ease the pressure on the Health Care system. I think, overall, we’ve done a pretty darn good job. The normal doubling rate for this is four days. The current rate has held steady at about 50 new cases per day in Ontario and that is also during a period where there is a lot more testing taking place. Based on the new assessment centres performing loads of tests, you’d expect to see a spike in positive tests but we are not seeing that.
If Ontario holds at an additional 50 or so positive tests per day over the course of the next week, that would be a very positive result. It would prove that the shit downs are having a positive effect.
The next stage would be seeing that number go from 50 down to 30 and then continue to lower. This is the stage no one is able to predict a timeline on. It could very well begin to happen next week! It could take a month. It could take two months.
The overall challenge is understanding the fear of getting the virus will soon move to fear of economic meltdown. When people start to not make mortgage payments, rent payments, car payments etc and start to increase their credit card debt while not having income come in, the pressure not he government to lift forced closure bans will become more heavy than the pressure to force the closures that we are seeing now.
People are looking now at self preservation for health. Soon they will start focusing on self preservation from a social economic standpoint. If you think what is happening now is hard, wait another 4-6 weeks if businesses remain closed and are forced to start laying off workers by the hundreds of thousands.
Make no mistake, at some point there may be a situation where people living in harmony united by their desire to stay “not sick” will be pushed aside by their fears of not being able to provide for their families. People will start doing scary shit if and when that begins.
About 90% of the population would just get sick and recover. 5% would be hospitalized and recover. 5% would die. I’m not sure the socio-economic struggles will cause as many deaths but I am reasonably sure a very large portion of people will suffer the affects of these social distancing measures if this goes on longer than the end of April. IF people are not generally back to work by the first week of May, shit is going down. I am not scared of this Virus anywhere near how scared I will be if our society breaks down as a result of economic collapse.
Social distancing for 6 months? GLWT.