OT: Coronavirus 3 - wait but Covid 19 is SARS-CoV-2

[hblueridgegal]

Tulsa and other locales owe you a thank you for helping to lower the spread.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Tulsa and other locales owe you a thank you for helping to lower the spread.

Can you explain this to my foreign butt?

 

[Lempo]

Can you explain this to my foreign butt?

Some Korean kids use a Chinese app to ruin a candidate's campaign rally for the US Presidential election. Apparently this is good for the democracy.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Some Korean kids use a Chinese app to ruin a candidate's campaign rally for the US Presidential election. Apparently this is good for the democracy.

I have seen weirder.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As a comparison to my Harris Teeter post yesterday, went to Lowe’s home improvement in Morrisville around 8:30 am today and mask adherence wasn’t nearly as good as HT. Maybe 25-30% weren’t wearing masks, including a few employees.

 

[MinJaBen]

FYI:

Hi Everyone,

Happy Fathers Day to all you fathers out there!

Many of the trends we’ve seen before are continuing, with one big change—not a good one.

US Cases

· For several weeks the number of new cases reported for the US outside of NY has been trending downward, albeit slowly. However, over the past three days, there has been a large spike in new cases (Fig. 1). This has abolished the downward trend. It’s too early to say whether this spike will continue, and for how long, so it is not clear that there is an actual upward trend. The spikes are due to upticks in at least 12 states (See below).
· The number of new tests per day continues its upward trend (Fig. 2). We need to keep this going.
· Presumably as a result of the spike in new cases, the curve for new cases per test is flat (Fig. 3, no significant trend since day 78—for the last 31 days). We need to keep an eye on this one as well to see if it starts to trend upward, which would indicate an increase in the actual number of new cases over and above effects due to increased testing. In any case, progress in decreasing the actual number of cases seems to have halted.
· The cumulative number of new cases per test continues to show a systematic deviation from the best-fit modified logistic regression (Fig. 4). The direction is the same as it has bee, with the data from the past week or so being more linear than the fitted curve. Because of this, today I am not making projections from this curve, especially since there’s a likelihood that the curve for new cases per test may turn upward. My guess is that any prediction from this curve would push back (make later) the passing of the first wave of infections for several days.

Fig 1 Fig 2

Fig 3 Fig 4
US Deaths

· The number of new deaths in the US outside of NY continues its downward trend (Fig. 5; P < 0.0001 after day 48 (17 April). Because of the lag between new cases and deaths, any effect of the spike in number of cases will not have shown up in the death trends.
· Projecting the linear trend in new deaths gives a 0-death day of 144 (22 July), with a margin of error up to day 196 (12 September). The former estimate is approximately what it has been for a couple weeks, except for the last estimate (day 152), while the margin of error is value is about 4 days earlier than previously projected. Obviously, these numbers may change if the number of deaths starts to flatten or trend upward because of the recent increase in new cases.

Fig 5 P < 0.0001after day 48 0-death day 144 , 196
NC Cases

· The number of new reported cases in NC continues to increase at an accelerating rate (Fig. 6; P < 0.0001 for quadratic term of regression).
· Correcting for testing, the number of new cases per test appears to have levelled off (Fig. 7; Significance of quadratic term: P = 0.03, for trend since day 73 (12 May). It thus seems that the increase in the curve starting on that day has stopped, which is good, but the curve also has not started to decline again, suggesting that the actual number of cases in the state is not declining.

Fig 6 Fig 7
NC Deaths

· The number of new deaths remains flat (no statistical trend since day 71), which is consistent with the plateauing of new cases per test.

Fig 8 No trend since day 71
Trends in other States

· There are now twelve states in which the number of cases per test has begun to increase significantly after a downward trend (Fig. 9). These now include Oklahoma, where our fearless leader flopped yesterday. Keep an eye on the media in the next week to see how many new cases were transmitted at his rally in Tulsa.
· For graphs for all the states, see the attachment to this message.

Fig 9
Conclusions

Nationwide, a number of states are experiencing an increase in the actual number of new infections. This is reflected in the flattened curves for number of new infections and number of new infections per test. The number of new deaths does not yet reflect this trend, and currently the trend indicates that the first wave of deaths will have passed by sometime between late July and early September. However, don’t take these dates too literally, since it is likely that we’re going to see additional deaths due to the increase in number of cases.

In North Carolina, the increase in new cases per test that started in mid-May appears to have plateaued. However, it has not started to decrease yet, so we are likely in for a period of time in which new infections continue at a substantial rate.

Stay safe!

 

[raynman]

New company policy started today, unless you’re in your cubicle you are required to wear a mask. All plant workers are required to as well. Us office workers have it easy compared to the plant workers, it gets crazy hot back there in the summer due to our manufacturing processes and no AC.

 

[MinJaBen]

FYI:

Just updating the file he added this time with the information about each state:

 

[WreckingCrew]

Just updating the file he added this time with the information about each state:

I was about to ask which ****ing state is GU (Guorgia)? Then I realized there are 56 entries on that graph, so I'm assuming they're including DC + a few US Territories

 

[The Stranger]

I've been wondering this for a while and finally took the time to look it up. Per this article, the case numbers include results both from viral testing and antibody testing. The case numbers are becoming less of my focus...I think the hospitalizations numbers are much more meaningful.

Unfortunately, as most on here are probably aware, the hospitalizations in NC have been going up. That being said, there is still 20%+ unused capacity in the hospitals right now.

Last week there were a couple people on here saying NC was going back to full lock-down...obviously that didn't happen last week...and given the data I don't see a reason for it today. Will be interesting to see what the state government does though. I believe Roy Cooper is supposed to have a phase announcement this week sometime.

My prediction is NC stays in phase 2 and Cooper implores people to continue to follow guidelines...hand washing, social distancing, masks, etc.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I've been wondering this for a while and finally took the time to look it up. Per this article, the case numbers include results both from viral testing and antibody testing. The case numbers are becoming less of my focus...I think the hospitalizations numbers are much more meaningful.

Unfortunately, as most on here are probably aware, the hospitalizations in NC have been going up. That being said, there is still 20%+ unused capacity in the hospitals right now.

Last week there were a couple people on here saying NC was going back to full lock-down...obviously that didn't happen last week...and given the data I don't see a reason for it today. Will be interesting to see what the state government does though. I believe Roy Cooper is suppose to have a phase announcement this week sometime.

My prediction is NC stays in phase 2 and Cooper implores people to continue to follow guidelines...hand washing, social distancing, masks, etc.

This seems likeliest to me. It would be extremely difficult to justify going backward -- although I would like to see actual mask enforcement, even if just by exerting additional pressure on businesses. There are plenty of businesses around the world saying "no mask no entry and if you need a mask we will give you (or sell you) one." I'd like to see that become the norm.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

I was about to ask which ****ing state is GU (Guorgia)? Then I realized there are 56 entries on that graph, so I'm assuming they're including DC + a few US Territories

Guam.

 

[MinJaBen]

Saw this on the main board and thought it would make for an interesting discussion here as well:

My apologies if this has been discussed.

Elliot Friedman just did a hit on Sportsnet 650 radio and he expressed/speculated that there are negotiations going on between NHL and NHLPA regarding the re-start of the NHL season.

He speculated to keep an eye on one particular and very important thing.

He expressed that he thinks there will be a rule in place that any player that has tested positive for Covid is ineligible to play for around 6-8 weeks starting from day 1 of when they are cleared from the virus.

Friedman expressed this is due to 2 things.

1. Limit any spread
2. Liability issues especially when it comes to mandatory insurance as there are fear of long term lung effects related to Covid.

Friedman speculated that this will be in place for the re-start and also for the following 2020-2021 season.

I'll post the podcast asap as soon as Sportsnet 650 does

If this is true and becomes the way they run things, that would have huge implications on how the playoffs proceed. Toronto would be without Matthews for the playin and probably one or two rounds if they get past Columbus, while the Bolts would be down three players, whoever they are.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I hope they get this all figured out and as safe as can be, but I am once again glad I'm not on either side trying to figure this out, all while trying to hammer out at least the framework of a new CBA as well. At the very least, I think both sides seem to have put in a lot of amazing work on this.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Looking at the NC website.

	Cases	Deaths
Nursing Home	4232	625
Residential Care Facility	1159	103
Correctional Facility	1640	25
Other	241	1
Non Congregate Living setting	25763	360
Missing	20570	109
Total	53605	1223

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

60% of deaths came from Nursing Homes and Residential care facilities. Not surprising that more deaths occurred there as that is where an older, more vulnerable population resides, I just didn't realize it was 60% (maybe more as information is missing for 109).

 

[The Stranger]

60% of deaths came from Nursing Homes and Residential care facilities. Not surprising that more deaths occurred there as that is where an older, more vulnerable population resides, I just didn't realize it was 60% (maybe more as information is missing for 109).

This is consistent with reported data I've heard in other parts of the country as well. I mentioned here a while back that reported data in PA was about 2/3 of the deaths were in nursing homes (per Professor on Wharton Moneyball Podcast).

It's around 80% in MN.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

This is consistent with reported data I've heard in other parts of the country as well. I mentioned here a while back that reported data in PA was about 2/3 of the deaths were in nursing homes (per Professor on Wharton Moneyball Podcast).

It's around 80% in MN.

Minnesota was at 80% because they were the last to change their rule about sending elderly back to the care facilities vice keeping them in the hospital. If I remember correctly, 3 states had this rule, and really caused the significant spread in Elderly facilities. I guess Minnesota was the last react and that is why their numbers are high.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

lol

Raleigh BBQ joint thumbs its nose at NC's coronavirus rules :: WRAL.com

A barbecue restaurant in Raleigh refuses to adhere to restrictions put in place by state officials to limit the spread of coronavirus.
“There is no Goober Cooper government mandated social distancing at Big Al’s, feel Free to eat wherever you like,” reads a sign posted on the front door of Big All's BBQ, near the intersection of Louisburg and Forestville roads in northeast Raleigh.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Coronavirus in North Carolina: Maps, charts and data

Hospitilizations (chart 3) have been steadily rising since May 15th, a week after Cooper rescinded the stay-at-home order. That's too quick of a turnaround to be directly related to the rescission. Was the WH plan of two weeks of steady/declining numbers too small? New cases seems to have platued over the last week, albeit at an all time high of ~1400 cases per day.

Within the next month I expect either more strident enforcement of mask and occupancy laws, or we go back into Phase 1. None of the curves are looking good.

 

[Lempo]

Dammit. The public broadcaster has decided to try bring me something worth of my tax monies. You rarely get to think nowadays that "this is an awesome article" but this piece on the cost of treatment and healthcare economics did that to me.

I wish I could translate it somehow:

"Kannattaako bruttokansantuotteesta uhrata 6–8 prosenttia, että muutama vanhus pelastuu?" Näin Suomessa lasketaan, mitä terveys saa maksaa

They are intervieving an emeritus professor of healthcare economics who's getting a hard experimental cancer treatment himself.

He's spitballing around the question of the cost of corona treatment over a very crude calculation that the corona restrictions have costed about €150k to save one year of (prolonged elderly) life. This is somewhat above the generally accepted pain threshold in the publicly funded healthy year of life. The normally accepted sum is around 30,000 to 50,000 euros, but that's a recommendion which does not bind the doctor deciding on the treatment.

In other words: "Is it worth to sacrifice 6 to 8 points of GNP to save couple of elders?"

And this all is probably brutal to the more liberty-lovin' section of US readers because effectively we are talking about the so-called death panels here, except that it's really a singular individual doctor calling the shots.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Dammit. The public broadcaster has decided to try bring me something worth of my tax monies. You rarely get to think nowadays that "this is an awesome article" but this piece on the cost of treatment and healthcare economics did that to me.

I wish I could translate it somehow:

"Kannattaako bruttokansantuotteesta uhrata 6–8 prosenttia, että muutama vanhus pelastuu?" Näin Suomessa lasketaan, mitä terveys saa maksaa

They are intervieving an emeritus professor of healthcare economics who's getting a hard experimental cancer treatment himself.

He's spitballing around the question of the cost of corona treatment over a very crude calculation that the corona restrictions have costed about €150k to save one year of (prolonged elderly) life. This is somewhat above the generally accepted pain threshold in the publicly funded healthy year of life. The normally accepted sum is around 30,000 to 50,000 euros, but that's a recommendion which does not bind the doctor deciding on the treatment.

In other words: "Is it worth to sacrifice 6 to 8 points of GNP to save couple of elders?"

And this all is probably brutal to the more liberty-lovin' section of US readers because effectively we are talking about the so-called death panels here, except that it's really a singular individual doctor calling the shots.

Do they take into account the amount of people whose work efficiency will drop because they will be ill?

 

[Lempo]

Do they take into account the amount of people whose work efficiency will drop because they will be ill?

No idea. Seems like you'd have a plenty of other variables too once you start thinking things like that.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Coronavirus in North Carolina: Maps, charts and data

Hospitilizations (chart 3) have been steadily rising since May 15th, a week after Cooper rescinded the stay-at-home order. That's too quick of a turnaround to be directly related to the rescission. Was the WH plan of two weeks of steady/declining numbers too small? New cases seems to have platued over the last week, albeit at an all time high of ~1400 cases per day.

Within the next month I expect either more strident enforcement of mask and occupancy laws, or we go back into Phase 1. None of the curves are looking good.

Its at least 80% compliance with masks around me in CT. I haven’t ventured out to restaurants for sit down meals or anything like that (those just opened), but for the most part it’s being taken seriously here. Unsurprisingly cases are way down here and now we are talking about travel bans for people from outside New England.

It’s completely insane to me that masks aren’t mandated. I get it if you have asthma or some other breathing issue, but come on man. Put on a mask. I can get my 2 year old to wear the f***ing thing for almost an hour at a time and I have a hard time getting him to keep his pants on.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Its at least 80% compliance with masks around me in CT. I haven’t ventured out to restaurants for sit down meals or anything like that (those just opened), but for the most part it’s being taken seriously here. Unsurprisingly cases are way down here and now we are talking about travel bans for people from outside New England.

It’s completely insane to me that masks aren’t mandated. I get it if you have asthma or some other breathing issue, but come on man. Put on a mask. I can get my 2 year old to wear the f***ing thing for almost an hour at a time and I have a hard time getting him to keep his pants on.

I was just in CT this weekend. Agree with the general mask usage, it was almost 100%. Although to walk from car to hotel room and have to think “Where the hell is my mask?” is a little ridiculous.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Novak Djokovic and wife Jelena test positive for COVID-19

Djokovic has been heavily criticized over the past several days for organizing a charity tennis tournament, the Adria Tour, in Croatia while the coronavirus is still surging around the world. The Adria Tour operated with no masks and no social distancing requirements, and nearly 4,000 fans attended the Serbian leg of the tournament. Players were seen embracing after matches and going out for nights on the town, which were organized by Djokovic.

Djokovic has publicly said that he is “opposed to vaccination.” He also questioned whether he would play in the U.S. Open this fall if tournament organizers enacted “extreme” and “impossible” coronavirus safety measures.