Corey Pronman - Top 100 NHL Draft Prospects

[Latex*]

For the most part Markus Granlund has a better offensive game and probably a higher offensive upside than Salomäki, but many also think that Markus Granlund’s chances of developing into a NHL player are almost nonexistent. He’s small, soft and not overly competitive. His puck skills aren’t quite as good as his older brother’s and he doesn’t have elite speed. Salomäki on the other hand has a decent chance of developing into a NHL level checking line forward, therefore I strongly believe that he’ll be drafted before Markus Granlund. We'll have to wait and see.

Exactly. Granlund has 'never an NHLer' written all over him.

 

[R S]

Not a fan of the ranking on Siemens or of the description as to why he's ranked that low.

For me, he's an elite skater. Not just good, but very good. Mix that with his size and strength and you have a guy that is already a very intimidating physical combo.

His point totals being elevated by a high powered offensive team might be a valid point, but that doesn't change the fact that he is a very good passer for a blueliner. He can be very dangerous in transition when he decides to jump into the play, often drawing defenders in and creating holes for others on the rush.

His puck skills in regards to stickhandling are definitely a valid concern as he can bobble it and handle it like a grenade on occasion. He also has a major flaw of thinking too much with the puck in his own zone. Gets himself in trouble from time to time.

I posted on Kirk's Bruins Blog after seeing him ranked so low and figured I might as well do the same here.

I could definitely see how some teams have him ranked 20-30, but late 30's or in the 60's is blatantly flawed.

 

[Iain Fyffe]

That's faulty logic. I get what you're going for - that a younger prospect in the same draft year is more valuable than an older prospect because he's younger and thus has more time to develop before he reaches the age of the late birthdate.

That's basically it. Note the context I (not Corey) couched it in: if you're looking at players with identical numbers (other than age), the younger one is the better bet. But you'll never have identical numbers, so age is only one of the many factors that the system uses.

A late birthdate is almost always going to be the smallest kid in his age group, and that's why there's such a glaring disparity between late birthdates and early birthdates at every level of hockey.

The system doesn't care why it's true, it just cares that it is true. It's an objective system in that it relies only on numerical inputs, with no added subjectivity. It'll never be the be-all and end-all, but it's a powerful tool.

 

[Iain Fyffe]

Ryan Sproul was compared to Bryan Allen, Sproul is a raw offensive dmen and Allen's a slow crease clearer type.

The statistical comps (which were done by me) were based primarily on GVT. I tried to find an NHL player with a similar value to the one projected by the system for the player in question. I tried to make the comps as comparable as possible, but sometimes there isn't a really good match at a partciular GVT value.

It's also restricted by the database that I'm currently using, which will be expanding in the future.

 

[Eyelanders]

I definitely enjoy these write-ups, as they give good information about the best North American prospects. I just don´t see them playing as much as Finnish prospects or at times some other countries´ young players. I do not agree everything about the ranking, but otherwise good job.

 

[OilerOlli*]

Bruins 2010 Draft Watch had Siemens ranked 36th. So there's another opinion on Siemens that doesn't match with the common consensus.

That being said it's a player ranking and not a mock-draft. Most teams probably have him in their top 30, some NHL teams may not have Siemens ranked in their top 30.

Sure, but I can tell you he won't fall deeper than 19.

 

[BluechipBulletin]

That's basically it. Note the context I (not Corey) couched it in: if you're looking at players with identical numbers (other than age), the younger one is the better bet. But you'll never have identical numbers, so age is only one of the many factors that the system uses.


The system doesn't care why it's true, it just cares that it is true. It's an objective system in that it relies only on numerical inputs, with no added subjectivity. It'll never be the be-all and end-all, but it's a powerful tool.

I think that a lot of important circumstance is ignored by making that kind of declaration.

 

[Corey Pronman]

Not a fan of the ranking on Siemens or of the description as to why he's ranked that low.

For me, he's an elite skater. Not just good, but very good. Mix that with his size and strength and you have a guy that is already a very intimidating physical combo.

In regards to the skating we obviously differ in opinion. I see him as an NHL average skater, and above-average for his size and I don't exactly see that as a bad thing. You using the word elite obviously infers a difference in opinion, but that is based on subjective scaling and we really can't prove our cases either way outside of consulting a wisdom of crowds.

His point totals being elevated by a high powered offensive team might be a valid point, but that doesn't change the fact that he is a very good passer for a blueliner. He can be very dangerous in transition when he decides to jump into the play, often drawing defenders in and creating holes for others on the rush.

I agree on this case, his ability to jump up into the play and recover quickly and get back is quite notable and a desirable asset. I don't see him doing this in the NHL because of his lack of puck skills and could likely see the habit getting coached out, but I've never denied the kid can move, the skating tool is quite nice and well rounded.

------------------

We differ on a couple of aspects, you like his passing and skating more than I do, but I don't think we are worlds apart in the evaluations like we are in the ranking, we just really differ on how valuable we think the package he brings is. In the intro to my rankings I said what I was looking for, what I would be crediting and debiting and why so if you want to start a debate on that front, my initial point starts there.

Edit: Here's Iain's column on the birth date thing from earlier this year:

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=785

It's not the ONLY factor that plays into his projections as stated in the Intro (and again the rankings are not based off the projections, they are merely an aid), but the evidence shows that it is a significant factor, so thereby it should be one of the many variables playing into a numerical projection system.

 

[yarder]

Some interesting positioning,.....One that really stands out for me is your only goaltender. It's as if you got down to the fourth round and said "dam we forgot about a goalie,...John Gibson 95"
I have a hard time believing the first goalie is in the fourth round

 

[Mathletic]

51-60 analysis posted

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=961

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Some interesting positioning,.....One that really stands out for me is your only goaltender. It's as if you got down to the fourth round and said "dam we forgot about a goalie,...John Gibson 95"
I have a hard time believing the first goalie is in the fourth round

Pronman considers goalies to not be worth drafting early due to how hard it is to project them at 18.

Hey Corey, I was wondering what you like in Mark McNeil to put him in the top 10? Schiefele looks superficially comparable to him and you had him in the later part of the first round.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Pronman has Siemens so low. I have him as one of the best defenders to come out of the west in years. Guy is going to blow people away next year considering how much of a skinny kid he was this past year.

 

[Iain Fyffe]

I think that a lot of important circumstance is ignored by making that kind of declaration.

Obviously. But when you're generalizing to devise an objective projection system, it's what you need to do. If you worry about making adjustments for this player and that player based on his circumstances, these adjustments start to get very subjective, and then the system is just another subjective draft ranking. Another subjective draft ranking is not the point of the system.

You need to understand the purpose of the system before criticizing it. It will never be a perfect predictor of future performance and I will never claim that it is. It's another opinion on players, one that is 100% unaffected by a scout's personal perceptions or lack thereof.

One thing it does well is to examine player groups over time and compare how the scouts ranked them versus their actual performance. For instance, if you look at small forwards, the objective drafting system does a significantly better job at projecting their future values than NHL scouts did. This is an indication that scouts put too much emphasis on forward size. We can learn from this.

 

[Corey Pronman]

Pronman considers goalies to not be worth drafting early due to how hard it is to project them at 18.

That and the current market value of goaltenders.

Hey Corey, I was wondering what you like in Mark McNeil to put him in the top 10? Schiefele looks superficially comparable to him and you had him in the later part of the first round.

I think in a broad sense they're comparable as two big-body right handed centerman, but that's where it ends in my opinion. I have McNeill as a better skater, with better puck skills and a better shot. I don't think I have him drastically better in any area, but enough in each that it creates that kind of separation. McNeill in my opinion is one of the most complete prospects in the draft, and I can't say Scheifele is complete in the same sense (have his skating as below-average). The two have different offensive projections and based on what I've seen of Scheifele his Under-18's was a slight outlier performance-wise more than an indicator of his true talent.

That's not to say I don't think Scheifele has offensive projection, rather he could be an average scorer at the NHL level (and that's a good thing), but I see McNeill as a good couple of notches beyond that with excellent defensive contribution.

 

[pooleboy]

Some of the ones I saw and said "what??" :

35. Tomas Jurco, Right Wing, Saint John-QMJHL
41. Victor Rask, Center, Leksand-Allsvenskan
47. Stefan Noesen, Left Wing, Plymouth-OHL
56. Seth Ambroz, Right Wing, Omaha-USHL
62. Duncan Siemens, Defense, Saskatoon-WHL*
68. Oscar Klefbom, Defense, Farjestad-SEL
78. Tyler Biggs, Right Wing, USA Under-18-USHL*

lol look at #13... (ladeskog)

 

[Mathletic]

31-40 now available

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=968

 

[Qvist]

shocking list.

surprisingly it looks completely biased towards europeans.
definitely a bold one

What, with Larsson at 5, Landeskog at 13, Armia at 15 and no Klefbom in the top 60?

 

[Qvist]

Siemens ranking/explanation should go up today/tonight, but I'll explain it briefly. I don't hate Duncan Siemens, despite what the ranking may indicate. I think he's good at what he does, above-average skater for a big man, will move with pros well, really good physical projection and physical game, and impressive for a few days removed from the 2012 draft. However I highly emphasize puck possession skills as stated in the introduction in detail, and I think Duncan lacks those skills.

He got a lot of points, but based on observation and scouts I talked to his production was a result of a lot of 2nd assists, first passes up etc. and some things that can be attributed to team effects and random chance as opposed to true talent puck-moving skills and I don't think he will be able to move the puck at the next level. I'm also not a fan of his defensive game asides from the fact he can knock forwards off the puck so while I like his upside/physical/athletic qualities, I don't think the necessary components of an NHL defenseman are quite there in terms of controlling the play, keeping the puck out of his zone and keeping it in the opponent's end.

When I read the arguments for Siemens, it somewhat puts me in mind of what was said of Brad Ference in his draft year. Viable comparison?

 

[Lier X Agerate]

No Sefton? He'll be a 3rd rounder.

 

[Aaron Vickers]

For what its worth, Lorne Molleken told me he sees a lot of Rhett Warrener in Siemens. Mind you he's talking about when he coached Rhett in the early 90's.

 

[Mathletic]

16-20

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=973

11-15

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=974

6-10

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=975